Premiership 2013/14: Merseyside Derby

Picking the outcome of tonight’s Merseyside derby is by no means a cut and dry affair with both teams having been forced to make major changes, but if there’s one thing that we can be confident on, it’s goals.The Merseyside derby has always been a widely anticipated affair but with Manchester United’s troubles this season opening up a rare potential spot in the Champions League places, this is an absolutely vital game with just one point separating the two sides.

Cases can be made for all three outcomes but a recurring theme of Liverpool’s season has been goals – and lots of them. In scoring 53 goals, (one of just two sides in the Premiership to have achieved that marker), they’ve scored 10 more than any other side in the league baring Manchester City today and have already repaired the benefit of the return of Daniel Sturridge from a long injury to reform a partnership alongside the outstanding Luis Suarez upfront. Sturridge has scored in his last two league games and also hit the scoresheet in Saturday’s FA Cup tie at Bournemouth, linking with Suarez handsomely at Stoke.

Everton haven’t won at Anfield since 1990 although several key injures for Brendan Rodgers’ men, especially that of Lucas Leiva, present an opening for an Everton side that hasn’t suffered at all for the departure of the now much maligned David Moyes. Steven Gerrard’s return, coinciding with the absence of Leiva, has presented a rather uncomfortable dilemma for Rodgers with Liverpool performing abysmally for 50 minutes when Aston Villa visited with Gerrard in a deep lying role, while defensive injuries also leave them vulnerable. Everton’s small squad, albeit a talented one, has been hindered by the big blows of injuries to Seamus Coleman and Slyvin Distin, leaving the 19 year old John Stones to defend against one of the best partnerships in England.

The midfield imbalance makes it hard to get ensured about the 5/6 on Liverpool despite their excellent home record, while over 2.5 goals looks just too short to back at 4/7, but the 23/10 on Liverpool taking all three point without a clean sheets for the sixth time at home this season does have a certain appeal. Liverpool at 8/11 with Stan James to score 2 or more goals, something they’ve done eight times solely at home this season, which looks tempting with the defensive changeup – especially as they’ve let in just 20 this season, while over 3.5 is a tempting 13/10 shot with the two having put three past eachother in the reverse.

Advice

1 pt Over 3.5 goals (13/10 Bet365)

1 pt Liverpool to win and over 2.5 goals (23/10 Bet365)

 

Irish Arkle 2014

1.30 Leopardstown

Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner €52,000

Advice: 1 pt win Mozotlov (3/1 general)

Defy Logic: High class, hard going sort who just ran Naas beginners chase opposition into the ground before being readily outrun by Felix Yonger at Punchestown in Grade 2; Took advantage of big mistake made by Champagne Fever to run away with Grade 1 over C&D here latest and going to take some beating in the same form, especially if getting an easy lead, for all this harder.

Felix Yonger: Progressed hand over first to land Grade 2 hurdle (same one Defy Logic was second in last year) and then finish second in Neptune; Won first three starts chasing, dropping down to this trip with no trouble when beating Defy Logic in style on yielding surface before big reverse in Grade 2 at Christmas, where being held up may not have helped as he failed to give 6lbs to useful stablemate over 2m5f, although suspicion that soft ground didn’t help his cause at all either; That was disappointing but can expect better today even with surface having turned against him.

Irish Thistle: Useful hurdler last year, running into some decent sorts without much success, and good start to chasing career when second to Ned Buntline; Little lucky to be left infront of pick up pieces at Navan latest and dropping down in trip not in his favour; Too much on his plate.

Mallowney: Got the better of Ned Buntline on second chasing starts, but that serves mainly as a serious pointer to Mozoltov, who slammed him at Navan the time before; Needs far more to reverse that form here.

Mozoltov: Raced only twice over hurdles (real lover of deep ground) but slammed his maiden hurdle field before getting better of talented chaser Don Cossack at Punchestown and made a very impressive chasing debut when landing odds on SP to dispose of next time out winner Mallowney in fine style; Recent rain sure to prove massive aid for him and can run a big race here.

Ted Veale: Country Hurdle winner who was quickly and well beaten in Cheltenham Grade 2 in debut over fences/for the season; Long way behind at Christmas in Grade 1 and other days for him in handicap ranks.

Trifolium: Looked to be a new horse for a wind operation when making light of absence of nearly a year at Thurles in November, but roasted by Felix Yonger at Navan from two out after going well early, and Defy logic had his number here over Christmas; Hard to imagine that form being reversed.

VERDICT: A cracking contest with three extremely promising all looking to make a big claim for a wide-open Arkle. Felix Yonger looks to be a happier horse at this trip than further but the overnight deluge is the last thing he’d have needed and this could be between empathic Grade 1 winner Defy Logic and the extremely promising MOZLOTOV, with the latter given a vote to strengthen his trainer’s incredibly strong Festival hand.

 

Irish Champion Hurdle 2014

3.10 Leopardstown

BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner €71,500

Advice: 5 pts win Hurricane Fly (4/6 general)

Captain Cee Bee: Honourable and high class hurdler/chaser, winner of Supreme Novice Hurdle in 2008 and then switched codes with distinction afterwards; Has been on the go for a long time and age seems to have caught up with him judged on latest efforts, for all that he set a good pace here in Ryanair Hurdle.

Hurricane Fly: The outstanding 2 mile hurdler for last three seasons, winning two Champion Hurdles and sweeping all before him in Ireland, taking his tally to a phenomenal 18 Grade 1’s when destroying Jezki and Our Conor  in hotly anticipated Ryanair Hurdle over Christmas here; Former had minor interference in the run and latter epected to improve a lot but neither likely to reverse form here and stone bruise in midweek shouldn’t prevent him from winning once again.

Jezki: Only defeats in 9 starts over hurdles in Supreme Novice Hurdle on first run of this year and then when second to Hurricane Fly in Ryanair Hurdle here at Christmas; Could possibly get closer here with a clear run all the way down the straight, but was beaten by better horse and hard to see a reverse of form here.

Our Conor: Brilliant juvenile campaign promised huge amounts, especially when romping to Triumph Hurdle success on the bridle; First run over hurdles since (had one flat effort inbetween; sustained cut when put him a tad behind) when he was too keen in Ryanair Hurdle before things got going and emptied; Unexposed to a point, but unlikely to turn the form around with winner from that.

VERDICT: HURRICANE FLY’S stone bruise scare might be offputting for some but he wouldn’t be unduly risked and he can beat off Jezki and Our Conor, although the pair might get closer to him with more in their favour today than at Christmas.

Doncaster Mares' Hurdle 2014

2.05 Doncaster

OLBG.com Mares' Hurdle (Registered As The Doncaster Mares' Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £20,787

Annie Power: Underlined her burgeoning reputation as one of the most exciting prospects in jump racing with another, even more comprehensive win over Zarkandar at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, taking it to nine wins without defeat; That level of form is far above what anyone here can offer and dropping down to 2 miles not going to hurt.

Cockney Sparrow: One of the most progressive mares on the circuit, having turned Aintree handicap into procession before returning in style with smooth Wetherby win, and then impressive when second to My Tent Or Yours in the Fighting Fifth hurdle; That form gives her realistic chances of putting up a fight against Annie Power.

Doyly Carte: Progressive and solid as a novice last year when landing listed novice hurdle at Cheltenham amongst others but well behind Cockney Sparrow on seasonal debut; Better last time but still a long way behind the top two.

Alasi: Useful win when landing valuable Ascot Chase off 135 just two starts back; Dual C&D winner in the past but work to do to reverse form with Cockney Sparrow.

Pass the Time: Nothing to suggest she’s capable of racing at this level based on recent handicap efforts.

VERDICT: A treat for Doncaster racegoers as two of the best mares in training, ANNIE POWER, and Cockney Sprarrow, face off in what could be a real match if the latter is able to reproduce her fantastic second from the Fighting Fifth. Willie Mullins’s mare is taken to keep her unbeaten record going strong though.