3.05 Longchamp
Qatar Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe (Group 1) (3YO plus)
Winner €2,288,400
Picks: Fame And Glory (been advised for past few months at 10/1 and lower each/way) Bekhabad (win)
Youmzain: Has come second in this for the last 3 years to Dylan Thomas, Zarkava and Sea The Stars and is coming here after the usual strong of good efforts (should really have won Group 1 ahead of Plumanaia earlier in the year); Every chance given there is no obvious superstar to get in his way, but winning attitude called into question.
Marinous: Had been struggling to land anything better than small cup races in the Middle East, landing £96,000 prize in Qatar; Surprise that he was able to get better of Grade 1 winner Redwood, and classy 3 year olds Shimraan and Goldwaki in the GP De Deauville last time, but this is much tougher.
Fame And Glory: Sixth in this last year but never really going (pulled hard) and didn’t get clear run while being over the top; Should go better having been lightly raced this season not to mention no outstanding horse (plus absence of Sea The Stars, Conduit & Dar Re Mi) may well help; Fact that he hasn’t had a trial run in either Irish Champion Stakes or here on trials day doesn’t augur well though, and draw could have been better but major player nonetheless.
Pouvoir Absolut: Has been well beaten in weaker company than this on his last 2 races, and pacemaker for Planteur team.
Weiner Walzer: Showed top form in Germany last year and everything had been going OK this year, good third place finish to Goldikova and solid fifth to Byword in Prince Of Wales stakes followed up with a near miss in German Grp 1; Poor run last time must a big question mark over prospects though, and form needed improving on anyway.
Calvaryman: Enjoyed a progressive 2009, winning three times (including the Prix Niel and Grand Prix De Paris) before coming third in this, a run which would give him huge shout; Yet to reach same heights for Godolphin and hard to fancy even if he was on way back (ahead of Weiner Walzer last time).
Nakayama Festa: Was a big outsider when he burst onto the scene in the final strides of the Takarazuka Kinen to deny hot favourite Buena Vista, top form for the level; Has come to Europe to be trained for this and shown nothing to suggest he can’t do well, having made Duncan work hard to land the Prix Foy; That rival reopposes again though, and a lot more needed in general scheme of things.
Timos: Respectable third last time out in the Prix Foy behind Arc rivals Duncan and Nakayama Festa; Booking of Fallon is real coup but much tougher race here and unlikely to improve past his 2 rivals from last time.
Duncan: Quirky horse who improved in leaps and bounds last year, bolting up in Heritage Handicap and Listed race last year before then coming fourth in Coronation Cup; Fortunes have changed since but this has been his best ever season, with a Hardwicke second added to with a win in the Foy on trials day; Smart turn of foot that day but things will be much closer between him and those 2 last time, in a much deeper race.
Liang Kay: Consistent all year round, even though his last win came nearly a year ago; Will have to be massively improving to take a hand in this though, as his third to Budai (runs on the Saturday card) isn’t good enough, and he hasn’t run over 12 furlongs for a long time.
Tullamore: 16th out of 19 in this race last year, and set for same finish.
Plumania: Held a sloid level of form last season but has improved leaps and bounds this year having won the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud before an excellent second behind Midday in the Prix Vermeille last time with Sarafina back in third; No reason why she can’t run a big race for master trainer today.
Workforce: Made highly promising start to career when 6-length winner of 7f maiden at Goodwood on only start, quickening through from rear; That showed immense promise but nothing like how impressive he would be when breaking track record to win Derby by seven lengths; Flopped ever so badly in King George and even worse that no reason has come to light; Handles cut and if back to best must be considered, but even then Derby form is poor and he needs to improve.
Bhekabad: Has always been held in high regard by connection who know how to win this race, and showed immense promise when unbeaten in three races at two, finishing last year with a comfortable victory in the Group 3 Prix des Chenes at Longchamp; Has been steadily progressive this year, reversing form with close contender Planteur in winning Grand Prix De Paris and Prix Niel (key form trial, produced many winners of this); Should improve for that and holds as strong a claim as any horse.
Cape Blanco: Has built on unbeaten 3 -2 juvenile season with thoroughly progressive campaign as a 3 year old, beating Workforce in Dante and then when second in King George, not to mention Landing the Irish Derby and Irish Champion Stakes, trashing high class field latest; Only worry is that he might not like 12f on soft ground, as his best has come with quick underfoot conditions; Otherwise the drier the ground the better and major contender, with Soumillion a good booking.
Planteur: Won two out of three starts at two, and looked star material as he justified favouritism in the Prix Noailles, scoring a decisive victory over Rewilding on his first start this season; He’s done better and best inn defeat since, coming second to Lope De Vega in the Jockey Club before being beaten by Bekhabad twice over this C&D; Reasons to think form could be reversed but he’s had every chance until now; Major player nonetheless.
Lope De Vega: Has twice been well beaten over 1m since winning the French Guineas and French Derby earlier in the year but Andre Fabre is master t preparing horses for this and fact connections have stumped up supplementary fee speaks volumes; Would need to stay this trip in very soft ground though and also come right back to his best; Could do it but tough task on, especially as his rivals will have it their way.
Midas Touch: Progressive in three runs at two and ended season with a decent fourth in Criterium International; Made a very good return when landing Derrinstown Derby Trial so was disappointing when lacklustre fifth in Derby; Ran a brave race when close second in Irish Derby, and ran well conserving he had to shoulder a 4lbs penalty in Great Voltigeur at York; Stayed till death when second in the St Ledger, a decent race for the time of year and context;
Vicotire Pisa: Came very close to doing the double in the Japanese 2,000 Guineas and Derby, but worrying that he just mown down late in the latter, as today’s race will be a huge stamina test; Travelled extremely well in the Prix Niel before flattening out and while he wills trip fitter, he may falter for stamina.
Sarafina: Created deep impression with a Group 1 double, winning the Prix Saint Alary and French Oaks with ease and class; Did well stepped up in trip for the first time in the Vermille, when making late headway to come a close third behind Plumana and Midday; Should strip fitter for that but this is tougher again, and more needed than ever.
VERDICT: As open an Arc as I’ll ever see, with soft ground another spanner thrown into the mix. Those who read + listen to the blog will have taken ante post each/way prices of 10/1 regarding Fame and Glory, who has won four of his five starts this term and, unlike last season, arrives on the back of a break. He was going to remain my total pick, but the absence from a major trial has been very worrying and frustrating while the ground may be too deep, while the draw also messes things up if he gets a bad start. Cape Blanco may have the better chance on drier ground (he holds an excellent set of credentials) but at least Murtagh rides. BEHKABAD is a thoroughly progressive colt who has flourished since stepping up to 12 furlongs, gaining hard fought wins over his bitter rival Planteur in the GP De Paris and Prix Niel, both very good trends races for this race. I see no reason why he can’t go close, as he has no obvious faults. He should beat his bitter rival again, in my mind. Workforce has been well supported of the back of good work, and is well worth his place in this field, but only his Derby win gives him any sort of chance and that form is poor for the level. With no obvious star to get in the way, serious consideration must be given to Youmzain, but he hasn’t won for a long time and may just have to give way to a better horse again. It would be lovely if he were to win, but there are a lot of good horses. Sarafina has been rather overlooked following a good trial run (poor ride) but she may well have to play a supporting role behind the second that day, Plumania who looked full value for that finish. Lope De Vega can’t be ignored but the fact is that he’s never looked like a proper stayer of 12 furlongs, (albeit never been given the chance) let alone in such soft ground and even if back to his best, will he really beat his rivals at their preferred trip, especially improved rivals?? The form of the Prix Foy looks good but not good enough for Duncan or Timos to be winning, while out of the strong looking Japanese pair, Nakayama Festa is preferred, with respect being given to possible non stayer Victoria Pisa. Liang Kay, Tullamore, Weiner Walzer and Marinous just don’t look good enough on all known form, while Calavaryman has lost his way since his excellent third in this last year. Pouvoir Absolut is the pacemaker for Planteur. At silly prices, Midas Touch isn’t the worst big price to throw a couple of loose quid at, seeing as he can go through deep ground and stays all day. Any runner has a realistic chance.
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