The first race to come under the radar would be the Supreme Novices but while I’m not Pricewise, there would be little point in putting up Cue Card at 3/1; While Zaidpour has been class all over so far, we’ll know whether he the real deal after he runs (Weather permitting) at Leopardstown over Christmas, and for all that he won by 12 lengths, the Royal Bond was essentially just a really well funded novice hurdle.
That said, I was really taken with how MEGASTAR hurdled at Ascot on debut and given the attitude he showed over bumpers I wouldn’t consider it to be a negative should he go there lightly raced; Gary Moore said that the Tolworth was a possible option for him and it would be great to see him go there, as he does need to settle and jump much better to hold a serious chance.
The Arkle is one of my favourite races of the festival, as it brings every type of horse to the fore; Class acts such as Moscow Flyer and Well Chief have won it while Grinders like Or Royal and Champleve have also been proved successful.
FINIAN’S RAINBOW very much appeals as the type for this race, being a speedy sort who gets much further than this; But he might be a false favourite due to the blowouts of Celestial Halo and Sprit River, and having been recommended already at 16/1, he can be left alone.
I was really taken with the win of Ghizao at the Open Meeting, seeing as he beat the best assembled field all season with contemptuous ease and surely he’ll be suited by the Arkle’s pace; His jumping at that pace is a worry though, as is the fact that he didn’t stand much racing at all last season. Another impressive win would see him become a worthy favourite (he’s achieved the most of those at the head of the market).
Many feel that Merdermit should have won the Supreme Novices and to be fair, he wasn’t very short off the top level over hurdles; However his first 2 Chase runs have left a lot to be desired – He banked 3 and made mistakes at 2 when winning at Aintree (no decent rival left after Wessex King fell) and hadn’t jumped well when running out in a weak event at Huntingdon.
That all changed when he was an impressive winner of a very smart novices Chase at Plumpton, jumping with real fluency and drawing away from 2 very decent rivals; Admittedly his hurdle form demanded that he did something like this (was rated 12lbs superior) but it was impressive nonetheless and he’s respected on that basis, but left well alone on the fact that he’s yet to put 2 top runs together and may yet still go for the newly reinstated Jewson Novices Chase.
Top class hurdler Mikael d'Haguenet developed really well over hurdles in 2008/9, winning all six starts after being brought over from France, including Grade 1s at Navan, Cheltenham (a very strong renewal of the Ballymore, beating Hennessy Gold Cup winner Diamond Harry and Karabak) and Punchestown, before he was injured. It would probably have been a winning return as well had he not crumpled on landing after the last (more a slip than an actual mistake), having jumped with verve and intent, and he looked much the best through the race, especially in the home straight. This was a tough ask for him and he can only get better, and based on this e's suffered no ill-effects from the splint and muscle problems that kept him off the track, once again showing the shrewdness of his trainer in not rushing him back.
Potential future targets are much more difficult though, given that he’s always had speed and gears and boasts of winning form over 2 miles; He’s as short as 6’s for the RSA, but he’s shown enough speed over hurdles (has won twice over 2 miles during novice campaign; One giving 8lbs to the runner up) and would almost certainly be suited by the strong pace and unique test of speed/stamina that the Arkle presents.
On the other hand, he’s never shaped like a horse short of stamina and given how he outstayed/outsped the high class pair in the Ballymore (who have both gone onto success over 3 miles) the RSA must be in the minds of the connections; He’s got the class to go and be a main contender for either and the Knight Frank Novice Chase over Christmas will tell all regards his festival prospects, for the opposition there is sure to be stronger and it will prove whether or not he stays 3m; He’s all class nonetheless.
16/1 is a very attractive price given he’s got the speed but he’s always been touted as a Gold Cup horse and looks much likelier to go for the RSA Chase.
some quarters, CAPTAIN CHRIS was being talked about more than Menorah before the season started; That talk has been proven to be foolish although he hasn’t disgraced himself – The ground was too soft when he came up against a class act in Silviniaco Conti first time out and he suffered for a lack of experience when well beaten by Ghizao in the Independent Novices Chase – And I’d be very interested in him with a couple more runs, regardless of the opposition as with more experience he’d be a worthy contender and rates a decent price at 20/1 In places with track experience behind him – He could easily be as low as 10’s come March.
Surfing was much better than his fifth last time in France indicates, and would have to merit plenty of interest – He won three times in France and has been well fancied to do big things by his trainer - but I can’t back him until I’ve seen him, even if he is as big as 25/1.
Royal Charm is quoted as low as 12’s by Betfred but he won’t go for the race (connections want more time with him, and a trip), Oscar Whisky is staying over hurdles, while Punjabi (who would have been very interesting) is being given another year to recover himself.
Advice
1 pt each/way Megastar for the Supreme Novice Hurdle (16/1 SkyBet, Boylesports, Sportingbet, Victor Chandler, Paddy Power, Stan James, Coral)
Finian’s Rainbow each/way for the Arkle – Already Recommended
1 pt each/way Captain Chris for the Arkle (20/1 Bet365, Blue Sq, Stan James, 888Sport)
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