There are some tough acts to follow in football but even Pep
Guardiola has given himself a big challenge by stepping into the boots of Jupp
Henyckes after his treble winning season at Bayern Munich, who start their
title defence tonight at home to Borussia Mochengladbach.
Earmarked for the job months in advance, Guardiola takes
over a team that was the best club side in the world in no uncertain terms last
year. While they mostly stormed to a much deserved European success given their
previous heartbreak over the past few years and held off a German Cup fightback
in the final, it was at home where their dominance truly shone through.
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In taking the title by an astonishing 25 points, the
Bavarians managed to break nearly every record standing last year including
amongst others the most points in a Bundesliga season, (91, beating the 81 set
by Borussia Dortmund in 2011/12), most wins in a season (29, beating Dortmund’s
25 that they set in 2011/12 and Bayern’s of 1972/73, best goal difference in a
season (80), Fewest goals conceded in a season (18), fewest away goals conceded
in a season (7), Biggest winning margin, (25 points), fewest defeats in a
season (having lost just once, while never losing on the road), the quickest
confirmed title win with 28/34 matches played, the earliest confirmed title win
(6th April), the most away wins and points (15/47), and the most matches
without conceding a goal in a season (21) – overall 30 records smashed that
aren’t likely to be broken anytime soon.
On that evidence they should once again hose in, but at 2/9
and with no handicap or speicals markets being run it’s impossible to see where
there’s money to be made backing them over a season and I wouldn’t expect the
margin to be as big this time around.
Pep Guaridola’s appointment was football hipster heaven when
the news was announced but it remains to be seen just how Bayern’s players
adapt to his preffered 4-1-4-1 formation
outside of the family setup that he enjoyed so much in Catalonia, which could
prove to be a point of trouble given how intricately Bayern’s midfield and
attack flowed together under Henyckes.
The addition of Mario Gotze from Dortmund was a protracted
and ill-timed deal which brings a genuinely brilliant player to the club which
also takes away from Dortmund’s own attacking base, and while in Thaigo Bayern
have one of the world’s premier up and coming talents, it’s not a case of improvement
for a squad of such quality and player rotation and squad harmony could potential
begin to become a problem and while their eventual quality should be able to push
them to victory, at such a short price it’s impossible to get involved.
The loss of Gotze might be a contributing factor towards
Dortmund being as big as 5/1 for this season’s title but his loss isn’t the be
all and end all for Klopp’s men. They
still boast the majority of the side that came so close in the Champions League
last term and while they were obliterated in the league, their entire focus had
moved to Wembley a long time before the end of the season and this year a
potentially more settled side should feel like throwing down a decent
challenge.
Robert Lewnandoski was one of Europe’s most potent centre
forwards last year and if in a correct frame of mind, can lead the side in the
same vein as he did last year, while in Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – scorer of
35 goals in the last two years for St Etienne – he has quality support and the
arrival of new man Henrikh Mkhitaryan from Shakhtar – impressive in the
Champions league over the last few seasons and an able enforcer and creator in
equal measure - could prove to be a real masterstroke once he recovers from an
ankle injury.
Elesehwere there are still names such as Reus, Blaszczykowski,
Sahin and Gundogan, while the defensive pairing of Neven Subotic and Mats
Hummels is one of the best in Europe, let alone the league. At 5/1 they are a little
bit tempting to make the race closer than it should be and may well be an idea
to back to lay them.
Dortmund should finish well clear of whoever’s third after
being just a point ahead of Bayer Leverkusen in last year’s final table, but
despite losing two prime talents in Andre Schurrle to Chelsea and outstanding
defender Dani Carvajal return to Real Madrid, they’ve recruited well and can
feel confident of more Champions League football once again this season.
The additions of Heung-Min Son from Hamburg and Giulio
Donati from Inter Milan are two excellent replacements, with Min Son, an
outstanding youth talent and all- time top scorer for South Korea, impressing
at Hamburg last year, and Donati going to the final with the Under 21 National
team for Italy – many Italian observers were dismayed when he left a side that’s
rebuilding with youth as the main aim.
Having also nabbed the promising Emre Can from Bayern Munich
– who was looking for more than just seven appearances a season – and kept
hotshot Stefan Kissling, top scorer last season, Leverkusen look set to make a
bold bid to finish in the top 4 once again and can achive that aim.
Things should be easier for Schalke this year than last
season, when they had to nab a final day win at Freiburg to seal a playoff
place in the qualifying round for this season’s competiton, although the return
of Afellay to Barcelona does rob them of a bit of flankpower which they relied on
at times last season. That said, they’ve bought more than they sold last season
and the arrival of Adam Szalai should ease the burden on Klaas-Jan Huntellar
for goals. It remains to be seen how Christian Clemens and Leon Goretzka fit in
after coming up a division, but Julian Draxler has looked to be a special
talent for a long time and they can steer themselves towards another year in
the Champions League.
Freiburg pushed Schalke to the last game but have lost the
heart of their squad in Cedrick Makadidi and Max Kruse while Leverkusen and
Schalke have made solid signings in key area and look to be much better prepared
for the season ahead this time around and the rest are all playing catchup to a
certain extent.
Advice
1 pt Bayer Leverkusen w/o Bayern and Dortmund (2/1 general)
5 pts Bayer Leverkusen to finish in the top 4 (evs Bwin,
8/11 general)
1 pt Schalke to finish in the top 4 (8/11 general)
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