Kentucky Oaks 2012

10.45 Churchill Downs

Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) (3yo Fillies) (Dirt) (3yo) Winner £364,000

Advice: 2 pts win Broadway’s Alibi, 1 pt each/way Summer Applause (9/2 Skybet, 10/1 Paddy Power)

On Fire Baby: Impressive locally trainer winner of the Honeybee and boasts course form in the shape of her Pocahonas and Golden Rod wins at the backend of last year; Not been seen for 2 months and inside draw not known to be great positive, but shapes like a horse suited towards this test so high on the shortlist.

Grace Hall: Top class 2 year old, winning Spinaway and Blue Hen Stakes in good style before coming a respectable second to My Miss Aurelia in Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies; Turned over at odds-on by Yara on her seasonal debut at Gulfstream, but empathically reversed form back at the same track when she won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Oaks by nearly seven lengths (Yara only fifth that day); Worthy favourite.

Summer Applause: Finished second as 9/10 favourite when beaten in Fair Ground Oaks but had improved based on previous form with that horse at same track, and asked to make up a large amount of ground in deep stretch (reopposing front runner Believe You Can got a great ride from Rosie Napranvik); Fascinating runner here with trainer set to try closing tactics which could work a treat here.

Eden’s Moon: Won her first two races of this year by a 14 & 3/4 lengths, including a 3 & 1/2 lengths victory in the Las Virgenes; Upset at 1-2 in the Sanita Anita Oaks with no obvious excuses and hard to fancy after that despite earlier impressive form; Bred to enjoy a stamina test.

Hard Not To Like:: Flopped as favourite for the Natalama Stakes as a 2 year old but back to form with softer ground and an extra furlong, which saw her beat males in a State bred contest, although she was helped by two rivals (including favourites) being pulled up; Only fifth at Breeders Cup in Fillies Turf (Juvenile) but closing effort at Keenland against Karlovy Vary is encouraging; Needs to improve but might.

Broadway’s Alibi: Comes into this race off a monster streak, having won her last four starts by just about 32 lengths, the latest being a hugely impressive romp in the Comely Stakes, having won the Grade 2 Forward Gal by nearly 17 lengths the time before at Gulfstream Park; Has never raced at beyond a mile, but never looked as if she’d have a problem staying the extra distance, having found plenty when asked off the front in the Comely.

Scarscity: Won he Grade 3 Old Hat on her seasonal return but then no match for Broadway’s Alibi in the Forward Gal and beaten in the Beaument at odds against; Needs far more in this field and never gone beyond 7 furlongs, which raises doubts about her ability to get this distance despite an off the pace running style.

Changed hands and shipped to Bob Baffert after running 5 times and winning once as a 2yo for Ger Lyons in Ireland last year; Only had the one run but that itself been a good one, when third in the Fanatasy Stakes at Oaklawn; Bred to relish a strong stamina test which could bring her right into the thick of things here.

Believe You Can: Leads fellow rival Summer Applause 2-1 on head to heads this year but very lucky to hold on in Fair Grounds Oaks last time when runner up given miles of ground to make up; Not hard to see her doing well off the front end here but sure to have horses taking her on from all corners at the front end.

And Why Not: Not upto Grade 1 level as a juvenile on two occasions but becomes interesting on her second to On Fire Baby (as short as 5/1); Dreadful reappearance run although said to be training better and another bred to relish the stamina test here.

Karlovy Vavy: Got there ahead of Hard Not To Like when making all to land the Ashland Stakes at Keenland; Had Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner behind her that day but more needed here and got the run of the race that day; Hard to see her not being pressured off the front end, while her only try on dirt came when seventh on this track in the Golden Rod Stakes.

Colonial Express: Raced three times and hasn't finished closer than 6 lengths within any of her rivals here.

Amie’s Dini: Coming to the boil at the right time with pair of Grade 2 seconds (conceding 4lbs on both occasions); had previously lost to then-undefeated Now I Know in January and last month to leading Kentucky Oaks contender On Fire Baby in the Honeybee, so holds strong form credentials although it seems like she will find one too good again.

Yara: Turned over the favourite for this in the Davona Dale in Febuary but then only a lacklustre fifth in the Gulfstream Oaks when said horse was an emphatic winner; Very in and out and due a good race but hard to turst on that basis and others make far more appeal.

VERDICT: A race with tons of angles this year, not lease the likely pace burn up with a wet speed playing track – the race has been delayed thanks to bad weather. Likely favourite Grace Hall is sure to take a large amount of catching following her romp in the Gulfstream Oaks, but BROADWAY’S ALIBI has looked as good on occasions and will take some stopping if able to get a good sit on the speed; A wet track is no problem to her either. If she becomes one of many locked in a apce battle, then SUMMER APPLAUSE could be one to benefit. Trainer Bret Calhoun has already said that she will be ridden in the middle of the pack, and given how she closed on Believe You Can in the Fair Ground Oaks, she’s surely going to be one of the best placed later closers in the race. On Fire Baby has had this race as her sole target, and is respected on that basis, while Eden’s Moon disappointed with no excuses last time out.