Tour Down Under 2013 - Stage 5

Geraint Thomas (centre) has a big chance of winning today's stage but will
have to if he wants to be in the lead for tomorrow

The Tour Down Under has seen arguably its highest quality renewal with an ever growing number of top class riders having made the journey over, and a larger number of climbs, and the battle for the first general classification of the season comes to a head with the Tour Down under packed tight. Despite the inclusion of an early Cat 1 climb and descent to end stage 2 – which had a crash that took out around 40 riders - the top-20 riders are separated by just 32 seconds and the top 13 together by just 15. Today’s final stage, which has not just one, but two laps of one of the toughest climbs in Australia in Old Willunga Hill, coming after relatively flat stage and ride through the wineries of the east.

Much like many bigger grand tours, the main contenders for the overall win are expected to take part in the stage – with only two mountainous stages in the tour little else could be expected – and of the first 5 in the market, 3 are in the group of 13 that has a realistic race winning shot. Tom Jelte Sagter deserves to be considered strongly for the stage but he was beaten fair and square by Thomas on Stage 2 and won’t have quite the support of the Sky team for today’s climbing assignment, so at 4/1 looks short. Phliips Gilbert would be a cracking shout too at his best, but crashed hard on Stage 2 and while he’s shown he’s alive and well with a third place finish on Stage 3 and a breakaway effort yesterday, today’s climb is expected to be too hard for him twice in a row. Geraint Thomas is just 4/7 to hold onto his Ochre Jersey, yet is 13/2 for the stage win which seems absurd when one considers that he will have to be in the top three – and on the winner’s wheel if it’s not him considering time bonuses – to hold onto the lead,  destroyed the opposition up the Corkscrew Road climb, and probably has the strongest team at his disposal today.

 

Our outright tip Tiago Machado (left and front) probably represents the second strongest team in the race and has already looked in good form through this race despite being caught short by Thomas before the descent – not one of his strongest skills – on the Corkscrew Road climb on Stage 2. Today’s harder test and summit finish should suit him a lot better, with the Radioshack team also potentially there to help  although they do have Ben Hermans and George Bennett, both of whom have been animated so far through the tour. At 8/1 with Sportingbet, he looks like value to supplement our each/way bet on him for the Overall win (16/1 with Coral).

And last but not least, Movistar’s Javier Moreno, who was outsprinted by Thomas on Stafe 2 but has looked solid all tour and will have had something planned for today, given how close he is to the general classification. He at least, shouldn’t be as big as 14/1 for this stage.

Advice

1 pt win Geraint Thomas (13/2 general)

1 pt win Tiago Machado (8/1 Sportingbet)

1 pt Javier Moreno (14/1 Sportingbet)