We’ve never had it so good. A phrase once used by Harold MacMillan to describe economic prosperity in Britain, but a good quite when thinking about the quality of teams at this summer ‘s fast onrushing European Championships. 14 of the top 26 ranked teams in the world according to FIFA are lining up here, with 4 of the top 10 having found their way into just one group. Not only that, but the World Cup finalists and winners are all back for more, while the beaten semi-finalists (beaten by an 80
th minute goal) there are judged by many to have improved significantly since. With the World Cup finalists of 2006 both back with improved squads in a bid to try and erase harrowing memories of poor tournaments since, everything seems set fair for a great tournament.
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| Wesley Sneijder |
Many have this tournament between Germany and Spain, who met in the final of this competition last time around and then again in the World Cup semi-finals, but ask anyone in
Holland if they’d have played the World Cup final differently in Bert Van Marjwik’s shoes and you’d get a resounding yes, (amongst other things). For those who can’t cast their mind back all that time, Holland came into the final having gotten past the easier passage, although there can be few qualms with a 2-1 defeat of Brazil – even with Felipe Melo being sent off and Brazil self- imploding in the second half, and had high hopes, having won every game of their World Cup campaign (including qualifiers) beforehand. However very soon into the game things turned ugly and Holland’s slick style was swapped for a thuggish set of overly physical, ridiculously aimless challenges. Refree Howard Webb dished out 14 yellow cards – including two to send off the Holland defender John Heitinga – while many criticised him for not dishing out a red card for Nigel de Jong's karate kick to the chest of Xabi Alonso as well as handing a second booking to Arjen Robben for kicking the ball away. In the end, we all know this failed miserably with Spain getting the one counter attack goal needed to end the final before penalties, the Oranjie were sent home in disgrace. However they’ve since gone back to their exciting winning ways – they’ve won 23 of their last 25 competitive matches – and if sticking true to their attacking finesse, then few better teams will be in the tournament and while they’re in the group of death, they should fear nobody and any wins gained early will prepare them mentally for the knockouts – which might even be easier on paper with any one of Russia, Poland, Cezchslovakia and Greece awaiting them if they make it. Tons of attacking talent (more in the Group guides) mean they’ll be hard to hold for anyone, but the questions in defence can be overridden if they get enough of the ball early while Van Marjwik will try to be as safe as possible, while having three in form goalkeepers is also likely to at least provide solid backup, if not being quite the player that Edwin Van Der Sar was. Taking all this into account, it’s hard to see why they’re double the price of Germany and Spain, which allows for an each/way bet along with a tasty 5/4 on them to make the semi final – a price which appeals given that you’d imagine they’d be shorter than that to beat the winners of Group A if getting through the Group of death.
Spain are deserving favourites in their bid for a historic treble and they should go close whatever happens, but there’s a feeling that it’s always been tight between them and the rest of the top European packs. Portugal had plenty of first half chances to beat them in the last 16 of the World Cup, Paraguay missed a penalty in their quarter final, Germany were proving hard to break down until Puyol found the net in their semi, and Holland didn’t given themselves the best chance they could in the showpiece. Granted that Vicente Del Bosque’s side controlled (and will do at this tournament) so much of the ball that it’s impossible to get a string of chances against them, and they’ll set a high standard, but it’s so hard to be interested in quotes of 3/1 to win the tournament as that looks dreadfully short. World Cup runners up in 2002, Beaten semi-finalists in the next two tournaments, and runners up in the last Euros (beaten by the eventual Champions on four of those occasions), Germany have become the main choice for many to gain the trophy many will feel that they deserve for their efforts, and this team should be just about ready to hit their peak. Beaten by Spain in the 2010 World Cup, that squad has now grown together over the last two years and came through qualifying in the most impressive style of any team present. A team full of talent in both attacking and defensive areas (backed up by Maneul Neuer’s presence in goal), they too have a great chance, but odds of just 3/1 seem very skinny on them at this stage. England are next in the betting but they’ve never been past the quarter finals of any Euros since making the smeis as hosts in 1996 and they’ve won just 7 matches in their history. With Spain, Holland, Germany and others looking superior, that prices make no appeal at all.
Italy have improved leaps and bounds from a horror World Cup defence – when they failed to win a single game – and have to be respected with coach Cesare Prandelli having inserted a touch of flair to the stuffy pragmatism that made the Italians World Cup winners. They’re not quite the second bet I’m looking for though. Ever since France made the final of the 2006 World Cup, the decline has been steep and rapid, but deep and through changes to the team have seen those events put well behind the shambles that was Raymond Domench’s 2010 outfit.
Rumours of a rift in their squad developed into a fully-fledged row that saw Les Bleus striker Nicolas Anelkas sent home in disgrace on for arguing with Domenech - and the fall-out from that incident saw captain Patrice Evra dropped for their final game with South Africa. But to be fair, the signs were aready there beforehand. Henry’s handball against Ireland was the only reason they had been there in the first game and their opening draw against Uruguay was the worst game of the tournament bar none. Fast forward two years on, and every member of the World Cup squad was axed for the first game of Laurent Blanc’s new era and they’ve gotten better and better since. Unbeaten in 19 matches on the international stage, they topped their qualifying section despite losing their first game to Belarus. Wins against England and Germany on the road in friendlies prove little but they should be able to hold their own against the top teams, while the market sees them avoiding Spain (assuming they win Group C) in the quarters, before a potentially mouthwatering clash against Germany in the semis. That’s a tall task but underestimating such an improving side would be foolish in the extreme and with the group draw working out that they’ve avoided the three teams rightfully ahead of them in the betting, while they’ve made just as much, if not more progress as a team than Italy since the last World Cup.
Of the others, Portugal make most appeal as a cover bet for Holland in the Group Of Death. Yet to win one of these competitions despite making the quarter finals in each of the last four tournaments, Paulo Bento’s side were runners up on home soil in 2004 and have since gone to the World Cup quarters before they had the misfortune of meeting Spain in the last World Cup. They gave Spain a good run for their money before being edged out in the last 16 of the World Cup, while they’ve scored 3 goals or more in 6 of their 10 qualifying games. They should go out at the first stage but if they make it through then it’ll be mightily hard to stop them and their defence has held well at the top level before, so quotes of 20/1 look worth having onside, as they’ve got the potential to trade much shorter in running during the tournament. Russia made the semis in 2008 but a lack of goals is a worry now, while I wouldn’t fancy them to beat Holland this time around (or Portugal for that matter, while even Denmark wouldn’t be a pushover should the ‘unthinkable’), Poland have talented members of the Borussia Dotrumnd team but are also likely to find their quarter final too strong, Ukraine have a tough group and then an even worse quarter, Croatia have a terrinble group, Sweden might not have the chemistry, the Cezchs seem on the decline, Denmark need to make it through the group, and Greece and Ireland look like they like the firepower upfront to make their defensive strength count.
Advice
2 pts win, 1 pt each/way Holland (7/1 general, 13/2 Bet Victor*)
1 pt win, 1 pt each/way France (12/1 Paddy Power)
1 pt each/way Portugal (20/1 general)
Saigon: Upset 4-9 chance (with pair well clear in the
closing stages) after sluggish start and even better when overhauling good types
at Newbury in style of a progressive sort; Not won since then but kept very
good company; Might be a touch exposed. 
Stipulate: Career best when making impressive comeback in
listed company at Newmarket in Fielden Stakes and forgiven his effort in the
Bet365 Classic Trial on account of the really heavy ground; Clearly talented
but might be one for middle distances and has a penalty to carry for his win
there; Might be a back to lay option at 18’s though, especially if sent to the
front. 
Cogito: Created a very good
impression when landing Newmarket Maiden in April, which was impressive
considering how notably yard’s runners come on for a run; 4 subsequent winners
come from that event so form looks strong given the fact that he was clear in
his own time, and has to be respected. 
Eastern Sun: Impressive maiden
winner who didn’t handle heavy ground in Solario Stakes of last year; Put that
right with AW conditions stakes win at Kempton and then third in the Craven
Stakes (possibly on ground with more cut than he’d like) just 12 days later;
Good horse on what we’ve seen and should be respected with trainer and jockey
in form. 
Karhman: All the way winner of 1m
Kempton AW maiden when he took subsequent winner with him all the way; Yard in
cracking form and surely has more to offer on both experience and improvement,
so has to be respected. 
Ocean Tempest: This seems to be a
big ask for a horse who was beaten off 76 last Thursday; Respectable horse but
he’s got so much to prove this year. 
Redact: Sharp 2yo, winning first
two races by a total winning distance of eight lengths before Super Sprint fourth,
amongst his better efforts; Midfield in Guineas after Free Handicap fourth and
might need to find more against unexposed types. 
Tales Of Grimm: Taking, if not
clear cut winner of his maiden in marginally quicker time than other division
winner Top Offer, beating subsequent clear cut winner and Fillies Mile third
Firdaws (got blocked in her run); That form gives him a chance and respected
although stable not having a great time with seasonal debutants. 
Top Offer: Clearly very talented
based on Newbury maiden win last August, confirming high home reputation in
style; Earmarked for big things since then but missed Greenham on account of
testing ground and likely that same thing didn’t suit him in 2,000 Guineas itself;
Easy to forgive that run and while it might be churlish to suggest this is a
drop in class, he’s got potential in abundance, should strip fitter and not
hard to give another chance.
Irish History: Emphatic six and a
half length winner of Windsor maiden, drawing right away from seemingly
moderate field although that can take nothing away from her win; This a hard
test for her but must be respected anyway. 
