Saturday, 19 January 2013

Heineken Cup 2012-13 - 20th January 2012


Munster (1/20) v Racing (18)

Munster can make a bold bid for an unlikely looking quarter final place with a big win over Racing Metro, who have come here with a second string side following defeat to Saracens in that game that once looked so promising. The absence of Ronan O’Gara should not be a problem with Ian Keatley in such fine form, and with a second string Metro side, Munster should be able to set a high benchmark for Toulouse and Leicester later on. Back the hosts to score more than 28 points.

Advice: 1 pt Munster to score more than 28 points (4/5 general)

Saracens (1/25) v Edinburgh (22)

Saracens can seal their quarter final place in style with a big win over an Edinburgh side a shadow of what they were a year ago. The hosts were exceptional when winning at Racing Metro last week and are tempting to either cover the 18 point handicap mark or score 32 or more points, having scored 45, 30, and 37 points in games against teams other than Munster.

Advice: 2 pts Saracens to score more than 32 points (4/5 Blue Sq)

Treviso (7/4) v Ospreys (4/6)

Nothing more than pride is at stake here which makes this a game to avoid for betting purposes. An interesting stat to note is that Treviso have led at half time in 6 of their 7 home games this season, and their last 4 in the Heineken Cup, while the visitors have railed at half time in 7 of their 10 road trips. The Treviso/Ospreys double result is 13/2 and the best port of call.

Advice: 1 pt Treviso/Ospreys (13/2 Paddy Power)

Leicester (4/6) v Toulouse (8/5)

This is arguably one of the ties of the season, with the permutations of Pool 2 meaning this is essentially a ‘winner takes all’ straight knockout game – Toulouse can only force the Tigers for a bonus point assuming that they pick up a losing bonus and score 4 themselves – with Leicester taken to grab the pool and a quarter final spot at the expense of the four times winners. Leicester were naïve in the extreme when going down 23-9 in the reverse fixture on the opening weekend but are a force to be reckoned with on home soil, unlike Toulouse, whose struggles on the road have been more profound than ever this season with defeats at Bordeaux, Grenoble, Biarritz, and Perpingan in the Top 14, while Ospreys exposed them badly in their round 4 defeat. The suspicion is that Toulouse aren’t the same team as in previous years, especially on the road, a suspicious which is backed up by a record of 3 defeats on the road out of their last 5 games, and at Welford Road the hosts have just enough to edge an win by 1-12 points.

Advice: 4 pts Leicester to win by 1-12 points (6/5 Paddy Power) 

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