Thursday 17 May 2012

Today's Racing - 18th May 2012

York

1.30 -All over Baileys Jubilee - the best 2yo filly seen so far this season by a good way - while wondering just why Ingleby Royale is as big as 16/1, with the only possible reason I can think of being a switch from softish to good ground. The latter could be a great each/way or place bet but this is all about the favourite going 3-3. 

2.00 - Spifer's got the best form in the race and should come on again, but he might just need this a touch and the fact that he threw away two valuable handicaps by hanging last year is disconcerting. Caucus is shortish for this at just 6's, but he did impress on his return at Newmarket and ran as if he was about to fulfil the tries at group company that he'd been given last season when making good ground late. He looks to have a first rate chance of landing this, while War Poet also deserves respect along with many others.

2.30 - Harris Tweed has a big chance but so does Red Cadeux and the fact that Colour Vision broke the course record in the Sagaro underlines how well he ran with a penalty, so I'd be inclined to pick him over what looks like a pretty promising field. It should also be remembered that he'd proving himself in Group 1 company on his last two starts beforehand. Be Fablulous and Arctic Cosmos have big chances if finding their best form

Advice: 1 pt win Red Cadeux (11/4 general) 

3.00 - Laugh Out Loud needs to settle better but she's 3lbs better off with Lily's Angel having finished nearly level in the Guineas and gets the vote on that basis while Tactfully and Way Too Hot deserve some respect if taking that form literally. 

Not looked too deeply into the 3.35 but Master Bond gets a 5lbs claimer to ease his mark, which takes the eye from his good draw.

4.10 - This sees the NAP of the day in Sandusky, who I had down as an eyecatcher from his return at Newmarket. Held up out the back and very keen early while the race was run at a crawl for a comeptitve handicap he then went through the pack in the last two furlongs, threateneing to win before flattening out late on into fourth. With the first two having had a previous run this season, fitness only told in the last 100 yards and I'd like to think that he could reverse that form despite having started on a fairly leinent mark. He has a very wide draw to deal with, but the fact he gets further and won't lack for fitness should help him overcome that and the 11/10 about him making the 1st four appeals greatly, along with the 5/1 on him winning in generall. My saver would be Shamdarley, who didn't look quick enough for a mile at Doncaster when seventh in the Spring Mile but ought to enjoy the return to this trip and has a great draw in stall 5. 

Advice: 2 pts win Sandusky (5/1 general), 4 pts Sandusky to make 1st 4 (11/10 Paddy Power), 1 pt each/way Shamadarley (8/1 Bet Victor)




Nothing appeals at the prices in the last (4.45) from Key Gold, who would be the token each/way choice for the De Sousa/Johnson combo. Daneking could improve a lot from his third at Sandown but would need to if he's to justify his odds of just 7/2.

Newmarket 

3.55 - Danadana, another one of the eyecatchers from the Guineas meeting, looks to have an outstanding chance if settling better today. Previously fifth in a decent looking renewal of the King George handicap last season, he moved smoothly on the front end and was never off the bridle until 2 & 1/2 furlongs out, where fitness told. That was a good race and while this is competitive, he should be looking to go very well here. 

Advice: 1 pt each/way Danadana (9/1 Paddy Power)


Newbury


2.10 - Surprised that Starscope is going upto 10 furlongs instead of staying over a mile (sure that I'd heard she was going towards the Guineas) but she was strong at the finish in the 1,000 Guineas, will handle the cut, and comes from a team in storming form. Firdaws should turn into a good middle distance sort this year but the run might be crucial and as such Starcope gets the vote; I'd want to be judging Lacily on this run but the top two make more appeal.

Advice: 1 pt win Starscope (6/4 Boylesports)

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