2.00 Cheltenham
Murphy Group Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £22,804
Pick: Whishfull Thinking (win)
Noland: Impressive winner of the John Durkan when last seen just over 2 years ago, having recovered from a pair of rather disappointing festival efforts in Novice Company; Came second to stablemate Pepe Simo in an AW Bumper on Tuesday, and should have come on massively for that; Even so, hard to know how fit he will be exactly, and big task on here although he’s handicapped very well if fit and ready.
Little Josh: Jumped better than most of his previous starts when dead heating with very promising Weird Al at Carlisle and confirmed himself new horse when romping home in Paddy Power Gold Cup, never looking like getting caught from long way out; Did much the same until the rise (and increased attentions of other jockeys) caught him out when he nose-dived 2 out; No reason why he can’t go well here aging but life will be just as tough.
Chapoturgeon: Vastly improved when running away with the Jewson Handicap at the Festival here two seasons ago; Has struggled since and this only second run since breathing operation, so hard to be recommending.
Whisfull Thinking: 3-time winning hurdler (unlucky to fall when holding serious claims in Coral Cup at the festival) who has who has quickly recovered from a fall on his chase debut to win Grade 2 at Wincanton and finish second to Reve de Sivola here last time (poor trip; hampered);Has plenty of potential off this mark with a good trip.
Bakebenscher; Won 2 of 4 starts over fences last season and was always going to struggle in such a good race coming back from his stress fracture last time out; Still has something to prove.
The Sawyer: Bold front-runner who has won two renewals of this contest, and 6 out of his eight wins are in January; 5 lb higher than last season and yet to fire this term (doesn’t seem in same form) but just can’t be ruled out and worse choices here.
Atouchbetweenacara: Ran better than the bare facts suggest in the face of a stiff task latest but Simply hasn’t fulfilled promise he showed when winning Grade 2 limited handicap and not appealing here.
Buffalo Bob: Progressive chaser who ran well at Cheltenham last time until seemingly failing for stamina over extended 3m2f at Cheltenham last time; Drop in trip was probably what he needed, but this trip may well be too sharp for him unless aggressive front running tactics are used.
Fine Parchment: Facile winner of a Condtional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase two starts ago and change in ground might have had a lot to do with his flop since; Change in ground might have had something to do with it, and this will be run to suit, but also has a lot more on his plate here.
Drever Route: Improved a lot when landing a 2 mile Catterick handicap in March and another improved effort when scoring at Wetherby when last seen in October; Up 12lbs for winning a small race though and not sure that form his worth the rise.
VERDICT: A lot may depend on how good Noland comes back after a long layoff, a jumpers bumper win being his only run since the John Durkan of 2008. This won’t be any easier for Little Josh after his valiant fifth last time for all that he won’t have to deal with the first four home from that start again (all of whom are very good horses), and WHISFULL THINKING has a solid chance in a handicap based on his chase runs so far, the last of which saw him giving 8lbs to a useful chaser in Reve De Sivola.
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