It’s so often said that failing in the playoffs is a mental
curse that can blight a side for years but the last two title winners came from
that route and Brighton can make it a hat trick and finish a sparking three
year transformation from the third tier to the to the Promised land.
Top of the table in the second half of the season, the magic
of Wilfred Zaha undid them in the second leg of the playoffs but they played
some of the best football in the league upto that point and were arguably the
outstanding team in 2013, losing just three times and winning 11 games to
average nearly two points a game, which over the season would have seen them go
up via Automatic promotion.
The sacking of Gus Poyet was both tasteless in the extreme and
absolutely perplexing but his replacement Oscar Garcia – who has three years
with the Barcelona side – should and can have learned plenty judged on the evidence
of his Israeli League win with Maccabi Tel Aviv at the first attempt. The
arrival of Matthew Upson from Stoke could be an inspired move in defence and
while the injury to Craig McKail-Smith is a blow, Argentine Leonardo Ulloa
scored 9 goals in just 15 games last year and is more than capable of leading
the line at least until his return in September.
Former Altaic Bilbao midfielder David Lopez could be a
shrewd addition and could MK Dons’ Adam Chicksen, prized away from MK Dons after
90 appearances in the Football League at the young age of just 24, adding to an
already quality squad which has only Wayne Bridge, now at Reading after a loan
move to Manchester City, to count as a major loss. Wide man Will Buckley is one
of the division’s standouts, with a skill and flair backed up by an astute eye
for goal, while if Liam Bridcutt – who has been chased by about every Premiership
club to even try for this level - can have even half as successful a season as
he did when dominating the midfield last year then plenty of chances should be
created a plenty and Garcia’s men should have no trouble finding a regular rhythm.
At 16/1, they offer by far the biggest value of the promotion contenders and
can go at least one place better than they did last year.
Next best for us is another team to suffer the agony of
playoff defeat last year, Watford. The hornets probably played the best
football in the division last season but found the integration of several
promising foreigners early – they made 10 signings from Serie A proving background
Udinese last summer – saw them lose 7 of their opening 13 matches, which ultimately
cost them a title challenge although many will focus on their last day loss at
home to Leeds and their 1-0 defeat to Crystal Palace in the playoff final, with
a stronger start they could well be called the team to beat.
The Hornets have lost Championship player of the year Matej
Vydra, but barring his departure nobody
else of note has left and the core of last season’s side has been retained and
then built on by Gianfranco Zola and Italian Businessman Giamanpolo Pozzo,
whose decision to use Watford as a proving ground has transformed the clubs
recent fortunes.
Chief amongst the new arrivals is Udinese’s promising attacking
midfielder Diego Fabbrini, who played 19 times in Serie A last season and has a
full international start under his belt, while the addition of Lewis McGugan – prized
away from promotion hopefuls Nottingham Forest – will add even more go forward
from the midfield. Four goals in 14 Serie A games for Udinese last season was
an impressive return for Gabrielle Angella, who could do big things this
season, and Davide Faroni’s top level experience – he played six Europa League
games and 11 Serie A games for Udinese last season – is an obvious sign of
potential.
Assuming all of the new signings bed in quickly – and even
then with a squad already used to the Championship they shouldn’t have as big a
problem as they did last year – then Watford are ideally placed to make a bold
charge for the title this season and look the strongest of the favourites to do
so.
For different reasons, none of the relegated three really
make any appeal. On paper QPR could win this division more easily than they did
three years ago, but on paper QPR should have been fighting for a top half
finish in both their Premiership campaigns and on both occasions they failed
miserably. Relegeation has sometimes left a big mental hangover for clubs who
drop down and if QPR aren’t fully focused, it’s not impossible to imagine them self-destructing
and any one incident could wreck their chances.
Redknapp has instantly decided – wisely – to bolster his
defence as the first port of call, adding Richard Dunne from Villa and right
back Danny Simpson from Newcastle – while expelling several off the negative influences
from last year’s disaster and leaving himself with on paper a squad that is
more than good enough to bounce back. However the internal problems that have besieged
them are clearly an issue and when taking into account QPR’s single figure price
– meaning that only an outright punt is really viable - it should also be remembered
that only Newcastle and Sunderland have bounced back at the first time of
asking by winning the title in the last 11 years and they’re far too short for
a side we’re not even sure will bring their best to the table.
Reading are next best and probably the best equipped to push
for promotion. While last year’s campaign was a toxic one – with just 5 points
from their last 13 games – they’ve done some excellent business in the transfer
market to say the least by picking up
Brighton’s Wayne Bridge, Everton’s Royston Drenthe, and Daniel Williams of
Hoffenheim to bolster a squad that will be led ably by Adam Le Fondre –
potential value in the top scorer market- and Pavel Pogrebnyak, both of whom
can fire into the high double figures at least. Having a pair of keepers as
good as Alex McCarthy and Adam Federici is also a huge bonus at this level, and
Nigel Adkins’s sacking at Southampton had little to do with poor performance.
They may stand a better chance of returning than Wigan, who
had the best players last season and play the best football out of the three,
but have fallen predictably to a fire sale with Roberto Martinex having left
and Arouna Kone and Antolin Alcatraz having also gone with him, while Franco Di
Santo is no longer at the club and Maynor Figueroa has gone to newly promoted
Hull. What’s left is still a good outfit, but Owen Coyle had a nightmare with
Bolton and there are question marks over them.
Fast finishers Bolton and Nottingham Forest can be thereabouts
at least, with the former having recuited aggressively to bolster a squad that
should at the very least be aiming for the playoffs, but both look shorter than
they arguably should be on the evidence of last season with such a tightly
balanced league and some others, Watford amongst them, have at least as much scope
for improvement.
Leicester come into the same bracket but with their
splurging looking to be finally paying off on the basis of last season’s sixth,
they are tempting choices at around 14/1 although their weak finish – they were
nowhere in the second half of the season table – is offputing. With Nigel
Pearson in charge however, they should feel more secure and launch a title bid.
Ipswich too have been a popular shout although much of this
may simply be thanks to the rather inspiring effect that Mick McCarthy had, guiding
them away from the drop zone after picking up the pieces of Paul Jewell's horror
show, and they have made small but notable recruitments. Christophe Berra is
the standout in defence – aiming to bolster an areas which simply must be
improved on all evidence – but Cole Skuse and Jay Tabb should give a solid
platform in midfield for the pair to aim at. They’re a little short of
promotion for us, but in a league where just 25 spots split automatic promotion
from the relegation zone we’ll happily take 18/1 on them getting a 16 point
start on the handicap.
In League 2 both Fleetwood and Portsmouth have received a lot
of attention but Cheltenham’s addition of Matt Richards and Jamie Cureton to a
squad that already has one of the best home records in the football league –
they’ve lost only 7 of their last 46 – and they may have the crucial edge to
push into an automatic promotion spot after playoff disappointment the last
twice.
Advice – Championship Outright
1 pt each/way Brighton (16/1 general) *Now 20/1 after losing in injury time to Leeds on the first day, which is still too big
1 pt each/way Watford (10/1 general)
Advice – Championship Handicap
1 pt each/way Ipswich +16 (18/1 Hills)
Advice – League 2 Outright
1 pt each/way Cheltenham (20/1 general)
1 pt Cheltenham to be promoted (9/2 general)
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