Munster (1/20) v
Racing (18)
Munster can make a bold bid for an unlikely looking quarter
final place with a big win over Racing Metro, who have come here with a second
string side following defeat to Saracens in that game that once looked so
promising. The absence of Ronan O’Gara should not be a problem with Ian Keatley
in such fine form, and with a second string Metro side, Munster should be able
to set a high benchmark for Toulouse and Leicester later on. Back the hosts to
score more than 28 points.
Advice: 1 pt Munster to score more than 28 points (4/5
general)
Saracens (1/25) v
Edinburgh (22)
Saracens can seal
their quarter final place in style with a big win over an Edinburgh side a shadow
of what they were a year ago. The hosts were exceptional when winning at Racing
Metro last week and are tempting to either cover the 18 point handicap mark or
score 32 or more points, having scored 45, 30, and 37 points in games against
teams other than Munster.
Advice: 2 pts Saracens to score more than 32 points (4/5
Blue Sq)
Treviso (7/4) v
Ospreys (4/6)
Nothing more than pride is at stake here which makes this a
game to avoid for betting purposes. An interesting stat to note is that Treviso
have led at half time in 6 of their 7 home games this season, and their last 4
in the Heineken Cup, while the visitors have railed at half time in 7 of their
10 road trips. The Treviso/Ospreys double result is 13/2 and the best port of
call.
Advice: 1 pt Treviso/Ospreys (13/2 Paddy Power)
Leicester (4/6) v
Toulouse (8/5)
This is arguably one of the ties of the season, with the permutations
of Pool 2 meaning this is essentially a ‘winner takes all’ straight knockout
game – Toulouse can only force the Tigers for a bonus point assuming that they
pick up a losing bonus and score 4 themselves – with Leicester taken to grab
the pool and a quarter final spot at the expense of the four times winners.
Leicester were naïve in the extreme when going down 23-9 in the reverse fixture
on the opening weekend but are a force to be reckoned with on home soil, unlike
Toulouse, whose struggles on the road have been more profound than ever this
season with defeats at Bordeaux, Grenoble, Biarritz, and Perpingan in the Top
14, while Ospreys exposed them badly in their round 4 defeat. The suspicion is
that Toulouse aren’t the same team as in previous years, especially on the road,
a suspicious which is backed up by a record of 3 defeats on the road out of
their last 5 games, and at Welford Road the hosts have just enough to edge an
win by 1-12 points.
Advice: 4 pts Leicester to win by 1-12 points (6/5 Paddy
Power)
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