Thursday 16 December 2010

Bar One Racing Day 2010 - Royal Bond Novice Hurdle - Analysis

We have been deprived of racing in the last 2 or so weeks, so many thanks should go to all concerned in getting these 2 fantastic cards on (Cheltenham and today); The initiative shown by HRI, Bar One and many others has ended up in one of the best Irish cards bar the Punchestown festival.

A race that is better than much of the past renewals show formwise, for it has produced some very high class winners, notably Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Moscow Flyer and recently Hurricane Fly. This year’s race centred all around one horse, which can happen due to the time of year’s it’s run at; This year’s renewal had been delayed for more than 10 days, and with that, massive credit to all connected, especially Bar One, Fairyhouse and the HRI.

ZAIDPOUR needed little encouragement to land the Royal Bond, creating a superb impression and brining an army of inevitably short quotes with him for the Festival; He could go for the Neptune (4-1 favourite with William Hill) but seems much more likely to go for the Supreme Novices, having proven his exceptional speed with this bruising and easy win.

Many already see him as the main threat to Cue Card, indeed some see him as the winner, but what he beat today cannot be described as anything other than a useful field, with the exception of a previous Grade 3 winner in Mount Helicon, who’s already been exposed badly and never gave his true running. While he’s a tremendous prospect, he can’t be rated as anything other than classy in my opinion at this moment in time. We’ll learn a lot more about him when he goes for the PaddyPower.com Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on December 27, which for me will decide his festival prospects; Cue Card is still the one for me though at this moment, but it’s worth remembering that many of the best novices could still be yet to run, and there’s nearly always an unexposed horse that bursts onto the scene.

In second, Pineau De Re ran a career best for the connections behind Dunguib (Phillp Fenton/Brian O’Conell), building on a very impressive maiden hurdle win. What he’s achieved by being second we don’t know (he was laboured all the way around) but if the winner really is as good as they say, he’ll pay his way and more than hold his own in Grade 1 & 2 company, if connections place him right. He might need a trip though.

Perfect Smile shaped like a very good horse on the turn, Paul Carberry sitting motionless as he usually does with all bar Zaidpour hard at work and he shapes like good ground and exaggerated hold up tactics will suit, flattering to deceive behind Pineau De Re on the run in. He travels like a typical horse from the Meade Stable, and should pay his way over the season; He’s clearly got enough ability to land Graded Hurdles if ridden right.

There was little promise in the runs of The Shepherd King, late drifter Carloswayback, and Mount Helicon; The latter was clearly tired/amiss/exposed while Carloswayback was seriously disappointing given how he won first time out. He needs another chance.

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