Ulster (1/12) v
Glasgow (14)
Ulster’s arguably unlucky defeat to Northampton means that
this pool isn’t over yet but they’ve been the outstanding team of the four by
some way and they should have more than enough to put a foot in the quarter finals
- they must travel to Castres next week - with a convincing win over Glasgow at
Ravenhill. Glasgow’s recent run of form has seen them catapulted to second in
the Pro12 table, but Ulster are 11 points clear of them and have won two of
their last three home games – the other being Leinster – by 30 and 25 points,
so the handicap of 16 is of interest. However Glasgow have been the form team
barring Ulster in the Pro 12 and put in big efforts at both Saints and Castres,
so there’s an element of doubt. More secure areas look to be Ulster to score 32
or more points – or maybe the second half handicap of 9 points. The men from
Ravenhill have outscored teams in the 2nd half in 15 out of their 17 games this
season and in all eight games at home, while Glasgow – who are suffering a
serious lack of injuries (including the absence of a proper prop) with Barclay
,Cusack ,Cusiter , Fainga’anuku , Fusaro, Gillies , Hunter, Jackson, and Lamont
all out – could suffer after the break.
Advice: 2 pts Ulster -9 on 2nd half handicap
(10/11 general)
Sale (9/2) v
Montpellier (2/7)
Sale have shown small signs of improvement in recent weeks
but are far more concerned with Premiership survival and won just 2 of their
last 14 league games, those to two teams who had a combined record of 5 wins on
the road from 53 games. Montpellier have been one of the most impressive teams
in the completion barring a defeat to Toulon at the Stade Felix Mayol – a regular
occurrence for all manner of teams – scoring 103 points and 10 tries in the
three games since. Admittedly a lot of
those came at home, while they had the benefit of being a man up for a lot of
their trip to Cardiff Blues, but they’ve bought their best side to a struggling
Sale Sharks outfit and should be well upto covering the handicap here. 9 points
would be manageable (there are 7 and 8 point deficits being offered which are
even more tempting) but the second half
margin of 4 looks even better and so does the winning margin of 11-20 points.
Advice: 3 pts Montpellier -4 on second half handicap (10/11
Betfred), 1 pt Montpellier to win by 11-20 points (5/2 general)
Northampton (1/12) v
Castres (11/2)
Northampton have to win to keep their hopes of a quarter final
place alive and they can do so in style against Castres, who have made an exceptionally
strong start to the season in France but struggle very badly on the road, with
only 5 wins on the road in Heineken Cup history and their three Top 14 wins
having come against the bottom three teams. Northampton have been given a lot
of criticism for defeats against the Premierhip’s top brass but they were within
a penalty kick of winning at Saracens and were always well on top at Exeter, a
venue where only a full strength Clermont Auvergne side had come away with
points before. With Castres having also named a pretty strong team, this isn’t a
game to get too involved in, and the 11-20 winning margin looks to be the best
single bet available.
Advice: 1 pt Northampton to win by 11-20 (9/4 general)
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