UAE 1,000 Guineas Trial, 7f, Tapeta (3.15) – I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big runs from Mahoooba, who was very taking when landing the Golden Slipper in South Africa on her last start, but she may not be suited by Tapeta and has a mountain to do to turn the tables around with Herman Brown’s CHOCLICIOUS, who had her nearly 4 lengths back on levels in Alllen Robertson Championship back in May. Ryan Moore takes the ride and she should be hard to beat. You can’t discount the De Kock second string Empire Rose, who was getting the hang of things with every run and should be able to make an impact it tuned up, while I doubt that Reem will find this much easier than running in her Native homeland. Godolphin's Abtasaamah, a very easy maiden winner at Southwell, lost her action in the Rockfel and the run is best ignored – Whether she’s as good as they think she is debatable but she’s one to watch for the powerhouse stable at this meeting – Najoum seems the second string here. Crying Lightening has a good chance but she needs to prove herself on the surface, and she may have done improving
Dolce Vita Handicap, Turf, 7f (3.55) - It’s clear that Ashram is the one to beat here. He was just verging on pattern class and has a fair mark of 118, although he’s likely to be punted big time here. Mike De Kock saddles the ultra-tough Warsaw but he generally needs a run to bring him to his peak and the stable hopes may rest with Clearly Silver, ridden by Christophe Soumillion. It’s fascinating to see Laa Rayb off just 107 for a trainer who has a %7.4 strike rate here (Fallon on board) but ESCAPE ROUTE makes a lot of appeal following a promising second on Boxing Day in the President Cup (Turf), having won here under the same rider (Richard Mullen) last year in the Carnival off 98. He runs of 104 today and could hold a big chance as decent odds.
Evidenza Handicap, Tapeta 1m3f (4:30) - I’d say that while the likely favourite will be Rock N Roll Ransom (understandable given that he’s got more to come then he’s shown for a big stable/jockey), Meerisss holds the outstanding chance given that he’s had an excellent recent run for a trainer who does well here and the fact that Christophe Lemaire has been booked speaks volumes. The advantage of a recent run might be enough for WONDER LAWN, who had an excellent prep last time and could have a successful carnival.
Prima Luna Handicap, Turf 1m4f (5.05) - A race to be treated with caution, given that most of these have bigger targets later in the Carnival and are unlikely to be fully wound up. It’s a classy field, so weight may not count an awful lot. Mikhail Glinka has a crucial recent run to his name although I’m not sure if he’s as good as he was for Ballydoyle and he needs watching today, even if that’s at the expense of a potentially well handicapped horse. EQUIPARADA was really impressive when winning the Mercedes Benz Gold Vase (especially given that she stumbled at the start) and can be expected to go close if wound up, while HAPPY VALLEY ran a monstrous race to come fifth in the Durban July over a trip that was a little short for him and a massive run could be on the cards. There’s a proviso that boht may be unfit, but that could apply to many.
Conquests Conditions Race, Tapeta, 6f (5.40) -It’s fascinating to see the likes of Evens and Odds, Inxile, Rock Jock, Invincible Ash, Green Beret and especially Bankable here, although nobody knows how many will handle the surface (although Invisible Ash won on AW at Dundalk) and Bankable will need further than this to be at his best ( a run too mind). The latter comment may well apply to OUR GIANT, but he looked set or big thing when landing the Mercury Sprint a year and a half ago and if he repeats that he’s a shoe – in off 115. Dohasa would have to be the next best.
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