Sunday Portfolio - 29th January

2 pts Sunderland (4/6 general), FA Cup Fourth Round, (1PM ITV1 & ITVHD)

There’s plenty at stakes in this Wear/Tees derby but home advantage could be a crucial factor and Martin O’Neil can navigate Sunderland straight to the fifth round of the FA Cup. Since the change from Steve Bruce, the Black Cats have won  won six games out of nine and could be unbeaten in four here had it not been for a dubious penalty decision.

Middlesbrough have won two of their last 13 FA Cup games against Premier League opponents, conceded eight goals is in their last three Championship games and have also scored just once in that time, so the home win is attractive despite being odds on.

2 pts Lazio (13/8 Stan James), Serie A (2PM)

Lazio have the better of head to head record (Chievo have only managed to beat Lazio once - in their first Serie A meeting, back in January 2002) and also have an away record bettered only by Milan and Juventus, so the 13/8 they can win at 9^th placed Chievo looks worth taking.

The visitors have been beaten by both Milan teams but going to the San Sirois one of the toughest tasks in Italian football and this is a lot more realistic.

1 pt Equatorial Guinea (13/5 Skybet), Africa Cup Of Nations, (Eurosport 7PM)

Equatorial Guinea are the lowest ranked team at the African Cup Of Nations but they’ve followed in the footsteps of most hosts by winning both their group games in late style, and the price on offer about them doing the same and sealing top spot against Zambia looks well worth taking.

It’s a bit of a shame that Randy – the star performer against Libya and also the scorer of the opening goal against Senegal, is out, but there’s no shortage of incentive  to go for the three points – a massive cash bonus, a homecrowd, and then the possibility of a better quarter final draw. Zambia are a good side, as shown by their comeback against Libya and also their beating of Senegal, but the hosts get the call.

1 pt Valencia (11/10 general), La Liga (5PM Betfair Live Video)

Valencia have shown that once again they’re the third best team in Spain despite losing some extremely high quality players, and they can make it 5 games won on the road at relegation threatened Racing Santander today. They were held at Osasuna in their last League game but were hugely impressive when beating Levante 3-0 in midweek, and have enough about them to take all three points.

Irish Arkle 2012

1.25 Leopardstown

Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novice Chase (grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner €52,000

Advice: 1 pt win Blackstairmountain (13/8 general)

Baily Green: Nine length winner of maiden hurdle in March, then readily held next time in much better company; Yet to win a chase in four starts over fences and has 15 lengths to make up on Blackstairmountain on latest running, so passed over.

Blackstairmountain: Showed eminent promise over hurdles as a novice, winning Grade 1 novice hurdle with plenty in hand; Never got back to that level last year but showed enough to still be ranked as a useful horse, and took to fences extremely well first time out when never off the bridle; Impressed with attitude when catching Notus De La Tour latest and holds 4 of his rivals here on that form, so the one to beat.

Flemenstar: One of the most promising novice chasers seen this season, unable to cope with Bog Warrior on debut before cantering home next time out at Navan; Hard to work very hard for his win at Naas last time out but did it well and should make a bold bid here; Recent rain will help his cause.

Foildubh: Continued progressive form since last season (won at Cork and Tramore) with three solid efforts over fences; Split third in Grade 2 and 1 company (both efforts see him held) with clear cut win at Navan over fences but still seems fairly well held by that.

Gift Of Dgab: Gone backwards since Febuary maiden hurdle win (held in better company) and most of his form since over further, which leaves the impression that he’s going to be outpaced over this trip like he was at Plumpton two runs ago (brought down at the fourth here on Boxing Day).

Lucky William: Decent hurdler in novice days and gets a second crack at chasing having probably suffered dent in confidence when falling (set to win on chasing debut); Has since come back in style though, left clear at the last on return before then winning decent Grade 3; Seems well held based on fourth here at Christmas.

Notus De La Tour: Useful hurdler (rated 141 at his peak and second at the Cheltenham Festival) who made an excellent start to fences, winning easily at Plumpton and Carlisle; Beaten at Exeter but trying to give 8lbs to useful chasing recruits Walkon and Zaynar before running a brave race here, only to get gunned down late on by Blackstairmountain; Should go really well here.

VERDICT: Flemenstar is one of the most exciting prospects in the novice chasing division this season and should go close, although the vote goes to BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN, who holds four of today’s rivals based on his win the equivalent event over Christmas and can be expected to take all the beating assuming that the recent rain hasn't turned the ground into a total bog. Notus De La Tour should again be close. 

Irish Champion Hurdle 2012

2.30 Leopardstown

Bhp Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle (grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner €71,500

Advice (ante – post): 2.5 pts Hurricane Fly to win today and Champion Hurdle (5/2 Paddy Power, Stan James)

Hurricane Fly: Confirmed himself the best 2 miler around without question, winning 5 Grade 1’s in deeply impressive style, the culmination of that from a visual impression probably being his win at the Punchestown Festival; Been off for a long time but has won Grade 1’s on comeback from injury before and sets a clear standard if ready.

Oscars Well: Beginning to comeback to the form which saw him win 2 Grade 1 novice hurdles so impressively, improving markedly on early season form to come decent third behind Unaccompanied and Thousand Stars

Thousand Stars: Has been a revelation over past two seasons, filling the frame in plenty of Grade 1’s last season (best effort when only failing to catch Oscar Whiskey in Aintree Hurdle) and finally got a Grade 1 of his very own when winning the French Champion Hurdle; Handled Oscars Well with ease before being turned over here at Christmas, although one could argue that he didn’t have most made of stamina that day; No surprise to see him go better if sent from the front here.

Kalann: Ahead of Oscars Well the last time they met but significantly worse off now and outclassed here on these terms.

Unaccompanied: Impressive wins on first two starts before Triumph second/Punchestown disappointment (over the top); Impressive reappearance win followed by gutsy Triumph over Thousand Stars and Oscars Well at Christmas (superior flat speed); That makes her the main threat to Hurricane Fly today and not to be underestimated.

VERDICT: The biggest piece in the jigsaw for the Champion Hurdle as defending champion HURRICANE FLY makes his return to the racecourse, and it should be a winning one if his record fresh (4 out of 5 on his seasonal reappearance) is anything to go by. The value’s gone from him to win today, although a double on him to win today and at the Festival is 5/2, which seems worth taking. In terms of who presents the biggest threat, many see it to be Unaccompanied, but a more forceful ride could see things become very close between the two. 

Synergy Security Solutions Novice Hurdle 2012

3.05 Leopardstown

Synergy Security Solutions Novice Hurdle (grade 2) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner €25,675

Advice: 1 pt win Boston Bob (9/4 general), 3 pts Boston Bob w/o Make Your Mark (5/6 Paddy Power)

Boston Bob: Rapidly improved since joining Mullins yard, winning comfortably on seasonal/hurdling debut before engaging overdrive to win Navan Novice Hurdle (Grade 1), with three well regarded sorts behind (including Jetson), two of which have won next time out (second Mount Benbulben was not at his best but still well held); Has to give 7lbs and upwards here to his next rivals but then again so deeply impressive on last start he has to be the one to beat on that form.

Glenstar: Found a good opportunity to break his maiden tag at the fourth attempt and did so in pleasing style (first time he’d ran this winter); This a massive step up in class for him and may be more of a handicap prospect down the line.

Jetson: Broke his maiden after being placed in quite a few decent ones last year (new yard) but since exposed in Graded company, being well beaten by Boston Bob in fourth; Since won handicap in impressive style over 3m and that maybe where his future lies despite being 7lbs better off with Boston Bob.

Sea Of Thunder: Vastly improved for step up in distance when set to run out a deeply impressive winner at Cheltenham but for falling at the last; This a drop down in trip and probably a step up in class for him but still has to be majorly respected.

Springfield Way: Improved from pretty abysmal first couple of starts to win bumper at Navan and maiden hurdle at Gowran for Thomas Walsh, but then well behind Texas Jack and seemed amiss next time out; Good win last time when giving weight and a beating to Physcho in conditions hurdle but even that form may need improving on.

Texas Jack: Made a really taking debut when quickening up well to land valuable Goffs Bumper at Punchestown Festival on debut, and taken that form to hurdles, 2-2 with the minimum of fuss before disappointing at Navan last time; Clearly better than that although this again tougher.

Touch Back: Very impressive the last twice, winning weak race impressively before then coming well clear after the last from subsequent winner here at Christmas Festival; Step up in trip should really suit him and fascinating contender here.

Lyreen Legend: Shown rapid improvement this season, behind the likes of Unaccompanied before winning really impressively against Jenari at Navan; Easily held against Monksland at Naas and once again faces a similar task.

Make Your Mark: Winner of point, bumper and maiden hurdle and as impressive as anyone this season in winning latter, drawing right away from decent field on the bridle; This a step up in grade but will be well up to it and bold show expected.

Owega Star: Needed a large weight concession to get the better of Fully Funded three starts ago and since been well beaten (actually behind Lyreen Legend latest) and looks safely held based on all formlines.

Spring Heeled: Really promising start to life over hurdles when getting better of Jenari (who has since proven to be very disappointing) before being well held there last time out; Others preferred.

Shadow Elie: Ran the progressive Ceol Rua to half a length last week (giving 3lbs), repeating her easy Septemeber win for the first time since (proven very disappointing since); Needs much more.

VERDICT: Such is the impression that BOSTON BOB left when winning at Navan that he gets the vote to defy a 7lbs penalty on better ground today. Graham Wylie’s charge looked in trouble but was superb when finding overdrive and has had the form franked since, which makes him all the more appealing. He must give 10lbs to the equally promising stablemate Make Your Mark, although we can take advantage of this by backing out choice in the “betting without” market. Sea Of Thunder, Texas Jack, and Touch Back are all horses who should be respected and a bold showing from either would not surprise. 

JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Registered As The Finesse Juvenile Hurdle) 2012

12.55 Cheltenham

JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Registered As The Finesse Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO only)

Winner £14,238

Advice: 2 pts win Grumeti (6/4 Bet365), 1 pt Grumeti to win today and the Triumph Hurdle (16/1 Totesport)

Baby Mix: Fifth on one and only hurdles start in France but vastly improved when hugely impressive in beating Hinterland by seven lengths with ease; May be more strength in depth to this but that form more than solid enough and should stake a major Triumph Hurdle claim.

Hollow Tree: Made excellent start to life over hurdles, winning soft event by wide margin before decent, if not well beaten second to Hinterland (who in turn was well beaten by Baby Mix, albeit giving 7lbs); before winning twice since, including Grade 1 at Chepstow; A bit behind Baby Mix on that form but not hard to see him taking a big hand here.

Pearl Swan: Useful enough on the flat despite being a maiden and made an excellent start to life over hurdles when winning all aged novice (one of two in field to have done so) at Taunton; This a step up in class but not to be underestimated for stable with decent hand in this division.

 

Tango De Juiley: Winner at Clairefontine in the spring before this season and has since run very well in defeat twice, both behind stablemates of Grumeti at Newbury on soft ground; Entitled to respect here off levels although this no easier.

Colebrooke: Got the better of two more fancied horses (one of which won impressively yesterday) at Sandown on what was his seventh start over hurdles, taking advantage of the 7lbs claim of Brendan Powell; Needs much more here based on his well held fourth behind Secret Edge.

Grumeti: Possibly the most impressive performance by a novice this season when he routed all aged field on his debut at Taunton, winning by 14 lengths; Form of that event looked solid beforehand (15 length third second to Pearl Swan) and looked set to win before tipping up at Newbury (more on landing); Should take a big hand here.

VERDICT: No “big three” match up with Sadler’s Risk absent but still a select field. Baby Mix was hugely impressive when routing Grade 2 winner Hinterland on his debut and so was GRUMETI when winning by 14 lengths at Taunton, and the latter gets the vote here. He was unlucky on his last start at Newbury, comes from an inform yard, and gets 3lbs from all but one of his rivals, so has an excellent chance of underling his Triumph Hurdle credentials with a win here. Hollow Tree, Pearl Swan, and Tango De Juiley all have their toughest tasks yet but are worthy of respect. 

Murphy Group Chase 2012

2.05 Cheltenham

Murphy Group Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £22,780

Advice: 1 pt The Giant Bolster w/o Aerial (3/1 Paddy Power), 1 pt each/way Poquelin (8/1 general)

Poquelin: Consistent as ever last season although he didn’t live up to tag of favouritism in Ryanair Chase for second season running (albeit his efforts beforehand justifying that favouritism); Ran a disappointing race when fifth and well beaten in the Charlie Hall Chase but much more like it when running a respectable race here last time, looking as if he could get a place when he unseating three out; No reason why he can’t do the same again here.

Woolcombe Folly: Well beaten second to Gauvain looks a little better than it did at the time, for all that he’s still not quite lived upto the promise shown by his two impressive handicap wins over 2m a year ago (one on this card); Dropped a little in the weights but still has a lot to prove.

Tartak: Won valuable handicap a year ago but since struggled (best placed finish is fourth) and needs to find improvement on this year’s form, and has supposedly had two wind ops this season; Needs a drop in the weights.

Aerial: Made a mockery of handicap mark of 126 when romping home at Wincanton before getting turned over in novice chase at Ascot; Showed benefit of wind operation when solid fourth in Paddy Power Gold Cup and clear cut winner of Ascot Graduation Chase; Should take the beating here.

Hell’s Bay: Won the Grade 2 novice chase on this card last year (form worked out well since) and first run of this season since then when pulled up at Ascot behind Aerial; Probably not right on that occasion but even harder to back after his poor run latest despite shaping well for a fair way (right there until push seriously came to shove).

Tamrinbleu: Been in very good form since absence (not out of the first two), finishing close second on debut before solid efforts on heavy ground; Has enough wins on this less testing surface to think that he might even enjoy this surface more, for all this is a step up in class.

Chance Du Roy: Excellent reurn over fences when winning at Newbury and excellent effort on much worse ground when clear second best to Quincy Des Pictons at Chepstow; This a tougher race but being back on his favoured good ground he’s not ruled out.

The Giant Bolster: Takes liberties at his fences sometimes but plenty of class to go with that, as he showed when winning on this card last year in corresponding novice event; Shaped well this season and has strong possibilities granted a clear round of jumping here, so high on the shortlist.

Aradalur: Seemed set for big things when winning Grade 2 over hurdles in 2008 and bounced back from injury in good style over hurdles last season; Not helped by being hampered on return this season but midfield finish in Paddy Power suggests others are better options.

Billie Magern: As game as they come, competing a 4 timer in weak novice events last year but holding his head high when pitched into better company; Won well on his seasonal return here but struggled in better company since.

VERDICT: Aerial’s progression this season makes him fully deserving of favouritism but THE GIANT BOLSTER has just as much scope for a big run off his current mark (gets 7lbs from the favourite) and is slightly preferred, although for betting purposes, taking a price without the favourite is advised. Next best is POQUELIN, who was running a sound race when unseating at the third last in the Paddy Power and has the useful Harry Derham on board to take off 7lbs. He’s only 5lbs higher than when winning the December Gold Cup and on that evidence is worth a play here. 

Argento Chase 2012

2.35 Cheltenham

Argento Chase (Registered As The Cotswold Chase) (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £56,950

Advice: 2 pts win Captain Chris (3/1 Ladbrokes, Bet365), 1 pt Captain Chris to win & place in the Gold Cup (8/1 general)

Diamond Harry: Brought all of his promise together when winning the Hennessy from similarly unexposed rival, moving like class act and winning in good time(Tendon injury kept him out of Gold Cup); Travelled ominously well in Betfair Chase but had no answers to pressure once things go serious, although it may be that he just did need the run; Distance behind Kauto Star and Long Run means that he should be right there at the finish and major player.

Little Josh: Revived by front running tactics last season when landing Paddy Power Gold Cup fron the front with great ride, but same tactics failed him off higher mark at December meeting and then on this fixture last year; Stamina for this trip also not assured.

Midnight Chase: Has improved 36lb on official ratings in last 12 months, winning six of his last seven outings before hugely creditable fifth in Gold Cup; Big chance based on that form and improved from poor reappearance effort when third in the Rowlaynd Meyrick, conceding more than a stone to front two; That effort gives him a sold chance here and loves this C&D.

Time For Rupert: Quickly made up into one of leading novice chasers of last season, bolting up on two chase starts before disappointing at Cheltenham Festival, although that should be readily forgiven (unfit for the race and broke blood vessel); Travelled well on comeback in Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby before being well beaten in the end and same result again in the Betfair Chase, when well beaten (behind Diamond Harry); Won easily in Graduation Chase last time and course record here gives hope, for all that he needs to improve on this season’s form.

Captain Chris: Took his time to get the hang of chasing but made into the leading novice chaser of last year with win in Arkle, followed up by gritty display at Punchestown; Less successful this season, unseating after the last when looking set to win Haldon Gold Cup, and then being held up by training problems before King George third, which was very creditable given that he was likely to have needed the run; Stamina questions for some to ask but his form credentials look very solid and should take the beating here.

Any Currency: Good return from long break (385 days) when second to progressive/classy types in London National; Couldn’t last the slog that was the Welsh National (no shame in that) but beaten too far in handicap company to suggest he’d be taking a hand here last time,

Knockara Beau: Hard to find a more consistent horse over hurdles and chase form isn’t that bad either (still 5lbs below last winning mark over fences); Cheltenham effort is good but well behind Midnight Chase on that form.

The Sawyer: Loveable veteran; Lots of solid efforts this season, including when third here nearly a month ago; Fourth behind According To Pete well beaten just a week ago and hard to see

Tidal Bay: High class hurdler chaser/who went something of a revival last season, running on late past beaten horses in Betfair Chase, Argento Chase and Gold Cup before unseating in Grand National; Decent return over hurdles when shaping as if he retained all ability and of interest getting weight from the main form players, for all that his poor strike rate isn’t convincing.

VERDICT: A better than usual quality renewal of the Argento, and one that could give us a proper contender for the Gold Cup. Diamond Harry and Time For Rupert both have strong claims on their best form, but CAPTAIN CHRIS’s effort when third in the King George is a strong enough piece of form to give him a hand, with the added bonus that he might improve for it having had training problems beforehand. The only possible negative regarding his prep maybe that no market leader has been successful since 1999, although he may not be market leader at the off. Tidal Bay and Midnight Chase deserve respect. 

Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Classic Novices' Hurdle) 2012

3.10 Cheltenham

Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Classic Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £14,238

Advice: 2 pts win Broadbackbob (13/8 general)

Broadbackbob: Improved with experience as a bumper horse last year, when eventually finishing sixth in the Aintree bumper (form has worked out well enough); Since moved to top yard and has been an impressive winner of both his hurdles starts, beating Cinders and Ashes by a length, before winning with ease at Newbury last time out; Should go well here.

Forgotten Gold: Second behind Harry The Viking quickly been boosted and followed that up with good win at Ludlow since; Third behind Barabtos also looking solid now although he’s now even worse in with the second, which doesn’t augur well for his chances here.

Knight Pass: Quickly developed a strong reputation in bumpers, winning twice impressively before festival disappointment; Two from three over hurdles, having disappointed some when beaten under penalty in what’s turned out to be a good race since, and then quickly taking advantage of good handicap mark.

Bowntobebad: Bumper effort promising and then followed up with maiden hurdle win, although he disappointed when bleeding and disappointing two months ago; First run since in 70 days, so that has to be a worry over his chances.

Hawk Mountain: Decent staying handicapper who ended up with a mark of 90 on the flat after his progression; Good start to life over hurdles at Sedgefield but then beaten under a penalty at Market Rasen and this even harder, so passed over.

Batonnier: Above average form over hurdles (better with each and every run), icnlduign when second behind solid yardstick here last time; May well improve once again and interesting from a place perspective.

Catch Tammy: Close but no cigar on bumper debut here but has since disappointed twice, and a line through One Term leaves him well and truly beaten here; May not have liked the heavy ground here on his hurdling debut but needs to improve massively on what’s been shown so far.

Hard To Swallow: Dissappoonting on hurdles debut but running a solid race when going down 2 out in Persian War Hurdle and ran another decent race when fourth here, although he’s strictly held by Battonier on that evidence Should run a respectable race.

Low Gales: Got upto win his point by a neck but never in it on hurdling debut at Doncaster and passed over.

Polisky: No match for Supreme Novices third Sprinter Sacre at Ascot but ran well nevertheless and and Grade 2 came too soon for him at Aintree; Third behind Fingal Bay on his seasonal reappearance makes him very interesting here and presumably ground was too testing for him at Newbury last time behind Broadbackbob, so has to be on the shortlist.

Secret Edge: Made more than a few mistakes on debut at Chepstow when only just losing out late on and major improvement from that led to him winning Listed juvenile hurdle, when making good use of stamina late on (followed up in easier company since); Shaped as if he would be suited by a step up in trip when third in the Finale Juvenile Hurdle, but this isn’t an easy task here.

VERDICT: BROADBACKBOB has impressed in different ways with the style of his two wins this season and he should make a bold bid for a third on the bounce here, despite the likely presence of strong challenges of Knight Pass back off level weights, and Polisky back on better ground. Of the rest – predictably – Battonier makes most approval.