The first stage of our cycling season was a blowout for our
two choices but perfect for our major choice to land the Tour Down Under as
Simon Gerrans underlined his form, quality and tactical judgement to pip Andre
Greipel in a large, but reduced bunch sprint which did see some big names
dropped or in difficulty, including Marcel Kittel. Indeed, to see Griepel at
the finish might have surprised a few given the severity of the climb, but far
more surprising was to see Gerrans able to pip the German powerhouse, and take
10 bonus seconds and a huge advantage in the battle for the overall title.
Today is one of three stages that can be expected to shape the overall
classification, with the irregular lapped finish at Stirling, which is three
laps of a lumpy uphill circuit that has flat and climbing intersections.
There are three uphill parts in the final lap, with 2km at
4% before a flat half a kilometre levelling out to the hardest part of the
climb with a section of 6%, a descent, some small flat, and then the final
kilometre going uphill, although at 4% it’s a springboard for a race win more
than an actual attacking opportunity. Simon Gerrans didn’t suffer a moment’s
discomfort yesterday before being set up perfectly for a great sprint by Daryl
Impey. He beat Simon Gerrans through stamina and inch perfect timing. Today’s
stage looks even more made for him with the rolling finish and his
Orica-GreenEdge team should have him more than close enough to take full
advantage of such a profile. He’s a clear favourite by some margin, but on all
the vidence and worthy one on terrain pretty much handpicked and 3/1
The profile at a glance would see the sprinters out the back
door, but the route taking in only 3 laps of Stirling – half the 6 they took
last year when there were only 27 riders left in the Peloton – is likely to
play a big part; in 2012 when the field took 4 laps there were 64 left at the finish.
It’s not impossible to see the elite sprinters playing their
part in the finish although I would still much rather favourite the punchers
over the out and out fastmen. – even a slight uphill drag got the better of
Griepel for going too early yesterday. Andre Greipel’s second favourite but
might struggle to stay with the more powerful men going uphill in the last minute
and the same goes for all the outright sprinters.
Diego Ulissi ended 2013 by winning three uphill one day
races and has started this year in the same vein judged by his fourth place and
should enjoy today’s terrain even more, having proven himself quick enough to
lay up with the best yesterday.The 14/1 on him taking a place in the top three looks to be amongst the best value.
Cadel Evans looks to be a massive shot at 22/1 with Hills
with the rolling profile attractive for him and there’s also a temptation to
take a jab at Steele Von Hoff with a standout price of 40/1 being dangled by
Boylesports. Geraint Thomas also has to come into the reckoning with less laps
than the 6 that saw him lose out big time to Tom Jelte Slagter last year when he was exposed after laps.
Advice
2 pts win Simon Gerrans (3/1 Sportingbet)
1 pt each/way Diego Ulissi (14/1 Hills)
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