Nassau Stakes 2013

3.15 Goodwood

Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes (British Champions Series) (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £113,420

Advice: 2 pts win Sky Lantern (2/1 general), 1 pt win Hot Snap (7/1 general)

Ambivalent: Improver last season, ready winner of Newbury Listed event but disappointing when upped in trip, but right back on the right path this season and followed up excellent effort at York and solid Haydock third with Group 1 win in Pretty Polly Stakes, although that came very much as a result of fine riding by Johnny Murtagh; Can’t be dismissed but this has the feel of a much stronger affair and not as much could go her way today. 

Beatrice Auroure: Admirable type who ran a screamer when close fourth at Royal Ascot but not suggests that she’s upto group class here and others make far more appeal.

Moment In Time: Progressing at a rate  of knots since finding middle distances, which makes this drop down in trip rather questionable following career best second in Lancashire Oaks latest; Others make far more appeal here.

Sajjhaaa: Has found career best form since going to Dubai last backend, winning two 1m1f Group 1’s in the spring and then arguably improving on that form when fourth in the Queen Elizabeth Cup, having been forced wide into the straight for fourth; If back on that form today she’ll play a big part but first start since then and always a worry if she’ll be in same form.

Semaayel: Not reached the heights of last year and even then, she doesn’t look good enough.

Thistle Bird: One of the most progressive fillies of last season, completing hat-trick of Listed successes before Celebration Mile second; Group 3 win at Epsom was a solid effort bur stinker latest and not sure she’s good enough or wants this trip so look elsewhere from stall 14.

Banoffeee: Had looked extremely promising when coming from behind to land the Cheshire Oaks but disappointed in the Epsom and Lancashire Oaks and wants much shorter than this for sure Best avoided.

Hot Snap: Looked as if she’d make better 3yo when landing 1m AW maiden in September but couldn’t have predicted she’d be quite so impressive when romping to Nell Gwyn success on debut, with strong field including today’s favourite Sky Lantern in behind; Nothing close to that in Guineas,  when only able to be a one paced ninth as favourite (changed legs come down into dip but never a threat); That run Is easily forgiven in light of her potential to be a Group 1 horse and expect her to enjoy today’s trip, so high on shortlist.

Integral: Brilliantly bred sort who’s already exciting after maiden win here in May and sweeping turn of foot to come through from last to first at Sandown four weeks ago; Will be more to come after only two starts and is going to truly relish 1m2f, so has a lot to be excited about even for such a big step up in class; Should go well.

Just Pretending: Made a lot of late progress in both Irish 1,000 Guineas trial (won) and Guineas itself (third) before excellent runs in Ribblesdale and Irish Oaks; 10f likely to prove her optimum, so sensible each/way option at a price even if she does happen to find one too good.

Just The Judge: Close second to Sky Lantern in Guineas, after which she was an impressive winner in Ireland, but then thrashed in Coronation Stakes, although the margin was exaggerated by being forced well wide from early stages and making effort early; Form still suggests she’s second best but can get closer today and pedigree suggests that 1m2f will be within her range, so must be on the shortlist.

Magical Dream: Progressing handily at three following Group 3 win at the Curragh, second to Alive Alive Oh and then improving for step upto 12 furlongs when second to admirable mare at Cork; Needs serious improvement based on Irish Oaks however.  

Sky Lantern: Showed her class when a clear cut winner of Moyglare at 2 (things didn’t work out in Breeders’ Cup); No answer to Hot Snap on seasonal debut giving weight but when that one disappointed she toughed out Just the Judge to win 1,000 Guineas and then destroying her in Coronation Stakes t Royal Ascot (winning margin flatters her but turn of foot didn’t); Beaten by Elsuive Kate in controversial circumstances for some but that a top class milling filly who then destroyed opposition in Group 1 afterwards; Mixed pedigree for some regarding 10 furlongs but never failed for stamina yet and if able to stay, outstanding chance; The one to beat.

Winsili: Deeply promising when winning Listed race at Newbury on return although she got the run on others in a slowly run event; Raised little effort when only fourth in Ribblesdale but should enjoy the drop back in trip; Not sure she’s good enough to make her mark though.

VERDICT: A fascinating renewal with untold potential from the 3yo ranks and two older Group 1 winners here as well. Of those two, Ambivalent still has something to prove and Sajhaa may not be the same horse that won two Group 1’s in the UAE, so the focus falls back to the younger generation. Some have expressed concern about overnight rain and the step upto 10 furlongs for SKY LANTERN but the three time Group 1 winner has never failed on that count before and sets an extremely high standard for her counterparts to reach. Granted, she could be seen as short with a potentially problematic draw, but the way she dismissed Just the Judge in the Coronation and fought so hard with Elusive Kate in the Falmouth were those of a class act and she can make it four Group 1’s today at the Chief expense of HOT SNAP, who is worth giving another chance after a disappointing Guineas effort, and Just the Judge, with Integral promising to love the step upto 10 furlongs. Just Pretending is a value each/way bet for those seeks a big price.