Football Bets - 18th December 2010

With all jump racing apart from a high quality card at Navan being cancelled, the football blog is back to plug up the Interlull.

At the start of the season, nobody predicted that the 2 teams facing each-other in tomorrow’s early kick off would by sixth and seventh, in the table having played nearly half the season.

Despite having hosted Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United already this term, SUNDERLAND are yet to lose at home and they also hold the second best home defensive record.

While Steve Bruce’s defensive headache is set to continue, with Anton Ferdinand (hamstring) limping off against Fulham last week to join Titus Bramble and Michael Turner (both knee) on the side-lines, they have no such concerns in attack, with Welbeck, Bent and Gyan all set to start for the Black Cats, they must have a serious chance of beating their close rivals.

Bolton have made a brilliant start to the season – finding themselves in sixth position one game short of the halfway point in the campaign. One thing Bolton can no longer be accused of is being a boring ‘hit and hope’ team, as they’ve well and truly brought verve and fair to the table, their game against Blackpool being a prime example.

This would make them favourites to win, but they are up against a team which has been just as good at times this season and clearly their exceptional home advantage, buffered up by a truly excellent attacking line up could wing it for them. Given problems with Sunderland’s defensive options, maybe both teams to score could be well worth backing.

Newcastle may well have provided a crucial stabilizer to what had been a brilliant season with a 3-1 win over a lacklustre Liverpool at St James’s Park last weekend. Newcastle have never been easy to predict – They’ve drawn 2 of their last 4 home games – And it’s now very hard to know whether they are better at home or away.

A trip to BIRMINGHAM, who have won just four of their last 27 Premier League matches, but only lost one of their last 23 matches at home in the top flight, probably isn’t ideal for them and given their sometimes alarming drops in form from week to week, which they are even more liable to now they are in a period of change and adjustment, do not encourage.

This is a big risk – There’s every chance a good Newcastle could turn up against the lacklustre Birmingham we have seen of late, in which situation they would be far too good – But we can’t take this on trust and Birmingham have punished teams who go to St Andrews under form, taking Chelsea and Tottenham as prime examples.

I really wouldn’t be surprised to see BLACKBURN drop into a serious relegation battle following on from the disappointment of a derby defeat to Bolton followed by the shock of manager Sam Allardyce's stupid sacking; Despite losing to rivals Bolton 2-1 at the weekend, Rovers were still a relatively stable 13th position in the Premier League table so it came as a huge surprise on Monday when Big Sam was given his marching orders by Venky's, the Indian firm who recently bought the Ewood Park club. Such a rash sacking could really mess up a relatively light squad, and while Steve Keen won’t have it easy stabilizing things, if there was one team they would have picked to face, it would be the bottom team in West Ham.

Blackburn’s home record is what really seals the deal at such a short price; Blackburn are looking for a fourth consecutive home win, with Arsenal and Chelsea having been the only teams to have won at Ewood Park this season.

For anyone that needs telling of how stupid Sam’s sacking was - Rovers lost only six of their 38 Premier League matches at Ewood Park under Sam Allardyce - the same number of home defeats as Arsenal's Arsene Wenger had at the Emirates Stadium over the same period.

Sometimes the trappiest games can be the ones between 2 woefully out of form sides; Wigan v ASTON VILLA is a prime example. This is a game that’s usually won by the away side – That side is unbeaten in the last eight Premier League meetings, winning five, having won both games last season.

While both teams have won only 3 out of their last 21 combined league matches, Villa have won their last three away games against Wigan and were the most recent winners, beating West Brom 2-1 at home. Admittedly Gerard Houllier's side have won just one of their eight away trips in the league this season, and lost six, but personally Wigan have been truly shocking and are there for the taking. – That match has been postponed.

Given how poor LIVERPOOL have been for a large part of this season and year, it’s quite remarkable that with 17 points taken from a possible 24, Liverpool's home record is bettered only by Manchester United and Chelsea; That stat was makes them banker material against Fulham, should their game go ahead.

While the Reds boast impressive form at Anfield, where they have gone over seven hours without conceding in league and cup, Hodgson's side have rarely impressed on their travels; last weekend's tame defeat at Newcastle was their sixth loss in eight away league games.


Fulham are a far more pleasant task for them, for all they’ll be difficult to break down, and the after a month on the sidelines with a hamstring problem, and Fernando Torres is back after being rested in midweek. – That game is also abandoned.

Arsenal should have too much class for Stoke, but they’ve been shaky at the back this season as is the case a lot of the time; While they are in a very promising position for the title (considering some poor performances this season), you can guarantee they’ll be made to work 10 times harder for the points than odds suggest and they are best left alone at 2/7; I feel they can win silverware this season, and a tight league suits a team like them although they will have to improve on Monday’s lacklustre display.

Recommendations

Sunderland to beat Bolton (11/10 General)

Both teams to score in Sunderland v Bolton (5/6 Skybet)

Birmingham to beat Newcastle (8/5 Bet365, VCBet)

Blackburn to beat West Ham (5/6 Betfred, VCBet, Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill)