Tour Down Under 2014

It’s finally here. The new season of road racing is now officially here with the Tour Down Under, the first stage race of the year and the beginning of the UCI World Tour. With this and the Tour De San Luis coinciding, most of the world’s top names are in action with a big taster of things to come in the 40 day break between this weeks’ openers and Paris-Nice, the first feature stage race of the season.

As with any early season sporting event, guesswork has to be made with form but the route of the 6 stage event, combined with time bonuses for the winner, second and third at sprint points favours a certain kind of rider over others. Old Willunga Hill, with 3.5km at 7.5%, should prove to be the decisive factor yet again but stages 2 and 3 offer significant attacking opportunities for both punchers and climbers alike before the penultimate stage decider. With only one summit finish however and reduced bunch sprints likely to be the order of the day, speed is going to be the deciding factor in the event of a tight finish.

The guesswork for such an early season race includes motivation, fitness, form and leadership, but favourite Simon Gerrans seems to have very few of those question marks surrounding him and he can give the home fans something to cheer early on in the season. A winner of Stage 5 when breaking away with Tom Jelte Slagter last year, Gerrans looks to be leading the ever improving Orica Green-Edge team, who have quickly made a major impact at the highest level, winning the Team Time Trial and then having a man in the yellow jersey after Gerrans had just edged out Peter Sagan earlier that week.

 

Gerrans’s punchy style should be perfect for making gains at every opportunity and with Old Willunga Hill far too short for sustained pacesetting, it would be no surprise to see him able to get the drop on main rivals Cadel Evans and Richie Porte. Both of them ooze supreme quality and have been given a chance by a competitive and lumpy route, but in winning the Australian National Road Championships (left) he showed his clear pace edge over the pair and with an uber strong supporting cast including Michael Matthews, Daryl Impey, Simon Clarke and Luke Durbridge amongst others, he’s an obvious favourite to take the title.

Both Cadel Evans and Richie Porte’s presence adds tremendous lustre and both are obviously well capable of landing the Ochre jersey, but they were both comprehensively outspread by Gerrans at the finish of the national championships and it’s doubtful if they’ll have the speed edge on him when sprinting for points or a finish, while it’s hard to see him being dropped on the major ascents. Of the two, Porte makes more appeal and is a tempting each/way bet at 8/1 with the Giro as his main target.

Porte’s Sky teammate, Geraint Thomas, might also be worth chancing at 20/1. Thomas took the race by the scruff of the neck before falling apart on Old Willunga Hill and finishing third, but this year’s race gives more attacking opportunities for punchers such as him with climbs to Agaston, Stirling and Corkscrew Hill before Willunga, and the 20/1 is too tempting to ignore with his sprinting ability not in doubt for taking bonus seconds.

A member of the four-man group that broke clear off Old Willunga Hill last year Movistar’s Javier Moreno is an interesting shout despite being in a stronger field this time around, with one of the best sense of when to attack in the field, while Diego Ulissi should enjoy the one day race feel towards this given race too and may be worth chancing for one of the stages, while Rohan Dennis is interesting too leading the Garmin team, although none of them make too much appeal compared to the others. In terms of stage racing, watchout for the young pair pof Caleb Ewan, a young Australian rookine who made a big impression during the people’s classic and the national road race, and Julian Alaphilippe, who was in terrific shape during the people’s Choice Classic but found that Mark Renshaw lost his wheel before the finish. Look for them this week on the first

Advice

3 pts win Simon Gerrans (2/1 Ladbrokes)

1 pt each/way Richie Porte (8/1 Bet364)

1 pt each/way Geraint Thomas (20/1 Bet365)