2012 CL Final Update

I’ve not bothered to write an official match preview for the Champions League, with the each/way part of our bet on Bayern Munich banked ahead of their meeting with Chelsea tonight. Home advantage (the final will be played in the Allianz Arena despite Chelsea being allowed to take 25,000) and having less damaging – on paper – suspensions has seen Bayern made the favourites, but all the value has gone from a team that  was trahed in the German Cup final just a week ago by Borussia Dortumnd. There’s a temptation to hedge on Chelsea at 18-5 (infact by backing the 2-0 scores on a hunch earlier this week I have done) although the loss of Ramires, Ivaonvic  & Terry is a very offputting factor.

MOTM

In keeping with the strategy of hedging, one candidate from both sides is needed. Since 2004, all but one of the Man Of The Match winners has been a striker or attacking midfielder (Edwin Van Der Sar’s victory in 2008 being down to the penalty shootout win for Manchester United). If Chelsea win then Juan Mata, second only in assists to David Silva in this season’s Premiership, should be closely looked at, having gotten the award in the FA Cup final after an excellent performance.  On the right side of the field he should have plenty of influence, while also having one of the higher chances of scoring.

For Bayern, Franck Ribery is as influential as anyone and an excellent case has already been made by Mark Langdon in the Racing Post. 12 assists in the Bundesliga is three more than anyone else has managed, while he’s sure to be one of the focal shooting points of Bayern Munich’s attack if (as expected) Chelsea try to sit back and let Bayern come onto them heavily tonight.

1^st Scorer

Didier Drogba has 5 goals in 6 starts and an incredible finals scoring record. With Chelsea sure to look towards him as the focal point of their attack, he has to be given the vote to score first at 9/1 with Paddy Power – who will refund stakes if Chelsea win - the perfect hedge.

As for Bayern, there’s only one place to look – Mario Gomez. Scorer of the first goal an astonishing 11 times for Bayern this season, he’s also smashed in 12 goals in this year’s competition and 4/1 about him notching first – as strikers have done for the last four years – seems to be a sensible plan.