It’s so often the tie for famed giantkillings and upsets,
yet, the FA Cup is a tournament which is reliable as any for picking a winner
based upon trends. In 19 of the last 25 years, the cup winners have been a team
who were in the top 6 upon the start of the third round, and only eight different clubs have lifted the famous
trophy. Portsmouth and Everton are the only clubs to have broken the
stranglehold of the Big 6 in that time, and is looks to be wise to concentrate
on them in terms of finding the winner.
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| Manchester United have one of the best squads in England and an FA Cup run should be high on the list |
Roberto Mancini’s Manchester City, winners in 2011, are
favourites at 5/1 and have a relatively easy third round tie against Watford
(albeit a free flowing one) on paper to start their campaign, but it’s surprising
to see City rivals Manchester United, who lie a giant 7 points ahead of them in
the league, at a bigger price to
underline their status as the most successful side in the competition with a remarkable
12th victory.
Sir Alex Ferguson’s side haven’t won since 2004, but have
reached the final twice since then and also made two semi-finals in that time,
so have been knocking on the door hard in the interim despite their lack of
success, while a fourth round defeat at Liverpool bought no shame with it
considering that side’s subsequent run to the final last year. This season
United look to be coming into the competition with their best league form for
sometime, leading neighbours City by 7 points with the rest nowhere, and the
Red Devils’s much famed attack has scored a startling 54 goals already this
season. Much of that is down to Arsenal’s foolish sale of Robin Van Persie to
the club, but Ferguson has plenty of options too choose from upfront now, with
Javier Hernandez and Danny Wellbeck likely to be upfront for United’s ties in
the competition, while it’s not hard to imagine Robin being used in the substitute
role, or starting should United feel the need. Whichever way you look at it,
that’s an excellent attacking trip for a competition such as this and if one
needs any more convicting of their strength in depth, the team they went to take
on Chelsea in the Capital One Cup contained Hernandez, Wellbeck, Nani, Anderson
and Rafael; It took Chelsea most of their first team in extra time to gain a
5-4 home win.
A trip to Upton Park is not an easy one, but they’re still
just 2/9 to progress and have played and beaten teams with better home records
so far this year (see below) already and Two massive away draws last year did
for them but this year they’ve already beaten Manchester City, Liverpool and
Chelsea on the road, which gives huge confidence in that regard should they
draw another of the big 6 away from home.
Manchester City have the talent to go far in this competition
and did knock United out on the way to winning it in 2011, but it’s hard to get
excited about their chances at just 11/2 and this year’s vintage are performing
far below the dizzying heights of last season. Yes, their tie against Watford
at home is one they should win and yes, they’ve got almost limitless reverse of
players, but they’re up against in the title race as things stand already and an
away draw is a worry with only 5 wins on the road in the league so far.
Chelsea’s exceptional record in this competition – four wins
in 6 years is absolutely remarkable – must be commended, and they have the midfield
to take any team in the competition apart on their day. However their 1-0 loss
to QPR with a strong side on paper raises some strong questions about what
would happen without even a handful of their all-conquering midfield in a difficult
tie, which is exactly the nature of their third round trip to Southampton
today. Their count of games without Juan Mata reads played 5 and failed to win 5, while they’re
14 pints behind United in the league, so others make more appeal at the moment
although if a full strength team is played they can easily win; their fixture
today will tell a lot.
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| Spurs arguabaly have a stronger side than last year on an all round basis and can go far in the FA Cup |
Tottenham are unlucky not to be higher in the table after
some extremely difficult fixtures so far, and are getting ever closer to a
first trophy based on their improvement in the Premiership and also two semi-final
appearances in the last three years, going out to an inspired Chelsea side in
last year’s semi, and then being unlucky enough to get drawn away to Manchester
United twice on recent occasions. They’re more draw dependent than most but a
home tie against Coventry is an excellent start and they did beat United on
their own turf in the league this season.
Andre Villas Boas tends to play strong teams in cup
competitions - Jan Vertongen, Tom
Huddlestone, and Michel Dawson all started at Carlisle in the Capital One Cup –
and can now call upon not only hi impressive range of first team regulars, but
the likes of Scott Parker, Benoit Assou Ekotto, and in the latter stages one
can envisage him playing a good side in the latter stages, while his side are
now much better quipped not only take on bigger sides, but deal with tough away
trips, as they are the leading’s scorers on the road in the Premiership.
Arsenal don’t make appeal given that they’ve not won a
trophy since winning this in 2005 and have a much weaker side than in years
gone by, while a tie away to Swansea, deserved 2-0 winners in London recently,
is an awful draw. Everton, semi-finalists last year and on their best run of
form at the beginning of a season since taking fourth spot, will attract many
and have an excellent home tie to Cheltenham, but they’re likely to concentrate
all their efforts upon reaching the top 4 and while having a quality first 11,
are not blessed with as big squad as others. Considering their position in the
league (seventh), West Brom could have been looking forward to facing QPR
beforehand but they were blessed with some questionable referring decisions to
win that tie and will now face a side resurgent after a midweek win at Chelsea.
Liverpool were finalists last year and
were very impressive in this competition, but are eight points off Spurs in
third place at the time of writing and still blighted by the problems which
hampered them last season. With Champions League qualification still mean to be
at the forefront of their minds – if one can believe so – they might also
rotate, and in any case only eight wins, tells the story of a vulnerable team
this year.
Of the other sides in the Premiership Swansea would make
considerable appeal at their best, for all that their chances might be more reliant
than one would want for an outsider on the brilliant Michu and Stoke, who have
reached at least the last eight in the past three seasons and were losing
finalists in 2011, make more appeal than many at a large 40/1. An away trip to
Crystal Palace is not an easy one to start off with, but Ian Holloway has made
changes with his side at the top of the Championship and we all know how hard
they are to beat at home.
Advice
3 pts win, 1 pt each/way Manchester United (7/1 Bet Victor,
Youwin, 13/2 elsewhere)
2 pts win, 1 pt each/way Tottenham (11/1 Bet365, Bet Victor,
10/1 elsewhere)
1 pt each/way Stoke (40/1 general)
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