Harlequins (1/50) v
Connacht (25)
Harlequins can seal their quarter final place with a big win
over Connacht at the Stoop. Now confirmed as the best team in England, Conor
O’Shea’s men have been just as dominant in Europe this season and will win the
pool should they get any points over the Irishmen, which is a formality
according to the markets. Connacht have been good opposition for the Quins so far, winning one clash and
narrowly missing out on bonus points with eight-point defeats in two of those
games, while they went down only 23-19 here last year. However this season
Quins look to be twice as good, and a 19 point winning margin is probably
achievable if O’Shea’s men give their all; However, the stakes should be kept
small.
Advice: 1 pt Harlequins -18 (10/11 general)
Toulon (1/50) v
Cardiff (25)
Toulon suffered a shock home defeat for the first time this
season last weekend but should get back on track with a convincing win against
Cardiff Blues. The Frenchmen have covered every single handicap they’ve been
given so far this season (just about in the cases of away wins at Cardiff and
Sale) and while Cardiff were superb in winning over Munster, this is a
different level. The second half handicap (45 of their 62 points came after the
break against Sale) appeals as well, moreso than the 22 points given on the
general line.
Advice: 3 pts Toulon -11 on second half handicap (10/11
general)
Zebre (6) v Biarrtiz
(1/5)
This looks easily the
most avoidable game of the weekend. Biarritz are notoriously poor travellers
who have failed to convince with any of their Heineken Cup performances this
season while Zebre have no wins in all competitions to their name, for all that
they gave Ospreys a mighty scare in the Pro12. The suggestion is to their back
the home side on the handicap or to back a narrow away win, with the preference
being for the bigger priced narrow away win.
Advice: 1 pt Biarritz to win by 1-12 points (15/8 Coral)
Racing Metro (10/11)
v Saracens (11/10)
A pivotal game in Pool 1 with Racing Metro fresh off the upset
of the season in France after their incredible win at Toulon, and Saracens
travelling here knowing that qualification rests in their own hands. Racing are
a formidable outfit on home turf and should put in a massive challenge but
Saracens are more than proficient on the road – they’ve already won at
Northampton and Harlequins – and look value to gain a narrow win, with the 1-5
point margin appealing most and unders in the points and try markets also
making appeal.
Advice: 1 pt Saracens to win by 1-5 points (5/1 general)
Clermont (1/25) v
Exeter (18)
Exeter have put up a magnificent fight in Pool 5 but are
facing Europe’s best home record and were absolutely hammered by Clermont at
Sandy Park in the reverse fixture. Given how Clermont scored 36 unanswered
points in the second half that day (something they also did against the
Scarlets, albeit with a red card to help) a 2nd half handicap of
just 9 points has to be taken with William Hill, while their general handicap
of 18 also looks worthwhile to have onside.
Advice: 4 pts Clermont -9 on 2nd half handicap
(10/11 Hills), 2 pts Clermont -18 (10/11 Hills)
Leinster (1/40) v
Scarlets (22)
Leinster are facing the potentially unthinkable situation of
missing out on the Heineken Cup quarter finals but they can rack up a big win against
Scarlets, who have fallen apart in the Pro12, losing their last 2 road games by
29 and 30 points to the Ospreys and Ulster respectively. That suggests that a
handicap of 20 points is more than achievable and looks to be well worth
supporting with the home side having a stronger team out than at any stage of
the competition so far.
Advice: 3 pts Leinster -20 (10/11 general)
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