The last weekend of football’s Champions League is usually a
rollercoaster from the first to the last minute but for the third season in a
row, the Heineken Cup’s last pool games have a cut and dry feel about them.Toulon, Munster, Toulouse, Leinster and Clermont Auvergne
all look set to top their groups, with the French sides having a fighting
chance at home quarter finals.
The only pool with something real to be resolved is
Ulster’s, where Mark Anscombe’s side face Leicester in a winner takes almost
all battle to top the pool. Ulster, though,
can lose and still qualify, although the potential for a home quarter-final is
a massive motivator.
Of those, Toulouse, have the easiest task, going to Italian
minnows Zebre, who have been roundly thrashed in every tie despite improving in
the Pro12 to the point where they’ve now gained their first win, including a 38-5
destruction in France. With a home quarter final potentially up for grabs and
one of the easiest games in the tournament, there should be nothing stopping Noves’s
side and with a full strength XV and motivation a plenty, a high score looks to
be in the offing. A handicap of 21 points looks on the generous side for the
Frenchmen and is taken with aplomb; although there is the slight risk of them
easing up while the job is done (something which is balanced out by the gulf in
class).
Saracens are given a similar handicap for their home game
against Connacht, but that is less tempting given the strong showings Pat Lam’s
side generally put in on the European stage and the hard game they gave the
hosts in Ireland.
French sides aren’t known for their travel prowess but
Glasgow’s below par run of form gives Toulon realistic chances of a potential
home quarter-final if they can impose themselves at Sctscoun today. Glasgow’s
European campaign has been letdown after letdown, with a pair of defeats to
Cardiff a nadir following a promising opening weekend showing at the Stade
Mayol when the visitors put plenty of style on show for all to see in one of the
games of the season for a visual feast. However they’ve failed to reach any of
the same heights since and now sit well off the pace in the Pro12 with Ulster 4
points ahead coming into the second half of the season, and While Toulon have
had some notable reverses, their class and forward power especially can come
through to beat a six point handicap today with motivation not lacking in any
supply. In the same pool, neither Cardiff nor Exeter appeal as an obvious bet.
As said before he feature game of the day is Leicester
taking on Ulster in a battle for winner takes all pool privileges and the
potential for a home quarter final, which would transform their potential
tournament chances given their home records in the knockout stages. Leciester’s
home record in Europe is without reproach amongst English sides, although a
raft of injures has left them weaker than usual, as reflected in an position of
5th in the Premiership – 18 points off the pace set by Saracens –
and Ulster have a very real chance of taking the win needed for a potential
Ravenhill quarter final. However there looks to be nothing between the sides
and while a start of 3 points is tempting for the raiders, the game doesn’t
offer much in terms. Montpellier are well capable of passing the 22 handicap
against Treviso but having been outed a long time ago,
Advice
3 pts Toulouse -21 (10/11 general)
1 pt Toulon -6 (10/11 general)
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