Thursday 16 December 2010

Bar One Racing Day 2010 - Drinmore Chase - Analysis

A race that has only recently developed into a true indicator of the best talent in this division of Irish horses, with Trafford Lad and Pandorama being the last 2 winners, and probably the best winners of the race, Le Coudray and Nil Desperandum apart. As had been the story with the previous races on the card, the early pace wasn’t frenetic but that changed with Bob Lingo setting a decent clip and quickly bounding several lengths clear; Many were in with a chance in the home straight before the first 2 pulled clear; The fences at Fairyhouse are stiff and this was a true test of jumping.

JESSIES DREAM maintained his progression over fences with a first victory at the highest level for both horse and trainer Gordon Elliott, although his job was made significantly easier when favourite Mikael D'Haguenet fell at the last when upsides.

The winner, given an excellent ground-saving ride up the inner by Timmy Murphy came here off the back of an excellent debut in a strong novice Chase at Galway, having beaten the useful Corkseagh Royale and classy Venalmar with ease, and he built on that here, jumping fluently all the way round and looking a worthy winner of the race, beating off some decent rivals with ease although it’s debateable whether this turns out to be the best that Ireland have to offer in terms of staying novice chasers; Quotes of 16/1 for the RSA are very fair though, and you’d think that he be very hard to beat in races such as the Knight Frank over Christmas if he went there. It’s interesting that connections suggests that further would suit, and if he handles good ground (connections have said so) you’d have to consider him a top novice prospect.

Top class hurdler Mikael d'Haguenet developed really well over hurdles in 2008/9, winning all six starts after being brought over from France, including Grade 1s at Navan, Cheltenham (a very strong renewal of the Ballymore, beating Hennessy Gold Cup winner Diamond Harry and Karabak) and Punchestown, before he was injured. It would probably have been a winning return as well had he not crumpled on landing after the last (more a slip than an actual mistake), having jumped with verve and intent, and he looked much the best through the race, especially in the home straight. This was a tough ask for him and he can only get better, and based on this e's suffered no ill-effects from the splint and muscle problems that kept him off the track, once again showing the shrewdness of his trainer in not rushing him back.

Potential future targets are much more difficult though, given that he’s always had speed and gears and boasts of winning form over 2 miles; He’s as short as 6’s for the RSA, but he’s shown enough speed over hurdles (has won twice over 2 miles during novice campaign; One giving 8lbs to the runner up) and would almost certainly be suited by the strong pace and unique test of speed/stamina that the Arkle presents.



On the other hand, he’s never shaped like a horse short of stamina and given how he outstayed/outsped the high class pair in the Ballymore (who have both gone onto success over 3 miles) the RSA must be in the minds of the connections; He’s got the class to go and be a main contender for either and the Knight Frank Novice Chase over Christmas will tell all regards his festival prospects, for the opposition there is sure to be stronger and it will prove whether or not he stays 3m; He’s all class nonetheless.

Realt Dubh ran a solid race to be second and it would be harsh on him and his connections to take the gloss off it due to the fall of Mikael D’Haugenet; He made up a lot of good headway on the home turn, and while he was a clear third best at the last, he didn’t look short of the cursing speed for 2 miles and he’d be very interesting if sent down that route, having romped to an easy win in the Craddockstown Novice Chase over 2 miles on his last run.

Head Of The Posse was unbeaten previous to this, and doesn’t come out any the worse, for all that he was a clear second best to 4 good horses on the day. He can win plenty of races If placed right at a lower Grade, and he wants much less of a trip.

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