2000 Guineas 2010

A great race, let's hop SNA is a new superstar. Must rush.


3.05 Newmarket
StanJames.com 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £227,080
Picks: Fencing Master, Awzaan (e/w)
Al Zir: Exploded into contention for top prizes with seamless demolitions of maiden field and two other rivals in conditions event; Ran a good race when third behind St Nicholas Abbey in the Racing Post Trophy, and is likely to impove for better ground, but he still has it all to do on that evidence.

Audacity Of Hope: Landed nurseries at Doncaster and Newmarket as a juvenile and is bit better than result on his final 2 starts as a 2 – year old (close third in Group 3 second occasion); His fourth in the Free Handicap was a little bit disappointing considering his Group form, so would need to improve a lot.

Awazaan: Was 4 – 4 as a 2 year old and maintained unbeaten record in good style when winning the Middle Park in good style when last seen (staying on strongly until the end of the race, suggesting a mile would be no problem); Form of that race is good but not cast – iron, but was progressive when last seen and may still have more to come; Big chance.

Buzzword: Had a decent start to his career with a second and a win to his name, both at Windsor; Form has been well franked on both occasions and made eye-catching late progress to be 2nd behind runaway winner D**k Turpin in Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood; Was a bit disappointing when beaten by Shakespearian in the Solario, and put that right with good Group 3 win at Longchamp; Unable to confirm superiority over Siyouni in Group 1 and although he came out with credit when fifth in Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last time, hard to see where improvement will come from.

Canford Cliffs: Looked unbeatable when landing his maiden an impressed even more when trashing Coventry field, having pulled hard and gone clear; Didn’t run too badly when third behind Arcano in Morny last August; Showed he still retained ability when finishing second in Greenham Stakes last time; Is easily about 6/8 lengths better than that run but it must be a worry that he hung so badly and he will need to be “buried”; For all that’s he’s still immensely talented, hasn’t proven he stays a mile.

Turpin: Unbeaten over 6 furlongs, having landed a maiden, Conditions, Sales race and Group 2 Richmond Stakes, beating Buzzword convincingly on that start; Looked for all the world as if he’d stay 7 furlongs when landing Tattersalls Sale Stakes in soft ground under a penalty, so his Jean Luc Gardere fifth was a bit disappointing, even allowing for blocked run; Not a bad effort when sixth in the Dewhurst either; Even allowing for his Greenham Stakes win, he still has to improve and is by no means the best horse out of that race

Elspeth’s Boy: 7f AW maiden winner only start who will do well to make any impact here.

Elusive Pimpernel: made a very taking debut when winning by a in what looked on paper and turned out to be a decent maiden, before then winning Acomb Stakes with a late charge after losing ground badly at the start; Ran an excellent second in the Racing Post Trophy before slamming his rivals in the Craven last time; Comes here fresh and the strong the gallop the better for him; Hasn’t finished improving.

Fair Trade: Improved on promise shown in only start at 2 when landing Newbury maiden in decent style; More to come and not a useless horse but has really been thrown in at the deep end.

Fencing Master: Highly promising debut when overcoming greenness to beat a subsequent winner at Dundalk first time out, and stepped up a level when coming second in the Dewhurst after a troubled trip and bad start; Shaped like much the best horse in the race that day, and should be given every chance on that form.

Greyfriarschorista: Probably continued his improvement even though he got touched off in a listed event last time; That still miles behind the best of these, assuming he’s as good on turf.

Hearts Of Fire: Got much better with experience as a 2 year old despite being forward enough to win Brocklesby on debut, also improving for step up in trip when landing Group 1 over a mile in Italy; Good sign that Stefan Pasquier is on board, and stable sound positive; Not without chance and generously overpriced although he will need to improve.

Inler: Gambled on and duly delivered on debut here when making all to win by four lengths here last October; Has to find a huge amount to take a hand here and will need to pore he stays’ but if doing so, may have a say.

Lord Zenith: Overcame steady pace when quickening smartly to land 1m listed race at Lingfield recently on first run for 9 months; That showed promise but needs much more.

Makfi: Impressed when making it 2 -3 winning Prix Dejibel last time, quickening impressively; Form of that not great but has to be respected coming here and may be more to come.

Red Jazz: Broke smartly and blazed away to decimate opposition in 5f Windsor maiden; Stepped up on that from when winner of a good 6f conditions stakes at Ascot; Flopped in the Coventry but good third behind Morny Winner Arcano was a good sign; Impressive in Free H’Cap last time but will not be allowed to dominate and even then, this tougher.

St Nicholas Abbey: Very highly regarded and lived up to his reputation by accomplishing his task in fine style on heavy ground in 1m Curragh maiden; Travelled easily and got the better of Layali Al Andalus late on in very good style to take Beresford Stakes; Really came to the form when slamming strong Racing Post Trophy field when last seen, making smooth hedway and running away; Must hold every chance on that basis, with the form looking strong (Elusive Pimpernel slamming Craven Field since).

Viscount Nelson: Looked like a very good horse on his first few starts, especially when landing the Hurricane Run Stakes under a hand ride; Probably exposed for the faster ground in Champagne Stakes and lost the race at the start in the Breeders Cup; Good run last time out but has a lot to find.

Xtension: Was a good second behind Canford Cliffs and very impressive in two wins as a 2 year old, both at Goodwood, having won the Vintage Stakes in good style; Ran well in the Dewhurst too and should give another good shot, although he did have every chance.

VERDICT: It looks as good a 2,000 Guineas as ever this year, headed by the hot favourite St Nicholas Abbey, who was a devastating winner of the Racing Post Trophy when last seen. The signs are good and if he reproduces that form, or even improves on it, it’s hard to see what stops him. It would be great to have another superstar to follow for the season, but 6/4 was a very short price, and now that’s gone, I’ll leave him alone at the price. Elusive Pimpernel has to be respected and it’s likely that he will get closer to St Nick than he did that day, while he is also fit. He’s a very solid e/w bet at 7/1. Canford Cliffs is still an immensely talented horse although he hasn’t won since his Coventry romp, and it must be a huge worry that he lost the race by hanging last time. He will also have to be buried in the field may suffer trouble in running. That is also my rationale behind not having Dick Turpin as the pick, as he was handed the race by Canford Cliffs. One of the horses that really takes my eye is AWZAAN, who was 4 -4 as a 2 year old and maintained his unbeaten record in good style when winning the Middle Park in good style on his last start. There are some very good signals coming from the yard and his jockey and if proving as good at a mile as he has over 6 furlongs (sire got 10 furlongs and dam got 7) , he should go close. One of the major form races for this is the Dewhurst, and when running on for second after having lost 3 lengths at the start, and coming widest of all when still green, there’s a big argument for saying that FENCING MASTER was the best horse in the race that day and he has a perfectly respectable chance. Al Zir should progress bundles for quicker ground and did take my eye, while I think that Inler needs to prove his big reputation, useful as he is. Xtension should also give it a good shot but I believe that Fencing Master had to do more having had less experience, which sways me his way.

Tips for tomorrow - Ascot

2.10 Ascot - Zebedee

Hacked up when winning first time out at Windsor for the red - hot Hannon stable whose juveniles can do no wrong, and although he will be short could be on e of the the better types. Anyway, despite a very short price, he should go very close.

2.45 Ascot - Bella Swan

Avaite will have her supporters but is worth taking on with a race - fit BELLA SWAN, who has several efforts worthy of taking this and should be better for her reappearance. Blue Angel shouldn't be too far away either). Regards the Cecil "prospects", both Bullet Train and Timepiece have been beaten on reappearance.

3.20 Ascot - Cityscape

Proven well-being will count for plenty following his sterling effort under top weight in the Newbury Spring Cup, and considering that he's a) Proabaly better than that b) Likely to improve for the run, he should hold a very good chance.

3.55 Ascot - Askar Tau

Has a big penalty but is the only horse in the race to have won a Group race; 2 of them in fact, at Group 2 level. His staying power should help him given the way this race is likely to be run - at a good clip, with plenty of pace around.

Mojave Moon would hold a solid chance on her best, but It's hard to know how the switch to a new yard will have helped him, and he best effort (a second to Schiparelli in the Group 2 Prix Kergolay) came in the receipt of a rather hefty weight allowance.

Yes Mr President should like this test but has to prove he's good enough, and Akmal may be the main danger because he'll be race fit.


4.30 Ascot - Society Rock - each/way

I think that Our Jonathan will most likely win, but has to give away a hefty penalty and may not be for me at the forecast 7/4. At what is likely to be an e/w price, this horse appeals because he won a sales race and was then upped to 7 furlongs for another, but was poorly drawn and actually finished second of his group, but 7th overall. He's 2-2 at 6f as well.


5.45 Ascot - Daridan - each/way

Would have gone close in the Spring Cup but for meeting trouble and has to be given another chance off what looks a lenient turf mark.


Thanks for visiting and keep coming back.

I (but most appropriately we) WON!!!

Thanks so much for helping me win the Racing Web Chart, and I've got more good news - I can post a few tips - They will be quite short though.

Quickly, I think that CERIUM must have an e/w Squeak at 16's in the 7.20 at Sedgefield.

Those damn time restrictions - Blog on Hiatus

Sorry for an unrelated post but I would like to thank everyone who has visited and clicked throughout the Racing Profiler web chart.

I'd like to apologise for the lack of posts, especially as it was during the Punchestown festival, one of the biggest of the year and the king of festivals in Ireland. I've had trouble posting, which might continue for the next couple of days, but hopefully with some clear sailing I will post for the 1 and 2,000 Guineas and maybe even the Jockey Club Stakes too, so please keep the faith.

P.S If I win this week's racing chart, I will be personally indebted to you all.

Punchestown Festival - Day 2

I had a plan of doing a full spotlight for every Grade 1 race at the festival but the Bumper had about 27 runners and I was short of time.


Punchestown Festival - Day 2

4.20

Louis Fitzgerald Hotel Hurdle (4YO only) 
Winner €16,251

SON AMIX brings the best form to the table after his fourth in the competitive Fred Winter at Cheltenham, arguably deserving extra credit that day as well, having raced close to the strong pace. He's got an excellent realtionship with the conditional on board as well, which will help a lot.

Pick: Son Amix

4.55 

Madra Irish Dog Food Novice Hurdle (Grade 3) (4YO plus) 
Winner €22,750

The ground and a 3lbs penalty make things a little more difficult, but MAGNANIMITY looks to have a bright future and should be able to concede weight to these rivals. Ad Idem nay prove to be the biggest threat, while Rhyl Accord and Definte Edge.  

Pick: Magnanimity 

6.05

Paddy Power Champion I.N.H. Flat Race (Grade 1) (4YO to 7YO) 
Winner €52,000  

There's no doubting that all of the horses who ran at Cheltenham are better than their finishing position, and as such we shouldn't be suprised to see form reversals. TAVERN TIMES had a number of these rivals in behind when finishing fourth in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper at Cheltenham and seeing as he didn't really handle the track and should be fresh enough having only run twice. It's hard to pick between Shot For The Hip, Up Ou That and HIDDEN UNIVERSE for the e/w vote but he did best of the three and has won again since. 

Picks: Tavern Times (win), Hidden Universe (e/w)

6.40 

Irish Daily Mirror Handicap Chase (Grade A) (5YO plus) 
Winner €49,600

A very tricky race with plenty of talented horses who could be well treated. STEWARTS HOUSE has carried on progressing this season, winning well last time at Leopardstown. THE SAWYER is well treated on his 2 handicap wins this season and his Ascot Chase third.

Pick: Stewarts House (win), The Sawyer (e/w) 


7.15 Punchestown

Brian Price Memorial Champion Hunters Chase (5YO plus) 
Winner €16,251

KILTY STORM stepped up on a winning debut in this sphere when runner-up in the Christie's Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham last time, and a reproduction of that (having been given       36 days to recover) will make him go close. 

Pick: Kilty Storm 

        

Guinness Gold Cup 2010

Not a great day 1, but still a long way to go. Enjoy!!! 

5.30 Punchestown

Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup (Grade 1) (5yo+) Winner €135,000

Pick: J’yVole e/w

Barbers Shop: Only ran three times last year, making huge strides on his way to fishing seventh in the Gold Cup; Although he wasn’t disgraced on that occasion, it did raise stamina doubts that were hardly put to bed when fourth in Hennessey; Ran well enough again when third in King George but his Rynair run leaves him with a lot to find, and not certain to stay 3m around this track.

Cooldine: Developed into best staying novice chaser of last season with win in the PJ Moriarty Chase before a 16 length rout in the RSA Chase; Must have been well over the top when on his last run of the season when fourth and then ran a shocker in the Lexus Chase over Christmas; Was perfectly capable of beating Joncol in the Hennessy but heavy ground went against him; Travelled well in GOLD Cup but went out like a light and very hard to fancy on that evidence, although the third fourth and winner are all absent here and he will have his ground; Worth nothing that he ran well below par at 4/7 fav last year after a festival run.

Denman: Gold Cup winner of 2008 who had heart trouble which kept him to below par performances last year ;put in one of the outstanding performances of recent times when coming right back to his best winning the Hennessy off 161; Things went badly on his first start for AP McCoy when he unseated in the AON Chase but ran well above that to be second in the Gold Cup; Stable reports say he’s as good as he’s ever been and would have to take some stopping here.

Follow The Plan: Decent 2m Novice Chaser who took notable scalp of Tatenen in Grade 1 at Christmas 2 years ago; Didn’t appear to get home or relish three mile trip last time so questions to be answered after that run.

Joncol: Impressed in some easy Graded novice chases last season and has contained that progression this season, coming a close second to Tranquil Sea before romping away with the John Durkan; Stayed on late in the Lexus Chase and improved from that to just get the better of Cooldine last time in the Hennessy; Solid, though stayer who jumps well and if he was to reproduce his best on this surface (all wins on ground no faster than soft / heavy), he would have to take a serious chance.

Notre Pere: Progressed from taking decent Handicap at Navan last season to then running riot in Welsh Grand National before then coming second in Irish Hennessy and routing opposition in Guinness Gold Cup; Leading chance on that sort of form but has been below par this season.

Planet Of Sound: Ran a couple of great races at Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals last season as a novice, finishing third in the Arkle Continued in the same vein when landing the Haldon Gold Cup on his first start; Hasn’t been running as well this season and his jumping has become an issue.

Rare Bob: Very tough and consistent horse who won a big race at this meeting last season when winning the Champion Novice Chase; Although he hasn’t disappointed, he hasn’t really gone on as expected and has a tough task here.

Siegemaster: Has ran some great races this season under big weights in tough handicaps on  heavy ground, and was right there until the last in the Irish National;  Not one to be dismissed easily but has to jump the bridge form top h’capper to Grade 1 horse.

Tranquil Sea: Made a great start to the season, fulfilling promise he showed early on his novice days when hacking up in Paddy Power Gold Cup; Got beaten at 2 miles by Golden Silver over Xmas before hacking up again in the Newlands Chase; Ran a shocker in the Ryanair and not the type that jumps out at you for this, and must bounce back.

War Of Attrition: Even though he is not the force he was when winning the 2006 Gold Cup, but has been great over hurdles this season a credit to all; Unlikely to be in shakeup but done connections proud.

Jy V’ole: Lightly raced last season, with only win coming here at this festival last year where she romped home by 14 lengths (well placed and well handicapped);Seems to have come right back to her every best and more judged by her run in Ryanair and her romp in Red Mills Chase; Didn’t stay on over this trip in Lexus but stable not in great form at that time and ground very heavy.

VERDICT: On all form, Denman should win, and win well at his best this season (which is probably his Hennessy win off 161). He does however, seem happy on a left – handed track and at 13/8, might be best left alone. Joncol ran an awesome race to beat Cooldine but that horse might be in better form and will like the ground a lot more. Cooldine actually appeals as an e/w bet at around 9/2 & 11/2 but he really emptied badly in the Gold Cup and bombed at this meet after winning the RSA Chase in easy fashion. After an even harder race on softening ground, I couldn’t be having him as a real place banker. It’s an unknown about her staying 3 miles, but J’Y VOLE has really picked up for that and should go well with her stable in blistering form. 

Punchestown Festival Day 1 -Supporting Novice Races

Tricky stuff and nothing I would put large wagers on. Still, it's PUNCHESTOWN!!!

3.40 Punchestown

Kildare Hunt Club Fr Sean Breen Memorial Chase For The Ladies Perpetual Cup (5YO plus)

Winner €6,900

Pick: Wenger Pardy

A tricky race top open the festival and my pick would be on WENGER PARDY to give away the weight, having won here at the festival for the last 2 years. Katie Walsh has had her best ever season proving that she can win at the biggest festival of them all and she looks a good booking.

4.55 Punchestown

3.ie Handicap Hurdle (0-140) (grade C) (4YO plus)

Winner €21,125

Pick: Lethal Weapon (e/w)

Another tight race. LETHAL WEAPON held immense promise when winning a Grade 1 at Leopardstown on Boxing Day 2 years ago and he could have been anything after then. He ran badly in the Triumph and then again in a handicap hurdle (needed the run badly to comeback) and also in a recent sharpening run on the flat. He could be miles well in on his best form and his flat run gives me a signal that he’ll be ready to run a big race here.

5.30 Punchestown

Goffs Land Rover Bumper (4YO to 5YO)

Winner €59,000

Picks: Double Double (win), Earls Quarter (e/w)

This is going to be a very competitive race, no question about that. The three I think that the winner is likely to come from are DOUBLE DOUBLE, Sizing Ireland and EARLS QUARTER. 2 of the three have racecourse experience, with the fact that Double Double won by 9 lengths giving him the vote over a promising Sizing Ireland, and Earls Quarter comes from the top bumper stable in Ireland. 

Thanks a Million!!!

I'd just like to say a big thank you to all of the people who visited last week through clicking on the Racing Web Chart and also through Twitter or just searching. That support took me / us to NUMBER 4 in the Racing Web Chart on Twitter so thanks a Million and keep coming back for more as it's Punchestown next week and there's lots to see!!

Punchestown Festival Day 1 - Growise Champion Novice Chase 2010

6.40 Punchestown

Growise Champion Novice Chase (Grade 1) (5YO plus)

Winner €49,600

Pick: Lenabane (e/w)

China Rock: Ran well in top novice hurdles last season, including two successive fourth pace finishes behind Mikael D’Haugenet at the Cheltenham and Punchestown Festivals; Well beaten on chasing debut but got the better of Alpha Ridge on his next start; Ran better than most will give credit for over too short a trip when fourth to Sizing Europe and his form entitles him for major consideration: Has fallen short of stamina (ground was heavy) before so 3m seems a bit on long side for him.

Jadanili: Bolted up in Powers Gold Cup and looked as if longer trips would be no problem that day; Race fell into his lap though, with Zarrito falling when cruising, Kempes, Nicanor and Shakervillz all not jumping and Roberto Goldback running well below form; If he runs literally on that form, would have a massive chance but doubts.

Kempes: Very good hurdler who won a Grade 2 over fences and was in front of some pretty useful fencing types when second in the Champion Novice over 32m at Punchestown ; Has taken the time to get the hang on things over fences but did it good style in a Grade 2;  Ran an atrocious race last time out (only 3 finished) and not likely to stay 3m1f.

Lenabane: Has some very smart hurdler form going over the past season, and has transferred his good attitude to fences, with three wins out of four starts over hurdles; Performed better over fences and hasn’t been disgraced in Grade 1 company, running some excellent races; Was hampered a bit when unlucky fourth last time but sound jumper and stayer so should have chance here.

Saddlers Storm: Had 9 starts over fences, so plenty of fencing experience and was on a 4 timer when falling in the Irish National (sent off as Favourite); Was progressive before his fall but needs to step up a level to win this.

The Midnight Club: Has taken time of things to get the hang of chasing (3 runs before winning 2 starts ago);Was running on really well in the Jewson at the festival last time, and will stay 3 miles perfectly; Will need to step up a level here though and was running off 139 last time, so no doubting he could have run well above that mark; Chance.

Whatuthink: Good hurdler at his best, his best effort a World Hurdle third; Was beaten on chasing debut and won impressively but his fall when headed by Quiscover Fontaine and efforts in Grade 1 company fail to inspire.

Zaarito: Starting to deliver on earlier promise since switched to fences, touched off by Captain Cee Bee at Naas before winning well here next time out; Only got touched off by Captain Cee Bee which is great form in the sense of things, but he was coming back from a 2 year layoff; On the three times he has stood up over fences, he has been touched off by Captain Cee Bee and has won by 6 and 8 lengths; Cruising in the P.J Moriarty when falling at the last and would have taken a big hand in the finish; Could easily be called one to beat in putting in a clear round, but once again fell in the Powers Gold Cup when coming to win and as well as that, stamina might be a slight issue.

VERDICT: A very interesting race. Zarrito is easily classy enough (you could argue that he should have won 2 Grade 1’s this season) and is probably the best horse in the race, but has fallen in every Grade 1 Chase he’s contested. The Midnight Club will stay this well and was running an eye-catching race in the Jewson, but was well handicapped off 139 and will need to step up. China Rock has the form to go close, but flattened out when challenging for the lead and fears are that the same thing could happen again. Saddlers Storm was progressive before his fall but needs to step up another level to win this. Jadanli holds a strict form chance on his win the Powers Gold Cup but only 3 finished in a very hard race and the form is rather untrustworthy at the moment. Shakervillz fell last time in the Powers Gold Cup and only finished because he remounted. Quiscover Fontaine is unexposed (especially at longer trip). At 12/1, LENABANE looks like an OK bit of e/w value at 12/1 as he jumps well and has run well in some tough races.

Punchestown Festival Day 1 - Boylesports Champion Chase 2010

6.05 Punchestown

Boylesports.com Champion Chase (Grade 1) (5YO plus)

Winner €87,250

Pick: Sizing Europe

Barker: Had been relatively obscure until couple of easy novice chase wins, steeping up to big time comfortable when coming a close second in the Powers Gold Cup; Then proceed to run away with the Cathal Ryan at the Punchestown festival last year; Good performance then but that was on very soft ground and main rivals (Forpadydeplaster for one) could well have been over the top; Unseated and pulled up in 2 runs this year, which does not offer hope.

Cornas: Impressed with his thirteen length rout at Exeter out but form of that not strong; Well beaten in Grade 1 company so tough task on here.

Don’t Be Bitin’: Put up some game performances this season but was 5 lengths behind Golden Silver last time and is about a stone worse off today. 

Forpadydeplasterer: One of toughest novice chasers of last season and solid campaign highlight was Arkle chase win; Jumped sketchingly on comeback and eventually tired on very heavy ground when second to Herecomesthetruth; Met a little setback but had a good break and ran well to be second behind Big Zeb in Champion Chase and again to come second behind Albertas Run In the Melling Chase; Sure to run big race again.

Golden Silver: Got the better of Arkle winner Forpadydeplaster last January in the Irish Arkle before going off the boil for the rest of his novice runs; Came back in really good style when landing Hilly Way off topweight really easily and impressed when landing Dial A Bet Chase; Was outclassed by Big Zeb twice before landing topweight in easy style last time out; Chance her in favoured conditions although he has a little bit to make up on the principals.

Kalahari King: Tough and consistent novice chaser who was arguably unlucky not to have won an Arkle; Came back in great style when landing a handicap off topweight but was well beaten by Forpady in the Champion; Fell too early to have had a race last time but still has to turn around form with Forapdy; Strong chance, but opposable as favourite.

Natal: Ran a great race to finish second in the Newlands Chase last time but this has more strength in depth and trip may not suit him as much as others; That makes it hard for him.

Salford City: High class novice at his best without winning, coming second to Jered here 2 years ago; Jumps fences fine (beat useful novice Doctor David by 11 lengths) but this is a huge step up in class.

Scotsirish: Ran well in a series of races last season and is coming into the same form as last season, having ran an excellent second under topweight in the Topham; Is 7 lengths behind Golden Silver on form, so tough task today.

Sizing Europe: May only be a novice and faces big task stepping up but does have a faultless record over fences (unbeaten over fences in 5 starts)and put up a display of the highest class when winning good Arkle last time(form already working out well); Huge task on but no doubting that he’s up to it.

Twist Magic: Inconsistent but very talented 2 mile chaser who’s claim to fame was winning this very race 2 years ago; Largely disappointing last season until romping home in the celebration chase, and was looking like a big threat of Masterminded when coming down 2 out in the Tingle Creek of 2008; Usually inconsistent but had best winter ever, romping home in Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler Chase; Disappointed at Cheltenham for third straight year but was beaten 52 lengths before winning this in 2008, so expect big run; Absence of Ruby Walsh is slight negative(7-18 Chase wins have come with him on board). 

VERDICT: A good renewal of this race, as has been usual and it has produces some pulsating contests over the years, none more so than last year where Big Zeb’s jumping cost him the race. That horse doesn’t reappear after his Champion Chase win, but it’s none the less a high class contest anyway with many imponderables. Kalahari King didn’t really have a race at Aintree last time and can be expected to go close here, but he has to reverse form with Forpadydeplasterer, who in turn finds it slightly hard to win and although he has had a break this season, is running at his third consecutive big festival. Twise Magic has a form edge on everything in the field and was having his best ever season before blowing out in the Champion Chase (as he has done 3 times now) and that is no put off, as he was beaten 52 lengths before winning this in 2008 and is in better form now. What’s more of a put off is the absence of Ruby Walsh, who has been on for all his Grade 1 wins and 7 out of his 18 chase wins in total.  SIZING EUROPE is unbeaten over fences and put up a display of the highest class to win an Arkle that is already working out well. This is a huge test but there’s not doubting his class and he can do it. 

Punchestown Festival Day 1 - Evening Herald Champion Novice Hurdle

Don't know if all of these will turn up (only did 12 /15 runners on the RP racecard) but if they have prices for everything, I might as well assume that they won't turn up. 

4.20 Punchestown

Evening Herald Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) (5YO plus)

Winner €52,700

Picks: General Miller (win), Loosen My Load (e/w)

Baron D’e L: Made a good start to novice hurdling with two wins but instant he stepped up in class he was well beaten in Navan Grade 3; Also well ebaten on all starts since, so hard task on here.

Blackstairmountain: Made a very promising hurdles debut and maybe just suffered for lack of experience when weakening in the straight in the Supreme Novice’s Hurdle; Looked as if he was set to win Grade 2 at Fairyhouse last time but folded badly in closing stages in receipt of weight from Luska Lad; Should like better ground but something to prove in light of that effort.

Flat Out: Became very progressive in bumpers and hacked up on his hurdling debut; Ran an excellent race in light of his inexperience in the Supreme last time and will have chance having learned from that, although this is no easier.

General Miller: Trotted up on his two bumper wins last season, and continued where he left off when getting the better of Ghizao in the last 75 yards of the novice hurdle last time; That rival has dotted up in lesser company since, so form looks pretty solid; Didn’t stay when second to Restless Harry over 2m4f and fell at the first in the Supreme(Both races didn’t show his true ability); Put up a great effort to catch Menorah last time and has to be respected on that basis.

Grey Soldier: Had 2 starts and probably put his best hurdling effort up when second to Rite Of Passage; Hugely disappointing in light of that form when pulling up in the Dovecote last time out and fair bit to prove in that light. 

Loosen My Load: Only been beaten once in about 6 starts, that coming over fences; His last run was when beating Some Present at Cheltenham in November; Had a long break since and found ground way too heavy when fourth last time but entitled to do better here on better ground, having supposedly improved for the run.

Rollwiththepunches: Put in a good effort last time when beaten 13 lengths by impressive next time out winner Captain Chris; Better than bare form of that because he was eased at the end, but still has ground to make up.

Some Slam: Didn’t progress as expected twice in 3 bumper runs and was 10 lengths behind Grey Solider when fourth on his hurdling debut; Won in good style last time but doesn’t look like the most consistent of horses.

Sweeps Hill: Made hard work of it on debut and showed most promise, on his second run; Showed a lot of speed when dispatching Some Present but has disappointed on his last 2 runs in Grade 1 races; Strictly on the form book, has a lot of ground to make up but interesting to see support for him in recent days.

Tilabay: Taken a very long time to get the hang of things before landing decent prize last time out but this is a major, major step up.

VERDICT: It’s been interesting to see Sweeps Hill priced at just 6/1 following his Grade 1 blowouts on his last 2 runs, and Flat Out can be expected to run a big race following his excellent fifth in the Supreme, but based on his win in the Top Novice’s Hurdle last time, GENERAL MILLER would have ran a big race there and can be expected to go close here given his trainer’s good record here. For an e/w bet, LOOSEN MY LOAD appeals at 8/1 seeing as his run last time should have brought him along nicely and the ground now will suit him much better.

Best Bets - April 17th

Best Bets are all at Newbury

1. Arcano - 5/2 - 11/4 Greenham Stakes 3.45

2. Misheer - 9/4 - Fred Darling Stakes 3.05

3. Clowance (e/w) 15/2 - John Porter Stakes 2.00


Be lucky

Scottish Grand National 2010

3.20 Ayr

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £114,020

A tricky renewal. What were’ looking for is a solid jumper who stays and goes on good ground, and with 9/1 the field, I’m looking for 2 against the field from the first 4. POKER DE SIVOLA won a good battle for the 4m National Hunt chase and his trainer (Ferdy Murphy) has won this 2 times in the last 5 years, so knows what he’s doing here. GONE TO LUNCH isn’t in the form he was last season but he’s 8lbs lower and handles this type of test. Meanus Dandy was impressive at Sandown and while unexposed, is inexperienced for a test like this. Theatrical Moment ran a pretty good race and will get further than 3 miles but whether he’ll get 4m is a different matter.

Others I considered were the ones highlighted on the RP forum, No Panic, Monetro and Aroura’s Encore but none stuck me as looking likely to stay well enough. It’s also interesting that Richard Johnson has chosen Chriaro, while the likes of Lothian Falcon and Scots Dragoon.

Picks: POKER DE SIVOLA, GONE TO LUNCH (both e/w) 

Scottish Champion Hurdle 2010

2.45 Ayr

Samsung Electronics Scottish Champion Hurdle (Grade 2) (Limited Handicap) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £45,608

Pick: Border Castle, Eradicate (e/w)

Michael Flips: Useful novice who has put it back together on his last 3 runs, wining the Lanzarote Hurdle and also running an excellent race in the Coral Cup; Ran a bad race in-between the two and this drop in trip may not be the best thing.

First Point: Won three out of last six starts and was rated 133 when winning over hurdles recently this summer, so form over fences gives him a chance; 6^th in Tote Trophy gives him a good chance and he  =looks to be there or thereabouts without winning.

Tito Bustillio: Was still there when being badly hampered 2 out in the County Hurdle and his form beforehand gives him a realistic chance here; He has been raised since that run, so he’ll need to be every bit as good as promised, but chance anyway.

Arcalis: ran with credit at Cheltenham Festival for fifth time in 6 years when second in County Hurdle, finishing best from well back; Has a serious chance if literally repeating/ improving on that form but had a strong pace to shoot at and a stiff hill to climb.

Lady Hillingdon; Improved a lot last summer, winning 3 times, and put in best when second in listed contest at Wetherby in October; Has excuses for only run this year but is high enough in weights.

Eradicate: Showed promise in novice season; Built on that when landing valuable Musselbrugh race in good style (had a mark of 129); Had quite a hike for that but dropped 2lbs in wake of bad run in the County; That drop gives him quite a chance especially compared to the mark he would be running off had he run properly at Cheltenham.

Frontier Dancer: Ended last season on a high with a win at Perth and found only Fairyland too good on return at Newbury in November; Has lost his form and looked held when falling last time.

Border Castle: Winner of this in 2008 and has clearly been given a preparation with this in mind, coming an excellent second to Punjabi and then another good second last time when conceding 9lbs to a useful sort and his pulled up in the Imperial Cup isn’t so bad seeing he was hampered; Only 9 and chance here.

William Hogarth: Finished runner up 5 times before then making heavy weather and getting beaten; Won by 10 lengths and then got beaten last time and while he’s rated as running to 130, he seems inconsistent.

Overturn: Had posted 4 very good efforts before bolting up tice at this track on his last 2 starts; I don’t get all the fuss over his flat form but a 10lbs rise for a 10 lengths win is very fair and he’s definitely got a chance.

Gloucester: Consistent but doesn’t really find much for shoving and is suited by a cruising and waiting ride; Still ran well for the first time in 6 months and speed test might just suit him.

Palomar: Well treated on his second (behind Eradicate) form poor position at Musselburgh in February ; Very moody and it’s hard to see how he will respond to the blinkers.

VERDICT: Overturn has been given a fair crack of the whip by going up 10lbs for a 10 length win. However a lot of fuss has been made over his flat form and I don’t think it matters a lot in this type of race. Arcalis had the benefit of a strong pace, big field and a strong hill to run up last time and he can be taken on here. Tito Bustillo should also hold a chance as he was still there when being badly hampered 2 out in the County Hurdle and his form beforehand gives him a realistic chance here. He has been raised since that run, so he’ll need to be every bit as good as promised, but he has chance anyway. BORDER PATROL is 5lsb lower when winning this 2 years ago and has been campaigned with this in mind. ERADICATE is also in with a good chance based on his run last time. 

Scottish Champion Novice's Chase 2010

Ayr 2.15

Scottish Sun Future Champion Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)
Winner £22,804

French Opera: Looked good last season over fences without winning a chase; Has won three this season, and second in Grand Annual was a huge effort; Trip on this ground should be just fine and hopefully he’s had enough time to recover from his Cheltenham Festival exertions.

Thico Polos: Showed what he could do when landing two novice hurdles by wide margins; Went off boil after brief foray into big handicaps and has stated chasing well with two good wins; Looked very tired when falling after running well for a long way in the Feltham; Second to Punchestowns and wide margin Sandown win makes him a major player here; Confirmed stayer.

Fiendish Flame: Front runner who has quickly made up into as good a chaser as hurdler, making all at Carlisle in October and Musselburgh in February; Good effort when 6^th in the Jewson last time; chance here.

Fortysecondstreet: Always been well regarded and hasn’t done badly over fences / hurdles, (won twice over hurdles from 3 starts) and did well to get off the mark over fences, but that leaves him with a fair bit to find. 

Kangaroo Court: Went into plenty of notebooks when romping home at Doncaster before getting well beaten by Karabak; Thrashed in Supreme Novice’s Hurdle before romping home on final start over hurdles (Not needing to improve); Has cantered home on his first two chase starts and found the Arkle a bit too fast for him, but every chance over longer trip.

VERDICT: A competitive contest with some useful and pretty consistent and well known horses. The betting would have the likeliest winner as FRENCH OPERA, but 10/11 about him in a contest this tight doesn’t really appeal a lot. Tchio Polos is the one to give him most to do. 

Newbury Grenham Day - Greenham Stakes

3.40 Newbury

Bathwick Tyres Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Str) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £36,900

Pick: Arcano 

Arcano: Leading 2 year old over 6 furlongs who showed immense promise in winning all three of his starts, right up to Group 1 level; Broke track record when winning the Morny, beating Canford Cliffs and Special Duty; Raced as if he wants 7f and major chance today.

Bullwhip: Produced a storming performance to trash 15 runners in Doncaster maiden, where would have won by more than 7 lengths had he not been eased down; This huge step up in class, but he’s earned it.

Canford Cliffs: Looked unbeatable when landing his maiden an impressed even more when trashing Coventry field, having pulled hard and gone clear; Didn’t run too badly when third behind Arcano in Morny last August and no surprise if he reversed form / ran better, but is not value at 8/11; Connections still have faith and high class prospect.

Turpin: Unbeaten over 6 furlongs, having landed a maiden, Conditions, Sales race and Group 2 Richmond Stakes,  beating Buzzword convincingly on that start;  Looked for all the world as if he’d stay 7 furlongs when landing Tattersalls Sale Stakes in soft ground under a penalty, so his Jean Luc Gardere fifth was a bit disappointing, even allowing for blocked run; Not a bad effort when sixth in the Dewhurst and has to be allowed a realistic form chance here; Small field could prove ideal, as with Canford Cliffs.

Rodrigo De Torres: Hasn’t progressed from his first start as expected and hard task here.

VERDICT: A very high class Group 3 contest. ARCANO got the better of Canford Cliffs when the pair were last seen at Deauville nearly 8 months ago. The pick will improve bundles for the run and both remain exciting prospects but I cannot have the latter at 8/11 and 5/2 is a very fair price for the former especially as he comes here unpenalized. Turpin and Bullwhip can have their say too. 

Newbury Grenham Day - Spring Cup

2.35 Newbury

Berry Bros & Rudd Magnum Spring Cup Handicap (Str) (Class 2)  (4YO plus)

Winner £21,808

Picks: Irish Heartbeat, Mull Of Killnough (both e/w)

A fiendishly competitive race. 2 against the field are IRSH HEARTBEAT and Mull Of Killough, both having been given a fair chance her the handicapper following their good displays last time. Manassas, Cityscape and Desert Creek could all win and I’d give a fair shout to Huzzah.

Newbury Grenham Day - Fred Darling Stakes

3.05 Newbury

Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Fillies' Group 3) (Str) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £36,900

Pick: Misheer (win),  Puff (e/w)

Bahati: Solid efforts since winning over 6f on debut here in May but stepping out of her comfort zone at this level.

Dedriere: Ran out a very nice winner of a 1m Newcastle maiden (building on promising début) and looks type to fill out and be better at 3 years; Drop back in trip might not help here and stiff task set.

Habbiybib: Impressive winner of Albany Stakes at Royal Meeting, beating many subsequent winners in the process; Didn’t exactly do badly when 2nd to Misheer in Cherry Hinton Stakes and reportedly had ringworm last start; Still promising.

Hairspray: Imitations ruthlessly exposed when stepped up to pattern company last year and difficult to envisage things being any different here.

Lady Of The Desert: Was been arguably the top 2 year old filly for most of season, with wins in the Lowther and Princess Margaret Stakes, both in impressive style; Had Flying Childers and Newbury Listed winner Sand Vixen in behind when winning the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot; Ran well in Cheveley Park stakes but weakened markedly late on and whether she gets 7f remains to be seen; Not a certainty.

Misheer: Blasted the field to pieces on debut before gutting out listed race win; Then had good spell in Group 2 company since, coming 2nd behind Jealous Again in Queen Mary Stakes before blistering the field in Cherry Hinton Stakes; Blazed a trial and flattened out in Flying Childers Stakes but that not true running; Ran on strongly to nap Lady Of The Desert and looks to have a big chance here on that form; Runs as if she wants 7f.

Mistic Magic: Actually ran as if 7f would suit her when landing a maiden here in June; Hasn’t gone on as expected and this is a tough starting point.

Puff: Won impressively on the AW 1st time out; Form of that race really been working out well with the 2nd winning by 7 lengths next time and then winning a listed race at Deauville; Her 4th in the Lowther was a good run and so was her run in the Chevely Park, so place chances at big odds.

VERDICT: There are major stamina questions as well as those of how well each has trained on, but MSIHEER has some strong form, runs as if she wants 7f and has been the subject of some positive reports regarding her wintering. Lady Of The Desert made an early break for it but weakened markedly late on and is no certainty to stay. PUFF is too big at 8/1 for places. 

Newbury Grenham Day - John Porter Stakes

2.00 Newbury

Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £36,900

Halicarnassus: Tough as nuts horse who got yet another win in Dubai with a valiant all-the-way success over 1½m at Meydan in February; Something amiss last time but hard task on in such a competitive race; Has to give away 3lbs, too.

Akamal: Ran on a real streak in 2009, getting 7 wins and landing 2m Group 3 at Newmarket on final start; This is most competitive event he’s been in and might like softer ground for stamina test, but not to be discounted.

Allied Powers: Largely ran with credit in top company following win in a Hamilton handicap a year ago, but these conditions unlikely to be testing enough for him in all honesty.

Balkan Knight: Performed will in a few races over trips but missed all of 2009 and has not group win; That makes him impossible to recommend.

Dansili Dancer: Appeared to take form to a new level when routing the opposition on his return at Kempton recently; Race very much set up for him and mark (in hindsight) lenient, so work to do.

Furmigadelaguista: Progressed up to listed level last year but ended it on a low note and his fifth is a lacklustre effort last time considering the form his yard were in that weekend; Another one who could be there or thereabouts but needs to bounceback.

Purple Moon: Been off for a long time but arguably the best horse in the field and his runs in Group 1 company give him a big chance here; Apparently had foot abscess keeping him off the track but if all was well you’d have to put him right up there.

Traffic Guard: Has some serious form and if he could get back his career best second to New Approach, he would come under some serious consideration; Also did well when slamming useful horses at Windsor last summer, so palace chances.

Blizzard Blues: Sprung a surprise when landing 10 furlong Newmarket maiden (blinkers on); Would have really benefitted from having those on when racing far too freely in conditions company; Will benefit from having them back up but needs to improve up in grade and trip.

Buxted: Only had three runs (all on polytrack) but has won them all and taken huge step forward every single time, landing listed contest over 1m4f; Possible there’s more to come on turf so considered.  

Claremont: No forlorn hope on UK / Godolphin debut form Al Zarooni; Interesting that he was behind Halicarnassus but his best would give him a major chance.

Harbiger: Vindicated Sir Michael Stoute’s Decision to miss the Derby and Royal Ascot with him when running out an impressive winner of the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood; Went wrong and something obviously amiss when last in Great Voltigeur; Still recovering when excellent third in Group 3 over this course and distance behind High Heeled and will like the ground a lot more today.

Manifest: Didn’t come out of a canter when winning maiden by 19 lengths; Only third behind Akmal in 1m6f listed race but may do better for drop down in trip; Shown plenty of promise but has something to prove.

Oasis Knight: Bettered his handicap win with couple of placings in pattern and listed company but this demands a lot more.

Clowance: Only had 6 runs but has run well in Group 1 company on three of those occasions,  coming fourth in a strong oaks, coming second in the Irish St Ledger and also fourth in the Prix Royal Oak; All those efforts give her great chance and very good price.

Polly’s Mark: Greatly improved last year, winning a listed event in good style, doing it well in the Shergar Cup and also only just getting nabbed on the line in listed company when last seen; Will need more than that to be competitive here.

VERDICT: A fiercely competitive race for a Group 3. Manifest could still be anything, Akmal was on a real streak when last seen, Buxted could have more to offer on turf and Traffic Guard should have a chance if staying. The 2 horses that have run well in Group 1 company are Purple Moon and CLOWANCE, and the former is a real big e/w shout at 15/2. I think Harbinger has the biggest winning shot and at 9/2 he’s a fair price.

Cheltenham April Meeting Day 2

5.00

Freefall At victorchandler.com Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase (Class 3)  (5YO plus)

Winner £6,262

A tricky contest but DE BOITRON had a lot in hand last time and can go close again.

5.30

victorchandler.com Novices' Hurdle (Class 2)  (4YO plus)

Winner £8,454

Pendower could be anything and a big run is likely but RESTLESS HARRY will be hard to beat and was running a huge race when falling at the last in the Albert Bartlett .

6.10

victorchandler.com Novices' Hurdle (Class 2)  (4YO plus)

Winner £8,454

Another short priced pick, but WOOLACOMBE FOLLY put up a really good performance to win the Grade 2 after 2 years off and he’ll like this much more than the Arkle.

6.45

Victor Chandler Hurdle (Class 2)  (4YO plus)

Winner £9,393

A puzzle and a tricky one to solve but KENNEL HILL is actually a good horse on his day, has run some top races in good novice company and is a fair 13/8 shot.

Pick: Kennel Hill

7.50

Victor Chandler 08000 78 78 78 Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)  (4YO plus)

Winner £8,454

BOTHY wasn’t disgraced in a good renewal of the Fred Winter and can get a place here.

Pick: Bothy (e/w)

Best Chances

These are my best chances of the day:

Royal Exchange - 1.35 Newbury

Elnawin - 2.40 Newbury

Kennel Hill - 6.45 Cheltenham

Newbury 16th April 2010

Shortening the previews today, but some quality cards on today.

Newbury

1.35

Erik Penser Bank E.B.F. Maiden Stakes (Class 4)  (2YO only)

Winner £5,181

A good looking maiden on paper with quite a few likely ones.  Except Foghorn Leghorn (same connection that had Winker Waston win this before going onto bigger things) to run well while Red Maling won’t be far away on paper, but you’re always trying to give yourself the best chance you can in these races and ROYAL EXCHANGE comes from a yard that can do no wrong at the moment with juveniles.

Pick: Royal Exchange

2.10

Dubai Duty Free Full Of Surprises Handicap (Class 3)  (3YO only)

Winner £7,477

A competitive handicap with lots of likely types all with chances. This seems an unlikely way to start off OSASIS DANCER’S 3 year old campaign but fact is he’s still got to have every chance even off his current mark and a forecast 8/1 looks slightly big. The next pick is really a dilemma as I think that these two horses are incredibly handicapped. WISECRAIC was fourth in a valuable sales race and only beaten 8 and a half lengths in the Mill Reef yet he gets in off 86. And HIGH CONSTABLE’s mark of 87 looks just manageable considering that he trashed Greyfriarschorista and he has now gone on to record a hat – trick and only got mugged by Classic Colori at listed level. The prices will dictate.

Pick: Oasis Dancer (e/w)

2.40

Dubai Duty Free Double Millionaire Handicap (Class 2)  (4YO plus)

Winner £12,462

An open contest but ELNAWIN must have a strong chance. He’s arguably the best horse in the field, has made his return this year, comes from a red – hot yard and gets 6f, so running freely should;nt be a problem.

Pick: Elnawin (win)

3.10

Dubai Duty Free Golf World Cup Conditions Stakes (Class 3)  (3YO only)

Winner £7,477

I’m very sure that RASMY will go well here, and she could be a really good filly. Take It To The Max looks like he’s up to be shot at under a penalty.  Admission needs to step up but could be anything, while Bullet Train is fancied for the Derby. Let’s go for RASMY as the pick.

Pick: Rasmy

3.50

Bridget Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 4)  (3YO only)

Winner £5,181

A tricky one and the betting will sort out the main contenders (it has gone to the favourite in 4 of the last 6 years).QUDWAH is a likely one to me on paper and she is either be the win * e/w selection. The ones that I like the look of most apart from her Titvation and Ayam Zaiah, so I’ll be looking for support for both. Funky Lady comes from a yard so it it’s burning, and Sonnelino should be right there.  

Pick: Qudwah (e/w)

4.25

Robert Sangster Memorial Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Div 1) (Class 4)  (3YO only)

Winner £4,857

Gakalina, Blast Furnace, Tymora, High Ransom and Bakongo are all likely types, and Mudjeya has lots of promise, but PINK SYMPHONY was a classy juvenile and should hold a good chance with her experience and good form.

Pick: Pink Symphony

4.55

Bathwick Tyres Handicap (Class 4)  (4YO plus)

Winner £4,533

HINDU KUSH pulled his chance away at Ffos Las the other day, but there's little doubt this dual listed winner is potentially well treated at present. SWEETHEART stays all day and is on a good mark to run a bit race.

Pick: Hindu Kush (won), Sweethart (e/w)

5.25

Robert Sangster Memorial Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Div 2) (Class 4)  (3YO only)

Winner £4,857 –

Nouriya looked likely to finish in front of GERTUDE BELL but the extra distance will help her and she does have 2 lengths to make up.

Pick: Gertrude Bell (win) 

Best Bets - April 15th

Time to put up the best bets of the day:

1. Dancing David and Markazzi e/w 3.35 Craven Stks Newmarket
2. Triggerman e/w 3.55 Cheltenham
3. Penny's Pearl (win) 1.50 Newmarket
4. Spring Jim (e/w) 2.10 Chelt

Have great day

Cheltenham

2.10 Cheltenham 


Gloucestershire Trainers Championship Novices' Hurdle (Class 2)  (4YO plus)
Winner £8,454 - 9 run

A really good event here. Captain Chris could be anything, and Pipe Simo has been highly tried on his last 2 runs and was progressive beforehand. Salden Licht should also hold a chance but SPRING JIM'S 6th in the Supreme Novice's was a really good effort and that entitles him to come close here.

Pick: Spring Jim (e/w)

3.20 Cheltenham 


Raceodds.com Mares' Handicap Hurdle (Listed) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)
Winner £17,103 

A wide open race. Kerada would have to hold all the cards now but she was beaten when fancied for the Mares' Final. Banjaxed Girl will be closely matched with her, and there's no guessing who will come out on top. EASTER LEGEND'S last two races gives her an excellent chance here, especially as he was going well when making a mistakes at the festival, and at 17/2, she e/w and e/w price.

Pick: Easter Legend (e/w)

3.55 Cheltenham

Cheltenham Business Club Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)  (4YO plus)
Winner £8,454 -


An open race where you just want to give yourself a chance. TRIGGERMAN's for is solid and I like him at around 15/2 with VCBet. ]


Pick: Triggerman (e/w)  

Undercard - Craven Meeting Day 2

1.50 Newmarket 
E.B.F. Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 4)  (2YO only)
Winner £5,181


Liking the look of PENNY'S PEARL a lot here, and 5/2 isn't too short at all. She's a Royal Applause half-sister to a fairly useful 1¼m winner Breathing Fire and her Dam won as a 2-y-o.


Pick: Penny's Pearl 




2.25 Newmarket 


Ngk Spark Plugs Coachmakers Wood Ditton Stakes (Class 4)  (3YO only)
Winner £6,476 


One of the trickiest races at the meeting, where the betting reveals a lot (if not all) for some punters. The Stoute yard had a winner yesterday so CHIEFDOM PRINCE can get the vote ahead of Squall and Distentric, with Sqyaaq looking like a contender.  


Pick: Chiefdom Prince 


4.45 Newmarket 


Rossdales Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 4)  (3YO only)
Winner £5,181


Eldalil is 40-1 for the Oaks and her debut 6th was not a true running, one a strong maiden, so he can take this. A much more interesting wager is NIMUE, who is insanely priced at 20/1 because she arguably has the most ability in the field. The stalls will tell all for her. 


5.15 Newmarket 


Book For The Irish Classics At Curragh.ie Handicap (Class 3)  (3YO only)
Winner £9,066


This looks to be between Official Style and TAMAATHUL and the latter's 2 wins get him the vote, with a host of fancy entries as well. DIAM QUEEN is the type to progress in this type of event.


Pick: Tamaathul (win) Diam Queen (e/w)

Abernant Stakes 2010

Hard to recommend a horse here but if I was having a wager, I'd go for Equiano.

3.00 Newmarket

Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes (Listed) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £22,708 - 8 run

Able Master: In good form last autumn and his new yard is in decent shape; He does need to improve off those runs to have a chance.

Barney McGrew: Hold-up performer who did pretty well last year, winning York handicap and runner-up in Ayr Gold Cup; Hasn’t hit that form this season thought and the big field that he wants might be lacking.

Doncaster Rover: Hadn’t shown much since promising enough debut victory flowed by a good 6th in the Flying Childers for the rest of his juvenile season; Was a good 2nd behind Danehill Destiny before landing a conditions event in progressive style; Ran two good races in Group/Listed company before a below par seventh and every chance here, as he goes well fresh.

Equiano: Came up well short at Group 1 level last year after finishing second in this race; He wasn’t totally disgraced on those efforts and you would have to give him a chances at this level, in what looks like a an open but weaker than last year’s renewal.

Muillionmileanhour: Only had 3 runs, the second being an excellent third in the Windsor Castle Stakes (form of that race very strong) and an excellent comeback  when third in the Cleeves Stakes; Will be race fit, there is more to come and he would have to be right there.

Golden Stream: Didn’t really shape as though sprinting was her game when last seen in October, but excuses for that defeat; Form over 7f still needs some improving and the drop back in trip may not suit her as much as others .

Retaliate: Little sign of retaining ability since about 2006 and tilting at windmills on debut for another new stable.

VERDICT: A trappy event. Most of these horses would be hard pushed to do as well as EQUIANO has done in the Group 1 events, albeit being well beaten. The main threat is surely Mullionmileanhour, although EVENS AND ODDS is worth a small e/w at 11/2. 

Earl Of Seton Stakes 2010

A very tricky race here Tranquil Tiger is the marginal selection.

4.10 Newmarket

Weatherbys Bloodstock Racecard Earl Of Sefton Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £36,900

Pick: Tranquil Tiger

Steele Tango: Won this last year and went on to record a serious of good performances, despite being set some very tough tasks; Goes well fresh and every change today.

Tranquil Tiger: Not the most hardened of battlers but a good horse all the same who took well to Polytrack over the winter, winning three times; This is a tough tough task on reappearance but he’s got the class and has race fitness on his side.

Kingdom Of Fife: Only one once last season but maintained a steady rate of progress, finishing third and second in Group 3 evens; The form of the last one was quite strong,  with the winner finishing second in the Champion Stakes but might want a longer trip and will improve for the run.

Plavacini: Best price of form would have to be his neck beating of King Edward winner Father Time, however he probably slightly flattered by that considering that the later named has gone on to be better for a strongly run 12 furlongs; Is 3lbs better off with Steele Tango so should be right up close here.

Sans Frontiers: Very talented and very lightly raced colt who has an excellent level of form; His last two efforts, a second in the Craven last year and a third in the Dante make him the best in the race and while signs are positive, he will improve for the run.

Sri Putra: Started out with some average runs but got much better last summer with racing, following a handicap win off a mark of 105 with Group 2 success in France; Seemed to  regress after that but would have a chance on the basis of that run; Chance.

Yahrab: Refinding some of his best form and has been running pretty respectably the this is a tough race to win and he’s not in the greatest of form.

Patchattack: Made an improved effort with blinkers on when runner-up to Enticement in 1¼m listed contest here in October; Beaten twice since (one in conditions stakes) and might be up against it.

VERDICT: A good renewal of this race, with 5 horses having a realistic chance. TRANQUIL TIGER’S race fitness could give him the edge here in a contest where it’s very hard to separate the first 5.

Craven Stakes 2010

Sorry to be really late about this, but it's been tough finding the time to do a preview.

The recommended bets are 2 e/w bets on Doctor David and Markazzi, who are both overpriced.

3.35 Newmarket

Racing Post breezeupbonus.com Craven Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £36,900

Critical Moment: Made a nice debut and got off the mark in good style on his first 2 starts as a juvenile; Not a bad run when fifth in the Horris Hill and trip/ground will suit, but step forward needed.

Dancing David: Very promising maiden win at Newbury considering that he was green from Pillar to post, making all to win impressively; Very good effort to finish fourth in Racing Post Trophy and that form gives him a competitive shot here.

Dubawi Phantom: Won fair maiden in Good style last time out (2nd has won since and was thought highly enough to try Group company); Then went on to run well in succession of races and that form is solid but maybe a little unspectacular.

Edinburgh Knight: Unplaced on only start as a 2 year olds but is 2-2 this year, having landed considerable support in his maiden first time up, and then landed handicap in good style (off 77); Improving and can’t be ruled out, but will need even more than his mark of 90 to win here.

Elusive Pimpernel: Elusive Quality colt who made a very taking debut when winning by a in what looked on paper and turned out to be a decent maiden, before then winning Acomb Stakes with a late charge after losing ground badly at the start; Form of that race worked out really well and his second in the Racing Post Trophy is the leading form.

Lucky General: Improved with racing last year (was good enough when breaking his maiden to be sent into Group company), landing Sales race on his last start; Very useful horse but stamina for this trip is a major worry, though.

Markazzi: Ran into a Group 1 horse in Pounced on his first start and then cantered his way to victory at Leicester; Ran better than his finishing position would suggest in sales race (didn’t get a clear run, on unfavored side) and may not be that far away on his best form.

Mont Agel: Got going late on Yarmouth debut and broke his maiden with smooth success next time out; Open to considerable improvement and stable horse’s look pretty sharp but has work to do.

Morana: Won the Autumn Stakes in gritty style and to be fair had shown some promise beforehand; Behind Doctor David and Elusive Pimpernel in Racing Post Trophy and will need to learn to settle to make more headway.

VERDICT: Another fiercely competitive classic traial with some real promising sorts. Even the Group 3 and maiden wins of Elusive Pimpernel should be good enough to win, but thing might not go his way (wants a fast gallop) and 1m might be a trip too short for him this year (looks already to get 10f on his head). I think he’ll win, but I’m leaving him alone at 11/8. There are 3 places up for grabs and the ones I like for e/w support are MARKAZZI, a potentially group class colt who’s better than this run last time, and DANCING DAVID, who’s Racing Post Trophy form entitles him to be close up here. 

Late morning update

The horses that are saying VALUE to me are (in rank order)....

1 - Music Show 4.10 Newmarket 11/2 top price, win and e/w

2 - Don Carlos 3.10 Newmarket 6/1 e/w

3 - Sona Sasta and Crazy eyes 4.30 Cheltenham e/w

5 - Red Jazz win, Mata Keranjang e/w 3.10 Newmarket

Have a good day =D

Free H'cap

Newmarket 3.35

bluesquare.com European Free Handicap (Listed) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £22,708

Iver Bridge Lad: Well beaten by smart horse in Red Jazz 1st time up and gave that form a decent boost albeit when being well beaten by Moinesur Chevalier in a Newmarket conditions event on his second start; Was always going to make short work of his maiden stakes field at Kempton; Reached new career best when holding out Di Stefano in Sandown listed race; Then ran a series of career best efforts; Chance in this off the mark he has.

Red Jazz: Beautifully bred colt by Johannesburg out of a Sword Dance Mare (Now That’s Jazz), so bred with a near – perfect mix of stamina and speed to last out a strong 6f (should get further); Broke smartly and blazed away to decimate opposition in 5f Windsor maiden; Stepped up on that from when winner of a good 6f conditions stakes at Ascot; Flopped in the Covnentry but good third behind Morny Winner Arcano and that gives him big chance; He will like the trip.

Mata Kerangjang: Fascinating contender having been pitched into listed company first time out and not only that, the form of his race was been boosted by Special Duty, who won the Prix Robert Papin and went on to bigger things.; Hasn’t progressed as much as expected but still holds a high level of form in this race.

Audacity Of Hope: Landed nurseries at Doncaster and Newmarket as a juvenile ; Bit better than result final 2 starts (close third in Group 3 second occasion) so holds every chance in a race like this if bringing that to the table.

Quadrille: : Progressive form at 2 yrs, successful first 2 starts and useful effort when second in 7f Ascot conditions event; Would need to step up a bit on that and maybe he should have won taking into account his useful previous 2 wins but still could be better than his current mark.

Fremont: Did little wrong on the face of things last season, winning his maiden, finding the Coventry Stakes too much and then finishing fourth in a good sales event; Wouldn’t be totally inconvenienced  by a test of speed but others do look more solid;Check market.

Hanson D: Hacked up by 6 lengths last time but that not an improvement based on form of York fourth and was then well beaten in Racing Post Trophy; Didn’t get a clear run when fourth and will have fitness edge but yet to prove he’s well handicapped off his mark.

VERDICT; A fiercely competitive handicap. The two I like most are Mata Keranjang and RED JAZZ, the latter getting the vote because he perfumed well on all but one start last season and based on his last start, was pushing Group class. He’s only had 4 runs too. The Hannon pair are ones to watch and Quadrlle may be worth an e/w bet on the basis of the price.