Copa Del Rey - Barcelona v Real Madrid (1st Leg)

Those who say you can never have too much of a good thing are advised to tune into the fourth El Claisco of this current season already between Real Madrid and Barcelona, with the Catalans taken to inflict yet more woe upon Los Blancos and take a vital first leg lead in their Copa Del Rey semi-final. Barcelona lost out in the league last season by 9 points but have come back stronger than ever on all evidence with a record breaking start to La Liga this season. With 21 games gone they have an astonishing 51 points and have scored 71 goals, a new La Liga record. For those who might have some worries about the fact this game comes at the Bernabeu, Barcelona have scored 37 goals on the road this season as well.

Madrid have raised themselves for the big games this season – they won the Supercopa after trashing Barcelona for a good half an hour which could and most likely should have reaped more than the two goals that won them the tie – but 15 points separates them in the league and Barcelona have to be the value call tonight.  Barcelona's last three wins in the Clasico have all seen them come from behind, so the both teams to score and Barcelona to win option might be value, along with the 11/4 on them to win by 1 goal.

Advice

1 pt Barcelona to win by one goal (11/4 Blue Sq) 

Irish Champion Hurdle 2013

1.55 Leopardstown

BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner €71,500

Advice: 2 pts Hurricane Fly to win by 3-8 lengths (11/8 Skybet)

Binocular: Much vaunted 2010 Champion Hurdle winner who looked like he was approaching something like that form when winning Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton in good style last February; Only fourth in last year’s Champion Hurdle (behind Hurricane Fly by ¾ of a length) but given plenty to do on that occasion and still a player in that scene, for all that he’s not won on 4 seasonal debuts and is taking on Hurricane Fly on home ground; Viable betting ‘without option’ though if ground not a problem for him.

Captain Cee Bee: Veteran of the game now at 12 (beat Binocular in 2008 Supreme Novices Hurdle and then Grade 1 winner over fences as novice) and still retains good amount of that that ability judged on Tipperary Grade 2 but expecting him to be brushed aside today.

Hurricane Fly: Lost his title of Champion Hurdler at Cheltenham and felt slightly laboured at Punchestown afterwards but easy to forget he’s been beaten just twice in last three seasons; Many of the opinion that he was below best at Cheltenham for one reason or another and also that he looked to have best form back given way he jumped and travelled over Christmas, but should have won as he did that day; Should win again today on route to Champion Hurdle.

Thousand Stars: Remarkably consistent horse who won his third Grade 1 when winning French Champion Hurdle at Auteil (that having come after his close Aintree Hurdle second two runs previously, along with convincing trial win) but miles below that when fourth on return at Tipperary (might have needed run) although no better over Leopardstown at Christmas; Needs further nowdays.

One Cool Shabra: Racing for a potential share of fourth (around 3,000 euros) and no chance here.

VERDICT: Binocular is probably the strongest opposition HURRICANE FLY has had outside of the Cheltenham Festival, but he’s not won on his seasonal debut for four successive campaigns, hasn’t run on ground this soft, and is 0-2 in head to heads with the 2011 Champion. The 11/8 on Hurricane Fly winning by 3 to eight lengths, a winning distance he’s achieved in 5 of his hurdling wins, looks to be the best course of value. Binocular is a heavy favourite in the markets for second place but might be vulnerable even in that regard if Thousand Stars can find his best form. 

Today's Racing - 27th January 2013

The recent dearth of top class racing feels a mile away after yesterday’s superb action at Cheltenham and Leopardstown – where we go today – with several festival clues and contenders revealing themselves after a terrific trials day, despite the heavy ground. The most valuable of those may well be At Fishers Cross for the Albert Bartlett given how he ran down The New One in such style on the long run in, but where today’s action is concerned, the 11/8 on Glen’s Melody winning without favourite Zuska in the race looks to be the best in the upcoming Mares Hurdle at Leopardstown (12.55).  Glen’s Melody was thrashed with some ease by Zuska on their last start and that should be the same story again this time around, but the rest of the field doesn’t look upto much – certainly weaker than that Grade 3 – and it’s easy to forget that the Mullins second string, who holds a comfortable 7lbs advantage on RPR’s over the third in the betting, Jennies Jewel.

Advice

1 pt Glen’s Melody to win without Zuska (11/8 Ladbrokes)

Tour Down Under 2013 - Stage 6

The first UCI World Tour event of the season ends tomorrow morning with The Tour Down Under’s final stage into Adelaide being little more than a procession for Tom Jelte Slagter, who took the spoils with a fantastic burst as all but him and Simon Gerrans totally burst on the second ascent of Old Willunga Hill. Geraint Thomas sadly couldn’t take it for Britain, but that may have been a lack of conditioning more than anything and he’s still a rider of immense potential for not only the big classics, but also Grand Tours of the future with more improvement – he said that he was only here to ‘burn his track fat’ beforehand.

As for today’s stage, Gripel winning his 14^th stage here looks to be a foregone conclusion here and at a best priced 9/20 he’s no value, and with the each/way terms being either for the first two places, or 1.5 the odds at reduced prices, the best value looks to be in the match sprints. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare was second to Greipel on Stage 2 and while he was a lacklustre 9^th on Stage 4, he’s beaten Marcel Kittle on 4 of the 5 stages here. Kittel has struggled to gain his best form since suffering health problems ast year and shouldn’t be as short as 3/5 to win this match.

Advice

1 pt Arnaud Demare to beat Marcel Kittel (13/10 Bet365) 

Cleeve Hurdle 2012

3.35 Cheltenham

Rewards4Racing Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £34,170

Advice: 2 pts win Reve De Sivola (5/2 Blue Square, 2/1 general)

Oscar Whisky; The class act of this field, winning Aintree Hurdle for the past two years and being unbeaten outside of the Cheltenham Festival over hurdles when staying upright; Those defeats came in Champion and World Hurdle, crucially in today’s context looking like stamina was a big issue for him in the latter contest; Today’s ground not an issue, but likely that stamina will be called into play today and vulnerable on that score.

Reve De Sivola: Once very useful novice hurdler (second in Cheltenham Festival 2m5f Novice) but has lost his best form over fences a bit before come back to hurdles, staying on well to take second behind Big Buck’s at Newbury and then destroying field with stamina in Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot (3m1f, heavy); Conditions set for him to attempt same today and will take good horse to stop him doing so in what should be a strongly run race.

Lovcen: Not taken to fences, or replicated the form that saw him win a Grade 1 last season in novice company (3m, Aintree, good); Chance if refinding his best form but doubt he’s upto unless market speaks otherwise.

Carruthers: Top class on his day over fences (won several chases as novice, and then Hennessey) but all our nothing style is literally that and best days look to be behind him.

Crack Away Jack: Fourth in 2009 Champion Hurdle but not quite as good, even if he’s still very useful backed on mini revival that he’s had since moving to Tom George’s yard, with seconds in last 3 races over hurdles; one of those a 19 length thrashing at hands of Oscar Whisky and others make more appeal.

Cross Kennon:  One of most suited in the field to an out and out slog over the trip but not shown any form for long time barring two good runs in Haydock Grade 2 and handicap here;  Both those run had come on heavy but might be outclassed anyway.

Kauto Stone: One of most talented horses in this field on his day, with 2 Graded wins over fences to his name at Down Royal; Complete King George flop over Christmas worrying but if cheekpieces and hurdling bring him back to best, then possible chance here getting 8lbs from principals; Interesting to watch in running for exchange players.

Knockara Beau: Front runner with plenty of class on his day – has been runner up in this race 2 years ago, and sixth in Gold Cup – but lacklustre Kelso run doesn’t suggest that he’s in the best of form.

Walkon: Formerly top class juvenile hurdler who has shown flashed of that talent since comeback from injury, showing best effort over fences when three length runner up to Al Ferof in Paddy Power Gold Cup; Ground not a problem but one doubts his stamina for this test.

Kentford Grey Lady:  Second to Quevega at the Festival and looked set for more success this season when romping away with 2m4f handicap hurdle at Sandown, but disappointing there next time when only third earlier this month; Not sure she’s got the class for this.

Verdict: Oscar Whisky is the best of these by some way but on his only try at 3m, floundered badly in the World Hurdle having travelled into contention nicely for most of the race. With the ground as trying as it is today and several front runners in the race, he can’t be backed and REVE DE SIVOLA, who was so dominant in the Long Walk from the front, has an ideal chance to try the same tactics again with many of his rivals coming into this with stamina doubts or poor runs behind them. 

Classic Novices Hurdle 2013

3.00 Cheltenham

Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Classic Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £17,085

Advice: 3 pts Coneygree w/o The New One (5/6 Ladbrokes)

At Fishers Cross: Took hurdles record to 3 wins from 5 starts when completing hat trick in good style over 3m here latest (pulled well clear of runner up), supplementing easy winners at Ffos Las and Newbury; Clearly improving at rate of knots but this demands yet more of him against serious opposition and others appeal more.

Coneygree: Half-brother to Carruthers (same connections) who showed similar qualities when romping Grade 2 here over 2m4f (soft) and followed up in style when winning 3m contest in style here latest, giving impressive beating to highly rated chaser reverting to hurdles; Should go well here, with ground the softer the better for him.

The New One: Impressive bumper performer, only defeat coming at Cheltenham Festival, and even then he was a ready winner over very classy My Tent Or Yours; Unbeaten since, deeply impressive in three hurdles wins including novice hurdle here and Grade 2 at Warwick by 16 lengths (did so easily); This toughest hurdling assignment but has bags more to give; Won twice on soft ground.

Whisper: Bare form of impressive bumper and novice hurdle wins are no more than fair but impression he created suggested he could hold his hand in far tougher company and could still be open to any amount of improvement; Should do himself credit here even if not upto best.

Fiddlers Bid: Plenty of promise in bumpers, not least when destroying his field at Ascot in November; Went well for long way on hurdling debut and should come on from that but this a different ball game.

VERDICT: A very strong renewal with two of the most impressive middle/long distance hurdlers this season meeting two of the most progressive. Any one of Whisper, At Fishers Cross, CONEYGREE and Tthe New One can be given a big chance, with preference for the latter assuming that the ground doesn't turn extremely testing, although his rival, twice a Grade 2 winner this season at this track, should make him work very hard and looks to be a rock solid bet without the favorite  especially with the deep ground sure to suit him and his aggressive front running style today.

Argento Chase 2013

2.25 Cheltenham

Argento Chase (Registered As The Cotswold Chase) (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (5YO plus) 
Winner £56,950

1 pt each/way Cape Tribulation (8/1 general), 3 pts Cape Tribulation to beat Quarts De Thaiix (5/6 general)

Midnight Chase:  Beat Tidal Bay by nearly 3 lengths last year in this giving him 6lbs but easy to argue that runner up is in far better form now and lacklustre effort when pulled up Lexus did not argue well for his chances; Needs more here to retain this.

Wayward Prince: Produced two solid displays this season, more than respectable second behind Silviniaco Conti being followed by strong listed win at Aintree (race fell into lap a little, but good attitude shown in dire conditions); Stamina a strong suit that he can use but can’t see him playing anything more than a supporting role

Weird Al: Class act on his day when all comes together (usually best fresh) but not been at his best over this C&D twice in recent season (pulled up in last two Gold Cups) and 2011/12 campaign rather petered out after an excellent start; Others preferred here.

Calgary Bay: Very much unproven on anything but good to soft and peak form (landed big handicaps here and at Doncaster last term) not good enough to challenge best of these.

Cape Tribulation: Pulled terrific handicap double at big festivals over hurdles last year and continued in the same vein judged upon his wide margin win at Wetherby on Boxing Day; This much tougher but got his act together and if conditions deteriorate overnight then would be player with front running style.

Hey Big Spender: Graded class horse on his day, as he showed when earning a mark of 156 for winning good handicaps at Newcastle and Warwick; Lost his way a bit since then.

Grands Crus: As talented as any horse in the field based on his novice chasing campaign, although not found the form to match his Feltham success since and worrying that his two blowouts have come at this course (clearly not at best though);Travelled so well for long periods of King George third on atrocious ground on first run back since the operation and given great chance at weights here but worry that this will become test of raw stamina.

Little Josh: Dug deep for Grand Sefton Chase win on heavy ground but needed falling mark to do so then and this trip, along with this much better class of race, a big stumbling block.

Quarts De Thaix: Proved himself well able to cope with 3 miles when winning at Bangor and Haydock and only just outside in big for a hat – trick here over 3mn1f (heavy) in handicap; This demands another leap forward and probably reliant upon others floundering to play a big role.

Hunt Ball: Back on the right track – one of jump racing’s most popular horses after last season’s meteoric rise, including clear cut in in the handicap chase here at Festival when second in Peterbough Chase, a remarkable effort considering how averse ground conditions were; If conditions stay decent here then should be respected but stamina potential flaw.

Imperial Commander: Arguably the best horse in the lineup today by some way, having trashed Denman in 2010 Gold Cup (also past Ryanair winner) and won Betfair Chase in same year; Chucked in at the weights too (3lbs and upwards from rivals) but been off since finishing lame in 2011 Gold Cup; Did love running fresh at prime and potential to give them all a run for money but may need this run a touch too much to win; Watch market.

VERDICT: A really intriguing renewal, with some top class staying chasers appearing here, but all of them having questions to answer. Grands Crus has been given a great chance at the weights, but heavy ground and this course bough him to standstill in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and he is unbackabale here with testing ground over a longer trip. 2010 Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander has no worries on that score but one has to ask if a horse who has been off for 680 days can really be fit enough to take a race like this. In such deep ground over an already testing course, maybe CAPE TRIBULATION can use his stamina to good effect, and he looks to be well worth an each/way bet at 8/1; He should also be well backed in a match bet against fellow handicapper Quarts De Thaix. 

Victor Chandler Chase 2013

1.50 Cheltenham

Victor Chandler Chase (Registered As The Clarence House Chase) (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus) 
Winner £39,389 

Advice: 1 pt Sprinter Sacre to win by 10-15 lengths (11/4 Skybet)

Kinkeel: Not good enough to be considered.

Kumbeshwar: Took advantage of tiring Sancutaire to take well beaten second when runner up to Sprinter Sacre in the Tingle Creek at Sandown, but that form reversed empathically when second to him over the Christmas Holidays at Kempton and looks set to finish well behind him once again; Minor role at best.

Mad Moose: Refused to race on seasonal debut and while he’s been OK over hurdles, last win in 2m5f novice chaser here last April on good; Lacks the speed or quality to get involved.

Oiesau De Nuit:  Winner of the Grand Annual in 2011 and convincing winner of Kumbeshwar (boosted that form with every subsequent run) on reappearance at Chepstow but flopped last time here in near identical conditions when lacklustre sixth behind Shooters Wood in C&D handicap.

Sanctuaire: Top class and capable of anything on his day, as his spectacular, all the way, 17 length win in Celebration Chase at backend of last season from Somsersby (soft) showed, making it 3-3 over fences at the time in most brilliant fashion; Has since had those same tactics backfire spectacularly and then work to perfection on last two occasions, thrashing Kumbeshwar over Christmas after having blowout in Tingle Creek; Should go well once again but no match for favourite.

Somersby: Beat current Champion Chaser Finian’s Rainbow when winning this at Ascot last year (first Grade 1 win and deserved too) but no match for Sacntu7aaire at the end of season in Celebration Chase; Goes well but imagine that he will need this and not sure he wants heavy ground either.

Sprinter Sacre: One of the best novice chase campaign seen for years last season, unbeaten in 5 with aggregate victory margin of 66 lengths, producing stunning performance in Arkle to top the lot here; Done nothing to suggest his dominance could be challenged when strolling to Tingle Creek win, his much anticipated duel with Sancutaire a non-event thanks to that one overdoing it on the front; Should win well here.

VERDICT: It’s a testament to the organizers of today on any counts that SPRINTER SACRE lines up here, and racegoers should be rewarded with another of his impressive performances against rivals he’s easily beaten before. Sancutaire should get second but he’s not the value we expected, so the winning distance markets look to be the best bet. Sprinter Sacre has won four of his 6 Chse starts by more than 10 lengths, so the 5/4 that Stan James offer on that eventuality seems more than fair, with the 11/4 that Skybet offers for a winning margin of between 10 and 15 should also have it’s takers too.

Tour Down Under 2013 - Stage 5

Geraint Thomas (centre) has a big chance of winning today's stage but will
have to if he wants to be in the lead for tomorrow

The Tour Down Under has seen arguably its highest quality renewal with an ever growing number of top class riders having made the journey over, and a larger number of climbs, and the battle for the first general classification of the season comes to a head with the Tour Down under packed tight. Despite the inclusion of an early Cat 1 climb and descent to end stage 2 – which had a crash that took out around 40 riders - the top-20 riders are separated by just 32 seconds and the top 13 together by just 15. Today’s final stage, which has not just one, but two laps of one of the toughest climbs in Australia in Old Willunga Hill, coming after relatively flat stage and ride through the wineries of the east.

Much like many bigger grand tours, the main contenders for the overall win are expected to take part in the stage – with only two mountainous stages in the tour little else could be expected – and of the first 5 in the market, 3 are in the group of 13 that has a realistic race winning shot. Tom Jelte Sagter deserves to be considered strongly for the stage but he was beaten fair and square by Thomas on Stage 2 and won’t have quite the support of the Sky team for today’s climbing assignment, so at 4/1 looks short. Phliips Gilbert would be a cracking shout too at his best, but crashed hard on Stage 2 and while he’s shown he’s alive and well with a third place finish on Stage 3 and a breakaway effort yesterday, today’s climb is expected to be too hard for him twice in a row. Geraint Thomas is just 4/7 to hold onto his Ochre Jersey, yet is 13/2 for the stage win which seems absurd when one considers that he will have to be in the top three – and on the winner’s wheel if it’s not him considering time bonuses – to hold onto the lead,  destroyed the opposition up the Corkscrew Road climb, and probably has the strongest team at his disposal today.

 

Our outright tip Tiago Machado (left and front) probably represents the second strongest team in the race and has already looked in good form through this race despite being caught short by Thomas before the descent – not one of his strongest skills – on the Corkscrew Road climb on Stage 2. Today’s harder test and summit finish should suit him a lot better, with the Radioshack team also potentially there to help  although they do have Ben Hermans and George Bennett, both of whom have been animated so far through the tour. At 8/1 with Sportingbet, he looks like value to supplement our each/way bet on him for the Overall win (16/1 with Coral).

And last but not least, Movistar’s Javier Moreno, who was outsprinted by Thomas on Stafe 2 but has looked solid all tour and will have had something planned for today, given how close he is to the general classification. He at least, shouldn’t be as big as 14/1 for this stage.

Advice

1 pt win Geraint Thomas (13/2 general)

1 pt win Tiago Machado (8/1 Sportingbet)

1 pt Javier Moreno (14/1 Sportingbet)  

Tour Down Under 2013 - Stage 3

It’s only the second stage of the Tour Down Under but it’s sure to be one of only two days that has an effect upon the general classification and the cream of the crop is expected to rise with the three favourites for the title filling the three favourites for the stage. A lumpy stage from the beginning, with very little truly flat sections throughought the day, the defining feature if the inclusion of Corkscrew Road, a 2.40KM climb with an average gradient of 9.4% which should sort the men from the boys. Edvald Bosson Hagen is the favourite but has been well beaten on both the opening ‘stages’(including the Criterium) and looks too short in comparison to World Champion Philippe Gilbert, who can take advantage of the rapid descent and flat finish to take the stage ahead of Simon Gerrans, who should enjoy racing on a course which bears many similarities towards the course which he took Milan-San Remo upon last year. 

Advice

1 pt win Phillipe Gilbert (7/2 Skybet)

UCI World Tour 2013 - Tour Down Under

After what seemed like such an amazing year in sporting terms, let along in Cycling, professional Road Racing returns this year with the Santos Tour Down Under, the start of the UCI World Tour for the year, and Orica Green Edge can give their home crowd reason to shout again with Simon Gerrans (left) fancied to take his third win in this race. Winner of this race on two occasions (once in 2006) and last year, when needing countbacks to beat a returning Alejandro Valverde after being outsprinted at the end of Stage 5 with Old Willunga Hill, which was the deciding factor in the race – it practically decided the final standings amongst the top 10, with only Jan Bakakelants actually changing positions after that - for the second straight season following several sprint dominated renewals in the 2,000’s.

This year’s renewal, in keeping with attracting an ever improving field, is far more testing with climbs such as Checker Hill and Corkscrew Road all coming before the double visit towards Old Willunga Hill on Stage 5, even if 4 of the 6 stages should end with a sprint, assuming that the peloton can reel in the many breaks that will develop with the early climbs on each stage.

The two stages that should actually play any part in deciding the winner are Stage 2 – where the Peloton must traverse Corkscrew Road before a fast and furious descent to the finish – and the typical queen stage with Old Willunga Hill being climbed twice.

It’s a route which should see the race go to a climber, with a classics specialist likely to be pushed very hard to keep pace with the elite climbers on Old Willunga Hill, and that’s if they kept pace with the best on Corkscrew Road – and one which makes Gerrans an extremely worthy favourite. Able to go with the best on Old Willunga Hill, as he showed last year, he should be at the forefront of proceedings on Corkscrew Road and will crucially have been training to be at his best – or as close as possible to his best - for this tour, with this being Orica Green-Edge ‘s home event. Gerrans’s win in Milan-San Remo last year shows his excellence for not only going it alone, but also for the one day classics style of racing that will decide this race on Stages 2 and 5, and with a lumpier route this year, nothing seems to have changed to stop him from being a worthy bet for the Ochre Jersey once again.

Sky send a strong, classics focused squad which is riding in support of Edvald Bosson Hagen, but he was dropped on Old Willunga Hill last year and looks more likely for the points jersey once again this time around. He’s tempting at a best price of 7/1 given his obvious talent, but others make more appeal. World Champion Phlippe Gilbert is an obvious contender given how he destroyed the Cauberg on his way to that title, but it’s yet to be seen how strong his form is for the earliest of early season races and the pure steepness of Old Willlunga Hill might not suit; He’s a major contender for Stage 2 if staying with the leading group though.

It’s 16/1 bar the three although if any one of Simon Clarke, Geraint Thomas, Thomas De Gendt and Andy Schleck were confirmed to be in their best form, the prices on them would be serious gifts (all above 20/1) but none of the four can be counted upon to be on top form, which leaves Tiago Macahdo as the best value alternative at a tasty 16/1 with Coral, who will pay ¼ the odds for a podium finish. Third last year, Macahdo was 11^th on the Queen Stage of the Vuelta A Espana and should be suited by this year’s route.

Advice

2 pts win Simon Gerrans (7/2 general)

1 pt each/way Tiago Machado (16/1 Coral) 

Premiership - Tottenham v Manchester United

It’s only January yet the Premier League title race is already a two horse contest and Manchester United can keep their neighbours and title contenders at arm’s length win a crucial three points at White Hart Lane over fellow highflyers Tottenham. A trip to Andre Villas Boas’s men is not one to relish in any sense of the word but United are 4 points clear at the head of the league with 15 point advantage over fourth placed Spurs after just more than half the season gone and already have a glittering record of big game successes to their name.

Alreadyin their 18 victories United have been to Manchester City – a venue where the hosts had been unbeaten in the league for a whopping 37 games – Chelsea, and Liverpool and taken all three points, while they have eight wins on the road and an astonishing 26 goals on their travels – just 4 less than their home games, remakrbale considering that Old Trafford plays host to one of the strongest  league records in the country.

Tottenham did beat United 3-2 in October at Old Trafford and are an obvious threat in their case for the double but United have improved their forward play even more since then, evidenced by the fact that they’ve scored first nine times in their last nine games. Tottenham also have a very poor record against other top teams barring their 3-2 success at Old Trafford, losing at Manchester City, Everton and Arsenal as well as being beaten 4-2 by Chelsea.

They might just fall short against an in form and rampant at times United, but can play their part in keeping the visitors on their toes. Of their 24 wins this season in all competitons, United have won 16 by a single goal, while on their travels in the Premier League, United have won 3-2 on 4 occasions, making those choices look like value options.

Advice

1 pt Manchester United to win by 1 goal (3/1 Stan James)

1 pt 3-2 Manchester United (40/1 Bet365) 

Heineken Cup 2012-13 - 20th January 2012

Munster (1/20) v Racing (18)

Munster can make a bold bid for an unlikely looking quarter final place with a big win over Racing Metro, who have come here with a second string side following defeat to Saracens in that game that once looked so promising. The absence of Ronan O’Gara should not be a problem with Ian Keatley in such fine form, and with a second string Metro side, Munster should be able to set a high benchmark for Toulouse and Leicester later on. Back the hosts to score more than 28 points.

Advice: 1 pt Munster to score more than 28 points (4/5 general)

Saracens (1/25) v Edinburgh (22)

Saracens can seal their quarter final place in style with a big win over an Edinburgh side a shadow of what they were a year ago. The hosts were exceptional when winning at Racing Metro last week and are tempting to either cover the 18 point handicap mark or score 32 or more points, having scored 45, 30, and 37 points in games against teams other than Munster.

Advice: 2 pts Saracens to score more than 32 points (4/5 Blue Sq)

Treviso (7/4) v Ospreys (4/6)

Nothing more than pride is at stake here which makes this a game to avoid for betting purposes. An interesting stat to note is that Treviso have led at half time in 6 of their 7 home games this season, and their last 4 in the Heineken Cup, while the visitors have railed at half time in 7 of their 10 road trips. The Treviso/Ospreys double result is 13/2 and the best port of call.

Advice: 1 pt Treviso/Ospreys (13/2 Paddy Power)

Leicester (4/6) v Toulouse (8/5)

This is arguably one of the ties of the season, with the permutations of Pool 2 meaning this is essentially a ‘winner takes all’ straight knockout game – Toulouse can only force the Tigers for a bonus point assuming that they pick up a losing bonus and score 4 themselves – with Leicester taken to grab the pool and a quarter final spot at the expense of the four times winners. Leicester were naïve in the extreme when going down 23-9 in the reverse fixture on the opening weekend but are a force to be reckoned with on home soil, unlike Toulouse, whose struggles on the road have been more profound than ever this season with defeats at Bordeaux, Grenoble, Biarritz, and Perpingan in the Top 14, while Ospreys exposed them badly in their round 4 defeat. The suspicion is that Toulouse aren’t the same team as in previous years, especially on the road, a suspicious which is backed up by a record of 3 defeats on the road out of their last 5 games, and at Welford Road the hosts have just enough to edge an win by 1-12 points.

Advice: 4 pts Leicester to win by 1-12 points (6/5 Paddy Power) 

Heineken Cup 2012/13 - 19th January 2012

Castres (4/3) v Ulster (10/11)

Ulster can seal a Ravenhill quarter final with a win over Castres. Mark Anscombe’s men have been one of the most impressive sides in this season’s competition and have developed a very strong away record over the last two years, winning at Munster, Northampton and Glasgow in style recently, and while Castres are traditionally very strong at home, Glasgow showed more than enough weaknesses in the hosts to suggest Ulster can take this, with the 1-12 winning margin the first port of call.

Advice: 2 pts Ulster to win by 1-12 points (8/5 Hills)

Glasgow (9/4) v Northampton (8/15)

Northampton have to win with a bonus point and hope that other results go their way to progress and while that doesn’t look likely, they can take a win from Scotland. Saints have fronted up of late after a strong of big match losses, with wins and Ravenhill and Sandy Park also complimented by an impressive performance against Saracens. Glasgow have done themselves proud in terms of performance but have lost both home games so far.

Advice: 1 pt Northampton to win by 1-12 points (6/4 Ladbrokes)

Cardiff (1/6)  v Sale (8)

Cardiff have been battered on many occasions this season but their Heineken Cup performances have been admirable and they can give the long suffering Blues faithful something to cheer when Sale come to town. A points mark of 28 or more looks achievable.

Advice: 1 pt Cardiff to score 28 or more points (5/6 general)

Montpellier (10/11) v Toulon (evs)

With only a losing bonus point needed to seal a home quarter final, there’s not a giant incentive for Toulon to go all out, hence Montpellier’s status as slight favourites for this tie. With a strong home record, big pack, and massive emotional incentive in the case of Eric Bechu’s death this week, the hosts are tempting, but the pure class of Toulon’s side will always make things close. In 4 of their 5 games so far, Toulon have scored more points in the second half than the first, so that option appeals far more than any match points.

Advice: 3 pts 2nd half to be highest scoring (10/11 Ladbrokes)

Exeter (11/2) v Leinster (2/9)

To qualify, Leinster need one thing; A massive bonus point win while hoping that Montpellier especially don’t win in France beforehand. The Dubliners haven’t looked as good as they have in recent years but they can call upon a full strength team for tonight’s trip and make great appeal against an Exeter side which has begun to run out of steam as the season as gone on. The second half handicap of 5 points with Betfred makes considerable appeal given the forward power in the Leinster pack.

Advice: 3 pts Leinster -4.5 on 2^nd half no draw handicap (5/6 Betfred)

Scarlets (11/2) v Clermont (2/9)

Clermont can seal a home quarter final in style with a comprehensive win over Scarlets in Wales. The Jaunards have been so often bridesmaids at both domestic and European level but have been incredible form so far this season and scored over 60 points at Sandy Park and the Aviva this season, so a handicap of 9 points seems reasonable, with the 2^nd half handicaps also looking secure if one worries that they’ll ease up late.

Advice: 2 pts Clermont -9 (10/11 Hills) 

Heineken Cup 2012/13 - 18th January 2013

Biarritz (10/11) v Harlequins (6/5)

Biarritz are marginal favourites here presumably on the basis that Harlequins have nothing to play for – although with the French side simply having to beat  'Quins to come into the reckoning as qualifiers for the Amlin Challenge Cup quarter-finals, that could be said for the home side - and the home advantage which has seen the Frenchmen defeated only once at Stade Aguilera in the Heineken Cup since 2001. That said, Biarritz are not in the form of old and Quins have taken a full strength XV of impressive quality and the carrot of top seeding to chase. With conditions in France also quite poor, this could be a tight win for the hosts – consider no try-scorer strongly.

Advice: 1 pt Biarritz to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general)

Connacht (1/2) v Zebre (33)

Connnacht have once again held their heads high with their performances in this year’s Heineken Cup and can round off with a strong win over a winless Zebre side that has on no occasion got within 9 points of their rivals. The home points line is set at 25 and that looks too big with home advantage onside.

Advice: 2 pts Connacht to score 25 or more points (10/11 general) 

Premiership - Manchester United v Liverpool

For many, it’s the biggest game in English football and Manchester United can take a big step towards taking back their Premiership title with a victory over Liverpool in the biggest and most fiercely contested of derbies. Much attention in the build upto this game has been on Liverpool’s talismanic and at times more Tasmanian forward Luis Suarez, but the impressive record of Ferguson’s men this season and in this fixture seems to have gone unnoticed in the buildup.

United maybe celebrating again with some Deja Vu and a helping
hand from Van Persie 

21 points ahead of the Merseysiders after 21 games, United are a whopping 7 points clear at the head of the league and have won eight of their last 9 in the league, along with all but 1 of their games at Old Trafford. Many have commented upon the leaks in United’s defence that have been seen on numerous occasions this season but the fact of the matter is that no team in England have been able to match them over the course of the season when it comes to sheer attacking force. Although it’s largely thanks to Robin Van Persie, United’s goal tally of 54 goals – 28 of them at Old Trafford – Is ridiculous and It’s been 59 games since United failed to score at home in the league (they lost 1-0 to Aston Villa in December 2009).

Obviously this is a game where form can sometimes go array, but United have won the last three fixtures and seven of the last eight overall in this head to head which gives great encouragement in terms of United being able to handle the derby pressure. Admittedly they’ve been lucky not to lose some of those fixtures but they have a pretty dominant record at Old Trafford and in the biggest games of this season – winning at City, Chelsea, and Anfield already while wiping asideWest Brom and Arsenal (sides directly ahead of Liverpool in the table) – with relative ease.

Liverpool have been improving of late with two 3-0 wins in their last two games, but you’ll struggle to see even QPR play worse than they did and they should always be beating Sunderland at home. An away record which shows just three wins in 10 matches is a cause for concern and their three defeats on the road have all come to sides in the top 10 (Stoke, Tottenham and West Brom). Indeed, they’ve not won any games on the road against the top half of the Premier League this season, which does not bode well for a trip to the best team in England based on all known evidence this season.  While players such as Luis Suarez and Raheem Sterling are more than capable of wreaking havoc against United’s rearguard, Liverpool have let in 12 goals on their trips to Top 10 clubs this season and simply have to be the bet at 19/20 once all evidence is weighed up. Three of the last 4 games between the pair have gone United’s way by just the one goal (all being 2-1 home wins) so look at both of those for value options.

Advice

4 pts Manchester United (19/20 general)

1 pt 2-1 Manchester United (9/1 Bet Victor, Stan James)

Heineken Cup - 13th January 2013

Edinburgh (5) v Munster (2/9)

Munster badly need a win here to keep their hopes of a quarter final place alive, especially given Saracens’ storming win yesterday, and they can get it although their 17-6 loss to Cardiff last week is a serious concern, especially given how it took place at home. However Edinburgh are an inferior side to even that of Cardiff and have lost by more than the 9 points Munster are being asked to give up on every single occasions in the Heineken Cup, including at home to Saracens and Racing Metro. The temptation is simply to back Munster to cover the handicap especially if Edinbrugh’s defence goes to pot, but a fairly full strength Leinster won by 15 points (admittedly with the help of a late try) and the 11-20 winning margin actually makes more appeal from a value perspective. 8 of Munster’s last 9 Heineken Cup games have been under 40 points, so the 10/11 on under 43.5 also makes some appeal here, especially if Munster can keep the home side quiet (let in just 28 points in two games against Saracens).

Advice: 1 pt Munster to win by 11-20 points (5/2 Skybet),2 pts Under 43.5 points (10/11 Bet365)

Ospreys (10/11) v Leicester (11/10)

Before I even start the preview, no matter what, if backing either side, do it by the 1-12 winning margin; It’s the most common winning margin in European rugby, especially when top class sides meet. With Pool 2 so tight, this could arguably be the game of the weekend with both sides needing to win here to keep quarter final hopes alive, and that’s reflected by the bookmakers making this a scratch affair. Leicester won the reverse fixture by a big margin but they were flattered to do so, and much like Toulouse, will find the going far tougher in Wales than at home and Ospreys fantastic recent run of form at home, barring that disappointing performance against Zebre – 6 unbeaten including a 17-6 win against Toulouse – potentially spells big trouble for Leicester, who were unconvincing against Treviso in their double header and have been shaky in general on the road. With Ospreys having beaten Leicester at home twice in recent season and suffering only one loss in their last 20 home pool games the home win is a tempting call, but the absence of critical forwards Ian Evans, Alun Wyn Jones and Aaron Jarvis, along with Ashley Beck at centre, dampens a lot of appeal. With Leicester having been behind in 7 out of 10 Premiership matches this season (and 8 of their last 10 Heineken Cup away games), and Ospreys having literally vice versa in stats (they’ve led at at home in 8/10 European home game and 7/10 Pro 12 games) the Ospreys/Leicester double result at 15/2 with Ladbrokes (it’s around 7’s elsewhere) is by far the best value, with the Ospreys double result also looking like value for those interested.

Advice: 1 pt Ospreys/Leicester (15/2 Ladbrokes, 7/1 general)

Toulouse (1/66) v Treviso (25)

Toulouse need to, and should get a bonus point victory over Treviso, but a handicap of 26 points looks on the large side give the Italians’s improved efforts this season and they’d have covered that line on their two trips to the Liberty Stadium and Welford Road. Toulouse have the team to tear them to shreds but they’ve had a brutal schedule of late and may ease up once the bonus point is safe.

Advice: 1 pt Treviso +26 (20/11 Ladbrokes)

Heineken Cup - 12th January 2012

Harlequins (1/50) v Connacht (25)

Harlequins can seal their quarter final place with a big win over Connacht at the Stoop. Now confirmed as the best team in England, Conor O’Shea’s men have been just as dominant in Europe this season and will win the pool should they get any points over the Irishmen, which is a formality according to the markets. Connacht have been good opposition for  the Quins so far, winning one clash and narrowly missing out on bonus points with eight-point defeats in two of those games, while they went down only 23-19 here last year. However this season Quins look to be twice as good, and a 19 point winning margin is probably achievable if O’Shea’s men give their all; However, the stakes should be kept small.

Advice: 1 pt Harlequins -18 (10/11 general)

Toulon (1/50) v Cardiff (25)

Toulon suffered a shock home defeat for the first time this season last weekend but should get back on track with a convincing win against Cardiff Blues. The Frenchmen have covered every single handicap they’ve been given so far this season (just about in the cases of away wins at Cardiff and Sale) and while Cardiff were superb in winning over Munster, this is a different level. The second half handicap (45 of their 62 points came after the break against Sale) appeals as well, moreso than the 22 points given on the general line.

Advice: 3 pts Toulon -11 on second half handicap (10/11 general)

Zebre (6) v Biarrtiz (1/5)

This looks easily the most avoidable game of the weekend. Biarritz are notoriously poor travellers who have failed to convince with any of their Heineken Cup performances this season while Zebre have no wins in all competitions to their name, for all that they gave Ospreys a mighty scare in the Pro12. The suggestion is to their back the home side on the handicap or to back a narrow away win, with the preference being for the bigger priced narrow away win.

Advice: 1 pt Biarritz to win by 1-12 points (15/8 Coral)

Racing Metro (10/11) v Saracens (11/10)

A pivotal game in Pool 1 with Racing Metro fresh off the upset of the season in France after their incredible win at Toulon, and Saracens travelling here knowing that qualification rests in their own hands. Racing are a formidable outfit on home turf and should put in a massive challenge but Saracens are more than proficient on the road – they’ve already won at Northampton and Harlequins – and look value to gain a narrow win, with the 1-5 point margin appealing most and unders in the points and try markets also making appeal.

Advice: 1 pt Saracens to win by 1-5 points (5/1 general)

Clermont (1/25) v Exeter (18)

Exeter have put up a magnificent fight in Pool 5 but are facing Europe’s best home record and were absolutely hammered by Clermont at Sandy Park in the reverse fixture. Given how Clermont scored 36 unanswered points in the second half that day (something they also did against the Scarlets, albeit with a red card to help) a 2^nd half handicap of just 9 points has to be taken with William Hill, while their general handicap of 18 also looks worthwhile to have onside.

Advice: 4 pts Clermont -9 on 2^nd half handicap (10/11 Hills), 2 pts Clermont -18 (10/11 Hills)

Leinster (1/40) v Scarlets (22)

Leinster are facing the potentially unthinkable situation of missing out on the Heineken Cup quarter finals but they can rack up a big win against Scarlets, who have fallen apart in the Pro12, losing their last 2 road games by 29 and 30 points to the Ospreys and Ulster respectively. That suggests that a handicap of 20 points is more than achievable and looks to be well worth supporting with the home side having a stronger team out than at any stage of the competition so far.

Advice: 3 pts Leinster -20 (10/11 general) 

Heineken Cup 2012/13 - 11th January 2012

Ulster (1/12) v Glasgow (14)

Ulster’s arguably unlucky defeat to Northampton means that this pool isn’t over yet but they’ve been the outstanding team of the four by some way and they should have more than enough to put a foot in the quarter finals - they must travel to Castres next week - with a convincing win over Glasgow at Ravenhill. Glasgow’s recent run of form has seen them catapulted to second in the Pro12 table, but Ulster are 11 points clear of them and have won two of their last three home games – the other being Leinster – by 30 and 25 points, so the handicap of 16 is of interest. However Glasgow have been the form team barring Ulster in the Pro 12 and put in big efforts at both Saints and Castres, so there’s an element of doubt. More secure areas look to be Ulster to score 32 or more points – or maybe the second half handicap of 9 points. The men from Ravenhill have outscored teams in the 2nd half in 15 out of their 17 games this season and in all eight games at home, while Glasgow – who are suffering a serious lack of injuries (including the absence of a proper prop) with Barclay ,Cusack ,Cusiter , Fainga’anuku , Fusaro, Gillies , Hunter, Jackson, and Lamont all out – could suffer after the break.

Advice: 2 pts Ulster -9 on 2^nd half handicap (10/11 general)

Sale (9/2) v Montpellier (2/7)

Sale have shown small signs of improvement in recent weeks but are far more concerned with Premiership survival and won just 2 of their last 14 league games, those to two teams who had a combined record of 5 wins on the road from 53 games. Montpellier have been one of the most impressive teams in the completion barring a defeat to Toulon at the Stade Felix Mayol – a regular occurrence for all manner of teams – scoring 103 points and 10 tries in the three games since.  Admittedly a lot of those came at home, while they had the benefit of being a man up for a lot of their trip to Cardiff Blues, but they’ve bought their best side to a struggling Sale Sharks outfit and should be well upto covering the handicap here. 9 points would be manageable (there are 7 and 8 point deficits being offered which are even  more tempting) but the second half margin of 4 looks even better and so does the winning margin of 11-20 points.

Advice: 3 pts Montpellier -4 on second half handicap (10/11 Betfred), 1 pt Montpellier to win by 11-20 points (5/2 general)

Northampton (1/12) v Castres (11/2)

Northampton have to win to keep their hopes of a quarter final place alive and they can do so in style against Castres, who have made an exceptionally strong start to the season in France but struggle very badly on the road, with only 5 wins on the road in Heineken Cup history and their three Top 14 wins having come against the bottom three teams. Northampton have been given a lot of criticism for defeats against the Premierhip’s top brass but they were within a penalty kick of winning at Saracens and were always well on top at Exeter, a venue where only a full strength Clermont Auvergne side had come away with points before. With Castres having also named a pretty strong team, this isn’t a game to get too involved in, and the 11-20 winning margin looks to be the best single bet available.

Advice: 1 pt Northampton to win by 11-20 (9/4 general)

FA Cup 2013 - The Road to Wembley

It’s so often the tie for famed giantkillings and upsets, yet, the FA Cup is a tournament which is reliable as any for picking a winner based upon trends. In 19 of the last 25 years, the cup winners have been a team who were in the top 6 upon the start of the third round, and only eight different clubs have lifted the famous trophy. Portsmouth and Everton are the only clubs to have broken the stranglehold of the Big 6 in that time, and is looks to be wise to concentrate on them in terms of finding the winner.

Manchester United have one of the best squads in England and an FA Cup
run should be high on the list 

Roberto Mancini’s Manchester City, winners in 2011, are favourites at 5/1 and have a relatively easy third round tie against Watford (albeit a free flowing one) on paper to start their campaign, but it’s surprising to see City rivals Manchester United, who lie a giant 7 points ahead of them in the league, at a bigger  price to underline their status as the most successful side in the competition with a remarkable 12^th victory.  

Sir Alex Ferguson’s side haven’t won since 2004, but have reached the final twice since then and also made two semi-finals in that time, so have been knocking on the door hard in the interim despite their lack of success, while a fourth round defeat at Liverpool bought no shame with it considering that side’s subsequent run to the final last year. This season United look to be coming into the competition with their best league form for sometime, leading neighbours City by 7 points with the rest nowhere, and the Red Devils’s much famed attack has scored a startling 54 goals already this season. Much of that is down to Arsenal’s foolish sale of Robin Van Persie to the club, but Ferguson has plenty of options too choose from upfront now, with Javier Hernandez and Danny Wellbeck likely to be upfront for United’s ties in the competition, while it’s not hard to imagine Robin being used in the substitute role, or starting should United feel the need. Whichever way you look at it, that’s an excellent attacking trip for a competition such as this and if one needs any more convicting of their strength in depth, the team they went to take on Chelsea in the Capital One Cup contained Hernandez, Wellbeck, Nani, Anderson and Rafael; It took Chelsea most of their first team in extra time to gain a 5-4 home win.

A trip to Upton Park is not an easy one, but they’re still just 2/9 to progress and have played and beaten teams with better home records so far this year (see below) already and Two massive away draws last year did for them but this year they’ve already beaten Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea on the road, which gives huge confidence in that regard should they draw another of the big 6 away from home.  

Manchester City have the talent to go far in this competition and did knock United out on the way to winning it in 2011, but it’s hard to get excited about their chances at just 11/2 and this year’s vintage are performing far below the dizzying heights of last season. Yes, their tie against Watford at home is one they should win and yes, they’ve got almost limitless reverse of players, but they’re up against in the title race as things stand already and an away draw is a worry with only 5 wins on the road in the league so far.

Chelsea’s exceptional record in this competition – four wins in 6 years is absolutely remarkable – must be commended, and they have the midfield to take any team in the competition apart on their day. However their 1-0 loss to QPR with a strong side on paper raises some strong questions about what would happen without even a handful of their all-conquering midfield in a difficult tie, which is exactly the nature of their third round trip to Southampton today. Their count of games without Juan Mata reads played 5 and failed to win 5, while they’re 14 pints behind United in the league, so others make more appeal at the moment although if a full strength team is played they can easily win; their fixture today will tell a lot.

Spurs arguabaly have a stronger side than last year on
an all round basis and can go far in the FA Cup

Tottenham are unlucky not to be higher in the table after some extremely difficult fixtures so far, and are getting ever closer to a first trophy based on their improvement in the Premiership and also two semi-final appearances in the last three years, going out to an inspired Chelsea side in last year’s semi, and then being unlucky enough to get drawn away to Manchester United twice on recent occasions. They’re more draw dependent than most but a home tie against Coventry is an excellent start and they did beat United on their own turf in the league this season.

Andre Villas Boas tends to play strong teams in cup competitions  - Jan Vertongen, Tom Huddlestone, and Michel Dawson all started at Carlisle in the Capital One Cup – and can now call upon not only hi impressive range of first team regulars, but the likes of Scott Parker, Benoit Assou Ekotto, and in the latter stages one can envisage him playing a good side in the latter stages, while his side are now much better quipped not only take on bigger sides, but deal with tough away trips, as they are the leading’s scorers on the road in the Premiership.

Arsenal don’t make appeal given that they’ve not won a trophy since winning this in 2005 and have a much weaker side than in years gone by, while a tie away to Swansea, deserved 2-0 winners in London recently, is an awful draw. Everton, semi-finalists last year and on their best run of form at the beginning of a season since taking fourth spot, will attract many and have an excellent home tie to Cheltenham, but they’re likely to concentrate all their efforts upon reaching the top 4 and while having a quality first 11, are not blessed with as big squad as others. Considering their position in the league (seventh), West Brom could have been looking forward to facing QPR beforehand but they were blessed with some questionable referring decisions to win that tie and will now face a side resurgent after a midweek win at Chelsea.  Liverpool were finalists last year and were very impressive in this competition, but are eight points off Spurs in third place at the time of writing and still blighted by the problems which hampered them last season. With Champions League qualification still mean to be at the forefront of their minds – if one can believe so – they might also rotate, and in any case only eight wins, tells the story of a vulnerable team this year.

Of the other sides in the Premiership Swansea would make considerable appeal at their best, for all that their chances might be more reliant than one would want for an outsider on the brilliant Michu and Stoke, who have reached at least the last eight in the past three seasons and were losing finalists in 2011, make more appeal than many at a large 40/1. An away trip to Crystal Palace is not an easy one to start off with, but Ian Holloway has made changes with his side at the top of the Championship and we all know how hard they are to beat at home.

Advice

3 pts win, 1 pt each/way Manchester United (7/1 Bet Victor, Youwin, 13/2 elsewhere)

2 pts win, 1 pt each/way Tottenham (11/1 Bet365, Bet Victor, 10/1 elsewhere)

1 pt each/way Stoke (40/1 general)