Glorious Goodwood Day 4

With the football season now amongst us, there’s no horse by horse for today’s action at Goodwood although subsequent price changes in the morning have convinced me that there’s still enough value in the card to recommend a few.

With the Betfred Mile (3.05) having a lot of variables and not enough obvious value for us – we like Haffaguinea a lot as a horse and have been waiting for him since his Esher Cup run in April but are greatly put off by stall 16 – the King George Stakes is our next port of call with any number in contention depending on what angle you take.

With so many front runners freewheeling early, the pace at Goodwood tends to be hard for even sprint races and countless times over 5 and 6f we see horses that come late take the spoils – the Molecomb Stakes being a typical example as the first two came from halfway through the field and Anticipated nearly took the spoils on the line, tactics Richard Hughes would perfect on Magic City to give himself a hat trick at the end of Wednesday.

William Buick wasn’t quite so good at using those tactics on Excess Knowledge in the Gordon Stakes but if he’s not too far back on Swiss Sprit he has a big chance of taking the spoils in this race yet again, like he did on Ortensia when driving her to success in this race and the Nunthorpe. Infact, if executing those tactics today he’ll have a fine chance with a clear run – there are plenty of other hold up horses today - and the formbook backs us up on this count.

Swiss Spirit was a little disappointing in the Duke of York and King’s Stand, but both those races were far stronger affairs than this one and her unlucky second to Kingsgate Native in the Temple Stakes gives her a great chance here of taking a second Group win today in a race where many re closely matched, have a lot to prove, or need a lot to drop right for them, including Tickled Pink who has had two good wins and two total blowouts this year, so have a lumpy each/way stake at 7/1.

And last but not least, Pavlosk, who raced too prominently in a fiercely run and high class field for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot when last seen, can do much better in the Oak Tree Stakes (4.55). Before she had looked like  Group 1 horse when destroying the opposition in a Listed event at York and it’s likely she’s at least upto this level if not a good bit better than that, so she’s worth chancing at 4/1 if getting in from stall 11.

Advice

2.5 pts each/way Swiss Spirit, 3.40 Goodwood (7/1 general)

1 pt win Pavlosk, 4.50 Goodwood, (11/2 general)