Friday 29 October 2010

United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase

3.40 Ascot

United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Listed) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £56,330

Picks: From Dawn To Dusk (each/way), Take The Breeze (win)

Carruthers: Impressed with his easy front running victories as a novice, running creditably in RSA Chase when bad mistake put paid to his chances 3 out; Ran some excellent races last season in very high class races (fourth in Gold Cup, Second in Betfair Bowl) and should have every chance on return but was well beaten in similar race on return last season; Even higher in weights now.

Eric’s Charm: Likeable front runner who was better than ever last term despite advancing years, winning at Sandown and Newbury and being touted as a National contender in the process; Fell at first in National and slipped up at 5th when last seen, so lot on plate for seasonal return.

Can’t Buy Time: Very, very good when his jumping doesn’t let him down (Won 5 of last 9 completed starts, including valuable Cheltenham event); Faield to get round in GRAND National but will be close up with McCoy on top.

Possol: Has been aimed at Grand National but so talented over hurdles (came close third to Big Bucks last season at Aintree after fifth in Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle) that he bypassed that Target; Just as good over fences and could go well fresh if fit enough; Mark doesn’t allow a lot of leniency.

From Dawn To Dusk: Admirable but fragile sort (only 24 starts despite being 11 years old) who developed into a smart chaser last term, romping home on Grand National Day in 3 mile h’cap chase; Well beaten next time out in Cheltenham Grade 2 event (h’cap) but first 2 very useful and probably over the top; Yard in form and every chance.

Massini’s Maguire: Very talented but lightly raced when sent novice chasing with Phillip Hobbs; Achieved a lot in his novice season but only had one run last season (made several mistakes) and more needed on return for new yard, although he’s on a good mark if he jumps well and is fit.

Exmoor Ranger: Unexposed at beginning of last season and improved jumping helped him to take his form to a new level last season, winning at Newbury before being just edged out of things at Sandown by Monkerhostin; Looked to have no excuses on final start and personal best needed.

Take The Breeze: Done well since coming over from France and made really good start to life over fences, winning twice at Exeter and once at Newbury (again made all); seeimgly limitations exposed in Grade 1 Irish Arkle and also in Jewson Novices Handicap at the festival but ran very well in Mildmay at Aintree and well weighted to make his mark here.

Always Waining: Had been out of form for good while and took advantage of lenient mark when landing the Topham over the Grand National fences in April; Such good runs are few and far between, as he showed last time; Big player on his best.

Dover’s Hill: Fairly useful over both hurdles and fences; Didn’t need to do a lot to open his account with ease (from useful Hobbs horse Triggerman) last time, having fallen at last when looking sure to win last year; Will be fit and fresh for this, and must be hard to catch off effectively 10 stone (Sam Twiston Davies takes off 3lbs) if getting into rhythm so a very strong outsider.

Burren Legend: Posted 2 cracking efforts after a belated return in National Hunt Chase, winning good event at Newbury in late March and getting better of all but Ouzbeck at Cheltenham in April; Been given hike in weights since and this tougher, so will have work cut out.

Silmi: Has already make into a better chaser than hurdler, winning Listed event at Market Rasen in excellent style after wide margin Catterick win; Ground will suit but has been hiked in weights and stamina to prove.

Free World: Very much sort to come into his own as a chaser; Made encouraging return at Cheltenham earlier in month in big race and with that under his belt, worth a look from 5lbs out of the handicap.

VERDICT: Carruthers should have every chance on his peak form but he needed the run in a very similar race last year and is even higher in the weights. Massini’s Maguire showed a lot in his novice season but jumped terribly on his only run last season and is high enough in the weights, not to mention he will need the run, even if he’s fixed his fencing errors. FROM DAWN TO DUSK may be on a career high mark but romped home the last time he was over this trip, had excuses for his defeat to two good horses last season and is likely to be fit and well for this, with his yard firing well of late. TAKE THE BREEZE showed he could stay this trip when third in the Mildmay Novice’s Chase and is very leniently weighted off 145 considering he was well up to Graded class last season. Possol is a big player on peak form, while Can’t Buy Time can’t be ignored with McCoy on board. And last but not least, Dover’s Hill is the outsider to be on with a run under his belt and jumping issues fixed.

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