Grand tour tradition is to have the first summit finish at
the end of the first week but this year’s Vuelta a Espana has broken the trend
and had already had a summit finish – a week ago. But today’s charge to the
Costa Del Sol is likely to tell us, if anything, who won’t be winning the red
jersey this weekend.
The Alto De Monte Garcia saw a large selection formed while
three riders contested the win proper but today is likely to be far more
revealing with the Alto Penas Blancas standing at 14.5KM after a flat – and
relatively short – day allowing the Peloton to speed towards the coast, with
the first 125KM taking place in full view of the head and crosswinds – bringing
fatigue well into the equation.
The actual climb is much more conventional grand tour than
super steep climb – wait for Valepaneas De Jaen tomorrow for that particular
exhibition – although the first couple of kilometres go above 12% at times,
which is a perfect opportunity for someone to launch an attack before the
transitional stage – constantly up and down - that comes for 2 kilometres into
the climb before the last 8km that have a steady gradient of 7-8%, (arguably
generous for the Vuelta) with a possible tailwind given the turn taken into
Estepona earlier, it’ll be a a day for the proper high tempo climbers with a
turn of speed and plenty of stamina given the likely high pace.
Vincenzo Nibali said that he was coming into this race at
‘75%’ in terms of his own fitness but has looked in good form all week, holding
the red jersey for all but one day and showing no signs of weakness. He also
heads into the first of two big days with a lead of 21 seconds and above on his
main rivals – allowing him to take the sit and track option with so much
climbing still to come and a time trial likely to suit him. He’s more than
capable of taking today’s stage, but at the same time, we’re likely to see
better from him in coming stages and later days.
Aleajandro Valverde – also eager to point out that the World
Championship is a key aim - is the favourite for today’s race and a strong one
at that, having been active early in the week in a bid to gain extra seconds,
after ending the Tour De France in fine style – most notably when fourth on the
long climb towards Annecy behind the top three in the general classification.
In the possibility that this stage ends in a select group sprint, nobody would
be stronger, and well able to tow the fine line between attacking off big
percentages and tracking the strong pace his Movistar team is likely to set.
While an obvious favourite, he is a worthy one and today has his name written
all over it.
Key general classification contender Joaquim Rodriguez
dominated this race last year and should be going close once again, but the
steeper percentages have always been his game and it’ll be interesting to see
if he’s able to get away on the flatter, more regular sections that dominate
this climb. It’ll be interesting to see also, how the relationship with his key
team-mate Daniel Moreno, who has finished second and won a stage in this week
and looks in the form of his life after successful Tour De France. Both are
potential value options although one would expect that Purito will make himself
present today – taking some of the value away from Moreno’s price.
Sky’s double Colombian pairing of Sergio Henao and Rigoberto
Uran sit at opposite ends of the GC table but both are likely to take a hand
today if given free reign and at 33/1 the latter is too tempting to leave. Uran
was second in the Giro, taking advantage of a lowly GC position to win the
first summit finish by a long way, but then always being with the best. Henao
lost more than 2 minutes on day 2 – with sky blaming ‘a hunger knock’ – and
while all the signs are that they’ll keep with Henao, it’s Uran whose always
shown the better form of the two and it would be a surprise if he wasn’t in the
thick of the action today. Able to cope with the steepest percentages, he’s
also well-versed in high tempo climbing and should enjoy a climb wit a very
even average and plenty of attacking points for him to try something from.
Those who are seeking extra value should look towards AG2R’s
Deomenico Pozzovivo, who has a totally free role and has been climbing even
better here than he did in the Giro based on the evidence of his opening day exploits,
and standing where he does in the general classification, presents no threat to
the leaders.
Advice
2 pts Alejandro Valverde (3/1 Boylespors, Coral)
1 pt each/way Rigoberto Uran (33/1 Sportingbet)
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