An Aidan O’Brien trained, Racing Post Trophy winning son of
Montjeu who had the speed and class to win the 2,000 Guineas on his seasonal
debut, in the process completing a double that had been done only once in the
last 40 years. Sounds like a pretty strong
set of credentials to have heading into the Derby, and nobody can deny hot
favourite Camelot his position at the head of the market after his battling but
undeniably classy win in the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday.
The hype horse beforehand, he was sent off a very well
supported 15-8 favourite in the context of the race but many (including myself)
had been put off by his price, the poor record of Racing Post Trophy winners in
the race, and the significantly softening ground (confirmed by the race time),
but he belied those concerns to win by a neck from French Fifteen having come
from last to first, even more impressive given the ground and also how hard it
was for any horses to come from behind over the whole two days of the Guineas
meeting, something underlined by the 1,000 Guineas yesterday, where the next 5
apart from front running Homecoming Queen were all fairly front rank
throughought the race. Even just his
Guineas form would give him outstanding claims, but we all know that he’s
entitled to come on a lot for not only stepping up in trip, but also the run
(as all O’Brien horses seem to do, and most of his Guineas winners/runners as
well), so the 5/4 on the table is fair and would probably be a little shorter
if the race was to be run tomorrow.
The main problem with that is that it’s not tomorrow, it’s
more than three weeks away, and there’s still big trials at Chester, Lingfield,
York and Leopardstown to come (with just the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial and
the Dante having produced 7 of the winners since the turn of the century),
there’s the potential for some serious challengers to rubber stamp their
claims, along with the potential for Camelot’s price to grow a little if one’s
impressive enough; Taking that into account with the fact that he has to make
it one piece (godwilling), and the odds against can be left until the day.
This does leave us with some great each/way value though
given that it’s 14/1 bar Camelot, with even stablemates of the winner
generously priced. We’ll get to the one that I really like out of Coolmore
later on but the first pick is an obvious choice on form, yet one still
available at 16/1. French Fifteen was beaten only a head in the Guineas by the
5/4 favourite yet a colt that arguably could have beaten him in the Gran Criterium
last year is 16/1 with Ladbrokes. Andrew Balding’s Bonfire, an unlucky third in
the end of season Group 1 despite being blocked at least 3 times while the
winner made his challenge, had hinted at that ability when a ready winner of an
eight furlong Salisbury maiden beforehand, beating a next time out winner (set
to run in the Cheshire Oaks this week) with plenty in hand, and travelled as
well as anything when coming that unlucky third at the end of the season. As if the winner hasn’t franked the form
enough, the fourth (Learn) had been fourth in the Racing Post Trophy (albeit a
well beaten fourth), and he’s the got the scope for his price to contract
significantly if he wins the Dee Stakes this week.
The other horse that I want to have onside is Parish Hall (left) who I’ve seen as a Derby candidate ever since he won the Dewhurst in a tight
finish at the backend of last year. Many were willing to crab that form given
the bunched finish and the poor showings of Power and Bronterre in the Guineas
won’t have helped that mood either, but that should be no putoff for three
reasons. Being out of a Montjeu dam and
being sired by Teofilo (Bolger’s first Dewhurst winner who never made it to the
track at 3 but then again always shaped as if he’d stay further), there was no
way that he’d be a) suited by a slowly run speed test at 7 furlongs or b) Not
significantly better as a 3 year old, notably when stepping up in trip to 10
furlongs and above.
Secondly, while the three behind him have done nothing for
the form, Power was one of the speediest 2 year olds around beforehand and
clearly wasn’t right during the Guineas while Bronterre has disliked the soft
ground he’s met twice this season; If one was to rate the form through Trumpet
Major, a 5 length winner of the Craven under a penalty before coming a solid
fourth in the 2,000 Guineas on ground that you could say wouldn’t have suited
him, then the Dewhurst looks upto scratch and we have to remember that it was
his first real chance to shine as a 2 year old given his ground preferences
(he’d been sent off 20-1 after disappointing).
With his capacity to improve for a strongly run race over a trip on
breeding, not to mention the general improvement he should make at 3, he has to
be considered a strong contender at 20/1; Certainly he’s at least double his
price on merit.
There were several that took the eye here, although ones
that didn’t make the appeal the top two did for differing reasons. Akeed Mofeed
is in the right hands to prosper and the very fact that his trainer wanted to
run him in the Guineas shows that he’s highly rated, while it’s easy to forgive
his defeat in the Beresford Stakes to David Livingston at the end of last
season. At 14/1 it’s hard to find fault with him, although one can wait and
know they’ll still get a decent price after his reappearance run in either the
Derrinstown Stud Derby trial, and a more encouraging run from David Livingston
on his comeback (despite the feeling that he was bound to improve on that)
would have helped matters. Imperial Monarch has looked good in winning two
starts and is bred for the job - By a Derby winner (Galileo) out of a daughter of
a Derby winner (Slip Anchor) - but the Classic Trial he won at Sandown was a
Group 3 in name only and it’s impossible to tell whether he got an advantage
from being ridden so wide around the home turn; In any case, I’d want to see
him race on better ground than he previously has. Mandean looked a bit special in winning his
two starts last year and looks to be on course for the Dante, but one would
have to see him run there before backing given the poor record that Godolphin
have with French imports, while he wandered around a lot under pressure in the
Critérium de Saint-Cloud.
Kesampour won the Prix Greffulhe as expected but that was a
bunched finish and I think he’d need to improve on that again by some way to
come out on top here, while Noble Mission (as short as 14’s) is only a useful
prospect at this stage despite his Newmarket Listed win and Swedish Sailor, who
beat him by 5 lengths at Yarmouth with real ease last year, seems overpriced on
that basis. Of the two other French colts listed, Mandour has been beaten
already by Kesampour while Lyunair is yet to break his maiden (even though he
ran into a good sort in Hermival first time up). Mighty Ambition & Wortham
Heath probabaly won’t go, and Ekthiaam is in the Dante but need to be
supplemented, and connections seemed keener on Farhaan in today’s Racing Post.
7
Ernest Hemingway’s 10 length AW maiden win hinted at some
real raw ability and it’s interesting to see him mentioned for the Dante by
Aidan O’Brien. A good showing there would see his odds tumble although
Commander in Chief was the last to win this without racing at 2 and that form
(while he was vastly superior to his rivals) hasn’t worked out as one would
want. Apollo’s clearly highly rated if he’s in at this stage despite having run
only once, but I’d need to see him again.
Fencing, beaten easily by Camelot on both occasions while
shaping well in defeat, looks set to go to the French Derby, one would need to
see Encke once again to confirm he’s actually on target, Main Sequence and
Minimise Risk need to prove they’re group class (although both will get the
chance in midweek at Chester)
The most interesting
contender for me at Ballydoyle if he was sent would be *Daddy Long Legs, who
hasn’t handled the dirt in two tries there but has looked an extremely good
front running colt in the Royal Lodge and UAE Derby, and what’s even more
interesting is that Wrote – a colt he’s beaten twice easily already – is being
sent to the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, a race which he’s used for his two
Derby winners and plenty more of his best 3 year olds over middle distances.
Daddy Long Legs is clearly superior and while he doesn’t loo a likely runner,
he’s a name to remember for the season while having a little of the 370
generally available on Betfair, along with the 24 for a place.
Advice
1 pt each/way Bonfire (16/1 Ladbrokes)
1 pt each/way Parish Hall (20/1 Ladbrokes)
*Back to lay Daddy Long Legs at 374 on Betfair and 24 for a
place, or 33/1 general in hope that he’s aimed at the race
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