The FA Cup is loved by the sporting public and football fans
up and down the country for it’s ability to provide the biggest of shocks in an
age where clubs now have more spending power than half their leagues combined
and where one player is paid more per week than the value of an entire team’s
entire starting eleven.
But that said, with the widening of the gaps between clubs
in the Premiership era, England’s biggest drew well away from the rest in this
competition; From 1996 until 2007 only four different teams won the
competition: Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. Things have
thankfully changed since, with Portsmouth and Wigan breaking the vice like grip
that Chelsea and Manchester City have had on the trophy with four wins in the
last 5 seasons between them.
However despite the notable resistances and big upsets, when
trying to find the winner of the big competition, one stat holds true and
demands more attention than any other.
Since the start of the Premiership only two sides from
outside the top division - Millwall
(2004) and Cardiff City (2008) -have reached the final and both were beaten;
And even more importantly, only 2 winners have been outside the top 9 at the
start of the third round; Condensed further that can be seen as only 2 teams
who won who would have been outside the top 6 at this time in the season.
So for a betting plan, it makes sense to have one of the
“Big 6” onside and then a potential outsider – and it would make sense for an
outsider – and they’re still well capable of reaching the final at huge odds –
to be from the Premiership as well, and the championship at most going from the
trends.
Manchester City, hot title favourites to regain their crown,
2011 winners and beaten finalists despite a total wreck of a season last year,
are worthy favourites at 5/1. The change in managers from Roberto Mancini to
Manuel Pellegrini has put all the emphasis on all out attacking football which
seems to be working the oracle away from the Etihad as a string of notable successes
away from home – not least a 3-2 win at Bayern Munich in the Champions League
with a side that had incorporated many changes – have lifted them to second in
the league. With one of the deepest squads in the league, including a four
forward rota of full internationals when all are fit, there’s plenty to like
about their chances, but the notable worry of how high this is on their
whishlist has to come into play. A strong side should put Blackburn out this
afternoon but to say the fixture list has not been kind is a massive
understatement and there’s a huge conflict of interest between this competition
and one of the main focuses of the club – the Champions League. The fourth
round is a few days before an away trip to Tottenham, one of City’s more difficult
Premier League tasks, but rounds 5 & 6 fall before their two ties against
Barcelona in the Champions League, the importance of which cannot be
understated. That’s three rounds where whole team changes could be made, and
while they could get through them all, there’s a lot of questions over 5/1.
The same questions surround Chelsea, who hold the best
recent record of any top side in the competition and are well capable of
landing yet another title. The presence of Jose Mourhinhio at the helm is a huge
boost to their chances and a raft of
midfield talent in theory augurs exceptionally well for their chances – the
likes of Juan Mata could be given a chance to star in this competition if he
stays over January while Willian, Kevin De Bryne, and Andre Schurrle all
started in a Capital One Cup loss to Sunderland – but the fifth round comes
before a home game against Everton and their Champions League first leg against
Galatasaray while a quarter final would be played close to the visit of
Tottenham. At 11/2 these are significant questions to be answered, while in
from Derby is one of the tougher championship ties they could’ve faced
Liverpool were beaten by both those sides over Christmas but
gave them the toughest challenges they’d faced in league at home all season and
have the look of a vastly improved side that can take aim at winning this
trophy for the first time since 2005.
Top at Christmas, there’s a gap between Liverpool and the
top three chasing the title but they put up a tremendous fight at City,
starting and finishing the game by far the stronger with Manuel Pellegrini’s
side on the ropes for most of the tie, and while they were comprehensively
outplayed in a first half burst from Chelsea they ended that tie on the front
foot too and were unlucky not to have taken a point with Howar Webb missing a
stonewall penalty to end the game. Both of those performances were in the same
vein as their 5-0 mauling of Tottenham and a far better showing than a limp 2-0
defeat at the Emirates in a much hyped game.
A desperate season last year is now a blessing in disguise,
with no Champions or Europa League football to distract them from anything but
the Premiership, and the competition makes obvious sense for Brendan Rodgers to
target with even a rather light squad that might be added to in the January
window.
Luis Suarez has stolen the headlines but Daniel Sturridge is
still to return and most of the first team played in a 1-0 defeat to Manchester
United in the league. They’ve remarkably drawn Oldham for the third straight
season but them coming to Anfield should see them put away readily. There’s the
small matter of the Merseyside Derby around the fourth round, but it would take
a very difficult draw to make us worried and Liverpool held up in fine style
over the hectic Christmas period; 8/1 appeals as the best value of the leading
lights in the Premiership with enough juice for each/way value given what can
happen in the final, as happened to Manchester City last year.
Manchester United are as short as 15/2 to give David Moyes a
massive boost in his first season at the helm but the huge midfield problems
there have been exposed without Sir Alex there and against bigger sides there
must be a worry given that Everton and Tottenham have already won at Old
Trafford; How much depth is in the squad is up for debate when rotation comes
around.
Rejuvenated by the resurgent Aaaron Ramsey and the arrival
of Mesut Ozil, Arsenal have had their best start to a season for some years and
if keeping up a level of form that sees them top of the table going into
today’s fixtures and qualifying from a Champions League group with Borussia
Dortmund and Napoli then there’s nothing to stop them from making a very bold
bid but a third round tie against Tottenham – even if at home – is as tricky as
they could have asked for and a long injury list and the fourth and fifth
rounds are surrounded by trips to Southampton and Bayern Munich – having had
Liverpool and Manchester United beforehand in successive league weeks.
Their north London rivals have the talent to be considered
but I would have to wait and see if they can get past Arsenal before taking
even 16’s; It remains to be seen if they find the fluency Sherwood has in the
Premiership when making changes if any and the fourth round would come just
before the visit of Manchester City.
Complete dedication from Roberto Martinez’s Everton would
make the 16’s dangled by Youwin absolutely massive – they’re 14’s elsewhere –
and a third round tie at Goodison v QPR shouldn’t be a problem but the lack of
depth around the first team is a worry given that they face Liverpool very
close to the fourth round in the league and while Martinez gave it his all with
Wigan last year the lure of a Champions league spot may be too bright.
There are a whole host of Premier League clubs (Crystal
Palace, Aston Villa, Sunderland, West Brom, West Ham, Norwich, and Fulham) with
serious issues who will be looking towards the bottom of the table nervously in
what has to be one of the biggest relegation races for years, but Southampton
should be nowhere near that mudslide at the end of the season and are my idea
of the kind of interesting outsiders that can go well into the competition. A
home tie against Burnley should be negotiable today and while there’s some draw
luck that will be needed (they are one of many with a tough Premiership game
around the fourth) if they can avoid the Premierships’ elite there’s nobody that
they cant’ beat in England and they have better depth than most in the league –
Ricky Lambert is starting their game against Burnley today - and could have a
good reason to target the trophy.
In that same category of Premiership clubs without any
notable distraction, Newcastle should be disappointed if they can’t go further
than last year, where a second string, injury hit side limped out at Brighton
in the third round. Manchester City had to work very hard to put them away in
the Capital One Cup and without the Europa League to distract them Alan
Pardew’s side have made life difficult for everyone they’ve played after a stuttering
start to the season and with a relatively full squad, can call upon very
experienced players for the competition.
Advice
2 pts each/way Liverpool (8/1 general)
1 pt each/way Southampton (25/1 general)
1 pt each/way Newcastle (33/1 general)
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