After two of the most exciting recent Giro and Tour
renewals in recent times – or at least two of the most mountainous – it’s the
traditional highlight of the climbing year as the Vuelta A Espana goes for the
same formula that has given so much happiness in recent times, and why fix
what’s not broken?
With no more than 11 summit finishes and time bonuses
on the line once again to add extra interest, the Vuelta is the tour that comes
down to the man on his bike more than anything - with the range of excruciating percentages
meaning that and I cannot think of anyone better for that task that Giro
D’Italia winner Vincenzo Nibali, who, in the most open of the three grand tours
this season, has a favourite’s chance of winning a third Grand Tour before the
World Championships.
Nibali has been quick to downplay his chances and
stress that a rainbow jersey in Naples is his main aim, claiming that on
‘however things go’ he will ‘look for the overall or the stage win’, but he’s
the best rider in the race from an all round point of view and may have been
yet shorter had this been a confirmed target from earlier in the summer.
The 2010 winner, Nibali finished third in that year’s
Giro beforehand, and was seventh when defending his title having taken third*
in the Giro earlier that year, so clearly has no problem with doing the
Giro-Vuelta double, and did go for the Worlds in 2011 afterwards, albeit no in
his home country on a course that’s sure to suit him afterwards.
However Nibali comes here a far stronger rider than
for any of those two years. After being the only person to throw down a strong
challenge to Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome in last year’s Tour De France, he
dominated the Giro D’Italia, proving to be without equal when the race went
uphill. Following a superb time trialling effort on the eighth stage, where he
lost only a handful of seconds to Wiggins, he racked up summit position
finishes of 3, 2, 7 and 1 the last being a 17 second win to make sure that he
took an open stage of the Giro before winning it. Considering that Rigobeto
Uran was no threat to his GC then let loose on the Altopiano Del Montasio, that
he let Mauro Santambrogio take the win on Bardoneechia, and that the group came
together on the Galbier, it becomes clear just how in control he was, not
losing a second to anyone in an uphill stage. In the Giro’s two time trials, he
handled the technical descents brilliantly to limit losses to Wiggins on stage
7 and outclimed anyone to the tune of a minuite going uphill. The 38km trek
around Tarazona should be an ideal opportunity for him to makeup for the
inevitable ‘bad day’ that all riders have – his own words- including him in
2010 when he lost 23 seconds to Igor Anton and was then dropped on Pena
Cabaraga.
He was nowhere in the Tour of Poland – expected for
his first ride back – but his third at the Vuelta A Burgos hinted at a rider
ready to bid for another grand tour – just like it did in 2010.
Nibali’s competition here is far steeper, headed by
the two riders who lit up this race last year, in Alejandro Valverde (Movistar)
and Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha), two of the best pure climbers going.
Rodriguez had a fantastic Tour De France, unable to
live with Chris Froome early but improving through the race to take a well
deserved third on the final podium with strong finishes upon Mont Ventoux,
L’Alpe D’Huez, Semnoz, and a cracking time trial uphill to Chorges. Leader of
this race for much of last year while batting with Valverde, he should be
placed to make a big challenge once again in the grand tour that has always
been his favourite, while Valverde’s mountain finishes - notably the third of
Ax 3-Domaines and his eighth on Gap D’Huez, - back up the impression that he’d
have been involved had he not suffered a bike mechanical in the crosswinds on
the road to Saint-Amand-Montrond. Our view is that Rodriguez is just the
stronger of the two, but the real worry would be if these two can keep up the
form that they’ve shown since the early part of the season – Valverde started
in March and Rodriguez in January – after one of the hardest renewals of the
Tour in memory that could be their breaking point.
From then on there are a whole host of riders who
could stake a realistic claim for a title bid with none of the top three
infallible. Carlos Betancur’s Giro was one of the most impressive young riders
performances of the season, but the illness that he’s suffered is an
off-putting factor with the first summit finish on the second day. His form
could improve thoughought the race, but Domneico Pozzovivo might be ready to
take the lead and his seventh in Poland recently gives encouragement that he
might be able to make a bold bid. Bentancur may be seen as the leader, but with
the worlds his clear target Pozzovivo may take the lead and the duo work in a
1-2 for mountaintop finishes. A price of 125/1 defies belief, but the 13/8 that
he can reach a second Grand Tour top 10 this year makes more appeal.
Sergio Henao had a desperately disappointing Giro on
the face of it – faltering from early on and finishing only sixteenth – but he
spent that entire race as a domestique to Bradley Wiggins and after his finally
gave up, then Rigobero Uran, who leaves for QPQS in the offseason. Henao’s one
of a generation of young Colombian climbers but his resume isn’t as good as
some notable exceptions. However he was sixteenth in this last year after his
Giro ninth and with that experience behind him, had looked a much improved
rider, winning stages at Vuelta Pais Vasco and the Volta Algarve before taking
second place at La Fleche Wallone. He’s not reached the same heights since, but
has never had full leadership, improved his time trialling significantly based
on his efforts in the Giro, and came back to the boil nicely in Poland when
fifth overall. With surely more to give and the support of Sky behind him, he is
a rider capable of launching a podium challenge for the first time and merits
each/way support at 12’s.
Samuel Sanchez, the ever consistent hero of the sadly
doomed Eustakel team, can expect to make another bold challenge and is in
decent form, but has just fallen short in recent grand tours and may do again,
while Igor Anton is capable of making a big show at some point, over the three
weeks bigger prizes in the past had eluded him. Mikel Nieve can help the two
but a full Tour De France may have taken the energy from him and he was never
present for a summit finish.
Ivan Basso, forced to miss the Giro through a cyst, was
an impressive third in the last stage of the Burgos, dropping Nibali, and has
been tipped to do well by some, but possibly lacks the explosive bursts needed
to take a hand in this race nowadays. The same is not something that can be
said of Michele Scarponi, who deserves a long hard look at his chances and may
be worth support at big prices based on Giro form – he was a good fourth and a
clear one at that – but there is a worry that he saves his best for Italy exclusively
these days.
2011 fourth Bauke Mollema is good enough to take a
significant hand but raced hard through the Tour and faltered late on, which
gives a question as to how much he’ll have left when the race comes to the
third week. Caja Rural’s David Arroyo will be unknown to many Brits but has had
a stellar second half of the season and was being outclimbed only by Nairo
Quinatana on the final stage, and the ex Movistar man can show his face on at
least one or two summit finishes – or a big solo effort at the least – through the
three weeks.
Thibaut Pinot was France’s great grand tour hope for
the foreseeable future after the 2011 Tour but hasn’t had anywhere near such
luck, never in the running after falling sick this time around. There will be
days for him and Kelly Elissonde but this grand tour might not be one of them. Speaking
of forgotten men, Movistar’s Benat Inaxusti, who wore the Pink jersey for a day
in the Giro before a horror time trial but ended up a respectable eighth. The
top 10 finish looks to be a value option at 3/1.
The other markets are harder to nail down than the
overall, with so many teams having more than one rider who could have a spectacular
title challenge or blow completely, making the team classification easy to
avoid. Much like the Giro, the points classification offers a bigger chance to
climbers than sprinters – with 6 stages that can be sprint finishes compared to
11 uphill endings, but it remains to be seen just how in shape leaders
Rodgriguez and Valverde are after a long season, while Betancur’s sickness is
offputting. Nibali is tempting at 6’s, as he took the most points of any
climber in the Giro and will be looking for stage wins too if the overall doesn't go his way. Henao’s two stage wins this season were those of a rider capable of
taking more than one in a Vuelta if on top form too if a chance can be taken on
him.
Advice – Red Jersey
4 pts Vincenzo Nibali (9/4 Paddy Power)
1 pt each/way Sergio Henao (12/1 general)
1 pt Sergio Henao to finish in top three (5/2 general)
1 pt Benat Inaxusti to finish in top 10 (3/1 188Sport)
1 pt Domenico Pozzovivo to finish in Top 10 (13/8 Totesport)
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