Vuelta A Espana 2013 - Stage 8 Jerez de la Frontera - Alto Peñas Blancas (Estepona)

Grand tour tradition is to have the first summit finish at the end of the first week but this year’s Vuelta a Espana has broken the trend and had already had a summit finish – a week ago. But today’s charge to the Costa Del Sol is likely to tell us, if anything, who won’t be winning the red jersey this weekend.

The Alto De Monte Garcia saw a large selection formed while three riders contested the win proper but today is likely to be far more revealing with the Alto Penas Blancas standing at 14.5KM after a flat – and relatively short – day allowing the Peloton to speed towards the coast, with the first 125KM taking place in full view of the head and crosswinds – bringing fatigue well into the equation.

The actual climb is much more conventional grand tour than super steep climb – wait for Valepaneas De Jaen tomorrow for that particular exhibition – although the first couple of kilometres go above 12% at times, which is a perfect opportunity for someone to launch an attack before the transitional stage – constantly up and down - that comes for 2 kilometres into the climb before the last 8km that have a steady gradient of 7-8%, (arguably generous for the Vuelta) with a possible tailwind given the turn taken into Estepona earlier, it’ll be a a day for the proper high tempo climbers with a turn of speed and plenty of stamina given the likely high pace.

 

Vincenzo Nibali said that he was coming into this race at ‘75%’ in terms of his own fitness but has looked in good form all week, holding the red jersey for all but one day and showing no signs of weakness. He also heads into the first of two big days with a lead of 21 seconds and above on his main rivals – allowing him to take the sit and track option with so much climbing still to come and a time trial likely to suit him. He’s more than capable of taking today’s stage, but at the same time, we’re likely to see better from him in coming stages and later days.

Aleajandro Valverde – also eager to point out that the World Championship is a key aim - is the favourite for today’s race and a strong one at that, having been active early in the week in a bid to gain extra seconds, after ending the Tour De France in fine style – most notably when fourth on the long climb towards Annecy behind the top three in the general classification. In the possibility that this stage ends in a select group sprint, nobody would be stronger, and well able to tow the fine line between attacking off big percentages and tracking the strong pace his Movistar team is likely to set. While an obvious favourite, he is a worthy one and today has his name written all over it.

Key general classification contender Joaquim Rodriguez dominated this race last year and should be going close once again, but the steeper percentages have always been his game and it’ll be interesting to see if he’s able to get away on the flatter, more regular sections that dominate this climb. It’ll be interesting to see also, how the relationship with his key team-mate Daniel Moreno, who has finished second and won a stage in this week and looks in the form of his life after successful Tour De France. Both are potential value options although one would expect that Purito will make himself present today – taking some of the value away from Moreno’s price.

Sky’s double Colombian pairing of Sergio Henao and Rigoberto Uran sit at opposite ends of the GC table but both are likely to take a hand today if given free reign and at 33/1 the latter is too tempting to leave. Uran was second in the Giro, taking advantage of a lowly GC position to win the first summit finish by a long way, but then always being with the best. Henao lost more than 2 minutes on day 2 – with sky blaming ‘a hunger knock’ – and while all the signs are that they’ll keep with Henao, it’s Uran whose always shown the better form of the two and it would be a surprise if he wasn’t in the thick of the action today. Able to cope with the steepest percentages, he’s also well-versed in high tempo climbing and should enjoy a climb wit a very even average and plenty of attacking points for him to try something from.

Those who are seeking extra value should look towards AG2R’s Deomenico Pozzovivo, who has a totally free role and has been climbing even better here than he did in the Giro based on the evidence of his opening day exploits, and standing where he does in the general classification, presents no threat to the leaders.

Advice

2 pts Alejandro Valverde (3/1 Boylespors, Coral)

1 pt each/way Rigoberto Uran (33/1 Sportingbet)