Premier League - Chelsea v Manchester United

When this game was postponed in December due to heavy snow, it could easily have been the most important game of the season in the Premier League, and it would not have been overhyping it to call it a title decider. How things have changed. 10 weeks later, and Chelsea’s deficit to leaders Manchester United has widened from 3 to 15 points, and they are out of the FA Cup, and almost certainly the title race.

Since coming from behind in impressive style against Sunderland, Chelsea have failed to win in the league, losing 1-0 to Liverpool, drawing 0-0 at Fulham, and being held over 90 and 120 minutes by Everton before going out on penalties. It’s also worth remembering that Fulham would have won but for Clint Dempsey’s prolificacy in the late stages, missing a penalty and then failing to stretch his leg out for a perfect cross.

Nicholas Ankelka - Impressive against Copenhagen

They were much better against Everton in the FA and had a grip of the game, but only at times it must be remembered and they were given an awful lot to think about in normal and extra time by David Moyes’s resurgent toffees.

The one big positive however, is their extremely easy 2-0 win over Copenhagen in Denmark, a result which will give the Blues a much need confidence booster. For all that Copenhagen gave the game away to Chelsea, there were many positive signs, including good games for Fernando Torres (who was unlucky not to score) as well Nicholas Anelka, as both players responded to recent poor form with a performance of hunger and desire, which was also epitomised by their team-mates.

Other positives include Frank Lampard, who comes into this game with five goals in his last nine games, and Petr Cech, whose solid form all season (being one of only three or four players who can boast no major mistakes) means that Chelsea have kept clean sheets in eight of their 12 league matches at home this season.

United’s late form hasn’t set the house on fire but their typical resilience has led to wins over Aston Villa, Manchester City (thanks a sensational Wayne Rooney overhead kick) Crawley Town (in a non event, thanks to a second string side), and Wigan in a very impressive 4-0 romp.

The 4-0 score line did flatter United a bit considering Wigan had two wonderful opportunities either side of the opener from Hernandez and were only denied by the brilliant Edwin van der Sar, but they won’t care and it’s timely that they put only their fourth league win of the season on the board before this game, with the Wigan win also being the first time this season they have won by more than one goal away from home in the league.

While the absence of Rio Ferdinand isn’t helpful for United, Chris Smalling has improved with every game and he looked more assured in the recent games against Marseille and Wigan. He’ll have a lot more on his plate tonight but he seems to be developing quickly into his role alongside Vidic and isn’t the weak link some see him out to be.

Darren Fletcher - Key to stopping Essien and Lampard

Nani, with his pace and power, will be the vital outlet for United in attack. The Portuguese winger sits atop the Premier League assists charts and has now entered double digits on the goalscoring front too. The services he’s performed this season have filled a massive hole for United in the shape of Antonio Valencia. The ever energetic Darren Fletcher and experienced Paul Scholes are also reassuring choices for those who fancy the chances of Manchester United, as they’re the ideal duo to keep tabs on Essien and Lampard, who will be buoyed by how their impressive game against Copenhagen; They won’t find anything nearly as easy here though.

As impressive as Chelsea were against Copenhagen, there’s been an overreaction to the ease of that win by making a a side that have only won two of their last 6 games 11/10 favourites against the league leaders. I’m seriously tempted to back Manchester United to strike a killer blow – 5/2 is more than fair for a team of their quality to take advantage of a form slump – But their away record (particularly against the big teams) is just enough to put me off and I think that a draw’s the solid option. There are some other tempting options (I notice that Boylesports will give you 10/11 about the first goal being after 27 minutes, a perfectly fair offer given how tight the game will be) but back no goalscorer at 10/1 to make a killing if the game’s a bore draw.

Advice

2 pts Chelsea and Manchester United to draw (23/10 general)

1 pt No Goalscorer (10/1 William Hill)

6 Nations - Scotland v Ireland

 Scotland try to stave of the threat of the wooden spoon against Ireland, but will really have their work cut out on Sunday.

Scotland had much the best form of a home nation side in the Autumn, managing to beat South Africa and Australia. They started well this year, as losing in France is no disgrace - and they could take credit for scoring three tries in Paris - but their performance in defeat against Wales last time out was really poor. Scoring just six points, and failing to capitalise on a six-minute spell when their visitors were down to 13 men, wasn't good and Ireland are a much stronger test.

There are four changes in the backs, with Chris Paterson, Sean Lamont, Ruaridh Jackson and Mike Blair named to start. The half-backs Rory Lawson and Dan Parks drop to the bench along with Nathan Hines and Richie Vernon as replacments. 

Ireland proved that they can get away with being in very poor form against Italy, where they tried and failed to outmuscle the Italian forwards and failed to really get an attacking game going (plenty of missed chances) before landing the spoils late on.

Ireland wing Keith Earls with one of many chances against France 

Their best performance this year has been in defeat against France, in a game that they should have won. The Irish paid heavily for indiscipline as five penalties by Morgan Parra and one by his replacement Dimitri Yachvili proved to be the difference. To lose by three points was heartbreaking but Ireland's error count was enough to make you weep. That said, they showed miles more creatively than Scotland against Wales and will fancy their chances here, with Scotland’s team changes not sure to work the trick, and Dan Parkes missing out only hurts their chances.  

It’s obvious to say this but Ireland are the clear pick here following on from a brave defeat against France and while Scotland may be rejuvenated by the underdog status, the absence of Dan Parkes is a crucial blow for their hopes, as there are few more reliable men to take advantage of Ireland’s shoddy error count. Ireland shouldn’t have lost against France and were punished by a high class opponent for indiscipline but will be harder to beat here. 

Advice 

3 pts Ireland -5 v Scotland (10/11 Paddy Power)

Cricket World Cup - India v England

We’re in full flow now, as one of the biggest games of the Cricket World Cup takes place as tournament favourites India take on England at the Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru.

There are several reasons why India will fancy their chances in their second World Cup match, against England. Home conditions will almost certainly help them, as should the fact that they have, on paper at least, a far more power-packed batting line-up.

Virender Sehwag - One of many brilliant Indian batsmen

 Their win against Bangladesh was a simple summing up of why they can win this World Cup – Truly awesome batting. India’s 370 against Bangladesh ended the game as contest, no mean feat playing against the co – hosts in the Shere Bangla Stadium. Sehwag (who scored 175) added 203 with Virat Kohli, who scored 100 not out on his World Cup debut as India racked up 370-4, and all of the above mentioned will fancy their chances of big scores again. Against some less than impressive England bowling (should they play anywhere near as badly as they did against the Netherlands) that’s a fearsome batting attack.

India’s bowling however, is less than impressive for a team of their all-round quality. Tamim Iqubal and Imrul Kayes made 56 before the loss of the first wicket and there were gaps of at least 30 runs between the next three wickets (2-129, 3-188 & 4-234), and for all that Bangladesh were taken out of the equation a score of 287 looks even bigger now Ireland gave them a huge scare on home turf on Friday.

Given their poor batting form in the Australia, it must be worrying that England’s bowling attack (along with their fielding, a strong point of theirs) looked truly awful. Even with a flat pitch and the expert hitting of Ryan Ten Doeschate, they managed to let Holland score 292 runs (even giving credit to the Dutch they got way too many chances). James Anderson seemed to have lost his bearings towards the end of the Dutch innings, as he and Stuart Broad bowled way too short, way too often.  The one key man for England is the world’s best spinner, Graeme Swann. He had a superb economy rate of 2.50 from his 10 overs when all around him were being hit across the park and he’s thoroughly capable of testing India again.

 Given that it’s been a weak point for a while, especially in ODI’s, it’ll have been a relief for Andy Flower than English batting saved the team's blushes against the Netherlands. Thanks to composed half-centuries from Andrew Strauss (who made 88) and Jonathan Trott, along with good solid double future knocks from Bell, Pietersen, Collingwood and Bopara to chase down the target. A similar, if not better performance will be needed against India but people shouldn’t be dismissive of the top and middle order, especially if a good start is made.

In what’s likely to turn into an all-out batting attack, India are the confident choice to see off England in a game which should play to their strengths.  They showed real class in hitting 370 against Bangladesh while England struggled to beat the Netherlands thanks to an abject bowling display, and while England shouldn’t be written off against a bowling attack lacking in firepower, there are more than enough weaknesses for India to use home advantage to gain a clear win.

Advice

3 pts India Highest Opening Partnership (4/5 Boylesports)

2 pts India -3.5 Wickets/29.5 Runs (5/6 Sportingbet)

2 pts Grame Swann top England Bowler (3/1 Sportingbet) 

6 Nations 2011 - England v France

C'est l'heure de la verité. Le Crunch. Or as many have put it, the title, or Grand Slam decider. Win this and England will fancy themselves to win the Grand Slam (even with the hurdle of Ireland in Dublin) and go onto yet another big showing in the World Cup. Certainly for France, victory in London will set up a likely Grand Slam defense as their remaining fixtures see them face Italy before hosting Wales.

Chris Ashton - England's main attacking force

England start as favourites after impressing against Wales and Italy, and with home advantage maybe rightly so. There are some impressive looking stats as well. They’ve won nine of their last 11 Six Nations matches at Twickenham,  scored 10 tries in their opening two games, four more than they managed in the whole of last year's championship, and have won more line-outs (24) and lost fewer (one) than any other nation in this year's championship.

There are some negative points though. A hapless Italy gave them 6 of their 10 tries and 9 of 24 line out in just one game at Twickenham last weekend, and while France’s defence has leaked 6 tries, changes are already in place to prevent such leakiness again. It’s also worth remebring that 3 of those tries came against Ireland, no disgrace in Dublin.

England, barring one knock could have done without, are in good shape. Lewis Moody will have to wait at least another fortnight to play any part in after a swollen knee ended his chances of featuring as a replacement. The only other change is a positive one in Andrew Sheridan, who missed that game with a bad back, presumably coming to help the scrum.

France are never a team for stability. There are recalls for the legendary  Sébastien Chabal, Vincent Clerc, and Dimitri Yachvili, which will need to work the trick as the excellent Maxmime Meddard failed an MRI scan to determine whether he could play, and the World – Class Morgan Parra has been left on the bench, presumably for a late impact.

They’ve been widely disregarded as second favourites but they’ve won two out of two and hard the hardest task of any team in the tournament so far in going to Lansdowne Road to play Ireland.  They were outscored three tries to 1 but showed how clinical they can be by taking 6 penalties, which was enough to edge the game.

The fact they only needed one try has been seen as a massive problem by some; But it shows how careful England will need to be if they are to win the game, and many will be breathing a sigh of relief that Meddard cannot play and that Parra is out.

All in all, while England are worthy favourites I can’t help but feel that there’s been an overreaction to the romp against Italy and can’t be backing them against a versatile and classy France side, especially at 1-2. Marc Livermont’s men didn’t impress many against Ireland 2 weeks ago but have made many changes to adapt to the test they'll get at Twickenham and may be able to come away from London with Grand Slam hopes intact. 

Advice

3 pts France to beat England (2/1 Boylesports, Sportingbet) 

6 Nations - Italy v Wales

On a massive weekend of 6 Nations Rugby, we have matches that may already decide the title, as we start with Italy v Wales in Rome.

Wales improved dramatically from a defeat to England (in which they played with credit) when trashing Scotland at Murrayfield 2 weeks ago.

James Hook - Asked to play in his third different position this tournament

Victory over the Scots was Wales' first win in nine, and they were worth every point. Wales had gone 20 internationals since they had last kept their tryline intact but here their determination in defence, where 4 players made double figure tackles as they drew clear of Scotland at Murrayfield (they were 16-0 up at Half time), which is no mean feat considering that both Australia and South Africa have fallen to defeats there in the past year.

They didn’t attack much in Scotland (not that they ever needed to) but if they feel the need to play high risk, high reward" running rugby they can call on Fly-half Stephen Jones and Flanker Sam Warbuton

After losing out in the dying minutes to Ireland in week one, Italy failed miserably to back up that encouraging performance at Twickenham next week, chasing shadows for most of the 80 minutes as they slumped to a 59-13 defeat.

As abysmal as they were last week, performances change a lot over the matches in this tournament and it’s not hard to see them back to their best at the Stadio Flaminio. Wales will be a much different animal to Ireland and Italy pushed them all the way here.

The Azzuri uncharacteristically lost nine of their own lineouts at Twickenham, and if they do anything close to the same it’s going to be a long afternoon; If they can grind Wales down however, another close match is a certainty.

Wales are still in the Six Nations equation (a home game against Ireland is next; Something which you wouldn’t put past this team) and come here on a mental high. They should win but as always, Italy will make life tough for the visiting team and odds of 10/11 about them giving 9 points don’t make much appeal, and there’s more value in backing them to win by 1-12 points, which is close to backing them on the handicap but offers much better value in a game that could easily become a tight contest. 

Advice 

1 pt Wales to win by 1-12 points against Italy (6/4 Paddy Power)

Adonis Juvenile Hurdle

1.55 Kempton

bettingsite.com Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO only)

Winner £12,086

Pick: Molotof (win)

Maoi Chinn Tire: Sprang the shock of the season when running away with listed hurdle at 200/1 at beginning of season; Failed to really confirm that form when running at Cheltenham last time out and vulnerable here.

Tonic Mellysse: Well bred recruit from France (half-sister to five winners including useful 2m hurdler Hulysse Royal) who holds useful form (one race, one win over hurdles); Joined top jumps yard and showed plenty of promise when beating useful rival at Pau, so assumed one of main players.

First Fandango: Unbeaten in two juvenile races, and both useful contests at Ffos Las and Ayr respectably; Can expect a good showing here although his form has been let down and he’s now got something to prove.

Kazzene: Looked like a very useful horse when winning well contested juvenile hurdle here on King George day, showing a good attitude to win despite jumping poorly; Jumping problems again cost him when third behind Supreme Novices’ Hurdle hope Sprinter Sacre at Ffos Las and has a big task here again.

Kumbeshwar: Put up a cracking debut hurdling performance to win at Sandown, given that he made up 12 lengths on useful long time leader from three out, having made mistakes on the way round; Lost little in defeat behind two Triumph Hurdle hopes last time although he’s got to run at least as well again here.

Mr Muddle: Deserving winner last time (despite) having bumped into two very good types at Plumpton; Didn’t need to reproduce best to win at Folkestone latest and this looks too tough.

Aikiedeau: Interesting French recruit for the Stewart family and the Rowe’s and while he can improve from debut/hurdling fourth at Pau earlier this year, he was well beaten by Tonic Mellysse and made jumping errors.

Lava Lamp: Won twice on the flat in staying contests fro Geoff Harker before moving for £20K to this yard; Pitched in at deep end here.

Moltof: Showed useful form when runner – up on both starts in French juvenile hurdles; Not sure what improvement can be expected for move to UK but comes from very strong yard for juveniles and is well treated at weights; May just be the pick.

Zarkanadar: The biggest talking horse in the field, being a half brother to unbeaten Arc winner Zarkava; Showed plenty of talent when finishing first, second and third on only three flat starts in France and major player here if properly ready (every chance; Only three weeks to Festival).

VERDICT: A truly compelling race in store, with a whole host of talking horses making their debut, the most anticipated of which is Zarkandar, a half brother to Zarkava. The concession of 11lbs that MOLOTOF gets from anticipated favourite Tonic Mellysse may make all the difference for the jockey/trainer combination that won this last year with an identical type.

Dovecote Novices' Hurdle 2011

3.35 Kempton

williamhill.com Dovecote Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £12,086

Pick: Celtus (win)

Points Of View: Won three on the bounce once fitted with a tongue tie in the summer but struggled since the better types have come out and has it all to do now.

Toubab: Has only had four starts for Paul Nicholls but has shown big promise , coming second to Triumph winner Soldatino and then fourth in Swinton Hurdle; Looked set to be a big player on the novice hurdle scene when cantering to win 4 runner novice hurdle but disappointing when put into Grade 1 company in Tolworth Hurdle last time; Should be happier back on better ground although has a lot to answer following a sub standard effort and the form of the Tolworth isn’t working out at all.

Sire De Grugy: Progressive sort who had little trouble brushing aside modest opposition at Fakenham and Folkestone the last twice; Well worth rise in class here although doubts over form and worthiness of performances in a handicapping sense.

Yourgonnabelucky: Been well beaten by both Solis and Al Ferof on both starts; Has a lot to do.

Celtus: Has won three out of four starts over hurdles in France, beating same rival on two of those occasions, and sealing latest win with a good jump at the last; Clearly well regarded and well up to making grade.

Empire Levant: Struggled for greenness when third behind useful pair in Titan De Sarti and Third Intention, and made amends quickly when fairly coasting home from Palawi at Doncaster; Very useful prospect.

Pullyourfingerout: Landed back-to-back juvenile hurdles in the autumn and better form again when second at Cheltenham; Lot more on his plate here tought and will find it hard making an impact.

VERDICT: Toubab should be happier on better ground and will be fancied to make amends for his lacklustre showing in the Tolworth Hurdle but that form’s not been working out and giving 9lbs to French import CELTUS will be a difficult task.

Racing Post Chase 2011

3.00 Kempton

Racing Post Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £57,010

Picks: Nacarat and Quinz (each/way)

Nacarat: Impressed on first foray into Grade 1 company when nearly making all the running in the Melling Chase after a romp in the Racing Post chase; Went off boil since but has slowly came back into some sort of form afterwards and confirmed revival with easy Charlie Hall Chase win; Performed with credit when attempting to lead all the way in the Betfair Chase and trying same tactics in King George; Been aimed at this race all season and cracking chance.

Hey Big Spender: Was really going places last year and romped to wins at Newbury (over Fistral Beach) and here on Trials Day; Didn’t quite go on from that after unseating in the Jewson (Fell behind Mad Max at Aintree), so really good effort to win at Carlisle on his return; Was going well for a long way before tiring in the Hennessy (the fastest run major race of the season so far) and back to form when winning at Warwick last time and not discounted.

Tatenen: Seemingly revitalised for step up in trip and switch in yards when turning competitive handicap into a procession at Ascot last time out; Well worth the hike in ratings but now must handle massive mark and big step up in class.

Free World: Very much sort to come into his own as a chaser; Made encouraging return here in good race but well beaten last time and this trip not sure to suit, so others preferred.

Quinz: Has been transformed for decent going over fences this season, winning by 23 and 14 lengths respectively on his 2 starts this term; Lost nothing in defeat when third behind Time For Rupert at Cheltenham and can go close here.

Bakebenscher; Won 2 of 4 starts over fences last season and was always going to struggle in such a good race coming back from his stress fracture first time out this season; Ran creditably in both starts since, coming third behind two classy types at Cheltenham and giving 7lbs and beating to RSA Chase hope Definity at Exeter last time; Serious player after that effort but only had 13 days to recover and handicap is bigger test of jumping.

Crescent Island: Third in the Jewson two years ago; Reappeared in style with win but trip (never won over this distance), bounce factor, Temperament (idles badly when left clear) and track (hasn’t run here) are all reasons to oppose.

Razor Royale: Always been there or thereabouts at this level and just got better of Nacarat in this last season before good fourth in Scottish National; Not been in best form since but that forgiven if he’s been aimed at this race (presumably the case; not run since November).

Mount Oscar: Lightly raced for a 12 – y- o and impressed when winning a really competitive handicap chase at Newbury for the second year running; Harder to fancy after being thrashed by Fistral Beach last time.

Fistral Beach: Fell at first when favourite for this last year at the second, and has only run twice since (breathing op inbetween); That seemed to have done the trick when coming home clear of I’m A Legend at Wincaton and every chance here.

Piraya: Although tricky to win with, has probably matched his last winning form twice in defeat this season already; Well beaten by Tatenen at Ascot last time and seems set to be one of the also rans here.

Mostly Bob: Progressive novice who slammed opposition in very attractive style at Doncaster last time; Gets good racing weight even if up 11lbs in weights here and comes from stable with good record in the race (take no notice of fact that stable jockey has picked Quinz)

Sagalyrique: Bettered form for Alan King in winning his last two starts for McCain since being fitted with a tongue strap; Strongly fancied to make it a hat – trick here but far tougher opposition tempers enthusiasm, for all that yard are on a hot streak.

Polyfast: Won at the King George meeting last year before a winless period which ended last June (when he beat Franchoek by 10 lengths) before a poor run in the Summer at Market Rasen; Repeated that success over C&D here last time but step up in trip may stop his chances.

Door Boy: Won first two starts over fences, getting the better of Little Josh and Cappa Bleu at Aintree before winning comfortably giving away weight against vastly inferior opposition; Looked well beaten when falling in Jewson Novice’s Chase and while case can be made on some form, jumping has continually cracked under pressure; Pulled up in Paddy Power and while switch of tracks may help him he’s on a poor run of form.

Ringaroses: Hasn’t looked a natural over fences (or anywhere nearly as good as he was over hurdles) despite holding a 50% strike rate; Can be fancied on some form and usually finds for pressure but not fancied.

Safari Adventures: Career best when winning by 19 lengths at Aintree in the summer and has come back to that sort of form with second in good race at Cheltenham and again at Ayr; Game second to Polyfast last time and has it all to do to make mark in better race.

VERDICT: Given that NACARAT has been aimed just for this, it’s extremely encouraging hat he’s already won the Charlie Hall Chase this season and has come fourth in the King George and Betfair Chases. QUINZ is the biggest threat based on his excellent form this season, while favourite Fistral Beach holds excellent claims but so do many in this field. 

Pendil Novices Chase 2011

2.25 Kempton

Racing Post Weekender Pendil Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £13,340

Adams Island: Impressed with bold jumping wins at Uttoexter and Doncaster this season (solid third to RSA Chase hope Wymott in-between) so disappointing when he couldn’t make his mark off 136 in decent handicap chase at Ffos Las; Has a lot to do to beat useful horses here but small field will help him.

American Trilogy: Gained first win since County Hurdle Romp when coming home clear of 122 rated rival here last time (following two well below par efforts); Small field chase just what he needs so given plenty of respect.

Captain Chris: Made a big impression over hurdles last year (won twice here); Been second on all four  starts this season,  (three over fences) but twice against leading Arkle contenders (breathing hampered him at Cheltenham) ; Mistakes cost him victory at Sandown in strong contest last time out but should make amends before tilt at the Arkle.

VERDICT: An open goal for CAPTAIN CHRIS to get his head infront before the festival.  A case can be made that he’d have beaten Arkle favourite Medermit with a clearer round at Sandown last time and he faces nothing of that calibre here. 

Cricket World Cup - Day 6

Australia v New Zealand (4:30AM)

While both sides are coming off wins against lower-ranked sides, New Zealand routed their opponent brutally, while Australia managed to escape the consequences of a mediocre batting performance with some blistering pace bowling.

Starting with New Zealand’s there’s reason to believe that the Kenya performance might be “false”. Firstly, its’s cealr that Kenya are a fair way below Zimbabwe in terms of talent (a point which is open to debate specifically on rankings). And it’s also been proven by Kenya’s renewed showing against Pakistan that their bowlers and batsmen were nowhere near their best and overawed by the occasion.

Their batting line-up looks quite strong with the likes of Brendon McCullum, Martin Guptill, Jesse Ryder, Ross Taylor and Scott Styris to call upon.

Their bowlers will be full of confidence after a match full of gifts against Kenya. Tim Southee helped himself to three cheap wickets, while Jacob Oram also picked up three in three overs and Hamish Bennett did the rest. However things are likely to be different a very high scoring pitch, against a better attack. It remains to be seen how New Zeland’s quick bowlers handle this track while a lot will depend on spinners Vettori and Nathan McCullum.

The injury to Michael Hussey leaves a huge gaping hole in the middle-order for Australia, just when they didn’t need it after a poor batting display against Zimbabwe. Watson apart, he is Australia’s best batsman and arguably one of the best in the game.

Shane Watson - Likely to have big say in game.

As it stands, much depends on Ponting's form at No. 3. He got couple of hard-earned fifties in the warm-up games and looked to be slowly progressing against Zimbabwe, but his running mistakes have been crucial and an error in that department could curtail a big knock, which is coming based on recent history (Ponting has scored 3 half centuries in two of his last three against New Zealand and averages 46.60 against the Black Caps).  

The man to save Australia is Shane Watson, if they should need saving that is. His 78 against Zimbabwe saved quite a few red faces and he’ll fancy himself to do the same here, having a good record on these pitches of late. He can do well again.

Mitchell Johnson has had a mixed summer, dropped for a test during the Ashes for some abysmally poor and wayward bowling, before returning strongly in Perth with a match-winning performance. He was considerably better during the ODIs and took 4 wickets as the pacemen got the Aussies out of a hole in their opening game.

The main man though, is Brett Lee. His pace has barely dropped at all since his heyday and he has all the guile and experience of a long international career to fall back on. He ripped England apart in the recent series, taking 16 wickets in total and is the one to fear here, having gotten the best out of these pitches already.

All in all, a tight and high scoring game can be expected here but the gut feeling is to side with Australia, who have to improve from their opening game but can do so against a New Zealand side who didn’t answer many questions in a farcical opening game against Kenya.

Advice

2 pts Australia -3.5 Wickets/25.5 Runs (5/6 Sportingbet)

1 pt Shane Watson to score over 30.5 runs (5/6 Ladbrokes) 

Bangladesh v Ireland (9AM) 

Not a clash of the heavyweights seeing as both sides are associates, but one not to be sniffed at given what’s at stake and the rising profile of both teams.

Bangladesh know it will be near impossible to make the quarter-finals, something the passionate fans and the team want desperately, if they fail to beat Ireland. Ireland also harbour ambitions of making the next round, and they know this is their best chance of beating a Test side.

Tamim Iqbal - One of the key men for Bangladesh

They boast two high class players in explosive opener Tamim Iqbal and canny all-rounder Shakib Al Hasan and Their latest two series have seen 4-0 and 3-1 home wins over New Zealand and Zimbabwe respectively and they currently have two bowlers in the ODI world top five. Here at the Sher-e-Bangla stadium they’re a tough nut to crack and they made 283 against India, and a similar performance will with the bat will put them in the driving seat, with Tamim Iqubal looking to bulid on a

The bowling wasn’t so great against India, however. Shakib Al Hasan, having gone at 6.10 runs per over and picked up one wicket, was the second best bowler, with only Rubel Hossain going lower. That kind of bowling must be improved but Ireland’s batting line up will hold no fears and in the end it was a massive effort to only lose by 83 runs.

Despite carrying the minnows tag, Ireland will not be taken lightly after their surprising performance in the previous edition in the Carribean. The 2007 team that was led by Trent Johnston caused a major upset when they beat Pakistan, which eventually led to the Asian Giants being eliminated from the tournament.

Ireland opener William Porterfield has been in sublime touch with the bat over the warm-ups played over the last couple of weeks, scoring two fifties. Ed Joyce, who played for England four years ago, has injected his professionalism into the no. 3 spot, and has been scoring freely over the last four games, with two 40s and a 50, highlighting the good form that Ireland take. In their warm ups,  Ireland stayed close on New Zealand’s heels as they attempted to chase down a massive 311 in Nagpur, before forcing a win against a Zimbabwe side that gave one of the best performances by an associate against Australia in both the batting and bowling departments.

Ireland’s bowling hopes rest on Boyd Rankin, who’s been put under wraps for the last few games in a  medium-pace-heavy Irish attack. Kevin O’ Brien can handle the new ball while Trent Johnston and Alex Cusack have been steady and could use the slower ball if the irrational wicket turns in his favour.

In what could be an excellent match, all the appeal lies with Bangladesh after their valiant fight against India in the tournament opener, and their score of 287 was excellent given the quality of opposition they were against. Clearly they’ll need to tidy up their bowling quite a bit against a useful batting side in Ireland but they’re the clear pick on home turf.

Advice

2 pts Bangladesh -3.5 Wickets/30.5 Runs (5/6 Sportingbet)

2 pts Tamim Iqbal to score more than 29.5 runs (5/6 Ladbrokes) 

Today's Pointers - Europa League 24th Feb

Back onto the Europa League following a largely successful week with the Cricket World Cup. Obviously last night didn't go to plan with the football betting, but Inter's profligacy cost me as far as I'm concerned. 

As I said before the first leg, Liverpool may be short of attacking option going into their second leg against Sparta Prague.  Luis Suarez is ineligible and Steven Gerrard is ruled out through a groin injury, so two of their most crucial players are already out, while Andy Carroll has yet to gain full fitness.

                                                                     

Steven Gerrard - Set to be absent.

Liverpool went into the first leg playing over-cautiously and managing to carve out a dull goalless draw at the Generali Arena. They did even look shaky at times, Sparta having carved out a few chances themselves.  Prague looked to get at Liverpool down the flanks and had some success, although not too much considering they were at home.

Their team today should be stronger though. Martin Kelly and Martin Skrtel could return having been left out in Prague, with Glen Johnson also a possible starter to give the game life down the left wing.

For all that Liverpool are expected to go through comfortably they may really have to work for it against a Spartak side with nothing to lose (and extra fitness thanks to the first leg) and the Boylesports offer of the first goal being after 27 minutes looks good, with the William Hill offer being just too long at 31 minutes. Both would have been successful in four of the last 5 Liverpool games. Extrabet are also willing to give 5/2 that the first goal will be in the second half and that makes a lot of appeal.

Given the record of the two teams the same bet makes a lot of appeal in the Man City – Aris game. Aris have won only one of their last six league games and didn’t do much going forward against Manchester City at home, which was their only real chance of taking a hand in the tie. Don’t get me wrong, they could easily take a big hand in the tie given the chance, but it’s harder to see them doing that at Eastlands than Greece.

Despite winning 5 at the weekend, City weren’t that impressive. County nearly took the lead 60 seconds in as Joe Hart left the goal open, having missed one of several impressive deliveries given by Notts County.

From the resulting corner, centre-back Krystian Pearce then headed just over the bar from six yards out and several more chance followed, with a fierce shot on 10 minutes and they nearly scored after 20, a cracking shot blasting off the post. They could take a while to warm up against a solid Aris side that won’t give much away, so Paddy Power’s offer of just 22 minutes for the first goal makes a smashing pick.

In the other games, an out of form Rangers or Lisbon makes no appeal, while Bayer Leverkusen won’t give much thought holding a 4 goal lead, so back Twente, who held Inter, Bremen, and Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League, to beat Rubin Kazan for the second time at home following a clear cut win in the first leg.

Advice

2 pts After 27th Minute - Liverpool v Sparta Prague: Time Of First Goal (10/11 Boylesports)

2 pts After 22nd Minute - Man City v Aris: Time Of First Goal (10/11 Paddy Power)

2 pts First goal in 2nd half of Liverpool v Sparta (5/2 Extrabet)

2 pts win Twente to beat Rubin Kazan (10/11 General) 

Crciket World Cup - South Africa v West Indies

The first big match up of the Cricket World Cup commences on Thursday with South Africa taking on the West Indies.

The form that South Africa take into the tournament is the strongest they could have realistically hoped for. A 3-2 home win over India showed us all that’s there to like about Grame Smith’s side, with South Africa won both their warm up games, including a comprehensive defeat of Australia. South Africa have also won their last 11 games against the West Indies (the fact that it’s 3-2 on neutral venues is ignored here)

Amla - Has been given a generously short target by Ladbrokes

In the batting department, Jacuqes Kallis has returned to the squad in time to make the game and he showed some good form when he got on top of the Australian attack with an attacking 46 in the warm-up. De Villiers scored only 114 runs in the five matches against India recently but he might find things more to his liking having had a small break and abouncy pitch should not hold too many fears if at his best.

As far as bowling is concerned, South Africa are in nice shape.  Steyn, Morkel and Tsotsobe have all shown promise with the ball and their form is good going into the World Cup. They also have a cracking spinner in the shape of Imran Tahir. He has an impressive tally of wickets in his first class and list A matches and has already settled into the squad.

The pitch has a massive part to play here, with the Kotla Stadium having not hosted an international since December 2009 when a dangerous pitch forced the ODI between India and Sri Lanka to be abandoned after 23 overs. Despite those measures taken, the pitch should offer plenty of bounce and seam which will help bowlers on both sides.

The West Indies are not in such great form .They have slipped below Bangladesh in the ODI rankings to ninth spot following defeats to Canada and Ireland while losing to nil in Series against Australia, South Africa and Sri Lanka.

They’ve have the batting attack to go far here with Chris Gayle, Shiv Chanderpaul, Dwanye Bravo and Kieron Pollard to hit the runs. However injury problems will hit them hard with wicketkeeper-batsman Carlton Baugh and Adrian Barath being ruled out of the tournament with a hamstring injury each.

The fiery speedster from Barbados, Kemar Roach will spearhead the West Indian bowling attack along with the right handed medium pacer Ravi Rampaul. Roach and Dwayne Bravo should be able to use the pitch but the likes of Rampaul and Sulimann Benn may struggle for pace here.

To sum up, only seriously short prices have put me off backing the South Africans. They come here perfectly prepared, fit and with a pitch that should suit their two best bowlers. The West Indies are a talented side with explosive bursts but they’ve been in terrible form and the Proteas’ bowling attack can subdue the fiery big hitters, with the batsmen likely to make a solid start too.

Advice

3 pts fall of 1^st South African wicket at over 29.5 runs (5/6 Ladbrokes)

2 pts Hashim Amla to score over 28.5 runs (5/6 Ladbrokes) 

Today's Pointers - Doncaster and Fairyhouse 23rd Feb

The maiden hurdle (2.00) looks to be between Master Fiddle and Rya Star but I think both can be swerved. A fall two out when feeling to pinch behind Accorintolawrence doesn’t make Raya Star a 5/4 shot and while Master Fiddle will be much happier down in trip (tongue tie applied) he was well beaten in the end and can’t be backed with any real confidence.

In the Novice Chase (2.35) Beshabar was unlucky to be brought down (and jockey Christian Williams even unluckier to break both arms) and while he had been shoved along a lot he was coming into a clutch of useful prospects in a very strong novice chase at Cheltenham and he should get the job done in a small field before a possible RSA Chase tilt.

While the Juvenile Hurdle is an above average contest it may be one to stay away from as well. Moose Moran should have learn a lot from his hurdling debut at Sandown but he’ll need to jump better in an equally strong contest. City Ground and Emirani were very consistent on the flat and make their debuts in a strong race. The one that makes most appeal is Comedy Act, back on good ground, but a penalty stops me from suggesting him even at a big looking 9/2.

The veterans chase (3.40) offers a decent opportunity in WOGAN, who is fantastically unexposed for a 11 year old (has only had 10 starts over fences), has won twice at Doncaster (including the Killyglen Chase off only a 5lbs lower mark) , has won twice for today’s jockey, and should be at near peak form having already bumped into a very progressive horse in King Fontaine earlier this season. The ground’s of no real concern, as he’s won on good to soft. Dark Ben and Lothian Faclon would be my two main dangers.

In the 4.10 ACKERTAC may have the easier task he’s faced for some time. He was brought down when going really well behind Lush Life just two starts ago and his run in a far stronger race (the Lanzarote) can be thrown out at the Twiston Davies Yard were struggling for form and should be straighter now. I don’t think he’d need to do a lot to get seriously involved.

A strong card is run at Fairyhouse, where some good solid juveniles run in the Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle (grade 2) at 2.05. There’s no standout bet in the race but don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect Chaperoned to reverse form with Fearless Falcon if she races more prominently.

The Bobbyjo Chase (3.45) is probably the most significant race of the day, especially from an ante post perspective with 5 horses all strongly fancied for the Grand National set to run. If THE MINDNIGHT CLUB is a Grand National horse he’ll go very close today and the feeling is that’s the case, so he’s taken to reverse form with Siegemaster from the Thyestes. He’s a shortish price in such a strong race but we’re in safe hands with Paul Townend and Wille Mullins. One I just can’t ignore at a big price is BLUESEA CRACKER who ran a belter on her only chase start this season when fourth behind Midnight Chase, who’s now a widely touted Gold Cup Dark horse. Second Any Currency is a solid yardstick, while third Junior has a lot of useful form. She’s tuning up for April but is well worth a chance of this mark and same thing applied to all of the field today. Vic Venturi’s ready to bounce back to form but will need to in a big way. While Oscar Time’s been brought just for Sam Whaley Cohen and rates a serious threat.

Advice

2 pts win Wogan in the 3.40 Doncaster (7/4 Ladbrokes, Sportingbet, Stan James, Skybet)

1 pt each/way Ackertac (7/1 Sportingbet)

2 pts win The Midnight Club in the 3.45 Fairyhouse (7/4 general)

1 pt each/way Bluesea Cracker in the 3.45 Fairyhouse (14/1 VC Bet) 

Cricket World Cup - Pakistan v Kenya

After being annihilated by New Zealand in their group opener, minnows Kenya will look to atone for their poor performance when they face Pakistan in Hambantota, but a respite may not be coming until they face another associate.

The Kenyans, semifinalists at the 2003 edition, were simply unable to play New Zealand’s bowlers at Chepauk and were bowled out for 69, the fifth lowest total in World Cup history. Only three players- (opener Seren Waters, Collins Obuya and skipper Jimmy Kamande) made double figured and they come up against one of the world’s premier bowling attacks here.

Pakistan have Ahmed Shehzad and Mohammad Hafeez to open, and they should make a bold enough bid to launch Pakistan towards 300+ even on a pitch this slow (and remember that this is their kind of pitch), all with Misbah-ul-Haq, Younis Khan and Afridi to come later on.

The last five wickets fell for only 10 runs, with all wickets being taken by the Kiwis’ pace trio of Tim Southee, Hamish Bennett and Jacob Oram. This suggests that the pace bowlers are likely to have a field day and the two who look likely to take advantage are Shahid Afridi and Shoaib Aktar. 

Despite the massive gap between the two teams, Pakistan are unlikely to be complacent, a message echoed by Waqar Younis: “Everyone knows this is an important tournament so every match is important, whether the opponents are Kenya or Australia. We will play as if we are playing against any big team. We will not take anything lightly and go out to win every match."

All things considered, Pakistan may well be taking a big hand at the business end of this World Cup and they should be miles clear of a poor Kenya side. 

Advice

2 pts Shahid Afridi to bowl a maiden over (6/5 Blue Sq) 

2 pts Shaoib Aktar to bowl a maiden over (4/7 Blue Sq) 

Champions League Last 16 - Marseille v Manchester United, Inter v Bayern

On we roll with the Champions League bandwagon, this time going to France and possibly Italy, starting with Machester United travelling to Marseille. United’s away record in the Champions League makes for good reading. The Red Devils also possess the best defensive record in the competition having conceded just one goal in the Champions League so far this season. They also possess the best defensive record in the competition having conceded just one goal in the Champions League so far this season and they’ve been put in as heavy favourites to progress, understandably.

However United won’t have it all their own way. United have confirmed that seven players including Ryan Giggs and Rio Ferdinand have not travelled with the team for the clash, and they’ve missed Ferdinand badly of late, none more so than when they played Wolves at Molineux.

As far as I’m concerned the FA Cup game (in which Crawley played commendably) was nothing more than a second side outing for United, and I’d much rather look (from a form point of view) at their 2-1 win against City, where they were tight but deserving winners.

Before the tournament many fancied Marseille to go quite far, with their coach having taken Monaco to a final against Porto and also led them to Ligue 1 glory this season. And after a rocky start, they won 4 games on the bounce  including a 7-0 victory over MSK Zilina to secure the biggest away win in Champions League history, all topped off by showing how good they really are when beating Chelsea 1-0 thanks to a Brandao goal.

That’s not the only positive. They have won five of their last six in all competitions, are unbeaten at home in 12 matches and can expect to cause United a good few problems, especially given that their key defensive man Ferdinand is out. United’s away form looks impressive but they’ve struggled in the Premier League and this will be a tougher test than most, and it’s worth remembering that Valencia missed countless opportunities to beat them.

The one thing preventing me from backing Marseille with real confidence is injuries. Andre-Pierre Gignac will miss the game with a groin injury while Brandao and Loic Remy also failed to finish Friday’s 2-1 win over St Etienne. Remy may make the game, but Brandao looks unlikely to make the team. A tight game is surely in store and with no side a standout, backing Marsellie to get competitive with a one goal head start might be the best option.

Inter v Bayern Munich is the game of the last 16 as far as I’m concerned, with the two finalists from last year coming into the game in an impressive run of form, having won 5 out of their last 6 domestically, and whoever wins the tie will surely be big contenders for the trophy.

For what it’s worth, the “form” value of last year’s final looks pretty solid to me. Inter defeated Bayern Munich 2-0 without too many defensive scares at the Santiago Bernabeu. There’s the bonus that the same squad (largely) will play again. Both sides have gone down and then up in big ways since then, Inter having overthrown Rafa Benitez and getting back into the Scudetto race thanks to new manager Leonardo, and Bayern having done the same but without changing managers.

The one key man who will change the tie is Franck Ribery. You can guarantee that the final would not have been 2-0 if he had been allowed to play following red card in the semi-finals against Lyon. Inter’s weakness is their two wide full-backs: Maicon and Nagatomo. The form has already been smashed up by Gareth Bale twice this season (so either of Ribery or Robben will be fancying their chances) while the latter’s just not experienced enough.

The positives for Inter? In Javier Zanetti they have someone capable to putting the shackles on B Bastian Schweinsteiger, along with the reliable  Esteban Cambiasso and Thiago Motta to help ahcnor the midfield, while Eto’s form and workrate will allow him to press Anatoliy Tymoshchuk and Holger Badstuber, an area that’s not Bayern’s strongest.

Inter have an excellent home record in European competition with seven straight wins (which have included Barcelona and Chelsea) and might be worth backing to take a lead to the return leg.

Last week I recommended backing PORTO to beat Sevilla and although they made hard work of it, they came through at a good price in the end. They haven’t played since and will be fresher than Sevilla, who had to play Hercules on Sunday. As impressive as Sevilla were that day (Sevilla carved out the better chances all game and should have won by more) Hercules were only 2 points clear of the drop zone and things will be much harder against a fresh Porto in Portugal, so back the Portugese side to be too good.

Advice

1 pt Marseille +1 v Manchester United (4/6 Paddy Power, Bet365, Betfred)

2 pts Porto to beat Sevilla (4/5 William Hill, Betfred)

1 pt Inter to beat Bayern Munich (11/8 William Hill) 

Cricket World Cup - England v Holland

It is less than two years since England lost to Holland in the opening match of the World Twenty20 at Lord's – on the way to a poor showing as the tournament's hosts. They have since beaten the world in the shortest format, and until last month's ODI failures in Australia, they had not lost a series in any format of the game since September 2009. Oh, and did I mention a first overseas Ashes triumph in more than 20 years?

England do come here weary after a long winter, but there are positives. Stuart Broad, Grame Swann and James Anderson are all back in the side to face this squad and that should help against a decent side which has some big hitters in Ryan ten Doeschate, Alexei Kervezee and Bas Zuiderent.

Holland’s bowling is less than brilliant however and on a high scoring pitch (the two games here have seen three centuries and five half-centuries) England’s batsmen have a golden opportunity to get some big knocks before playing India in Bangalore.

Kevin Pietersen is never better than when he has a point to prove (a double century in the Ashes proving a point to say the least) while the likes of Strauss and Bell have more than enough class to put England firmly in control. While they should outclass their opponents, there’s no certainties here.

Advice

3 pts Ryan Den Toschate to outscore Tom Cooper (4/6 Blue Sq, 888Sport)

2 pts Alexei Kervezee to outscore Tom Cooper (11/10 Blue Sq) 

Cheltenham Festival Ante Post - Supreme Novices Hurdle

There’s a really key stat that could shape the Supreme Novices Hurdle: Only 6 favourites have won in the last 31 runnings and none in the last 6 years. Horses beaten by that stat include future Champion Hurdle winner Binocular, and worryingly for supporters of Cue Card the last two favourites beaten came from impressive wins in Champion Bumper of last season. That should worry supporters of Cue Card, although there are reasons to believe that things are different this year.


Both Cousin Vinny and Dunguib had serious jumping problems. Cousin Vinny went into the race having given away the Deloitte to Pandorama thanks to unseating, while Dunguib flattened at least 3 flights on the way to facile success in his pre – festival warm up. On the big day, both horses mentioned above failed to sort out their hurdling aberrations and that proved crucial, with a final flight error proving too much for Cousin Vinny and several sloppy jumps and an outside course proving too much for Dunguib.


Cue Card has shown a lot more good signs than bad though. A facile win first time out at Aintree was followed by a romp over Dunraven Storm that sent him into the 3/1 price he is now. An honourable defeat to Menorah (where the field ignoring pacemaker Nicene Creed cannot have helped his chance) didn’t do his prospects any harm. There’s a little doubt over the fact he hasn’t run this year , however, and the poor run of the International third Silviniaco Conti at Wincanton (admittedly not his true form) has knocked off the solid look to that race, as has the poor record of favourites. He’s the clear top rated pick in a race that has cut up a little for him, but is best used as a saver on the day.


As with every festival race, Nicky Henderson has a strong hand to play. The one that’s been getting the most attention is Sprinter Sacre. A dual bumper winner, he scored dirt when failing to see out his race against Frascati Park but has put that right when bolting up at Ffos Las and Ascot recently, impressing with his speed on both occasions. Many fancy him to take a big hand and given a strong gallop, he’ll be right there.

Sprint Son - Likely to improve having trashed a decent horse last time.

                                          
Another Henderson contender in SPIRIT SON has created a huge impression on his two British reappearances, hacking up in a weakish contest at Huntingdon before really showing his gears in a listed contest at Exeter, that has produced festival second in Najaf last year. He barely had to come out of second gear to thrash a first time out winner in Credre Bleu, who had previously won by 10 lengths on his debut. Better ground could bring the best out of him and he’s got excellent claims, regardless of who’s riding him. Nicky Henderson’s record is of no worry here – He’s gone close enough in the past few years
(Amaretto Rose and Binocular for example) and a lot of his horses have been ‘also rans’ so to speak of.


Minella Class would be a rightful contender if sent here, and while a lot of his win in the Tolworth can be attributed towards his ability to handle the testing ground, he’s won on good ground too. The worry would be that the race really isn’t working out from a form perspective and connections seem to be leaning towards the Neptune.


Megastar was an ante post pick for this race and he lost little in defeat givng 5lbs (and a good lead) to Rock On Ruby at Newbury, but it looks likely that any festival ambitions were put out when he was well beaten at Sandown in an ordinary race. The one thing I would say is that he wanted nothing but to go faster and when Jamie Moore finally lost the battle, all hope was gone. He’s not without a chance if getting the gallop he wants on good ground, but I feel that more would be needed anyway.


Zaidpour was considered unbeatable by some in Ireland, when he created a deep impression on his first two starts, routing the field by 12 lengths at Punchestown on debut, and building on that with even more impressive success in Royal Bond Novice Hurdle. Since then, the bubble has burst, with a poor round of jumping (also hanging when asked for his effort) when failing to reel in First Lieutenant in a sprint finish to the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle. He was backed again as if defeat was out of the question in the Deloitte, but was just brushed aside even more easily by Oscars Well, who romped home with ease. He didn’t travel at all well, having been the first big gun off the bridle and making hard work of going second. It’s worth remembering that the winner was a class act though, and he was a clear second from Ireland’s best novices. I’d expect to see a lot better for good ground and a fast pace, although I think he can be left alone unless his price drifts a bit (14/1 might be a bit on the big side).


So Young is quoted as short as 12’s after two extremely impressive wins in Ireland, the first coming when cruising home unchallenged by 16 lengths from Harpsy Cord at Leopardstown, and then following up without being pushed at Punchestown. He’s created a deep impression but looks more likely to go for the Neptune.


Al Ferof is one of two Pricewise horses for the race, and it’s easy to see him making a big impression. Following an indifferent start to life over hurdles, where he fell at Cheltenham before pulling too hard in the Challow (faded to finish third), he’s since bolted up in weak events at Taunton and Newbury. The form doesn’t mean much but clearly his racing attitude and jumping has improved a lot and a big run may be coming, although a contested lead may make life difficult for him.


Sam Winner and Rock On Ruby are the other Nicholls representatives prominent in the betting, but with the former (who was turned over in the Finale Juvenile at Chepstow) ready to go for the Triumph hurdle and the latter the Neptune, neither can be considered as ante-post selections at this point.


One horse with an excellent set of credentials may well be Recession Proof. He landed two of his first three starts over hurdles with his only defeat coming at Ascot when chasing home Dunraven Storm. The main reason he’s of interest for this race is the face he’s won the Totesport Trophy, which would be the closest replication as far as the race conditions are concerned towards this, which the hurly burly of a big field at a quick pace with a strong finish at the end. That, along with his still rather unexposed profile, makes him a very attractive proposition although I don’t rate the Tot Gold Trophy as much since the race went down to 15 runners and his win over Dunraven Storm (which he has already improved on) says he’s still got work to do.


Advice

2 pts each/way Sprit Son for Supreme Novices Hurdle (7/1 Bet365, Totesport, Paddy Power, Stan James)

Cricket World Cup - Specials

In the top bowlers market, I’m going to go to England first where I think there’s a stand out bet in the shape of Grame Swann to be top bowler in the England camp. With James Anderson not nearly as great a threat in limited-overs cricket as he is in Tests, and Stuart Broad having to prove he can handle the slower tracks, he looks an excellent bet to take many wickets against Ireland and Holland and England will need him to fire if they’re to make a big impact in the tournament. Also, take him to be the most economical bowler in the squad.

In the Australia camp, it’s clear that Brett Lee is the standout. His pace has barely dropped at all since his heyday and he has all the guile and experience of a long international career to fall back on. He ripped England apart in the recent series, taking 16 wickets in total and he’ll be hard to stop even on the sub continental pitches.

I’ve already told you how much I think of Dale Steyn, who alongside Brett Lee is one of the world’s best quicks, and it’s hard not to fancy him to be the top South Africa bowler. His line and length make him easily the most likely to stop the likes of India and Bangladesh from scoring big totals, while a weak England batting line up looks there for the taking.

Of the whole Canadian team, only Rizwan Cheema made the shortlist for this year's Indian Premier League auction and has kept many Canadian totals respectable with a few good knocks. He top scored against the Sri Lankans at the weekend and can be the top Canadian Batsman.

As far as the total Top Bowler market goes, there’s some tremendous value. For reasons already advised, Dale Steyn will surely be hard to beat in the top bowler markets, while there’s every reason to believe that Brett Lee can take a lot of wickets in a weak group B before being the focus of Australia’s batting attack as they push for a fourth straight win in tournament. Also, have a poke at Lasith Malinga to be there at the death as well.

Regarding the Top Batsman market, Virender Shewag’s 175 has essentially made it a very attractive handicap market, with prices of 11/4 still making a lot of appeal, seeing as he’s going to get plenty of chances to score similar totals.

There’s some big prices still knocking about Shane Watson to be top batsman, while Kumar Sangakkara made 726 runs from just 17 ODIs in 2010 at an average of almost 50 last year, and I see no reason why he can’t go very close.

Advice

3 pts Virender Shewag to be top batsman (7/2 Skybet, Sportingbet, Stan James)

1 pt each/way Shane Watson to be top batsman (20/1 Totesport, Boylesports)

1 pt each/way Kumar Sangakarra to be top batsman (16/1 Boyelsports)

2 pts each/way Dale Steyn to be top bowler (14/1 General)

2 pts each/way Brett Lee to be top bowler (25/1 Boylesports)

1 pt each/way Lasith Malinga to be top bowler (16/1 Bet365, Boylesports)

2 pts Dale Steyn to be top South Africa bowler (9/4 Boylesports)

2 pts Brett Lee to be top Australia bowler (11/4 Totesport)

3 pts Rizwan Cheema to be top Canadian Bowler (3/1 Bet365)

4 pts Graeme Swann to be most economical England Bowler (9/4 Stan James)

4 pts Graeme Swann to be top England Bowler (11/4 Stan James)

Champions League Last 16 - Copenhagen v Chelsea, Lyon v Real Madrid

After some pulsating ties last week, not least the 2-1 thriller between Arsenal and Barcelona, Champions League knockout football returns this week.

After their FA Cup exit, Chelsea now try and get an advantage in the first leg of their Champions League tie, but FC Copenhagen will prove no pushovers at home and can give the Blues a lot more trouble.

Since coming from behind in impressive style against Sunderland, Chelsea have failed to win, losing 1-0 to Liverpool, drawing 0-0 at Fulham, and being held over 90 and 120 minutes by Everton before going out on penalties. It’s also worth remembering that Fulham would have won but for Clint Dempsey’s prolificacy in the late stages, missing a penalty and them failing to stretch his leg out for a perfect cross.

They were much better against Everton and had a grip of the game, but only at times it must be remembered and they were given an awful lot to think about in normal and extra time by David Moyes’s resurgent toffees. Another clear theme that’s developing is that Chelsea are having much more of a stronghold in games at home rather than away, and the tougher the away trip then the harder they have it.

Most teams from pot one would have fancied their chances against FC Copenagen. The Danish champions and current runaway league leaders (who are 19 points ahead of second-placed Odense in the Danish Superliga at the halfway point of the season) are seen as the soft-touch in the draw. However they’ve already performed with credit in this year’s competition, beating Panathinaikos and Rubin Kazan at home while also holding Barcelona to a draw. They did well in the away leg too, having only lost 2-0 (even allowing for the dominance of the tournament favourites) and they may well have scored if Jacques Pinto had not whistled to put off Cesar Satin with the rebound from Name N’Doye’s volley at his mercy.

Many will point to a lack of a winter break but that does mean that they’ll be fresh while been working hard to get match-sharp and were impressive in beating Norway’s Rosenberg 5-0 in a friendly on Tuesday. If anyone thinks that they fail for firepower, their top two pairing of Dame N’Doye and Cesar Martin have scored 26 league goals this season.

Over in France, Lyon v Real Madrid might have been really interesting but for the arrival of Jose Mourinho, who has added a lot of defensive strength to side that has already had lots of attacking talent.

Lyon cannot be written off; The Stade Olympique is still one of the toughest places to go in Europe and memories of the 1-0 defeat followed by a 1-1 draw in Spain will be fresh in the minds of essentially the same team barring Ricardo Carvalho and Xabi Alonso. They've also steadied the ship at home and are now 3rd in Ligue 1, having trashed Nancy 4-0 last weekend.

The way to go might have have been an under 2.5 goals bet or Lyon on the handicap but given the impressive form that Madrid have shown this season they can’t be backed with any confidence and the game might be best left alone.

Advice

2 pts Copenhagen +1 v Chelsea (11/10 Paddy Power)

3 pts Copenhagen +2 v Chelsea (4/9 Sportingbet)