Stage 1 of the Tour Down Under isn’t one for the sprinters. The
stage, at just over 130kms, is visually one for sprinters but that has been
scuppered by the inclusion of Menglers’ Hill with only 15KM to go. At just
2.5km it’s not long on distance, but an average gradient of 7% it’ll be enough
to drop a lot of sprinters and is an open opportunity to punchers to launch
attacks to try and put rivals in early difficultly with what should be a
reduced sprint finish.
If the likes of Marcel Kittel and Andre Griepel can get over
the climb then they’ll be the ones to beat for the sprint, but with the
potential of the hill as a springboard it would be a surprise if attacks
weren’t launched and followed by some of the major GC contenders and
stagehunters there. One of those that has proven himself strong enough to
follow attacks over lumpy stages is Elia Viviani, who won a Stage of the
Criterium Du Dauphine last year that has a very similar profitle, landing the
yellow jersey for a day by staying with the leaders over the Category 2 Col du
Sentier after a day filled with up and downhill sections before putting his
speed to good use. We can only guess at his condition, but if in top form, he
can make 17/1 with Bet365 look generous.
In the overall preview we noted that Caleb Ewan and Julian
Alaphilippe could make an impact and today’s likely reduced sprint situation
could suit the pair of them down to the ground. A winner of the final Tour de
l’Avenir last year and ninth at the U23 Road Racing World Championships, he was
leading out Mark Renshaw before he lost his wheel before the end of the race;
Today could provide a more suitable opportunity for him. Caleb Ewan has very
similar results, having come fourth in the U23 World Road Championships, and
also taking the third place in the People’s Choice Classic – that having come
after the two German sprint giants – with arguably the ride of the day
considering the flat profile for one of the most talented young puncheurs in
Australian racing. He’s not going to spring a surprise on bookies today, being
7/1 favourite with Paddy Power, but at the same time those odds could look
generous if he’s in the same form.
Advice
1 pt each/way Caleb Ewan (7/1 Paddy Power)
1 pt each/way Elia Viviani (17/1 bet365)
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