It’s only been 3 days into the Tour Down Under but we’ve
already had a classic example of the highs and lows of stages racing. Diego
Ulissi’s fantastic showing on Stage 2 gave us a big winner but Cadel Evans’s
long range attack and wide margin win on Corkscrew Hill yesterday has put him
well into the driving seat in terms of
the overall with only Old Willunga Hill. Made all the more galling by the fact
he received close consideration for both the overall and the stage, Evans’s win
puts him 12 seconds clear of Gerrans
with Old Willunga Hill set to decide the final placing, and it’s hard to put up
too much argument with odds of 4/11 based on the upcoming tests for all that
Gerrans isn’t out of things yet – the two look to have the measure of the rest
of the field with Richie Porte seemingly behind on fitness.
Today’s stage has a very complicated finished, as shown in
the profile directly above, but it should be a sprint finish with the fast teams
having only two realistic chances to take a win. This therefore, should be
between Marcel Kittel and Andre Griepel, with preference for Kittel after his
win over Greipel in the People’s Choice Classic despite starting his sprint
behind the German. Kittel opened a strong favourite with most firms and still
is, but Ladbrokes have taken an opposing view to most and have him at 6/4, the
biggest price for either of the two – a rare opportunity for him on a flat
sprint.
Of the bigger prices, pay attention to Steele Von Hoff, Elia
Viviani, and Caleb Ewan in particular given that Matt Goss doesn’t look to have
captured his form just right yet, although they are some way behind on the
front two if evidence is to be believed.
Advice
2 pts win Marcel Kittel (6/4 Ladbrokes)
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