3.10 Newmarket
QIPCO 2000 Guineas Stakes (204th Running) (British Champions
Series) (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £213,513
Advice: 1 pt win, 1 pt each/way Power (11/1 Bet365, 9/1
Skybet*), 1 pt each/way French Fifteen (9/1 Skybet*)
* Skybet are paying 4 places for
1/4 the odds
Abtaal: Looked extremely useful when bolting up in
conditions contest at Fontainebleau and then followed that up with deeply
impressive Prix Thomas Bryon win, stretching clear from French Fifteen after
being asked to quicken off the front end; Expected to confirm that form once
again in the Prix Dejebel but got overturned by French Fifteen, having stumbled
slightly before keeping on well for second (not pushed hard); Should improve
from that and run a big race here.
Boomerang Bob: Out early as a 2yo, winning only minor event
at Kempton before being beaten at Windsor, but then ran two screamers in
Norfolk Stakes and Prix Du Bois; Best effort yet when second in the Greenham
behind Caspar Nestcher (allaying doubts about soft ground or stamina) but
behind Caspar Nestcher that day while Bronterre should improve a lot for that. 
Born To Sea: Illustriously bred (half-brother to Sea The
Stars out of Urban Sea); Made a smooth winning start in Listed company at the
Curragh before being turned over by Ballydoyle’s Nephrite in the Killavullan
Stakes after travelling very well, although he was found to be lame afterwards
(with possible knee problems); That form been let down by winner and doesn’t
looked strong from in behind, but should improve once again and has to be
considered.
Bronterre: Followed cosy debut win with destruction of solid
Listed field at Goodwood, with Gimcrack second Justineo left for dead (just
behind was solid Nayarra) and even better effort when fourth behind Parish Hall
(and also Power), while being just ahead of Trumpet Major in Dewhurst last
year; Disappointed at Newbury when behind Boomerang Bob and Caspar Nestcher but
far too keen that day and may not have handled the conditions despite his easy
ground Goodwood win; Can improve but needs more. 
Camelot: Impeccably bred colt who had giant reputation
before winning maiden at Leopardstown (bare off the bridle to do so at 1/3;
Race didn’t work out) but really sparked the flames when running out a deeply
impressive winner of the Racing Post Trophy, once again not coming off the
bridle in doing so (had Fencing well behind in third); Hot favourite for this
based on those factors and while it’s hard to argue with his potential and
class, there’s a lot more opposition in this race and he looked every inch a
Derby prospect at Doncaster; Ground also a potential problem while winners of
the Racing Post Trophy have a poor record (St Nicholas Abbey to name an example
just 2 years ago) so too short at prices.
Caspar Netscher: One of the stars of last season, winning
Gimcrack and Mille Reef Stakes after strong efforts in Listed/Group 3 races; Only
fifth and eighth in Middle Park Stakes & Breeders’ Cup respectively but got
blocked for a clear run at Newmarket and may have been feeling end of a long
season in America, something proven by his excellent effort when winning
Greenham at Newbury; Should come on for that and interesting here. 
Coupe De Ville: Though and consistent 2 year old, winning 4
times including valuable sales race when reversing form with stablemate
(previous Listed winner); Disappointing on seasonal reappearance when only
fifth in Sales race and this much harder so others preferred despite having had
a run under his belt. 
Fencing: Did well to come third on debut considering he was
slowly away and badly drawn in grand scheme of things at Newmarket, making
decent late progress behind taking winner; Even better when coming away late on
for convincing win in Washington Singer Stakes at Newbury; Very keen when no
match for Camelot in Racing Post Trophy (3rd); Likely that he’s a
bit better than that (dam won French Oaks, and may well make up into a better
horse now) and interesting here. 
French Fifteen: Rapidly progressive with racing last year,
improving from Listed win and 3 length defeat to Abtaal at Saint Cloud with
impressive Group 1 win in Criterium International on his final start last
season; That form compares favourably enough with Camleot given that he beat
Learn by 2 lengths with ease in the end, and reversed form with Abtaal in Prix
Dejebel over 7f; Has to be given an excellent chance. 
Hermival: Game winner over 1m at Saint Cloud on debut and
then followed that up with excellent staying on third in Prix Dejebel, a hugely
creditable second effort; Stable have won this with twice raced horse before in
Makfi so must be respected but didn’t look as if he was going to be reversing
that form with an extra furlong in France, and first two from that race
preferred. 
Power: One of the top 2 year olds of last season, losing
just twice in 6 races, with both being unlucky defeats from one angle, having
gone for home some way out in the Phenoix Stakes (led most of the way with two
others) before being collared late on the line, while a falsely run Dewhurst
combined with traffic problems saw him finish an unlucky second to Parish Hall;
Would have won over a mile that day and handles ease in the ground, so high on
list here. 
Ptolemaic: Major improvement on first two starts when
winning well at Musselbrugh before finishing second in Listed event; Even
better when fourth in Craven but too keen for own good and needs far more to
reverse that form here. 
Redact: Sharp 2yo, winning first two races by a total
winning distance of eight lengths before Super Sprint fourth; Bounced back from
disappointing effort to come a close half - length second to Caspar Nestcher
(getting 3lbs) and hard to see him reversing that form based on Free Handicap
fourth and best to look elsewhere. 
Red Duke: No improvement required on fairly strong
debut when winning maiden at Redcar but impressive in Superlative Stakes and
unlucky not to win again at Glorious Goodwood, when blocked for any sort of
run; Likely that slow gallop/penalty undid his challenge when second behind Trumpet
Major in the Champagne Sakes and not disgraced during the Dewhurst; Good return
when too wide to land a blow in UAE Derby on seasonal debut and worse horses
have won this but held on most form lines. 
Saigon: Saigon: Upset 4-9 chance (with pair well clear in
the closing stages) after sluggish start and even better when overhauling good
types at Newbury in style of a progressive sort; Not won since then but kept
very good company; Still a level below Group 1 class based on Middle Park
sixth. 
Talwar: Impressive when winning maiden and followed that
with gutsy Listed win at Ascot; Deeply impressive win at Sandown over 4 useful
rivals not followed up last year; Won nicely at Listed level last time but
second rated just 88 and held on most formlines despite enticing booking of
Frankie Dettori. 
Top Offer: Clearly very talented based on Newbury maiden win
last August, confirming high home reputation in style; Trainer rates him very
highly and been listed for this race since that day, but no horse won this off
1 run since Golan in 2001 (proven to be exceptional since) and has a huge
amount to prove with the form of his race not working out. 
Trumpet Major: Solid 2 year old, winning Champagne Stakes in
style having previously been beaten by Talwar twice (ground had cut in it) and
forced wider than he’d like in Dewhurst; Looked to have been a little improved
when running out a ready winner of the Craven Stakes (5 lengths clear) and
deserves major respect on that basis.
VERDICT: The kick off the for the flat season, with the
ground expected to be the easiest surface since 1998, although it’s expected to
be good to soft instead of testing all round. Racing Post Trophy winner Camelot
has taken all the hype for this since his Doncaster romp and while there’s no telling
how good he could be, this is a far stronger affair than the Racing Post Trophy
and he looked every inch a Derby prospect that day. Of course he could be a
class above, but he’s incredibly short for this at just 7/4 (not even taking
into account his sire’s poor record at a mile and the poor record of Racing
Post Trophy runners) and has to be swerved at the prices, although those who
think he’s the real deal can get 7/2 he wins this and the Derby if so inclined.
At nearly 10 times the price, stablemate POWER makes a huge amount of appeal
based on his successful 2 year old carrer, when an unlucky loser of two Group
1’s on either side of his Phoenix Stakes Triumph. He promises to thrive for a
truly run mile here and with all ground coming alike, he’s a powerful second
string for Ballydoyle, and he can be backed with 4 places at Skybet if one
takes 9/1 instead of 11/1. Many races are well represented and the Prix Dejebel
1-2-3, FRENCH FITEEN, Abtaal, and Hermival, all make some appeal. Abtaal is
fancied to reverse that form by many but he’s just a bit short now and there
seems to be no obvious reason to oppose the winner that day, who came wide and
won cosily in the end, and he gets the backup each/way vote, although don’t be
put off Hermival, as an outsider often makes the frame here. Born To Sea
clearly has ability and is better than he showed last time, but he’s priced up
on breeding rather than form, and Trumpet Major is one that makes a lot of
appeal.
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