Stage 2 of the Tour Down Under worked perfectly for us with
Diego Ulissi beating Simon Gerrans, giving us a 14/1 winner while extending
Gerrans’ lead over other key players in the race and leaving him in an
excellent position for the overall. Both of them should be thereabouts on
today’s crucial journey to Campbelltown, which incorporates the second most
severe climb of the race in Corkscrew Road. The actual climb is just over 2.5km
long but it’s severity and closeness to the finish – the peak tops out at just
over 10km to go before a fast downhill section and finish.
It’s a day that provides a good opportunity to try and put
Gerrans under extended pressure with the average gradient being nearly 9% and
sections of over 15% coming towards the end of the climb. However the nature of
the descent and the open, flat final few KM’s, means that speed may well be the
order of the day again and meaningful time gains will be hard; Much will come
down to tactics, as shown in the
The in form Cadel Evans – who has started this year in good
shape, taking a podium spot for the national road race, finishing well in the
bunch on stage 1 and then taking third yesterday – should enjoy the sharp climb
at Corkscrew and looks as likely as anyone to try something for all that a
sharp downhill finish may not be for him and he’s reliably upon dropping many, including
Ulissi and Gerrans, which I struggle to see happening despite the gradients
facing the riders today given the rapid descent.
Richie Porte in theory has a chance to gain some time today
but like Evans, may be outgunned by the quicker men based on the evidence of
yesterday, where he was unable to maintain an early bid for the win. Team Sky
have the power to set him up in a perfect position to go early, but his chances
of a win may rest on going solo and it’s hard to imagine anyone breaking away
completely. Geraint Thomas won last year, so we know he has the capabilities to
attack long, but he is clearly riding in support of Porte this week and beat a
much weaker field; It remains to be seen if he’s in top shape anyway.
Astana’s Francesco Gavazzi has been in fine form, finishing
sixth in Stage 1 and then coming fourth yesterday, and he is a tempting option
at 22’s with a pair of bookmakers, although he was comprehensively outsprinted
yesterday by the front pair, who get the vote to dominate proceedings once
again with the fast and furious finish sure to suit them most of those strong
enough to get over the climbs, we'll go for speed again.
Advice
1 pt win Simon Gerrans (11/4 Boylesports)
1 pt win Diego Ulissi (6/1 general)
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