In a given season, there are any number of big transfers
before the season and key moments during the campaign but the destination of
the Premiership may have been decided when on the eighth of May 2013, an era
like few others in football ended and one of the most gifted football managers
of all time finally left the dugout for good. And since that day, we have been
convinced that Manchester United’s title is leaving Old Trafford this season. United
have been left facing a more competitive title race then they’d have imagined
while they attempt to retain their crown with at the beginning of a new era,
and while Ferguson’s reign ended in the most magical fashion, things are truly
different right now and United’s structure is a world away from the outfit that
proved so dominant last season by the end of the campaign.
That’s not a prediction of doom and gloom for United’s
future, but this year’s title will be decided upon the here and now and this
may be a more transitional year for United following their 13th
Premier League title, leaving the door wide open for main rivals Manchester
City and Chelsea. New boss David Moyes may be the right man to lead United to
success in the long term and at the least has the full and undivided support of
the club, he’s a huge change from Ferguson who was very much the driving force
behind United’s charge to the title last year.
But as much as Ferguson, alongside Golden Boot winner and
current Golden Boot favourite Robin Van Persie, delivered the title to Old
Trafford, it was a title very much lost by Chelsea and Manchester City. Before
the last campaign had started Roberto Mancini was pointing fingers at those
running the transfer policy, which was eventually proven right with only Matja
Natastic starting over half the league games – and even then the dropping of
Joleon Lescott upset the most successful centre back pairing in the division –
of the five first teamer that arrived, with all others disappointing. But with
arguably a better all-round squad than United that was just the tip of the iceberg
and as the season unravelled – they were always within touching distance until
the end of January where a three game winless streak and a mid-march defeat to
Everton ended their chances – one has to look elsewhere for the blame and while
Mancini has made City’s cash into trophies, his playing style and man
management crumbled under the pressure when it counted last year and the
arrival of Manuel Pellegrini for Malaga could be a masterstroke.
While City had no trouble wearing teams down at home using
Mancini’s much vaunted 4-2-3-1 formation the road they were stagnant,
predictable and all too easily beaten on many occasions, winning less than half
of their games on the road and losing four times and being held to 6 draws,
with the worst record of any of the top five, while his 3-4-3 formation proved
to be uninspiring, unbalanced, and ultimately far outdated for modern football.
However last year, City had more problems than being
predictable and awkward. With Samir Nasri blowing hot and cold David Silva –
after playing practically wall-to-wall football since 2007 with just one summer
off; 2011 – exhausted, the pressure on Yaya Toure rose tenfold and Gareth
Barry’s deficiencies in both the technical and physical sense well exposed, never
moreso than in the FA Cup final where it was hits mistake that led to the red
card for Manchester City, a man short at the time of Ben Watson’s winner for
all that they were totally outplayed.
Pellegrini has taken big steps to change this with the addition
of Shaktar’s Fernandinho, an established class act in all areas of midfield who
has impressed for years at Shakhtar , especially in the Champions League, where
he gave Chelsea no amount of trouble while scoring the winner. His all-round
ability, combined with a more fluent style of play, should really free up
City’s midfield play and just his arrival may rebalance a midfield that has few
equals in the Premier League and that last year was still well capable of
completely outplaying it’s counterparts, like in the second Manchester Derby
and 60 minutes of the FA Cup semi final against Chelsea.
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| City regressed after their title win but have attempted to fix many of their tactical issues since and can go close to bouncing back |
New Fiorentina man Stefan Jovetic is much more of an all-round
creative player who will be able to bring tremendous variety to the forward
play, but has scored 14 and 13 goals in the last two campaigns, while Alvaro
Negredo racked up 25 goals playing for Sevilla last year and hasn’t scores less
than 11 in the last six seasons.
One of City’s major problems going forward was also the
issue of width, which hasn’t been evident at the club for the last three
seasons barring a short lived spell from the often underused Adam Johnson, but
the arrival of Jesus Navas from Sevilla should really help give alternative
options when sides go into full retreat. One of the fastest wingers in Europe,
the main gamble with Navas has been homesickness – he once wasn’t able to
attend Spanish training camps because of his choric condition – but he’s well
over that and now plays a crucial role in opening often stubborn defences for
Spain, much like he did when creating Spain’s equaliser in their crucial Euro
2012 qualifer against France. His pace and skill should be able to light up the
Premier League, while his delivery will also help for the likes of Edin Dzeko
and Alvaro Negredo, who has scored 58 goals alongside Navas in the last three
seasons at Seville. City were outscored by 20 goals last year in the race for
the title but I wouldn’t expect that to be the case this season.
Joe Hart and Vincent Kompany didn’t reach the high standards
that they met in their title winning season, City still conceded just 34 goals
all year and kept 18 clean sheets. There’s a worry that Nastasic’s ankle injury
may be a long term one – surgery has been talked about – but Lescott and
Kompany know eachother well and Micah Richards deserves more opportunity than
he’s seen so far. In any case, a more balanced and vibrant midfield and attack
will surely give City the impetus they need under a manager who broke Real
Madrid’s points record in 2009-10 in defeat to one of the great Barcelona
sides.
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| Jose Mourniho's return could be perfectly timed for Chelsea |
Midfields are seen as the breaking point of modern football, but much of this came as the result of defensive deficiencies and the troubles of
Chelsea’s strikeforce. While Gary Cahill and David Luiz by the end of the
campaign were a solid centreback pairing, at the beginning of the season Gary
Neville’s description of Luiz as 'being controlled by a 10-year-old on a
PlayStation' was more than accurate, while Cahill was caught out time and again
defensively. John Terry is seen as the preferred option but is ageing steadily
and hasn’t hit the heights of old for some time despite his set piece threat
remaining.
Upfront, Fernando Torres’s season (like his Chelsea career with
15 goals in 82 league games) was mostly a disaster and his lack of
self-confidence hurt the club badly when nobody else could be found to lead the
line and while Demba Ba’s move from Newcastle worked in other competitions, he
scored just two goals in the league – leaving the ever admirable Frank Lampard
to take the honours at Chelsea’s top goalscorer with 15.
This season should be different at least with return of
Romelu Lukaku to what we are sure will be the main striker’s position. Seen by
many as the replacement for two time Golden Boot winner Didier Drogba since his
early days, Lukaku hadn’t gotten much gametime when arriving at Chelsea but his
move to West Brome on loan proved to be inspired as he lit up the Premiership
last year, scoring 17 goals in a side that lost much of its early season steam
after the turn of the year with a mix of brute physicality, poise and
intelligent running. His rate of scoring – one goal every 118 minutes – was the
highest in the division and a year older, he looks ready to improve and hit his
peak or the very least reach the same heights again.
As far as attacking midfielders go, Chelsea have three of
the best in world football with Juan Mata, Oscar and Eden Hazard all providing
exceptional quality from both open play and dead ball situations while all
three provide both pace and creativity, especially Hazard and Mata who are well
capable of scoring fantastic individual goals and turning game on their heads. While all eyes were on
Neymar at the Confederations Cup, Oscar was setting the platform for Brazil
with aplomb and arguably rates the most exciting of the midfield options for
Jose this season, who should have everybody at the club working in the right
direction for the first time since they
last won the league under Ancelotti, and a prime title challenge looks sure to
come from the Bridge this season.
We’re not consigning Manchester United to the history books
just yet and feel that David Moyes was a sensible choice given the
circumstances, but there are more reasons than just the departure of Alex
Ferguson and most of his backroom staff.
Last season United, while being worthy and dominant winners,
may have been flattered by their 11 point winning margin given the internal and
tactical problems at both City and Chelsea last season, which allowed a side
led mainly by De Gea, Vidic, Carrick, Rooney and Van Persie to kick on around
the halfway point and then roll on unchallenged to what turned out to be a very easy win in
the end.
Ferguson’s incredible tenacity was once again in evidence as
they reclaimed an extraordinary 29 points from losing positions last year, but
that will be heavily missed even if Moyes’s Everton were hardly an easy team to
play or beat, as United found out to their cost in that famous 4-4 draw.
With the goals of Robin Van Persie saving them on many
occasions – scoring 30% of United’s goals last season and the most on the road
with 14 to earn his team 23% (19) of their overall points tally - United never
lost their momentum last season but this time around things could well be
harder for them. In games against their top four rivals United ended up being
outplayed but taking the wins thanks largely to the work of Van Persie, with
the two most notable examples being their wins at Stamford Bridge and Old
Trafford.
While there were 20 other scorers over the season from the
Red Devils, only Wayne Rooney and Javier Hernandez really contributed anything
notable and United had the benefit of Van Persie staying fit and out of trouble
all year. The much marginalised Rooney,
who has fallen out of favour with many United fans over his perceived attitude
towards the club, actually played an integral role in creating opportunities for
Van Persie and being a linking man in his new, deeper role, turning the
Manchester Derby in United’s favour early and also playing a key role in
beating Chelsea as well, but has been the subject of a projected transfer saga
with Chelsea which indicated that all is not well with his relationship with
the club – something that has been true for a long time according to reports –
and a mentally absent Rooney, with no replacement immediately on the way, could
be extremely damaging and a potential hammer blow to United’s top 6 conquests
for a manager who hasn’t won at the Emirates, Old Trafford or Eastlands.
The other area of doubt for us is United’s midfield, an
areas of significant weakness last season glossed over by opposition failings and
the counter attacking system which used Carrick and Rooney as creators to
exploit the pace of Rafael, Evra, Valencia and Van Persie over the top against
sides that pushed on in numbers when ahead – again a tactic that saw United
take 2-0 leads against both Chelsea and Manchester City.
Michael Carrick had one of his best ever season but he’s by
far the best option they have and they lack depth without him. The arrival of
either Thiago or Cesc Fabregas, amongst a number of midfield options that have
been courted, would have helped matters greatly, but Thiago went to Bayern
Munich and Fabregas looks to be staying at Barcelona. The first choice defence
of Vidic and Ferdinand is more than good enough, but ageing and with the heightened
risk of injury based on recent history, while Ferdinand had a few weak days
last year.
Potential punters shouldn’t be put off by the fixture list –
an often overhyped sign of preseason boredom – which has set Moyes a tough
start with trips to City, Swansea and Liverpool before the visit of Chelsea in
the first 5 games, but United were flattered by their winning margin last year and could struggle to cope with
confident, unified, and skilful camps from Eastlands and Stamford Bridge. They
should be able to take third ahead of ‘the rest’, but the best bet rather than
City or Chelsea would seem to be the dual forecast at 13/5, with the two tricasts
putting United in third both paying 10/1 with Bet365.
Tottenham were edged out for fourth last year by a point for
the second successive season but look ready to move past Arsenal and can take
Champions League football away from Wenger’s men. The Gareth Bale transfer saga
has dominated the headlines during the off season, but the key areas where
Spurs lost a big gap over their North London rivals for the second were the
lack of strikepower – Jermain Defoe had a fine season but scored only 11 goals
and Emmanuel Abdebayor took far too long to find his best form – and the lack
of a prosper presence in midfield with the injury of Sandro in late January.
Regardless of whether Bale stays or goes, the arrival of crack finisher Roberto
Solaldo from Valencia is the move Spurs should have made a long time ago.
Arriving off the back of a phenomenal season where he scored 31 goals in 46
appearances for Valencia and Spain including 24 in La Liga – a total that
rivalled the division’s elite – Soldado will provide a focal point for
Tottenham’s attack that they can rely upon properly through the season assuming
he provides injury with Defoe as backup in a pairing that should be able to
provide at least 30 goals over the course of the season between them.
The arrival of Pauliniho, a standout for Corinthians for the
past few seasons and then Brazil in the last year, means that Spurs are no
longer reliant on Sandro for midfield force and protection, which also means
that in Paulinho, Mousa Dembele and Sandro, Andre Villas Boas now has three
outstanding central midfield options, which could well allow him to use the 4-3-3
setup that served him so well at Porto in style. At the very least, it gives a
lot of protection for Tottenham’s defence and two class alternatives in the
case of injury. With those issues fixed and Arsenal going into battle with
pretty much the same squad, they can make amends for final day heartbreak even
if not playing a part in the title race.
Liverpool are the last team that can feasibly be discussed
as potential contenders and their performances against the other ‘Big 5’ – at least
at Anfield - are those of a talented
team with significant potential, but the all-round balance isn’t quite there
for Brendan Rodgers. As our team by team preview will show, there’s more than
enough potential there to get excited about over the next two or three seasons,
but we don’t feel great about their defence at times and the loss of Luis
Suarez for the first 6 games of the season isn’t an ideal place to start and we’d
rather wait one more year before thinking of the top 4 and two more season
before thinking of anything bigger.
Advice
10 pts City/Chelsea dual forecast (13/5 general)
1 pt City/Chelsea/United (10/1 Bet365)
1 pt Chelsea/City/United (10/1 Bet365)
1 pt Tottenham without ‘Big Three’ (11/4 Ladbrokes)
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