12.05 Longchamp
Qatar Prix Du Cadran (Group 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €143,025
Pick: Kasbah Bliss (win)
Askar Tau: One of leading stayers in 2009, completing Group 2 double with success in Doncaster Cup, having previously taken Lonsdale; Has been in abysmal form since though, and not jumping out to be backed here.
Los Christanos: Has shown decent form in the staying division in France this season, but has been beaten by Belk 3 times this year and Kasbah Bliss twice, form which should be upheld; Maxime Guyon is good jockey booking but more needed.
Blek: Has had one of best ever seasons, improving to win Prix Barberville and Prix Maurice De Neuill; Should hold every chance on that form, but ran an average race last time out in Prix Kergolay and has been beaten by a main rival in Kasbah Bliss twice this season (the only time that he beat him, he was getting 2lbs).
Kasbah Bliss: Was a close and unlucky second in this last year, and looked as good as ever early on in season running some smart races while, being prepared for tilt at Ascot Gold Cup (Disappointed in that event but had throat infection); Got no run at all last time and if back to best form, major chance.
Brusco: Hasn’t finished out of the first 3 for a while and was rather impressive in winning the Sparda Bank Trophy (moved up with 3 furlongs to go and left them for dead) but failure to take German St Ledger suggests he’ll struggle here a lot.
Shawnee Saga: Posted rather moderate efforts this year, with only 1 win to his name in a slowly run 3 winner Provinces listed race; Has run Amercain lose on one occasion but well beaten with truer pace and field and likely same story here.
Gentoo: Had disappointing favourite Kasbah Bliss and Winter Dream behind when springing a surprise in the Prix Gladiateur over just short of two miles here; Should run well if repeating that effort in this but probably won’t confirm form.
Winter Dream: Failed to show anything that suggests he could be winning this.
VERDICT: Hopefully the ground will have dried up a little by now to allow for fairer racing. That said, the advice is still to tread quite carefully especially with races that don’t have a lot of quality. This is a very uninspiring turnout given the relatively good amount of stayers in the UK and Ireland. If KASBAH BLISS is ready to run to his best, he should take all the beating in a far weaker renewal than last year where he was actually set to win , but came too late. He should reverse form with Gentoo, while Blek should run another good race.
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