I’ve not bothered to write an official match preview for the
Champions League, with the each/way part of our bet on Bayern Munich banked
ahead of their meeting with Chelsea tonight. Home advantage (the final will be
played in the Allianz Arena despite Chelsea being allowed to take 25,000) and
having less damaging – on paper – suspensions has seen Bayern made the
favourites, but all the value has gone from a team that was trahed in the German Cup final just a week
ago by Borussia Dortumnd. There’s a temptation to hedge on Chelsea at 18-5
(infact by backing the 2-0 scores on a hunch earlier this week I have done) although
the loss of Ramires, Ivaonvic &
Terry is a very offputting factor.
MOTM
In keeping with the strategy of hedging, one candidate from
both sides is needed. Since 2004, all but one of the Man Of The Match winners
has been a striker or attacking midfielder (Edwin Van Der Sar’s victory in 2008
being down to the penalty shootout win for Manchester United). If Chelsea win
then Juan Mata, second only in assists to David Silva in this season’s
Premiership, should be closely looked at, having gotten the award in the FA Cup
final after an excellent performance. On
the right side of the field he should have plenty of influence, while also
having one of the higher chances of scoring.
For Bayern, Franck Ribery is as influential as anyone and an
excellent case has already been made by Mark Langdon in the Racing Post. 12
assists in the Bundesliga is three more than anyone else has managed, while he’s
sure to be one of the focal shooting points of Bayern Munich’s attack if (as
expected) Chelsea try to sit back and let Bayern come onto them heavily
tonight.
1st Scorer
Didier Drogba has 5 goals in 6 starts and an incredible
finals scoring record. With Chelsea sure to look towards him as the focal point
of their attack, he has to be given the vote to score first at 9/1 with Paddy
Power – who will refund stakes if Chelsea win - the perfect hedge.
As for Bayern, there’s only one place to look – Mario Gomez.
Scorer of the first goal an astonishing 11 times for Bayern this season, he’s
also smashed in 12 goals in this year’s competition and 4/1 about him notching
first – as strikers have done for the last four years – seems to be a sensible
plan.
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