Edinburgh (5) v
Munster (2/9)
Munster badly need a
win here to keep their hopes of a quarter final place alive, especially given Saracens’
storming win yesterday, and they can get it although their 17-6 loss to Cardiff
last week is a serious concern, especially given how it took place at home.
However Edinburgh are an inferior side to even that of Cardiff and have lost by
more than the 9 points Munster are being asked to give up on every single
occasions in the Heineken Cup, including at home to Saracens and Racing Metro.
The temptation is simply to back Munster to cover the handicap especially if
Edinbrugh’s defence goes to pot, but a fairly full strength Leinster won by 15
points (admittedly with the help of a late try) and the 11-20 winning margin
actually makes more appeal from a value perspective. 8 of Munster’s last 9
Heineken Cup games have been under 40 points, so the 10/11 on under 43.5 also
makes some appeal here, especially if Munster can keep the home side quiet (let
in just 28 points in two games against Saracens).
Advice: 1 pt Munster to win by 11-20 points (5/2 Skybet),2
pts Under 43.5 points (10/11 Bet365)
Ospreys (10/11) v
Leicester (11/10)
Before I even start the preview, no matter what, if backing
either side, do it by the 1-12 winning margin; It’s the most common winning
margin in European rugby, especially when top class sides meet. With Pool 2 so
tight, this could arguably be the game of the weekend with both sides needing to
win here to keep quarter final hopes alive, and that’s reflected by the
bookmakers making this a scratch affair. Leicester won the reverse fixture by a
big margin but they were flattered to do so, and much like Toulouse, will find
the going far tougher in Wales than at home and Ospreys fantastic recent run of
form at home, barring that disappointing performance against Zebre – 6 unbeaten
including a 17-6 win against Toulouse – potentially spells big trouble for
Leicester, who were unconvincing against Treviso in their double header and
have been shaky in general on the road. With Ospreys having beaten Leicester at
home twice in recent season and suffering only one loss in their last 20 home pool
games the home win is a tempting call, but the absence of critical forwards Ian
Evans, Alun Wyn Jones and Aaron Jarvis, along with Ashley Beck at centre,
dampens a lot of appeal. With Leicester having been behind in 7 out of 10 Premiership
matches this season (and 8 of their last 10 Heineken Cup away games), and
Ospreys having literally vice versa in stats (they’ve led at at home in 8/10
European home game and 7/10 Pro 12 games) the Ospreys/Leicester double result
at 15/2 with Ladbrokes (it’s around 7’s elsewhere) is by far the best value,
with the Ospreys double result also looking like value for those interested.
Advice: 1 pt Ospreys/Leicester (15/2 Ladbrokes, 7/1 general)
Toulouse (1/66) v
Treviso (25)
Toulouse need to, and should get a bonus point victory over
Treviso, but a handicap of 26 points looks on the large side give the Italians’s
improved efforts this season and they’d have covered that line on their two
trips to the Liberty Stadium and Welford Road. Toulouse have the team to tear
them to shreds but they’ve had a brutal schedule of late and may ease up once
the bonus point is safe.
Advice: 1 pt Treviso +26 (20/11 Ladbrokes)
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