2.35 Leopardstown
Lexus Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €93,000
Pick: Pandorama (each/way)
Cooldine: Looked set for giant heights when winning the RSA Chase by 16 lengths, pulverising his field (was beaten at odds on since but that obviously due to tiredness) ; Hasn’t won since however, in a season where nothing went right for him fitness, condition or race wise (did look on way back in Guinness Gold Cup); jumped and went well for long way in John Durkan Chase last time, and may be close to peak here; Serious chance.
Glencove Marina: Has had his fair share of problems (only ran 6 times since January 2008) but very talented nonetheless and showed plenty of ability when smashing Notre Pere and Rare Bob in November; Showed all ability intact when fourth in John Durkan last time but this trip really going to test him.
Joncol: Made his mark as a staying chaser last year with wins in the John Durkan and Irish Hennessy, only just managing to outstay Cooldine in grim style; Worried some when he was a well beaten fourth warming up for this, but that was over 2 miles and the stable wasn’t right; Should be seen to much better effect here and the one most likely to handle soft ground.
Kempes: Very good hurdler who won a Grade 2 over fences and was in front of some pretty useful fencing types when second in the Champion Novice over 2m at Punchestown ; Has taken the time to get the hang on things over fences but did it good style in a Grade 2 and landed biggest success when comprehensively beating stablemate at Punchestown Festival; Considering trip was a mile too short, ran excellent race in Hilly Way Chase last time.
Let Yourself Go: Ran admirable race in Hilly Way Chase but was out on his feel when falling in the Hill Way Chase, so won’t be winning here against better opponents and a longer trip.
Money Trix: Ran a screamer when close second to What A Friend in this last year, before a bad mistake cost him any chance on his final appearance of the season in the Hennessy Gold Cup; Relishes ground and good record fresh although this renewal seems to have more strength in depth than last year.
Mossbank: Was a top class Chase in 2007/87 until injury intervened, (placed in this, the Ryanair and Guinness Gold Cup)but has struggled to get competitive in both starts this season.
Notre Pere: Was a top class staying chaser around 2 years ago, when he won the Welsh National in 2008 and the Gold Cup at Punchestown the following spring; Below par all of last season and doesn’t look good enough.
Pandorama: Winner of 8 from 10 starts over rules, the only defeat (when completed) coming to Ballymore properties winner Mikael D’Haugenet over hurdles; Unbeaten in three last season as a novice chaser, simply running away with the Drinmore Novice Chase; Made much harder work of landing the Knight Frank Novice Chase but jumped well in main and did very well to get up and beat RSA Chase winner Weapon’s Amnesty after mistake at last; Had a luckless run in the Hennessey, getting all but brought down at the second and being left so far behind that he was pulled up at the eighth; Has still only had 5 runs over fences
Siegemaster: Always been stuck between being a top class handicapper and Graded horse, and ran with real credit when fifth in the Guinness Gold Cup last summer; Ran respectably under a big weight in the Troytown most recently, but too much to do.
The Listener: Mud loving front-runner whose biggest 4 wins are all soft/heavy ground Grade 1 Chases here (Ireland);Won the JNWine Chase by 15 lengths on his last start but that 2 years ago and asking miracles of him to win this for you.
Vic Venturi: Romped home in the Bobbyjo and Becher Chases last season, and could be presented with an ideal test given that the ground’s likely to be heavy and there are horses that will want to force the pace; That said, better choices around.
J’y Vole: Well beaten in last year's renewal but went on to finish a fine third in the Ryanair at Cheltenham and was doing her best work in the closing stages of the John Durkan (given a lot to do as well); Shapes as if she’d improve for the extra trip but hasn’t ever looked like winning over this trip.
VERDICT: This represents a serious chance for Joncol and Cooldine especially, but there’s no way we saw the best of PANDORAMA in the Hennessy and he might well be good enough to have a big say. J’y Vole’s got the class to figure but is unproven at the trip.
I'm on Pandorama and if he is not special then this race comes down to who it suits best. So many closely rated. If the ground is deep I am not so convinced of some that something could not plod on past a few.
ReplyDeleteThe Listener gets an easy lead has the form but been ill. Money Trix been off since he and WaF arguably outstayed Joncol. Joncol is a giant beast mind and won CD in a slowly run race. Cooldine maybe he has excuses but for me he had chances and runs last year. Better run race should get him by Joncol IMHO. Kempes interesting won over 3 miles and mostly run over shorter. J Y Vole one wonders if stamina was in the bag why is this first 3 miler. Vic V small fielder but on this ground cannot be written off unless something is genuine grade 1 3 miler. If it's deep Notre Pere has not really had a race to suit and is still 9 - poor at Aintree but some suggestion he was badly balked.
Fascinating race and I shall be backing Pandorama for the win as if he is not better than these it's a lottery. With a different trainer I might even be confident but however unfair I have little confidence in Meade.
If it's not too heavy prediction is Pandorama, The Listener, Money Trix/Kempes/Cooldine. Nothing would surprise me it's that type of race.