Champions League 2010/11

It's a good time to review the earlier bets made for the Champions League, with Matchday 3 up and complete.


Inter to win Group A (4/5 with Paddy Power)

Recovered from a 2-2 draw with Twente away to win their next 2, scoring four in Both and playing very well, with the youngsters Countiniho and Biabiany giving them width, space and chances going forward. Incredibly for a Benitez side, they’ve looked a lot better going forward than backwards, were wingers like Bale can get at them easily, as was shown by a shocking second half performance. That said, they’ve looked good and should win the group with Twente still yet to come to the San Siro.

Lyon to win Group B (11/10 general)

Have made a shocking start at home but have won three out of three to take them 3 points clear of Benfica, so are in pole position to take this. Away trips to Schalke and Benfica won’t be easy, but they should take care of Benfica at the Stade Gerland and other teams may cancel each other out, so they look to have a good chance.

Bayern to win Group E (4/9 general)

Another side who have made a shocking start at home but have won three out of three, and even better they have a 6 point lead over Roma, Basel and Cluj. It’ll be much harder to go to Cluj in a fortnight, but they should have enough to beat Basel at home and Roma have been shocking so they’ll fancy themselves to take points there.

Real Madrid to win Group G (1/2 general)

The shortest priced of the lot but another good wager so far, with easy home wins over Ajax and Milan sandwiching a hard fought win at Auxerre. Things can only get tougher as they have to go to Holland and to the San Siro in a fortnight but Mouriniho’s men keep on improving and should have enough in them to win.

So to conclude, all four bets look very good at the moment, although Lyon and Madrid will have tough tests away.

From what I’ve seen so far, the British teams should make a big mark in the competition again, with Man U having gotten 7 points in difficult circumstances, Tottenham having shown their worth, while Arsenal and CHELSEA have gotten perfect records. Chelsea are 11/8 to go furthest in the completion out of the English teams with William Hill and there’s a number of reasons why I think that’s a great bet. Firstly I think they will win the competition, or at least go close to doing so, and surely that would make them an automatic pick for this.

Next, it’s clear that they have a better defence than Arsenal, more world class players than Tottenham, and a deeper squad to plunge than Manchester United. They have been unlucky in recent seasons (infamous referring performance against Barcelona and possibly Inter, losing to Manchester United on penalties, and being unlucky to lose to Liverpool in a semi – final), and now have the right mix of world class experienced players (Essien, Drogba, Cech, Terry, Malouda) and young but composed talent (McEheran, Kakuta, Van Annholt, Sturridge) along with very useful players (Ramieres, Alex, Ivanovic, Bosingwa) to progress and take on European giants.

Speaking of European giants, surely it’s been too long for REAL MADRID to get a win in this competition. Their last win was in that famous final against Bayer Leverkusen (with that volley by Zidane), but a mixture of poor defending and blunt finishing have been enough to keep them out of the Quarter finals or better for in each of the last six seasons.

What reason to think things will change now?? The answer to that has to be the ‘Special One’, jose Mouriniho. Look at Mourinho’s record.
He won the Uefa Cup and Champions League in successive years with Porto, delivered every English domestic cup at Chelsea and then landed an unprecedented treble with Inter last season. That’s an astonishing record and this is surely the best squad he’s inherited.

There is hardly a weakness in the side now Ricardo Carvalho has been signed from Chelsea. Carvalho was not the most glamorous arrival of the summer, but he was the solid and his tactical awareness will be crucial for a defence that always had the raw materials in Sergio Ramos, Pepe, RaulAlbiol and Marcelo, all of whom have stepped up majorly at set pieces and positioning since last season, a good sign as they have been the most solidly defensive team in Europe this year.

With a defence that solid, and players such as Mesut Ozil , Angel Di Maria, and most notably Xabi Alonso to create pace, with Gonzalo Higuain and notably Cristiano Rolando to score the goals, Madrid must fancy their chances.

They have already impressed against a big team in AC Milan and nobody will be wanting to take them on this year.

As for the others, Barcelona will get to the semi's at least but can be beaten, and that may be their greatest weakness if a team can set themselves up to limit their scoring to 2 or less, as Inter did last season. Inter did it last year, and Chelsea only lost on away goals last time they met, so it's likely to be a very close semi final should they meet one of those teams.

Inter have to overturn the statistic that says that no team since city rivals AC have retained this competition, although they have been stupidly priced due to the negative feel that has followed Rafa Benitez from Liverpool.

Interestingly for a team famed for defensive solidity, they've looked much better going forward, having scored 10 goals in just 3 games in Europe. It's pleasing to see the likes of Snedijer, Babaiany and Countinho giving them width but lapses like the second half collapse against Spurs and 2-2 draws against Twente were problematic and a defence lacking in pace will be what gives them away in Europe this season, not the manger or attacking problems.

Arsenal have their best squad for a while and will be able to score and beat any team at the Emirates, but when they have to go away to the San Siro, Bernabeau, Nou Camp and other big stadiums, their defence may come unstuck.

Man Utd will improve as the season goes on but their early season form suggests that the same problems which stopped them from getting through last season (defence and failing to keep the lead) might be their Achilles heel again., That said, if Dimitar Berbatov can continue his sparkling form from early season, Nani can gain some consistency out wide and Javier Hernandez can continue poaching, with a possibly fit and ready Wayne Rooney ready to do the business next year, they will be a threat to all.

AC Milan have been mentioned by many as good outsiders but a poor defence will let them down, with an ageing midfield unlikely to offer the protection needed unless Falmini or Boateng are picked ahead of Seedorf.

Lyon are possible outsiders, as the home form will make them difficult to beat but they are the weakest of the top seeds and will struggle to get the results they need away from home if their intentions are geared towards getting their title back at home.

A good outsider bet may well be Bayern Munich, who have managed 9 points out of 9 despite being in shocking form at home, and can call on the likes of Robben and Ribery to return after the winter, not to mention an already solid attacking lineup. Watch out for them as the season goes on.

And finally, it’s always worth a dabble in the top goalscorer market. Samuel Eto’ leads by 2 on 6 after his blinding start to life with Inter this season , and must be fancied to get more but he will have tougher tests to come against a fully fit Spurs back 4 and the games may well get tighter. The same can’t be said for Barcelona’s LIONEL MESSI, who is bound to be scoring for fun in the next 3 group games and is surely going to be involved for a long time in this season’s tournament.

Recommendations

Chelsea to progress furthest of the British Teams (11/8 William Hill)

Chelsea to win the Champions League (9/2 Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Stan James, Extra Bet)

Real Madrid to win the Champions League (9/2 Ladbrokes)

Lionel Messi to be top scorer (3/1 Totesport, Coral)