Wednesday 29 December 2010

Leopardstown Christmas Festival - Juvenile Hurdle

1.00 Leopardstown

Bord na Mona Fire Magic Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner €32,500

Pick: Kalann (each/way)

Toner D’Oudaries: Comes here as the most experienced horse here and the form horse at that, having won the Grade 3 Bar One Hurdle at Fairyhouse last time out; Did it in good style, and has 4 of the 10 horses here held on that form (they are reopposing); One to beat.

Accidental Outlaw: Made natural progression from hurdles debut to win well at Punchestown but blew a good opportunity last time and the third from that race has been well beaten by Toner D’Oudaries since.

Al Dafa: Has won 2 out of four starts, but both of those in weak races and well beaten last time; Looks to have a mountain to climb on all known form, with the booking of Paul Carberry a bonus.

Days Ahead: Closely matched with Silas Mariner on their Punchestown form but has already run 6 times this year and looked badly exposed when fifth behind Toner D’Oudaries last time.

Fearless Falcon: Hasn’t been out of the first three since his hurdling debut, and is closely matched with Toner D’Oudaries on their last meeting; Should finish closer but still has to improve to win.

Kalann: Very smart on the flat, coming fourth, third and then wining a decent race at Dundalk and made most pleasing hurdles debut possible when second to Toner D’Oudaries at Fairyhouse last time; Is now 3lbs better off a surely likely to improve for that, so has to rate a major player.

Sailors Warn: Probably improved on his debut third when fourth behind Tonder D’Oudaries at Fairyhouse last time, but that form leaves him well held here.

Kirstal Komet: Won well last time when improving for her debut (had to give 8lbs to the runner up) but held by Narima on debut form.

Narmina: Useful in France, coming third in 2 decent races over the AW and coming a decent runner up on her hurdles debut; May be a serious contender.

What A Charm: Very useful on the flat, verging on listed class at both 2 and three before coming second in the Irish Cesarawitch before winning the November Handicap here in really good style; Has every chance if jumping well here.

VERDICT: What A Charm holds every chance if jumping well, and she wouldn’t need to be special to land this first time out. Toner D’Oudaries is the form horse here but KALANN wasn’t too far behind him first time out and can use that experience to turn around the tables here.

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