MCR Hurdle Preview

I'm not a huge fan of handicap hurdles, but to make up for missing yesterday's racing here's a preview of the MCR Hurdle (trends from www.racecaller.com)

Trends for the last 10 years say that you want a horse who's aged 6 to 8, Placed last time out (ideally at Leopardstown Christmas meeting), Posted their highest RPR, Run no more than 4 times this season, Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles, Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning no more than 1), Second season hurdler, Carrying less than 10-12, Officially rated 116 to 126, Tends to races prominently, Trained by Tony Martin or Willie Mullins, and is Priced 16/1 or shorter.

This left me with three horses: PRIMA VISTA, LANCETTO and ASIGH PEARL. I wouldn’t put anyone off the favourite, given how impressively he won with authority at Christmas and duly picked up the penalty his trainer wanted him to get in order to assure getting into tomorrow’s 26-runner field.

But a 15lb ratings hike is a hefty one in any context and it has to be a big negative here, so despite the fact he didn’t make my shortlist I’d say TIJUANA DANCER is the better choice, especially at 8/1.

He’s struggled to get his head in front for a while but its 16lbs better off for only a 4 and half length beating at Leopardstown last time and fits all but 2 of the trends, with the rating of 116 being no negative on this ground in such a tough field.

Lancetto impressed with his win last time in October, landing a decent race in good style. The only problems with him are that he’s now 12 lb higher than when runner-up at Gowran the time before and he needs ground better than this, so while 20/1’s tempting, it’s passed over.

ASIGH PEARL comes from the same stable as the favourite and while she’s nowhere near as consistent as Prima Vista, she’s got excellent claims if on a going day here off a 6lbs higher mark when winning the Bar One Racing Handicap Hurdle at Fairyhouse last time, beating a good horse in Fosters Cross. She may well chuck it in but she’s surely worth the risk.

And if you're looking for a bet, Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports and Blue Sq will go 1/4 the odds for the race, along with Paddy Power and all others apart from William Hill and Coral.

Recommendations

1 pt each/way Tijuana Dancer (9/1 William Hill, others will go 1/4 5 places)

1 pt each/way Asiagh Pearl (16/1 General)