I can't get to sleep and I'm trying to branch out into new sports, so what better time to do my 1st Cricket blog than now??
All of these bets are with Blue Sq, here http://www.bluesq.com/bet?action=go_event&ev_id=2436615
Watson to score 41 runs or more - 11/8
Clarke to score between 21-40 runs - 11/4
White to score 21-40 runs - 11/4
Strauss to score 0-20 runs - 5/4
Pietersen to score 0-20 runs - 5/4
Morgan to score 21-40 runs - 5/2
Australia to have the top run scorer - 10/11
Sunday, 30 January 2011
Saturday, 29 January 2011
Boylesports.com Tied Cottage Chase
1.50 Punchestown
Boylesports.com Tied Cottage Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €26,000
Pick: Big Zeb (win)
Big Zeb: Has always had talent to produce great performances (as he showed when he should have beaten Masterminded but for a horrible mistake at the last 2 years ago) and finally put it all together when winning 4 out of his 5 starts last year, capped off by a devastating six length win in the Champion Chase; Has been faultless since beating Golden Silver into second at both Navan and Leopardstown and standout here on road back to Cheltenham.
Golden Silver: Got the better of Arkle winner Forpadydeplaster in Irish Arkle before going off the boil for the rest of his novice runs; Has since made up into one of top Irish Chasers, winning this race a year ago before impressive successes in the Dan Moore Memorial and Boylesports Champion Chase at Punchestown Festival; Well beaten behind Big Zeb first time up and same story at Christmas, but as potent a threat as ever for in form team.
Sizing Europe: Recouped his former promise (should have won 2008 Champion Hurdle) over fences last season, completing a stunning 5 timer in the Arkle; Hasn’t won since but not for lack of class, the step up to open company just proving too much and in retrospect he faced a near impossible task trying to beat Kauto Star last time at Down Royal; Drops back to best trip here with pacemaker to help, which is huge positive and to be respected.
Scotsirish: Ran well in a series of races last season, the best of those being an excellent second under topweight in the Topham, also winning the Normans’s Grove Chase; Has been below par in his 2 runs this season, although he improved a lot to be third behind Big Zeb and Sizing Europe.
Chasing Cars: Hasn’t proven too successful over cross country fences and acting as pacemaker here for Sizing Europe.
VERDICT: The biggest pointer to future races in a Grade 1 in all but name maybe the reappearance of Sizing Europe (pacemaker aided) back at his ideal trip of two miles. BIG ZEB’s the clear standout and is probably going to take on the way to a tilt at a second successive Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival but beware of lumping on him with his close rival Golden Silver also in attendance here.
Boylesports.com Tied Cottage Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €26,000
Pick: Big Zeb (win)
Big Zeb: Has always had talent to produce great performances (as he showed when he should have beaten Masterminded but for a horrible mistake at the last 2 years ago) and finally put it all together when winning 4 out of his 5 starts last year, capped off by a devastating six length win in the Champion Chase; Has been faultless since beating Golden Silver into second at both Navan and Leopardstown and standout here on road back to Cheltenham.
Golden Silver: Got the better of Arkle winner Forpadydeplaster in Irish Arkle before going off the boil for the rest of his novice runs; Has since made up into one of top Irish Chasers, winning this race a year ago before impressive successes in the Dan Moore Memorial and Boylesports Champion Chase at Punchestown Festival; Well beaten behind Big Zeb first time up and same story at Christmas, but as potent a threat as ever for in form team.
Sizing Europe: Recouped his former promise (should have won 2008 Champion Hurdle) over fences last season, completing a stunning 5 timer in the Arkle; Hasn’t won since but not for lack of class, the step up to open company just proving too much and in retrospect he faced a near impossible task trying to beat Kauto Star last time at Down Royal; Drops back to best trip here with pacemaker to help, which is huge positive and to be respected.
Scotsirish: Ran well in a series of races last season, the best of those being an excellent second under topweight in the Topham, also winning the Normans’s Grove Chase; Has been below par in his 2 runs this season, although he improved a lot to be third behind Big Zeb and Sizing Europe.
Chasing Cars: Hasn’t proven too successful over cross country fences and acting as pacemaker here for Sizing Europe.
VERDICT: The biggest pointer to future races in a Grade 1 in all but name maybe the reappearance of Sizing Europe (pacemaker aided) back at his ideal trip of two miles. BIG ZEB’s the clear standout and is probably going to take on the way to a tilt at a second successive Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival but beware of lumping on him with his close rival Golden Silver also in attendance here.
Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle
2.50 Punchestown
Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €26,005
Pick: Gagewell Flyer (win)
Gagewell Flyer: Has been excellent on both starts this season, winning with ease at Navan before coming home clear in the Slaney Novice Hurdle last time; Turning into a very useful horse and likely to take the beating here.
Beyerley Bear: Improved for switch of yards when battling hard to take bumper and then creating a good impression on his hurdling debut at same venue; Should have more to come and no surprise if he’s up to the grade.
Earlson Gray: This actually his Irish debut, having made a fairly useful hurdler/chaser in France before losing his form very badly over the past season and a half; Not to be written off although he’s second string on jockey bookings.
Seafield: Showed plenty of promise in bumpers and readily built on that when grinding down useful Datokepe, showing immense promise on his hurdling debut; Trip was too short (half brother to Joncol) and organised himself remarkably well over hurdles for a horse that’s 17 hands; Proved extremely disappointing last time out but worth more time.
Tornedo Shay: Proved very successful in bumpers, winning three times as well as coming second to Hidden Universe in the Punchestown Champion Bumper; Fairly bolted in on hurdling debut but disappointingly beaten under penalty last time.
Big Game Hunter: Only scraped home on debut (demoted then reinstated on appeal) and not bettered that form since apart from a close third behind Rick and Grade 1 winner Blackstairmountain last time; Has a hard task on here but booking of Barry Geraghty positive at least.
Joe Smooth: Improved massively for switch to hurdles, coming second behind Hidden Universe at Leopardstown before showing the merit of that run when bolting in last time; Not totally discounted off handy racing weight.
VERDICT: A intriguing race with plenty of useful form if you look closely enough. GAGEWELL FLYER is the obvious choice to follow up his win in the Slaney Hurdle although if a penalty gets him then Beyerley Bear, Joe Smooth and especially Seafield if back to his best are all valid choices to take advantage.
Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €26,005
Pick: Gagewell Flyer (win)
Gagewell Flyer: Has been excellent on both starts this season, winning with ease at Navan before coming home clear in the Slaney Novice Hurdle last time; Turning into a very useful horse and likely to take the beating here.
Beyerley Bear: Improved for switch of yards when battling hard to take bumper and then creating a good impression on his hurdling debut at same venue; Should have more to come and no surprise if he’s up to the grade.
Earlson Gray: This actually his Irish debut, having made a fairly useful hurdler/chaser in France before losing his form very badly over the past season and a half; Not to be written off although he’s second string on jockey bookings.
Seafield: Showed plenty of promise in bumpers and readily built on that when grinding down useful Datokepe, showing immense promise on his hurdling debut; Trip was too short (half brother to Joncol) and organised himself remarkably well over hurdles for a horse that’s 17 hands; Proved extremely disappointing last time out but worth more time.
Tornedo Shay: Proved very successful in bumpers, winning three times as well as coming second to Hidden Universe in the Punchestown Champion Bumper; Fairly bolted in on hurdling debut but disappointingly beaten under penalty last time.
Big Game Hunter: Only scraped home on debut (demoted then reinstated on appeal) and not bettered that form since apart from a close third behind Rick and Grade 1 winner Blackstairmountain last time; Has a hard task on here but booking of Barry Geraghty positive at least.
Joe Smooth: Improved massively for switch to hurdles, coming second behind Hidden Universe at Leopardstown before showing the merit of that run when bolting in last time; Not totally discounted off handy racing weight.
VERDICT: A intriguing race with plenty of useful form if you look closely enough. GAGEWELL FLYER is the obvious choice to follow up his win in the Slaney Hurdle although if a penalty gets him then Beyerley Bear, Joe Smooth and especially Seafield if back to his best are all valid choices to take advantage.
River Don' Novice Hurdle
2.45 Doncaster
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The River Don Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £14,252
Pick: Join Together (win)
Buck Mulligan: Made hay winning two small field chases after switching yards last year and bolted up on return to hurdles at Wincantion; Worth the step up in class.
Court In Suprise: Created good impression when winning at Hereford on his hurdles debut and maybe not best judged on his Newbury fourth, as he'd have wanted a step up in trip; Has it here and quietly fancied.
Lively Baron: Unbeaten in three starts since his debut, having won a pair of 2 & a half mile Novice Hurdles; Needs to improve on bare form but rates better than that anyway and bred to live the step up in trip.
Iron Chancellor: Improved on his debut form when getting nosed out by inches by State Benefit at Ffos Las; Should improve again for that and not discounted.
Join Together: Let down by lack of experience when third to Court In Motion on hurdling bow at Exeter and bettered that form in defeat when second to Mossley in Grade 2 at Cheltenham; Has every chance of going one better.
Rose Of The Moon: Made a hugely promising hurdling debut at Cheltenham, staying on past plenty of very useful horses and nearly catching very smart prospect in Bobs Worth; Every chance here.
Super Villain: Showed useful form when placed 3 times in bumpers, and similar start over hurdles; Has a lot to do to really get involved.
Miss Overdrive: Solid and reliable choice having run well in handicaps the last thrice; Vulnerable to less exposed size.
VERDICT: A useful race with plenty of good types. Rose Of The Moon made a great start to life over hurdles last time out at Cheltenham and will be many choice to go one better, but JOIN TOGETHER looks sure to win a race sooner rather than later and is taken to beat a useful field here.
Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The River Don Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £14,252
Pick: Join Together (win)
Buck Mulligan: Made hay winning two small field chases after switching yards last year and bolted up on return to hurdles at Wincantion; Worth the step up in class.
Court In Suprise: Created good impression when winning at Hereford on his hurdles debut and maybe not best judged on his Newbury fourth, as he'd have wanted a step up in trip; Has it here and quietly fancied.
Lively Baron: Unbeaten in three starts since his debut, having won a pair of 2 & a half mile Novice Hurdles; Needs to improve on bare form but rates better than that anyway and bred to live the step up in trip.
Iron Chancellor: Improved on his debut form when getting nosed out by inches by State Benefit at Ffos Las; Should improve again for that and not discounted.
Join Together: Let down by lack of experience when third to Court In Motion on hurdling bow at Exeter and bettered that form in defeat when second to Mossley in Grade 2 at Cheltenham; Has every chance of going one better.
Rose Of The Moon: Made a hugely promising hurdling debut at Cheltenham, staying on past plenty of very useful horses and nearly catching very smart prospect in Bobs Worth; Every chance here.
Super Villain: Showed useful form when placed 3 times in bumpers, and similar start over hurdles; Has a lot to do to really get involved.
Miss Overdrive: Solid and reliable choice having run well in handicaps the last thrice; Vulnerable to less exposed size.
VERDICT: A useful race with plenty of good types. Rose Of The Moon made a great start to life over hurdles last time out at Cheltenham and will be many choice to go one better, but JOIN TOGETHER looks sure to win a race sooner rather than later and is taken to beat a useful field here.
Cheltenham Trials Day - Triumph Hurdle Trial
12.55 Cheltenham
JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Registered As The Finesse Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO only)
Winner £12,827
Pick: Indian Daudie (win)
Indian Daudaie: Took time to get the hang of things in France but improved massively for experience, coming second (albeit remote) in a Grade 1 Hurdle; Has to give away 3lbs but no surprise to see bug run.
Maoi Chinn Tire: Sprang the shock of the season when running away with listed hurdle at 200/1 at beginning of season; Easy to presume that's a fluke but the form seems very solid and realistically can only improve from that, so one to be taken seriously (form boosted since).
Akula: Gave it a good go under a penalty when trying for a follow up bid at Huntingdon last time, having previously bolted up at Ludlow; Third over C&D confirms he's useful and could tale a hand.
Local Hero: Has done everything asked of him in great style on both starts, dotting up at Catterick before giving weight and a beating to Franklino at Doncaster latest (easily); Well worth a step up in Grade.
Third Intention: Showed impressive attitude for a debutant when landing a good juvenile hurdle at Newbury, beating a subsequent second and winner; Every chance of building on that here and one of main players.
Lapin Garou: Shaped as if in need of race when last of 4 on hurdling debut at Newbury; This seems like too big a jump to make from his debut to his second run.
Mark Twain: Made easy work of his second start after being left well behind by A Media Luz and Grandouet; Tongue tie already on here and this much tougher.
VERDICT: Proabably not the ideal betting heat. A lot of the race may revolve around how INDIAN DAUIE performs on his first start in the UK. Third Intention is preferred to Local Hero.
JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Registered As The Finesse Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO only)
Winner £12,827
Pick: Indian Daudie (win)
Indian Daudaie: Took time to get the hang of things in France but improved massively for experience, coming second (albeit remote) in a Grade 1 Hurdle; Has to give away 3lbs but no surprise to see bug run.
Maoi Chinn Tire: Sprang the shock of the season when running away with listed hurdle at 200/1 at beginning of season; Easy to presume that's a fluke but the form seems very solid and realistically can only improve from that, so one to be taken seriously (form boosted since).
Akula: Gave it a good go under a penalty when trying for a follow up bid at Huntingdon last time, having previously bolted up at Ludlow; Third over C&D confirms he's useful and could tale a hand.
Local Hero: Has done everything asked of him in great style on both starts, dotting up at Catterick before giving weight and a beating to Franklino at Doncaster latest (easily); Well worth a step up in Grade.
Third Intention: Showed impressive attitude for a debutant when landing a good juvenile hurdle at Newbury, beating a subsequent second and winner; Every chance of building on that here and one of main players.
Lapin Garou: Shaped as if in need of race when last of 4 on hurdling debut at Newbury; This seems like too big a jump to make from his debut to his second run.
Mark Twain: Made easy work of his second start after being left well behind by A Media Luz and Grandouet; Tongue tie already on here and this much tougher.
VERDICT: Proabably not the ideal betting heat. A lot of the race may revolve around how INDIAN DAUIE performs on his first start in the UK. Third Intention is preferred to Local Hero.
Cheltenham Trials Day - Novice Handicap Chass
1.30 Cheltenham
Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5YO plus)
Winner £12,524 - 9 run - Draw Advantage: None
Pick: The Giant Bolster (each/way)
The Giant Bolster: Proved an absolute revelation when sixth in the Neptune and was crying out for the longer trip on that evidence; Made excellent start to fencing when winning by 11 lengths and was still well there when falling in good race Cheltenham last time; Overpriced.
Pearlysteps: Already doing well over fences, having bumped into two very classy prospects on his three starts (won other); May be weighted to best but respected.
Ikorodu Road: Made up into a useful chaser for new yard and was reportedly leading by 2 lengths when falling at Newbury last time (Mist made race unviewable); Should go close to winning if able to literally repeat that form.
Shakalakaboomboom: Already improved massively for handicaps, winning decent events at Newbury and Taunton in good style; Rise in weights fair and can go close for in form yard.
Vino Greigo: Very useful hurdler who wasn't too far short of best over hurdles but hasn't really taken to chasing; Ran well when third at Newbury but has more on his plate here and own ideas about the game puts doubt over wether he can run that well again.
Cootehill: Was a very useful hurdler (won listed hurdle at Kempton and big handicap at Market; Made good start over fences when winning twice but 2 poor efforts temper enthusiasm.
Ravethebrave: Progressive over fences, winning on debut before showing better form in defeat behind Fine Parchment and Mistree Dancer; Up for that but should take a hand here for in-form yard.
Mistree Dancer: Was the main beneficiary of the fall of Ikoroudu Road when holding off Ravethebrave to win at Newbury last time out; Closely matched with Ravethebrave and Ikorodu from last time but likely to prove prominent anyway.
Diamond Brook: Fortuitous to be at 2-2 over fences despite a mire assured round of jumping at Exeter last time; Could well improve again but has a lot more on his plate here.
VERDICT: Ravethebrave is taken to come on top out of the three Newbury rivals, while Shakalakaboomboom has won both his handicap chases in great style, but THE GIANT BOLSTER is overpriced based on what he's shown so far and wasn't beaten when falling at the Open meeting last time out and had been given plenty of time since to get over that.
Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5YO plus)
Winner £12,524 - 9 run - Draw Advantage: None
Pick: The Giant Bolster (each/way)
The Giant Bolster: Proved an absolute revelation when sixth in the Neptune and was crying out for the longer trip on that evidence; Made excellent start to fencing when winning by 11 lengths and was still well there when falling in good race Cheltenham last time; Overpriced.
Pearlysteps: Already doing well over fences, having bumped into two very classy prospects on his three starts (won other); May be weighted to best but respected.
Ikorodu Road: Made up into a useful chaser for new yard and was reportedly leading by 2 lengths when falling at Newbury last time (Mist made race unviewable); Should go close to winning if able to literally repeat that form.
Shakalakaboomboom: Already improved massively for handicaps, winning decent events at Newbury and Taunton in good style; Rise in weights fair and can go close for in form yard.
Vino Greigo: Very useful hurdler who wasn't too far short of best over hurdles but hasn't really taken to chasing; Ran well when third at Newbury but has more on his plate here and own ideas about the game puts doubt over wether he can run that well again.
Cootehill: Was a very useful hurdler (won listed hurdle at Kempton and big handicap at Market; Made good start over fences when winning twice but 2 poor efforts temper enthusiasm.
Ravethebrave: Progressive over fences, winning on debut before showing better form in defeat behind Fine Parchment and Mistree Dancer; Up for that but should take a hand here for in-form yard.
Mistree Dancer: Was the main beneficiary of the fall of Ikoroudu Road when holding off Ravethebrave to win at Newbury last time out; Closely matched with Ravethebrave and Ikorodu from last time but likely to prove prominent anyway.
Diamond Brook: Fortuitous to be at 2-2 over fences despite a mire assured round of jumping at Exeter last time; Could well improve again but has a lot more on his plate here.
VERDICT: Ravethebrave is taken to come on top out of the three Newbury rivals, while Shakalakaboomboom has won both his handicap chases in great style, but THE GIANT BOLSTER is overpriced based on what he's shown so far and wasn't beaten when falling at the Open meeting last time out and had been given plenty of time since to get over that.
Friday, 28 January 2011
Cheltenham Trials Day - Classic Novices Hurdle
3.05 Cheltenham
Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Classic Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £14,252
Pick: Backspin (win)
Astracad: Has impressed deeply in winning three of last 4 handicap hurdles but handicapper may have overreacted to his decisive win of an open but relatively modest handicap, an impression confirmed when he was eighth in the Greatwood; Well beaten on last 2 starts.
Backspin: Followed up an impressive Irish Bumper win with equally impressive hurdling debut, going away on the bridle from three decent novices; Proved himself top class when winning the Challow by 8 lengths on his last run and that form only bettered with subsequent win from Court In Motion (who won a Grade 2 by 21 lengths); Serious prospect.
Bobs Worth: Taken a big step forward with every single run under rules, and bettered form and probably performance of his nine length debut win when coming home with relative ease over course and distance; Apparently going to be kept under wraps afterwards but sign that he’s highly regarded in fact that he runs here so taken very seriously.
Champion Court: Only had two runs for current yard but has already taken a Grade 2 hurdle here, some achievement considering it was his only his hurdles debut; Form of that race may not have been set alight (although the second ran a cracker behind a classy sort at Kempton) and while he has more on his plate here, he’s got more to give.
Rock On Ruby: Very progressive three time bumper winner who fairly slammed a useful field first time out over hurdles at Newbury, leading into and out of the mist (Grade 1 second Megastar beaten 6 lengths, and a previous 15 length winner well back in third); Should like this new trip and big player here.
Drive Time: Unbeaten on the flat for Jim Bolger (was ahead of Blackstairmounatin on the flat, and also Red Rock Canyon); Made a very stylish hurdles debut at Doncaster and high class prospect.
Habbie Simpson: Won first 2 over hurdles by wide margins before good third to Bobs Worth over this course and distance last time; Meets on 4lbs better terms so shouldn’t be far away and no surprise to see a big show.
Brunswick Gold: Made a perfectly sound hurdling debut when chasing home Drive Time at Doncaster recently and has the benefit of being 4lbs better off with the winner; Should improve and while not disrespected, has it all to do.
Ohio Gold: Has run well on all four hurdles starts, especially when running on hard after being squeezed up before the last on his most previous start; Still has a lot to do to be involved in the finish here.
Sivola De Sivola: Well clear of the rest when runner-up in 2m Huntingdon novice hurdle 2 weeks ago; Step up in trip finds.
VERDICT: Habbie Simpson, Champion Court, Bobs Worth and Rock On Ruby are all fascinating prospects but BACKSPIN showed serious class when bolting up in the Challow Hurdle last time and the form has already been franked. Drive Time could well be one to watch with the future in mind.
Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Classic Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £14,252
Pick: Backspin (win)
Astracad: Has impressed deeply in winning three of last 4 handicap hurdles but handicapper may have overreacted to his decisive win of an open but relatively modest handicap, an impression confirmed when he was eighth in the Greatwood; Well beaten on last 2 starts.
Backspin: Followed up an impressive Irish Bumper win with equally impressive hurdling debut, going away on the bridle from three decent novices; Proved himself top class when winning the Challow by 8 lengths on his last run and that form only bettered with subsequent win from Court In Motion (who won a Grade 2 by 21 lengths); Serious prospect.
Bobs Worth: Taken a big step forward with every single run under rules, and bettered form and probably performance of his nine length debut win when coming home with relative ease over course and distance; Apparently going to be kept under wraps afterwards but sign that he’s highly regarded in fact that he runs here so taken very seriously.
Champion Court: Only had two runs for current yard but has already taken a Grade 2 hurdle here, some achievement considering it was his only his hurdles debut; Form of that race may not have been set alight (although the second ran a cracker behind a classy sort at Kempton) and while he has more on his plate here, he’s got more to give.
Rock On Ruby: Very progressive three time bumper winner who fairly slammed a useful field first time out over hurdles at Newbury, leading into and out of the mist (Grade 1 second Megastar beaten 6 lengths, and a previous 15 length winner well back in third); Should like this new trip and big player here.
Drive Time: Unbeaten on the flat for Jim Bolger (was ahead of Blackstairmounatin on the flat, and also Red Rock Canyon); Made a very stylish hurdles debut at Doncaster and high class prospect.
Habbie Simpson: Won first 2 over hurdles by wide margins before good third to Bobs Worth over this course and distance last time; Meets on 4lbs better terms so shouldn’t be far away and no surprise to see a big show.
Brunswick Gold: Made a perfectly sound hurdling debut when chasing home Drive Time at Doncaster recently and has the benefit of being 4lbs better off with the winner; Should improve and while not disrespected, has it all to do.
Ohio Gold: Has run well on all four hurdles starts, especially when running on hard after being squeezed up before the last on his most previous start; Still has a lot to do to be involved in the finish here.
Sivola De Sivola: Well clear of the rest when runner-up in 2m Huntingdon novice hurdle 2 weeks ago; Step up in trip finds.
VERDICT: Habbie Simpson, Champion Court, Bobs Worth and Rock On Ruby are all fascinating prospects but BACKSPIN showed serious class when bolting up in the Challow Hurdle last time and the form has already been franked. Drive Time could well be one to watch with the future in mind.
Cheltenham Trials Day - Argento Chase
2.30 Cheltenham
Argento Chase (Registered As The Cotswold Chase) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £51,309
Pick: Punchestowns (win)
Punchestowns: Rapidly developed into a top-class hurdler, winning 4 of 7 starts including the Long Walk Hurdle and coming second in the Cleeve and World Hurdle in March; Continued in the same vein over fences when dotting upon his first 2 starts over fences and although he’s been beaten on both occasions since, has valid excuses; Bad preparation before being launched too soon into RSA Chase (injured), and should improve plenty for his reappearance at Newbury last month (gave 3lbs to runner up); Should improve plenty and arguably the one to beat.
Madison Du Berlais: Was an absolute revelation 2 seasons ago when winning this very race (off a 12lbs higher mark the Levy Board Chase (beat Denman by 23 lengths ) and Totesport Bowl; Hasn’t been in the same form since due to a mark of 169 but ran creditably on most occasions since barring a poor run in the King George; This not his favourite course.
Neptune Collonges: Has been rather underrated in presence of Denman and Kauto Star, having come third in Gold Cup behind Denman and excellent second behind Kauto 2 years ago before injury struck; Was brought down in Hennessy and while seemingly disappointed last time, could have done with a much better start and will improve for that run fitness wise; Entry here suggests stable believe he’s retained ablity.
The Tother One: Quickly made up into very smart chaser after a lay-off, coming arguably unlucky second in Badger Ales Trophy and behind The Packadge at Cheltenham; Ruined his chances by jumping badly a lot last season but has held his jumping together much better this year, coming second behind Nacarat in the Charlie Hall chase and being beaten only by Denman, Burton Port and Diamond Harry in the Hennessy last time; That run excellent and small field set to suit.
Tidal Bay: Never really went on after hugely promising novice season but showed good promise over hurdles, winning the Cleeve; Failed to build on that with a lacklustre seventh at Cheltenham but right back to form when coming less than two lengths second to Imperial Commander in the Betfair Chase last time; May prove flattered by that but this should suit.
VERDICT: The race revolves around how well The Tother One and Tidal Bay travel in this small field, but PUNCHESTOWNS still remains a horse of considerable potential and will surely improve for his reappearance run last month, so is taken to put down his Gold Cup marker.
Argento Chase (Registered As The Cotswold Chase) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £51,309
Pick: Punchestowns (win)
Punchestowns: Rapidly developed into a top-class hurdler, winning 4 of 7 starts including the Long Walk Hurdle and coming second in the Cleeve and World Hurdle in March; Continued in the same vein over fences when dotting upon his first 2 starts over fences and although he’s been beaten on both occasions since, has valid excuses; Bad preparation before being launched too soon into RSA Chase (injured), and should improve plenty for his reappearance at Newbury last month (gave 3lbs to runner up); Should improve plenty and arguably the one to beat.
Madison Du Berlais: Was an absolute revelation 2 seasons ago when winning this very race (off a 12lbs higher mark the Levy Board Chase (beat Denman by 23 lengths ) and Totesport Bowl; Hasn’t been in the same form since due to a mark of 169 but ran creditably on most occasions since barring a poor run in the King George; This not his favourite course.
Neptune Collonges: Has been rather underrated in presence of Denman and Kauto Star, having come third in Gold Cup behind Denman and excellent second behind Kauto 2 years ago before injury struck; Was brought down in Hennessy and while seemingly disappointed last time, could have done with a much better start and will improve for that run fitness wise; Entry here suggests stable believe he’s retained ablity.
The Tother One: Quickly made up into very smart chaser after a lay-off, coming arguably unlucky second in Badger Ales Trophy and behind The Packadge at Cheltenham; Ruined his chances by jumping badly a lot last season but has held his jumping together much better this year, coming second behind Nacarat in the Charlie Hall chase and being beaten only by Denman, Burton Port and Diamond Harry in the Hennessy last time; That run excellent and small field set to suit.
Tidal Bay: Never really went on after hugely promising novice season but showed good promise over hurdles, winning the Cleeve; Failed to build on that with a lacklustre seventh at Cheltenham but right back to form when coming less than two lengths second to Imperial Commander in the Betfair Chase last time; May prove flattered by that but this should suit.
VERDICT: The race revolves around how well The Tother One and Tidal Bay travel in this small field, but PUNCHESTOWNS still remains a horse of considerable potential and will surely improve for his reappearance run last month, so is taken to put down his Gold Cup marker.
Cheltenham Trials Day - Cleeve Hurdle
3.35 Cheltenham
Rewards4Racing Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £22,804
Pick: Grands Crus (win)
Cristal Bonus: Fascinating contender, coming here having been successful 4 times in France but best effort came in defeat (second) in Grade 1 at Auteuil; Made a good enough debut when 5th behind Menorah (other useful prospects behind); Unproven beyond middle distances and this is another a tough task.
Kayf Aramis: Has been put into Graded company since winning the Pertemps Final in 2009, and has performed admirably, never disgracing himself in process; Won in grand style under penalty last time out but has it a lot tougher here, so hard to recommend under a big penalty.
Grands Crus: Has improved hand over first for the step up in trip this season, bolting up in two good handicaps here and at Haydock; Jump from handicapping to Graded class not impossible in this division and ratings give him every chance of making a big mark here.
Restless Harry: Became one of most likeable horses in training last season, dotting up in smart Cheltenham Novice Hurdle before running titanic race in Albert Bartlett (dotted up last time seen last year); Ran a very pleasing race considering that he was left 10 lengths behind at the start (beaten only 11 & ½ lengths in the end) in Silver Trophy; Was a well beaten third behind Bug Bucks last time but is fond of 3 miles here so not discounted.
Sprit River: Developed into a very talented hurdler last season, and showed his class when romping home in Coral Cup at Cheltenham Festival; Fallen twice chasing since but was turning into a very good hurdler before that and worth another chance here, as he’s highly rated.
Arcalis: Hasn’t won since 2007 and is unproven at more than 2m4f; Has run well in handicaps the last thrice and behind Big Bucks too, but passed over.
Ballyfoy: Looks out of his depth.
Benband Head: Bolted up when last seen here in October 2009, and was well held in the Silver Trophy on his return; Looked a beaten favourite when falling at the last on his previous run and others preferred.
Bensalem: Horse that pushed Diamond Harry close over hurdles 2 seasons ago and continued in largely the same vein over fences; Won on his chase debut and was beaten by a good horse in Take The Breeze next time (again over fences); Fell when traveling really well in the William Hill Chase but storming effort to be second to Quevga at the Punchestown Festival; Stable can get them back from long absences, well in on that form and arguably the one to bet on the book.
Gwanako: Ran only four times last season, but showed promise on all of those runs, making good headway coming to the business end of the Byrne Group Plate; was still in contention for minor honours when falling two out behind Edgbriar over C&D earlier this season and made good comeback over hurdles last time out; This seems too tough.
Hills Of Aran: Looked useful over fences (won both starts over fences in 2009/10, and looks to have retained most of his ability judged on last 2 hurdles runs (well beaten twice over fences since) and has a lot to do to be winning here based on his form with Grands Crus.
Kayf Aramis: Has been put into Graded company since winning the Pertemps Final in 2009, and has performed admirably, never disgracing himself in process; Ran solid race when second behind Fair Along and sure to give it his best shot.
Knockara Beau: Tough and consistent hurdler who posted a huge new best when fifth in the Ballymore hurdle at the Cheltenham festival; based on his form (just behind Burton Port in 2 big races last season) would be a realistic contender, but needs far more than he’s shown this season for that to be the case.
Mobaasher: Wasn’t as good over fences as he was over hurdles last season and has already bagged a win back over hurdles; This is a steep rise back in class though, and hard to see him winning.
Organisetur: Has a solid record of 4 hurdles wins out of 7 starts (never been worse than 4th), although all 4 of those have been at Taunton; Posted a very good effort when second to Dynaste at Taunton and also in the Lanzarote last time, so probably one of the better chances today.
Sweet Seville: Looks totally out of his depth here.
VERDICT: A chance is taken on GRANDS CRUS to lay down his World Hurdle marker here and prove that he can handle better ground. There are numerous challengers, the best of which is Bensalem, although Sprit River and especially Restless Harry are ones to take note of.
Rewards4Racing Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £22,804
Pick: Grands Crus (win)
Cristal Bonus: Fascinating contender, coming here having been successful 4 times in France but best effort came in defeat (second) in Grade 1 at Auteuil; Made a good enough debut when 5th behind Menorah (other useful prospects behind); Unproven beyond middle distances and this is another a tough task.
Kayf Aramis: Has been put into Graded company since winning the Pertemps Final in 2009, and has performed admirably, never disgracing himself in process; Won in grand style under penalty last time out but has it a lot tougher here, so hard to recommend under a big penalty.
Grands Crus: Has improved hand over first for the step up in trip this season, bolting up in two good handicaps here and at Haydock; Jump from handicapping to Graded class not impossible in this division and ratings give him every chance of making a big mark here.
Restless Harry: Became one of most likeable horses in training last season, dotting up in smart Cheltenham Novice Hurdle before running titanic race in Albert Bartlett (dotted up last time seen last year); Ran a very pleasing race considering that he was left 10 lengths behind at the start (beaten only 11 & ½ lengths in the end) in Silver Trophy; Was a well beaten third behind Bug Bucks last time but is fond of 3 miles here so not discounted.
Sprit River: Developed into a very talented hurdler last season, and showed his class when romping home in Coral Cup at Cheltenham Festival; Fallen twice chasing since but was turning into a very good hurdler before that and worth another chance here, as he’s highly rated.
Arcalis: Hasn’t won since 2007 and is unproven at more than 2m4f; Has run well in handicaps the last thrice and behind Big Bucks too, but passed over.
Ballyfoy: Looks out of his depth.
Benband Head: Bolted up when last seen here in October 2009, and was well held in the Silver Trophy on his return; Looked a beaten favourite when falling at the last on his previous run and others preferred.
Bensalem: Horse that pushed Diamond Harry close over hurdles 2 seasons ago and continued in largely the same vein over fences; Won on his chase debut and was beaten by a good horse in Take The Breeze next time (again over fences); Fell when traveling really well in the William Hill Chase but storming effort to be second to Quevga at the Punchestown Festival; Stable can get them back from long absences, well in on that form and arguably the one to bet on the book.
Gwanako: Ran only four times last season, but showed promise on all of those runs, making good headway coming to the business end of the Byrne Group Plate; was still in contention for minor honours when falling two out behind Edgbriar over C&D earlier this season and made good comeback over hurdles last time out; This seems too tough.
Hills Of Aran: Looked useful over fences (won both starts over fences in 2009/10, and looks to have retained most of his ability judged on last 2 hurdles runs (well beaten twice over fences since) and has a lot to do to be winning here based on his form with Grands Crus.
Kayf Aramis: Has been put into Graded company since winning the Pertemps Final in 2009, and has performed admirably, never disgracing himself in process; Ran solid race when second behind Fair Along and sure to give it his best shot.
Knockara Beau: Tough and consistent hurdler who posted a huge new best when fifth in the Ballymore hurdle at the Cheltenham festival; based on his form (just behind Burton Port in 2 big races last season) would be a realistic contender, but needs far more than he’s shown this season for that to be the case.
Mobaasher: Wasn’t as good over fences as he was over hurdles last season and has already bagged a win back over hurdles; This is a steep rise back in class though, and hard to see him winning.
Organisetur: Has a solid record of 4 hurdles wins out of 7 starts (never been worse than 4th), although all 4 of those have been at Taunton; Posted a very good effort when second to Dynaste at Taunton and also in the Lanzarote last time, so probably one of the better chances today.
Sweet Seville: Looks totally out of his depth here.
VERDICT: A chance is taken on GRANDS CRUS to lay down his World Hurdle marker here and prove that he can handle better ground. There are numerous challengers, the best of which is Bensalem, although Sprit River and especially Restless Harry are ones to take note of.
Cheltenham Trials Day - Murphy Group Chase
2.00 Cheltenham
Murphy Group Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £22,804
Pick: Whishfull Thinking (win)
Noland: Impressive winner of the John Durkan when last seen just over 2 years ago, having recovered from a pair of rather disappointing festival efforts in Novice Company; Came second to stablemate Pepe Simo in an AW Bumper on Tuesday, and should have come on massively for that; Even so, hard to know how fit he will be exactly, and big task on here although he’s handicapped very well if fit and ready.
Little Josh: Jumped better than most of his previous starts when dead heating with very promising Weird Al at Carlisle and confirmed himself new horse when romping home in Paddy Power Gold Cup, never looking like getting caught from long way out; Did much the same until the rise (and increased attentions of other jockeys) caught him out when he nose-dived 2 out; No reason why he can’t go well here aging but life will be just as tough.
Chapoturgeon: Vastly improved when running away with the Jewson Handicap at the Festival here two seasons ago; Has struggled since and this only second run since breathing operation, so hard to be recommending.
Whisfull Thinking: 3-time winning hurdler (unlucky to fall when holding serious claims in Coral Cup at the festival) who has who has quickly recovered from a fall on his chase debut to win Grade 2 at Wincanton and finish second to Reve de Sivola here last time (poor trip; hampered);Has plenty of potential off this mark with a good trip.
Bakebenscher; Won 2 of 4 starts over fences last season and was always going to struggle in such a good race coming back from his stress fracture last time out; Still has something to prove.
The Sawyer: Bold front-runner who has won two renewals of this contest, and 6 out of his eight wins are in January; 5 lb higher than last season and yet to fire this term (doesn’t seem in same form) but just can’t be ruled out and worse choices here.
Atouchbetweenacara: Ran better than the bare facts suggest in the face of a stiff task latest but Simply hasn’t fulfilled promise he showed when winning Grade 2 limited handicap and not appealing here.
Buffalo Bob: Progressive chaser who ran well at Cheltenham last time until seemingly failing for stamina over extended 3m2f at Cheltenham last time; Drop in trip was probably what he needed, but this trip may well be too sharp for him unless aggressive front running tactics are used.
Fine Parchment: Facile winner of a Condtional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase two starts ago and change in ground might have had a lot to do with his flop since; Change in ground might have had something to do with it, and this will be run to suit, but also has a lot more on his plate here.
Drever Route: Improved a lot when landing a 2 mile Catterick handicap in March and another improved effort when scoring at Wetherby when last seen in October; Up 12lbs for winning a small race though and not sure that form his worth the rise.
VERDICT: A lot may depend on how good Noland comes back after a long layoff, a jumpers bumper win being his only run since the John Durkan of 2008. This won’t be any easier for Little Josh after his valiant fifth last time for all that he won’t have to deal with the first four home from that start again (all of whom are very good horses), and WHISFULL THINKING has a solid chance in a handicap based on his chase runs so far, the last of which saw him giving 8lbs to a useful chaser in Reve De Sivola.
Murphy Group Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £22,804
Pick: Whishfull Thinking (win)
Noland: Impressive winner of the John Durkan when last seen just over 2 years ago, having recovered from a pair of rather disappointing festival efforts in Novice Company; Came second to stablemate Pepe Simo in an AW Bumper on Tuesday, and should have come on massively for that; Even so, hard to know how fit he will be exactly, and big task on here although he’s handicapped very well if fit and ready.
Little Josh: Jumped better than most of his previous starts when dead heating with very promising Weird Al at Carlisle and confirmed himself new horse when romping home in Paddy Power Gold Cup, never looking like getting caught from long way out; Did much the same until the rise (and increased attentions of other jockeys) caught him out when he nose-dived 2 out; No reason why he can’t go well here aging but life will be just as tough.
Chapoturgeon: Vastly improved when running away with the Jewson Handicap at the Festival here two seasons ago; Has struggled since and this only second run since breathing operation, so hard to be recommending.
Whisfull Thinking: 3-time winning hurdler (unlucky to fall when holding serious claims in Coral Cup at the festival) who has who has quickly recovered from a fall on his chase debut to win Grade 2 at Wincanton and finish second to Reve de Sivola here last time (poor trip; hampered);Has plenty of potential off this mark with a good trip.
Bakebenscher; Won 2 of 4 starts over fences last season and was always going to struggle in such a good race coming back from his stress fracture last time out; Still has something to prove.
The Sawyer: Bold front-runner who has won two renewals of this contest, and 6 out of his eight wins are in January; 5 lb higher than last season and yet to fire this term (doesn’t seem in same form) but just can’t be ruled out and worse choices here.
Atouchbetweenacara: Ran better than the bare facts suggest in the face of a stiff task latest but Simply hasn’t fulfilled promise he showed when winning Grade 2 limited handicap and not appealing here.
Buffalo Bob: Progressive chaser who ran well at Cheltenham last time until seemingly failing for stamina over extended 3m2f at Cheltenham last time; Drop in trip was probably what he needed, but this trip may well be too sharp for him unless aggressive front running tactics are used.
Fine Parchment: Facile winner of a Condtional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase two starts ago and change in ground might have had a lot to do with his flop since; Change in ground might have had something to do with it, and this will be run to suit, but also has a lot more on his plate here.
Drever Route: Improved a lot when landing a 2 mile Catterick handicap in March and another improved effort when scoring at Wetherby when last seen in October; Up 12lbs for winning a small race though and not sure that form his worth the rise.
VERDICT: A lot may depend on how good Noland comes back after a long layoff, a jumpers bumper win being his only run since the John Durkan of 2008. This won’t be any easier for Little Josh after his valiant fifth last time for all that he won’t have to deal with the first four home from that start again (all of whom are very good horses), and WHISFULL THINKING has a solid chance in a handicap based on his chase runs so far, the last of which saw him giving 8lbs to a useful chaser in Reve De Sivola.
Wednesday, 26 January 2011
Dubai Carnival 2011 - Week 3
2.35 - Friday Trophy Handicap (Tapeta): A tricky way to start proceedings. REYNALDOTHEWIZARD looked very progressive when landing a double in the mid season here and with no reason why he shouldn’t get the mile, he’s taken. Should RIGGINS take to Dubai (and he is unbeaten on AW Surfaces) then he’s well in off 8-13 here based on his best form and could take the beating for Ryan Moore.
Advice: Reynaldothewizard (win) & Riggins (each/way)
3.10 -GNB Sprint Handicap (Turf): CLEARLY SILVER didn’t get home over seven furlongs here (raced prominently and took a wide course) but went down to a good horse in Dandy Boy and had Sir Gerry, Too Nice Name and Happy Dubai behind him on that occasion. Improvement for that first run should bring him on a lot, he’s well in on that form and he’s one of few that make real appeal. Happy Dubai looked better than ever last time and there's probably more to come from him with Dettori taking over and he should be ready to strike again, so he’s well worth backing if you want, especially at an each/way price. Montremoncy is probably the biggest threat.
Advice: Clearly Silver (win)
4.00 -Aquarius Trophy Handicap (Tapeta): PRIZEFIGHTING is preferred out of the four that reopposes from the 12 furlong handicap that was run a fortnight ago, having suffered a poor passage in a race that lacked pace. He’s potentially well in on that form and can confirm the form with Halicarnassus, Burdlaz and Dr Faustus (who suffered the worst passage of them all). It took KING OF ROME two starts to get to top form at the Carnival last year, and he’s taken ahead of the still promising Happy Valley with the step up in trip sure to suit.
Advice: Prizefighting & King Of Rome (each/way)
4.35 - Wheels Trophy Handicap (Turf): Godolphin, as with many races, probably hold the key here. I’m taking a big chance on OPINION POLL liking the ground, but he’s won on good before and is the best horse in the field to me. WHISPERING GALLERY will get every yard and is the each/way opinion with some solid Group 3 form under her belt, including a close defeat to the progressive Laaheb in the Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot. Age Of Reason can usually be relied upon and made a winning reappearance in this race last year, but this read like a much better race and he has more on his plate. Drunken Sailor wasn’t given a fair crack of the whip in two tough Australian handicaps. Both can be relied upon to go well.
Advice: Opinion Poll (win) & Whispering Gallery (each/way)
5.10 – Inside Out Trophy (Tapeta): A spell in France may not have done MR BROCK too many favours, but he’s a real standout at his best and looked on the way back when fifth here last time. He’s well up to competing in Group class races and should take the beating.
Advice: Mr Brock (win)
5.45 -Al Rashidiya (Group 2, Turf): It’s very tempting top plump for Presvis but we’re at an odd stage of his career here, having failed to show anything like his ability on four of his last six starts. He may also need the run, so is passed for IRISH FLAME, who was a top class performer in South Africa. A Grade 1 and 2 winner at Clairwood in July before runner-up in the Vodacom Durban July, a race with a history of top class performers that have gone on to success here, he can take this onto bigger things.
Advice: Irish Flame (win)
6.25 - Xpress Trophy Handicap (Turf) - Big things were expected of RAIHANA in Australia last year but she cut little ice in races that didn’t suit and has every chance on her excellent form last year, winning the UAE Oaks before chasing home classy stable companion Musir in the UAE Derby on World Cup night last March. Hujaylea got closest to compatriot Dandy Boy here recently and holds Munaddam on that evidence although that might be the case with Start Right, who was conceding 12lb to Hujaylea in the Irish Cambridgeshire (came too late) and now gets 4lbs, having been drawn out of the Newmarket Version. Goldophin run two of their many fascinating French recruits, of which Lochinver is preferred. Never out of the frame for Andre Fabre, winning a couple of minor events along the way last year, he improved to come second to Royal Bench in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein last time and has big claims on that run. Royal Revival gets the ride of Frankie Dettori, but his form seems a bit patchy and it would be interesting to see where he’s being aimed at.
Advice: Raihana (win)
Advice: Reynaldothewizard (win) & Riggins (each/way)
3.10 -GNB Sprint Handicap (Turf): CLEARLY SILVER didn’t get home over seven furlongs here (raced prominently and took a wide course) but went down to a good horse in Dandy Boy and had Sir Gerry, Too Nice Name and Happy Dubai behind him on that occasion. Improvement for that first run should bring him on a lot, he’s well in on that form and he’s one of few that make real appeal. Happy Dubai looked better than ever last time and there's probably more to come from him with Dettori taking over and he should be ready to strike again, so he’s well worth backing if you want, especially at an each/way price. Montremoncy is probably the biggest threat.
Advice: Clearly Silver (win)
4.00 -Aquarius Trophy Handicap (Tapeta): PRIZEFIGHTING is preferred out of the four that reopposes from the 12 furlong handicap that was run a fortnight ago, having suffered a poor passage in a race that lacked pace. He’s potentially well in on that form and can confirm the form with Halicarnassus, Burdlaz and Dr Faustus (who suffered the worst passage of them all). It took KING OF ROME two starts to get to top form at the Carnival last year, and he’s taken ahead of the still promising Happy Valley with the step up in trip sure to suit.
Advice: Prizefighting & King Of Rome (each/way)
4.35 - Wheels Trophy Handicap (Turf): Godolphin, as with many races, probably hold the key here. I’m taking a big chance on OPINION POLL liking the ground, but he’s won on good before and is the best horse in the field to me. WHISPERING GALLERY will get every yard and is the each/way opinion with some solid Group 3 form under her belt, including a close defeat to the progressive Laaheb in the Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot. Age Of Reason can usually be relied upon and made a winning reappearance in this race last year, but this read like a much better race and he has more on his plate. Drunken Sailor wasn’t given a fair crack of the whip in two tough Australian handicaps. Both can be relied upon to go well.
Advice: Opinion Poll (win) & Whispering Gallery (each/way)
5.10 – Inside Out Trophy (Tapeta): A spell in France may not have done MR BROCK too many favours, but he’s a real standout at his best and looked on the way back when fifth here last time. He’s well up to competing in Group class races and should take the beating.
Advice: Mr Brock (win)
5.45 -Al Rashidiya (Group 2, Turf): It’s very tempting top plump for Presvis but we’re at an odd stage of his career here, having failed to show anything like his ability on four of his last six starts. He may also need the run, so is passed for IRISH FLAME, who was a top class performer in South Africa. A Grade 1 and 2 winner at Clairwood in July before runner-up in the Vodacom Durban July, a race with a history of top class performers that have gone on to success here, he can take this onto bigger things.
Advice: Irish Flame (win)
6.25 - Xpress Trophy Handicap (Turf) - Big things were expected of RAIHANA in Australia last year but she cut little ice in races that didn’t suit and has every chance on her excellent form last year, winning the UAE Oaks before chasing home classy stable companion Musir in the UAE Derby on World Cup night last March. Hujaylea got closest to compatriot Dandy Boy here recently and holds Munaddam on that evidence although that might be the case with Start Right, who was conceding 12lb to Hujaylea in the Irish Cambridgeshire (came too late) and now gets 4lbs, having been drawn out of the Newmarket Version. Goldophin run two of their many fascinating French recruits, of which Lochinver is preferred. Never out of the frame for Andre Fabre, winning a couple of minor events along the way last year, he improved to come second to Royal Bench in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein last time and has big claims on that run. Royal Revival gets the ride of Frankie Dettori, but his form seems a bit patchy and it would be interesting to see where he’s being aimed at.
Advice: Raihana (win)
Saturday, 22 January 2011
Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novice Chase
1.45 Cheltenham
Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €52,000
Pick: Realt Dubh (win)
Flat Out: Hacked up on his hurdling debut and then ran an excellent race in light of his inexperience in the Supreme, following that up with a second behind stablemate at the Punchestown festival; Bolted in apart for one shocker at the last at Punchestown and will be tough to beat here.
Mr Cracker: Gained third chase win when bolting home unchallenged in the Greenmount Park novice chase (Grade 2) at Limerick last time; Has a lot more on in this company with the trip not so sure to suit.
Noble Prince: A strong travelling, fluent jumper who’s remarkable versatile as he showed when fourth in the World Series Hurdle before landing beginner’s chase with ease at Punchestown in October; Well behind Realt Dubh over Christmas in the Bord Na Mona here but stable in better form.
Realt Dubh: Useful over hurdles and better over fences, landing his debut with ease and seeming set to win Grade 3 (travelling well, disputing) when falling; Made amends with Craddockstown Chase win and outsped by Mikael D’Haugenet before the last in Drinmore, but right back to his best when taking advantage of below par performance of latter named horse and fall of Saludous at last to take the Bord Na Mona chase by 5 legnths: Meets three reopposing horses but no reason why he shouldn’t beat them all again.
Saludos: held on grimly from Asigh Pearl and stablemate Coole River to win a war of attrition at Punchestown in listed contest before close second in Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at this meeting last year (went on to come another close second in valuable event); Ran a tremendous race and probably not beaten when falling at the last in the Bord Na Mona last time, so given serious respect.
Shirley Casper: Grade three winner who hasn’t been able to come back like her best since being given a break/switched to fences and has mountain to climb at this level.
Tramp Stamp: Travelled well until she fell on debut (admittedly being pushed hard in the home straight); managed only third in mares Grade 3 last time so up against it here.
VERDICT: Flat Out is a potentially serious horse and Saludos wasn’t beaten at the last when falling, but REALT DUBH will be hard to beat if repeating his last effort when he came home clear in the Bord Na Mona Chase at Christmas.
Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €52,000
Pick: Realt Dubh (win)
Flat Out: Hacked up on his hurdling debut and then ran an excellent race in light of his inexperience in the Supreme, following that up with a second behind stablemate at the Punchestown festival; Bolted in apart for one shocker at the last at Punchestown and will be tough to beat here.
Mr Cracker: Gained third chase win when bolting home unchallenged in the Greenmount Park novice chase (Grade 2) at Limerick last time; Has a lot more on in this company with the trip not so sure to suit.
Noble Prince: A strong travelling, fluent jumper who’s remarkable versatile as he showed when fourth in the World Series Hurdle before landing beginner’s chase with ease at Punchestown in October; Well behind Realt Dubh over Christmas in the Bord Na Mona here but stable in better form.
Realt Dubh: Useful over hurdles and better over fences, landing his debut with ease and seeming set to win Grade 3 (travelling well, disputing) when falling; Made amends with Craddockstown Chase win and outsped by Mikael D’Haugenet before the last in Drinmore, but right back to his best when taking advantage of below par performance of latter named horse and fall of Saludous at last to take the Bord Na Mona chase by 5 legnths: Meets three reopposing horses but no reason why he shouldn’t beat them all again.
Saludos: held on grimly from Asigh Pearl and stablemate Coole River to win a war of attrition at Punchestown in listed contest before close second in Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at this meeting last year (went on to come another close second in valuable event); Ran a tremendous race and probably not beaten when falling at the last in the Bord Na Mona last time, so given serious respect.
Shirley Casper: Grade three winner who hasn’t been able to come back like her best since being given a break/switched to fences and has mountain to climb at this level.
Tramp Stamp: Travelled well until she fell on debut (admittedly being pushed hard in the home straight); managed only third in mares Grade 3 last time so up against it here.
VERDICT: Flat Out is a potentially serious horse and Saludos wasn’t beaten at the last when falling, but REALT DUBH will be hard to beat if repeating his last effort when he came home clear in the Bord Na Mona Chase at Christmas.
Irish Champion Hurdle
2.25 Leopardstown
BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €71,500
Hurricane Fly: Has only run 2 times in open company, which is testament to how difficult he can be to get fit; Immensely talented, having run down Solwhit off the back of a 273 day absence on only second run in open company in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle, and possibly even bettered that when beating him over his preferred trip and ground in the Hatton’s Grace on his seasonal debut, and unchallenged thanks to traffic problems for that rival here last time; Likely to win well again.
Solwhit: Top class and near infallible hurdler who claimed his sixth Grade 1 success when landing the Dobbins and Madigans Hurdle for the second straight time in November; Ran as solid a race an ever when second to Hurricane Fly in the Hatton’s Grace (although brused aside) and never got chance to challenge last time thanks to traffic problems (although second); As useful a rival as ever but hard to see him reversing form.
Sublimity: Seemed to be coming back to the form that won him the Champion Hurdle 2 season ago when winning December Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown but then regressed again; Hard to see him making impact in this company but placement of Robbie Hennessy must be applauded.
Thousand Stars: Improved out of all recognition last season, landing 2 handicap hurdles before bouncing back from his Pierse Hurdle disappointment with a win in the Country Hurdle and a third behind Solwhit and Hurricane Fly in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle; Didn’t find things to his liking in France and should be much better for that here, although he will have a tough task improving on his placing.
Volder La Vedette: Seriously progressive last year and tipped for major prizes when slamming Go Native by 13 lengths, following up in impressive style twice; Found top company bit too much but her third behind Solwhit and Hurricane Fly is a good effort and no surprise to see her close again.
VERDICT: We didn’t learn anything new about HURRICANE FLY when he won with ease here over Solwhit at Christmas, but nothing should be taken away from what is clearly an impressive talent and he should hold a big chance in the Champion Hurdle assuming he comes through this and gets there in one piece. This is a useful field when you consider the presence of Voler La Vedette and Thousand Stars.
BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €71,500
Hurricane Fly: Has only run 2 times in open company, which is testament to how difficult he can be to get fit; Immensely talented, having run down Solwhit off the back of a 273 day absence on only second run in open company in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle, and possibly even bettered that when beating him over his preferred trip and ground in the Hatton’s Grace on his seasonal debut, and unchallenged thanks to traffic problems for that rival here last time; Likely to win well again.
Solwhit: Top class and near infallible hurdler who claimed his sixth Grade 1 success when landing the Dobbins and Madigans Hurdle for the second straight time in November; Ran as solid a race an ever when second to Hurricane Fly in the Hatton’s Grace (although brused aside) and never got chance to challenge last time thanks to traffic problems (although second); As useful a rival as ever but hard to see him reversing form.
Sublimity: Seemed to be coming back to the form that won him the Champion Hurdle 2 season ago when winning December Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown but then regressed again; Hard to see him making impact in this company but placement of Robbie Hennessy must be applauded.
Thousand Stars: Improved out of all recognition last season, landing 2 handicap hurdles before bouncing back from his Pierse Hurdle disappointment with a win in the Country Hurdle and a third behind Solwhit and Hurricane Fly in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle; Didn’t find things to his liking in France and should be much better for that here, although he will have a tough task improving on his placing.
Volder La Vedette: Seriously progressive last year and tipped for major prizes when slamming Go Native by 13 lengths, following up in impressive style twice; Found top company bit too much but her third behind Solwhit and Hurricane Fly is a good effort and no surprise to see her close again.
VERDICT: We didn’t learn anything new about HURRICANE FLY when he won with ease here over Solwhit at Christmas, but nothing should be taken away from what is clearly an impressive talent and he should hold a big chance in the Champion Hurdle assuming he comes through this and gets there in one piece. This is a useful field when you consider the presence of Voler La Vedette and Thousand Stars.
Synergy Security Solutions Novice Hurdle
3.20 Leopardstown
Synergy Security Solutions Novice Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €25,675
Pick: Hidden Cyclone (win)
Fully Funded: Improved massively from hurdling debut when eased down to beat Couleur De La Loi by 5½ lengths in a Wexford maiden hurdle and did the same again when leading all the way for a comfortable win in the Monksfield Hurdle here last time, using easy lead to his advantage and digging deep to beat off what looked like decent field at the time; Has since disappointed when stepped up in class and has a lot to do giving weight away here.
Hidden Cyclone: Was seriously impressive on his first three starts, making step up from maiden hurdle to Grade 3 company easily with commanding 6 length win in the ‘For Auction’ Novice Hurdle (over 2 miles); Beaten into third by two extremely smart horses in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle last time and has strong claims here.
Ballyahunis: Created good impression by winning both starts this season , a maiden at Listowel and minor event at Thurles latest; Form of both events isn’t exactly strong, but clearly he’s better than that and given every chance here.
Carloswayback: Made an exciting debut when slamming Knockfierna (dual winner since) by 5 lengths at Limerick in November, not coming off the bridle to do so; Has proven disappointing since and although stable are in better form, it’s hard to really recommend him.
Imperial Shabra: Tough as old boots and made frame 4 times since winning twice in August, but barely stays this far and asking too much of him.
Si C’etait Vrai: Still going well when falling 4 out at Naas last time (decent race) and had accounted for subsequent winner The Bull Hayes at the same track on hurdling debut; Clearly useful, and rates a big threat getting 4lbs and upwards from rivals.
VERDICT: It took two extremely smart horses to defeat HIDDEN CYCLONE into third for the first time here last month, and he has outstanding claims to make amends here. Nothing else can really be discounted, with the progressive Ballyhunis likely to run well, while Si C’etait Vrai rates a threat getting weight from his opponents.
Synergy Security Solutions Novice Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €25,675
Pick: Hidden Cyclone (win)
Fully Funded: Improved massively from hurdling debut when eased down to beat Couleur De La Loi by 5½ lengths in a Wexford maiden hurdle and did the same again when leading all the way for a comfortable win in the Monksfield Hurdle here last time, using easy lead to his advantage and digging deep to beat off what looked like decent field at the time; Has since disappointed when stepped up in class and has a lot to do giving weight away here.
Hidden Cyclone: Was seriously impressive on his first three starts, making step up from maiden hurdle to Grade 3 company easily with commanding 6 length win in the ‘For Auction’ Novice Hurdle (over 2 miles); Beaten into third by two extremely smart horses in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle last time and has strong claims here.
Ballyahunis: Created good impression by winning both starts this season , a maiden at Listowel and minor event at Thurles latest; Form of both events isn’t exactly strong, but clearly he’s better than that and given every chance here.
Carloswayback: Made an exciting debut when slamming Knockfierna (dual winner since) by 5 lengths at Limerick in November, not coming off the bridle to do so; Has proven disappointing since and although stable are in better form, it’s hard to really recommend him.
Imperial Shabra: Tough as old boots and made frame 4 times since winning twice in August, but barely stays this far and asking too much of him.
Si C’etait Vrai: Still going well when falling 4 out at Naas last time (decent race) and had accounted for subsequent winner The Bull Hayes at the same track on hurdling debut; Clearly useful, and rates a big threat getting 4lbs and upwards from rivals.
VERDICT: It took two extremely smart horses to defeat HIDDEN CYCLONE into third for the first time here last month, and he has outstanding claims to make amends here. Nothing else can really be discounted, with the progressive Ballyhunis likely to run well, while Si C’etait Vrai rates a threat getting weight from his opponents.
victorchandler.com Handicap Chase
3.30 Ascot
victorchandler.com Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5YO plus)
Winner £43,834 - 11 run - Draw Advantage: None
Picks: Breedzbreeze (win) & Piraya (each/way)
Breedzbrezze: Very high class novice over fences a couple of seasons ago, winning Grade 2 at Wincanton and Feltham with ease; Subsequently injured but back with great run when second to Tartak (form boosted) last time and should have excellent chance.
Mahogany Blaze: Thoroughly capable horse on his day who has been placed in very good races and ran near his best when third behind Tartak and Carole's Legacy last time; A repeat of that gives him every chance.
Panjo Bere: Last win came off 147 in handicap company here, and ran well in the face of a stiff task latest here; Not out if it although trip doesn't encourage.
Edgebriar: howed a good attitude when winning in very similar contest on seasonal debut and this looks easier than the Paddy Power Gold Cup; Can get involved.
Piraya: Although tricky to win with, has probably matched his last winning form twice in defeat this season already; Makes each/way appeal off mark that's not too harsh here.
The Sawyer: Bold front-runner who has won two renewals of similar contest run at Cheltenham and 6 out of his eight wins are in January; Does seem to have lose his spark with age.
Tatenen: Lost his way (formerly smart chaser for Paul Nicholls) although he showed promise for Richard Rowe on his first start at Kempton; Can't be relied on to produce that form again.
Pickamus: Won three out of his four starts last season, making up into a very useful chaser; Hasn’t done nearly as well this year, and looks vulnerable off this mark in this company.
Minella Theatre: Seemed back on track and nearly as good as ever over fences when landing Stratford handicap chase on return in October; Has run badly since and hard to recommend with stable in such patchy form.
Soulard: Front runner who likes it here and may have needed his October run; Should improve but this a much harder race.
I'm A Legend: Has been in superb form of late and upped his game again when finding only a well-treated and useful rival too good last time; Can go well getting 7lbs and upwards from all contenders here.
VERDICT: If avoiding the bounce factor the first place to turn is BREEDZBREEZE in a very open handicap following his excellent return in the Peterborough Chase. Mahogany Blaze and I'm A Legend can also run big races but PIRAYA might be one for the places.
victorchandler.com Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5YO plus)
Winner £43,834 - 11 run - Draw Advantage: None
Picks: Breedzbreeze (win) & Piraya (each/way)
Breedzbrezze: Very high class novice over fences a couple of seasons ago, winning Grade 2 at Wincanton and Feltham with ease; Subsequently injured but back with great run when second to Tartak (form boosted) last time and should have excellent chance.
Mahogany Blaze: Thoroughly capable horse on his day who has been placed in very good races and ran near his best when third behind Tartak and Carole's Legacy last time; A repeat of that gives him every chance.
Panjo Bere: Last win came off 147 in handicap company here, and ran well in the face of a stiff task latest here; Not out if it although trip doesn't encourage.
Edgebriar: howed a good attitude when winning in very similar contest on seasonal debut and this looks easier than the Paddy Power Gold Cup; Can get involved.
Piraya: Although tricky to win with, has probably matched his last winning form twice in defeat this season already; Makes each/way appeal off mark that's not too harsh here.
The Sawyer: Bold front-runner who has won two renewals of similar contest run at Cheltenham and 6 out of his eight wins are in January; Does seem to have lose his spark with age.
Tatenen: Lost his way (formerly smart chaser for Paul Nicholls) although he showed promise for Richard Rowe on his first start at Kempton; Can't be relied on to produce that form again.
Pickamus: Won three out of his four starts last season, making up into a very useful chaser; Hasn’t done nearly as well this year, and looks vulnerable off this mark in this company.
Minella Theatre: Seemed back on track and nearly as good as ever over fences when landing Stratford handicap chase on return in October; Has run badly since and hard to recommend with stable in such patchy form.
Soulard: Front runner who likes it here and may have needed his October run; Should improve but this a much harder race.
I'm A Legend: Has been in superb form of late and upped his game again when finding only a well-treated and useful rival too good last time; Can go well getting 7lbs and upwards from all contenders here.
VERDICT: If avoiding the bounce factor the first place to turn is BREEDZBREEZE in a very open handicap following his excellent return in the Peterborough Chase. Mahogany Blaze and I'm A Legend can also run big races but PIRAYA might be one for the places.
Friday, 21 January 2011
Victor Chandler Chase (Registered As The Clarence House Chase)
2.25 Ascot
Victor Chandler Chase (Registered As The Clarence House Chase) (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £59,146
Pick: Petit Robin (each/way)
Crack Away Jack: Classy hurdles performer (fourth in Champion Hurdle) who is unexposed over fences, having won on debut before two good efforts upped in Grade; Still has potential to go foar in this sphere but 13 month absence may count against him here.
Gauvain: Went off the boil after winning a Grade 2 Novice Chase 2 years ago, falling to make an impact at Cheltenham and Aintree festival; Won his next 2 starts before being put on side-lines; Showed he retinas all old ability and more when beating Forpadydeplasterer and Tataniano with ease at Open Meeting although he ran well below that form when fifth in the Tingle Creek last time and needs to be back to best here.
I’m So Lucky: Made rapid improvement last year culminating in career best Celebration Chase win; Probably just about bettered that with front running fourth in Tingle Creek at Cheltenham last time, and may well be harder to catch on this track.
Kalahari King: Made fine return last season when winning valuable 2m handicap chase at Doncaster, so disappointing that he was easily beaten first time out this season(not given hard race); Well beaten in Tingle Creek and Jumpers Bumper and can’t be backed until he shows old ability intact.
Mad Max: Has made a very solid start to life over fences, and was running a big race until a crashing error two out in the Arkle; Appeared to be suited by longer trips when hacking up at Aintree, but weak finishes in the Paddy Power and December Gold Cup give impression that this track and trip will suit; Interesting contender.
Masterminded: Has proven truly outstanding in 2 mile chases, putting up one of great modern displays when cruising home in Champion Chase of 2008 and proving dominant for best part of year since; Rib injury was thought to be reason behind below par reappearance in Connaught Chase last year and was widely expected to be Champion Chaser for third time, but never able to get in race from 2 out (quick ground blamed); Had wind op and looked back to best when romping home in Amilin 1965 Chase, confirming that impression when trashing 5 reopposing rivals in Tingle Creek last time.
Petit Robin: Very capable chaser on his day as he showed when winning Desert Orchid Chase over Christmas last year; Hasn’t really held form since but has been second in this for the past two years and ran a fantastic race to be second in the Tingle Creek last time out, having been infront for a long way; May well have gotten away with it had he gone a little easier, comes to a flatter track, and yard are in red – hot form, so massive contender.
Somersby: Impressed on 4 starts novice chasing last season, winning Henry the II Chase in supremly impressive style and running second in the Arkle and at Aintree afterwards; Disappointing that he couldn’t win the Haldon Gold Cup off very favourable weight first time out even allowing for fact he should improve for strong 2m round here and fitness (very strong pace in Haldon Gold Cup tested that); Ran on from miles back to be third in the Tingle Creek, and has good claims again.
Thico Polos: Showed a lot of promise last year in decent Novice Chases, (looked very tired when falling after running well for a long way in the Feltham & Second to Punchestowns & French Opera after that); Ran great race to win Haldon Gold Cup and was still going well when falling in the Paddy Power, and ran a good second to Cornas at Sandown last time; Much more needed here.
VERDICT: At the prices, Masterminded makes no appeal, but he does seem to have a vice like grip on the race. At the prices, PETIT ROBIN looks like one of the each/way bets of the season. His yard are in great form and he’s got every chance of repeating his effort last time around an easier track. Somserby and Crack Away Jack are promising horses, while both Gauvain and I’m So Lucky could out run his odds massively.
Victor Chandler Chase (Registered As The Clarence House Chase) (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £59,146
Pick: Petit Robin (each/way)
Crack Away Jack: Classy hurdles performer (fourth in Champion Hurdle) who is unexposed over fences, having won on debut before two good efforts upped in Grade; Still has potential to go foar in this sphere but 13 month absence may count against him here.
Gauvain: Went off the boil after winning a Grade 2 Novice Chase 2 years ago, falling to make an impact at Cheltenham and Aintree festival; Won his next 2 starts before being put on side-lines; Showed he retinas all old ability and more when beating Forpadydeplasterer and Tataniano with ease at Open Meeting although he ran well below that form when fifth in the Tingle Creek last time and needs to be back to best here.
I’m So Lucky: Made rapid improvement last year culminating in career best Celebration Chase win; Probably just about bettered that with front running fourth in Tingle Creek at Cheltenham last time, and may well be harder to catch on this track.
Kalahari King: Made fine return last season when winning valuable 2m handicap chase at Doncaster, so disappointing that he was easily beaten first time out this season(not given hard race); Well beaten in Tingle Creek and Jumpers Bumper and can’t be backed until he shows old ability intact.
Mad Max: Has made a very solid start to life over fences, and was running a big race until a crashing error two out in the Arkle; Appeared to be suited by longer trips when hacking up at Aintree, but weak finishes in the Paddy Power and December Gold Cup give impression that this track and trip will suit; Interesting contender.
Masterminded: Has proven truly outstanding in 2 mile chases, putting up one of great modern displays when cruising home in Champion Chase of 2008 and proving dominant for best part of year since; Rib injury was thought to be reason behind below par reappearance in Connaught Chase last year and was widely expected to be Champion Chaser for third time, but never able to get in race from 2 out (quick ground blamed); Had wind op and looked back to best when romping home in Amilin 1965 Chase, confirming that impression when trashing 5 reopposing rivals in Tingle Creek last time.
Petit Robin: Very capable chaser on his day as he showed when winning Desert Orchid Chase over Christmas last year; Hasn’t really held form since but has been second in this for the past two years and ran a fantastic race to be second in the Tingle Creek last time out, having been infront for a long way; May well have gotten away with it had he gone a little easier, comes to a flatter track, and yard are in red – hot form, so massive contender.
Somersby: Impressed on 4 starts novice chasing last season, winning Henry the II Chase in supremly impressive style and running second in the Arkle and at Aintree afterwards; Disappointing that he couldn’t win the Haldon Gold Cup off very favourable weight first time out even allowing for fact he should improve for strong 2m round here and fitness (very strong pace in Haldon Gold Cup tested that); Ran on from miles back to be third in the Tingle Creek, and has good claims again.
Thico Polos: Showed a lot of promise last year in decent Novice Chases, (looked very tired when falling after running well for a long way in the Feltham & Second to Punchestowns & French Opera after that); Ran great race to win Haldon Gold Cup and was still going well when falling in the Paddy Power, and ran a good second to Cornas at Sandown last time; Much more needed here.
VERDICT: At the prices, Masterminded makes no appeal, but he does seem to have a vice like grip on the race. At the prices, PETIT ROBIN looks like one of the each/way bets of the season. His yard are in great form and he’s got every chance of repeating his effort last time around an easier track. Somserby and Crack Away Jack are promising horses, while both Gauvain and I’m So Lucky could out run his odds massively.
1942 Was A Vintage Year Mares' Hurdle (Grade 2)
1.50 Ascot
1942 Was A Vintage Year Mares' Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares' Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £22,804
Pick: Carole’s Legacy (win)
Carole’s Legacy: Classy mare who was second to Quevga in the Mares Hurdle at the festival; Unexposed very fences, having won three of her four starts (other in a Mare’s Chase final); Impressive when beating Banjaxed Girl at Kempton first time out and ran a great race to be second to Tartak over fences last time; Proven over 3 miles and has big chance here.
Alasi: Back to her very best last time when second to Banjaxed Girl at Sandown and travelled much the best that day; This is a step up in Grade and step up to three miles not sure to suit.
Alverstone: Improved a lot in the jumping department when opening hurdling account over 3m at Chepstow, romping home by 14 lengths; Thrashed by Sparky May next time out and while she was convincing last time out, much more is needed here.
Fit To Drive: Not too hard to dismiss although she’s a pretty useful chaser.
Gold Reef: Has improved for the better form (like many) of her stable this year, landing a good handicap first time out before showing well in defeat last time; This much tougher task.
L’Accordioniste: Unbeaten in four starts under rules and landed a very tough handicap hurdle last time out, having come from miles back in home straight; Will get much further, maturing fast, and major player here.
Seren Cwmtudu: Showed willing attitude upped in trip last time at Taunton but previous form doesn’t give her chance.
Sparky May: Has won all three of her starts over timber, despite having left her legs trailing on more than one occasion; 27 length trashing of Alverstone is seriously impressive and has claims here if three miles is up her street.
VERDICT: The seriously progressive L’Accordioniste should have a lot more to give over this trip but in CAROLE’S LEGACY she’ll have a serious rival to handle and Nicky Henderson’s mare has outstanding claims.
1942 Was A Vintage Year Mares' Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares' Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £22,804
Pick: Carole’s Legacy (win)
Carole’s Legacy: Classy mare who was second to Quevga in the Mares Hurdle at the festival; Unexposed very fences, having won three of her four starts (other in a Mare’s Chase final); Impressive when beating Banjaxed Girl at Kempton first time out and ran a great race to be second to Tartak over fences last time; Proven over 3 miles and has big chance here.
Alasi: Back to her very best last time when second to Banjaxed Girl at Sandown and travelled much the best that day; This is a step up in Grade and step up to three miles not sure to suit.
Alverstone: Improved a lot in the jumping department when opening hurdling account over 3m at Chepstow, romping home by 14 lengths; Thrashed by Sparky May next time out and while she was convincing last time out, much more is needed here.
Fit To Drive: Not too hard to dismiss although she’s a pretty useful chaser.
Gold Reef: Has improved for the better form (like many) of her stable this year, landing a good handicap first time out before showing well in defeat last time; This much tougher task.
L’Accordioniste: Unbeaten in four starts under rules and landed a very tough handicap hurdle last time out, having come from miles back in home straight; Will get much further, maturing fast, and major player here.
Seren Cwmtudu: Showed willing attitude upped in trip last time at Taunton but previous form doesn’t give her chance.
Sparky May: Has won all three of her starts over timber, despite having left her legs trailing on more than one occasion; 27 length trashing of Alverstone is seriously impressive and has claims here if three miles is up her street.
VERDICT: The seriously progressive L’Accordioniste should have a lot more to give over this trip but in CAROLE’S LEGACY she’ll have a serious rival to handle and Nicky Henderson’s mare has outstanding claims.
stanjames.com Champion Hurdle Trial 2011
2.05 Haydock
stanjames.com Champion Hurdle Trial (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £28,505
Peddlers Cross: Changed hands for £100,000 after winning an Irish point at Liscaroll and has maintained peerless 100% record with wins in bumper at Haydock, novice hurdle at Bangor, Grade 2 at Haydock, Neptune investments Hurdle and Mersey Novice’s Hurdle last year; Put up best performance yet when beating Starluck and Binocular to win the Fighting Fifth at Newbury and looks set to take this going onto a big run in the Champion.
Walkon: Was one of top juvenile hurdlers before injury struck two years ago, winning 4 times in 6 starts, including a 13 lengths romp in the Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree after Triumph Hurdle second; Going to need the run badly after 660 days off but fascinating to see him return.
Washington Irving: Looked set for a good future over hurdles when pasting up by 15 lengths on his first start; The trip was much too far next time out in soft ground and much the same story on his third run; Not up to Graded class at Aintree and disappointed first time out.
Ruthenoise: Looks up against it here; Overmatched.
VERDICT: It’s great to see the return of Walkon after the best part of two years but barring accidents this should prove a formality for PEDDLERS CROSS, who looks set for a big run in the Champion Hurdle.
stanjames.com Champion Hurdle Trial (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £28,505
Peddlers Cross: Changed hands for £100,000 after winning an Irish point at Liscaroll and has maintained peerless 100% record with wins in bumper at Haydock, novice hurdle at Bangor, Grade 2 at Haydock, Neptune investments Hurdle and Mersey Novice’s Hurdle last year; Put up best performance yet when beating Starluck and Binocular to win the Fighting Fifth at Newbury and looks set to take this going onto a big run in the Champion.
Walkon: Was one of top juvenile hurdlers before injury struck two years ago, winning 4 times in 6 starts, including a 13 lengths romp in the Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree after Triumph Hurdle second; Going to need the run badly after 660 days off but fascinating to see him return.
Washington Irving: Looked set for a good future over hurdles when pasting up by 15 lengths on his first start; The trip was much too far next time out in soft ground and much the same story on his third run; Not up to Graded class at Aintree and disappointed first time out.
Ruthenoise: Looks up against it here; Overmatched.
VERDICT: It’s great to see the return of Walkon after the best part of two years but barring accidents this should prove a formality for PEDDLERS CROSS, who looks set for a big run in the Champion Hurdle.
Bet With Your Mobile At victorchandler.com Holloway's Hurdle (Grade 2 Limited Handicap)
2.55 Ascot
Bet With Your Mobile At victorchandler.com Holloway's Hurdle (Grade 2 Limited Handicap) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £22,804
Picks: Soldatino (win) & Lough Derg (each/way)
Lough Derg: Not been at best for a long time (last placed effort before his previous run at Newbury a year ago, in this very race); Well in off that and Long Walk Hurdle second last time out, and maybe worth giving a chance.
Walkon: Was one of top juvenile hurdlers before injury struck two years ago, winning 4 times in 6 starts, including a 13 lengths romp in the Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree after Triumph Hurdle second; Going to need the run badly after 660 days off but fascinating to see him return.
Soldatino: Unbeaten in three starts over hurdles and won the Adoins and then Triumph Hurdle on his first two starts for Henderson yard; Looked sure to get further than that and should be running massive race on all known form.
Bygones Of Brid: Impressed as a novice hurdler in Scotland, relishing soft ground conditions when slamming Softly Spoken Guy by 9 lengths in Grade 2 at Kelso; Posted good effort in rescheduled Fighting Fifth but looked well below best when sixth here on Kempton’s AW track; Bad fall at same venue last time and can’t be backed with confidence.
Notus De La Tour: Made a good start to racing in Britain, bolting up at Plumpton in small race (beat useful sort into second) before being slammed in the Fred Winter by Sanctuaire; Not at best at Aintree but that can be forgiven and should go well for yard that has good record in this.
Shalone: Only beaten by Diamond Harry in first five starts over hurdles and in bumpers, and managed to beat the useful Tataniano as well; Aggravated injury when third in Reelkeel Hurdle last year and back to drawing board in fitness sense.
Frascati Park: Reliable front runner who holds plenty of graded form and has been back to something like his best when winning his last 2 starts, one here and the other at Leicester; Great racing weight here and has a decent chance.
Warne’s Way: Inconsistent but has won two of his last three, the last one by 14 lengths; Worrying that he was beaten in the best race of the three, although another headgear change and softer ground will help him.
Sophies Trophy: Was fit from Flat when bouncing back to form to beat awkward Numide at Leicester in November; Has a lot more on his plate here but young rider well worth claim and can’t be ruled out in race this open.
Sophie’s Trophy: Gave first solid effort since winning brace of Novice Hurdles in March when coming a well beaten second behind Mille Chief (received over a stone); Shouldn’t be ruled out rashly and will stay this trip.
Advisor: Was sent off only 8/1 for the Triumph Hurdle off the back of 2 very impressive wins in juvenile hurdles; Disappointed in that test (too tough for him) and on last start (Had been on the go, flat and jumps); Hasn’t recovered form since and needs leap of faith to be backing him here.
Tiger O’Toole: Won three times last season and was largely progressive until summer; Has had stiff tasks set on his last three starts though, shapes like he’ll stay and possibly on workable mark.
Sire Collonges: Extremely impressive when winning his first and only start and Auteuil by 5 lengths for Guy Cherel in April; Inexperience must be a concern, and the form of that race hasn’t been amazing since, but should be respected off a low weight nevertheless.
Lucaindubai: Largely progressive before November blowout at Cheltenham all to register hurdle wins at Newton Abbot and Ffos Las earlier in summer; Has work to do off this mark.
VERDICT: It’s surprising to see the Triumph winner SOLDATINO here but wherever he wants to be going he should be running a big race in this off 148. LOUGH DERG may be able to get his run of the race at an each/way price.
Bet With Your Mobile At victorchandler.com Holloway's Hurdle (Grade 2 Limited Handicap) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £22,804
Picks: Soldatino (win) & Lough Derg (each/way)
Lough Derg: Not been at best for a long time (last placed effort before his previous run at Newbury a year ago, in this very race); Well in off that and Long Walk Hurdle second last time out, and maybe worth giving a chance.
Walkon: Was one of top juvenile hurdlers before injury struck two years ago, winning 4 times in 6 starts, including a 13 lengths romp in the Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree after Triumph Hurdle second; Going to need the run badly after 660 days off but fascinating to see him return.
Soldatino: Unbeaten in three starts over hurdles and won the Adoins and then Triumph Hurdle on his first two starts for Henderson yard; Looked sure to get further than that and should be running massive race on all known form.
Bygones Of Brid: Impressed as a novice hurdler in Scotland, relishing soft ground conditions when slamming Softly Spoken Guy by 9 lengths in Grade 2 at Kelso; Posted good effort in rescheduled Fighting Fifth but looked well below best when sixth here on Kempton’s AW track; Bad fall at same venue last time and can’t be backed with confidence.
Notus De La Tour: Made a good start to racing in Britain, bolting up at Plumpton in small race (beat useful sort into second) before being slammed in the Fred Winter by Sanctuaire; Not at best at Aintree but that can be forgiven and should go well for yard that has good record in this.
Shalone: Only beaten by Diamond Harry in first five starts over hurdles and in bumpers, and managed to beat the useful Tataniano as well; Aggravated injury when third in Reelkeel Hurdle last year and back to drawing board in fitness sense.
Frascati Park: Reliable front runner who holds plenty of graded form and has been back to something like his best when winning his last 2 starts, one here and the other at Leicester; Great racing weight here and has a decent chance.
Warne’s Way: Inconsistent but has won two of his last three, the last one by 14 lengths; Worrying that he was beaten in the best race of the three, although another headgear change and softer ground will help him.
Sophies Trophy: Was fit from Flat when bouncing back to form to beat awkward Numide at Leicester in November; Has a lot more on his plate here but young rider well worth claim and can’t be ruled out in race this open.
Sophie’s Trophy: Gave first solid effort since winning brace of Novice Hurdles in March when coming a well beaten second behind Mille Chief (received over a stone); Shouldn’t be ruled out rashly and will stay this trip.
Advisor: Was sent off only 8/1 for the Triumph Hurdle off the back of 2 very impressive wins in juvenile hurdles; Disappointed in that test (too tough for him) and on last start (Had been on the go, flat and jumps); Hasn’t recovered form since and needs leap of faith to be backing him here.
Tiger O’Toole: Won three times last season and was largely progressive until summer; Has had stiff tasks set on his last three starts though, shapes like he’ll stay and possibly on workable mark.
Sire Collonges: Extremely impressive when winning his first and only start and Auteuil by 5 lengths for Guy Cherel in April; Inexperience must be a concern, and the form of that race hasn’t been amazing since, but should be respected off a low weight nevertheless.
Lucaindubai: Largely progressive before November blowout at Cheltenham all to register hurdle wins at Newton Abbot and Ffos Las earlier in summer; Has work to do off this mark.
VERDICT: It’s surprising to see the Triumph winner SOLDATINO here but wherever he wants to be going he should be running a big race in this off 148. LOUGH DERG may be able to get his run of the race at an each/way price.
Peter Marsh Chase (Grade 2 Limited Handicap)
3.15 Haydock
Peter Marsh Chase (Grade 2 Limited Handicap) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £28,505
Picks: Becuaseicoudln’tsee & Take The Breeze (each/way)
Take The Breeze: Done well since coming over from France and made really good start to life over fences, winning twice at Exeter and once at Newbury (again made all); Limitations seemingly exposed in Grade 1 Irish Arkle and Jewson Novices Handicap at the festival but ran very well in Mildmay at Aintree and excellent reappearance run gives him a major chance of defying a 6lbs rise here.
Sa Suffit: Prominent racer who is at his best on testing ground (so easy to forgive blowout on Grand National Day last season); Totally unexposed at this trip, yard amongst the winners and goes well fresh so given consideration.
Madison Du Berlais: Was an absolute revelation 2 seasons ago when winning this very race (off a 12lbs higher mark the Levy Board Chase (beat Denman by 23 lengths ) and Totesport Bowl; Hasn’t been in the same form since due to a mark of 169 but ran creditably on most occasions since barring a poor run in the King George; Has every chance here if he’s over those exertions but doubts about his ability to run to his chasing mark.
Becuaseicouldntsee: Progressive stayer who was runner-up in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham over four miles last season and ran yet another big race when second in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas; Every chance of going one better here in similar event.
King Fontaine: Made it four out of seven over fences with latest C&D success over reopposing Maktu (who did the form no harm with a creditable run in the Welsh National); Can take a chance at some fences, but on a massive upward curve and should go close here.
Dream Alliance: One of fairy-tale stories of last season when winning the Welsh Grand National after long lay-off (had stem cell treatment); Unable to progress from that after rise in weight however, and been pulled up on all starts since.
Atouchbetweenacara: ran better than the bare facts suggest in the face of a stiff task latest but Simply hasn’t fulfilled promise he showed when winning Grade 2 limited handicap and not appealing here.
Frankie Figg: Last win came over this track when romping home by 8 lengths off 6lbs lower mark; Was in process of running huge race (booked for place at least) when unseating in Topham 2 from home and put that right when winning the Grand Sefton by 5 lengths last time out; Not handicapped out of things by any stretch here.
Maktu: Progressive sort who failed to last home having been too keen when sent off favourite for the Welsh National, having jumped well in the main; Has a 16lb swing in the weights with King Fontaine for a head defeat in November and holds a serious chance here.
Buffalo Bob: Progressive chaser who ran well at Cheltenham last time until seemingly failing for stamina over extended 3m2f at Cheltenham last time; Slight drop back should suit but stiff mark and lot to prove now.
Palypso De Creek: Runner-up from a 4lb higher mark last year and although he hasn’t run anywhere near that since, he’s had excuses for all of those defeats; Well weighted for a big run but that no guarantee that he’ll be back to best.
Khachaturian: Has a lot going for him in the fact that his yard have won two of the last four renewals of this race, he’s got the benefit of a recent pipe-opener in a fibresand bumper under his belt, is only 2lbs higher than his last winning mark and he goes on all ground; Maybe not room for error from his current mark but taken seriously nonetheless.
Major Malarkey: Stays well, comes from an in from yard and can improve, but does look held by Buffalo Bob on their running at Bangor in November and can make mistakes; Has a tough task here and while he can’t be discounted, looks up against it.
VERDICT: BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE jumps well, gets further than this, handles all ground and was an excellent second in the Paddy Power Chase last time. TAKE THE BREEZE was an excellent second at Ascot last time, has been treated fairly since by the handicapper, handles most ground and could go very close here. King Fontaine is seriously progressive but he’ll have it hard to stop Maktu from reversing the form off 16lbs better terms. If he’s able to run to his best, then there’s nothing to stop Madison Du Berlais making a mockery of overinflated odds.
Peter Marsh Chase (Grade 2 Limited Handicap) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £28,505
Picks: Becuaseicoudln’tsee & Take The Breeze (each/way)
Take The Breeze: Done well since coming over from France and made really good start to life over fences, winning twice at Exeter and once at Newbury (again made all); Limitations seemingly exposed in Grade 1 Irish Arkle and Jewson Novices Handicap at the festival but ran very well in Mildmay at Aintree and excellent reappearance run gives him a major chance of defying a 6lbs rise here.
Sa Suffit: Prominent racer who is at his best on testing ground (so easy to forgive blowout on Grand National Day last season); Totally unexposed at this trip, yard amongst the winners and goes well fresh so given consideration.
Madison Du Berlais: Was an absolute revelation 2 seasons ago when winning this very race (off a 12lbs higher mark the Levy Board Chase (beat Denman by 23 lengths ) and Totesport Bowl; Hasn’t been in the same form since due to a mark of 169 but ran creditably on most occasions since barring a poor run in the King George; Has every chance here if he’s over those exertions but doubts about his ability to run to his chasing mark.
Becuaseicouldntsee: Progressive stayer who was runner-up in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham over four miles last season and ran yet another big race when second in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas; Every chance of going one better here in similar event.
King Fontaine: Made it four out of seven over fences with latest C&D success over reopposing Maktu (who did the form no harm with a creditable run in the Welsh National); Can take a chance at some fences, but on a massive upward curve and should go close here.
Dream Alliance: One of fairy-tale stories of last season when winning the Welsh Grand National after long lay-off (had stem cell treatment); Unable to progress from that after rise in weight however, and been pulled up on all starts since.
Atouchbetweenacara: ran better than the bare facts suggest in the face of a stiff task latest but Simply hasn’t fulfilled promise he showed when winning Grade 2 limited handicap and not appealing here.
Frankie Figg: Last win came over this track when romping home by 8 lengths off 6lbs lower mark; Was in process of running huge race (booked for place at least) when unseating in Topham 2 from home and put that right when winning the Grand Sefton by 5 lengths last time out; Not handicapped out of things by any stretch here.
Maktu: Progressive sort who failed to last home having been too keen when sent off favourite for the Welsh National, having jumped well in the main; Has a 16lb swing in the weights with King Fontaine for a head defeat in November and holds a serious chance here.
Buffalo Bob: Progressive chaser who ran well at Cheltenham last time until seemingly failing for stamina over extended 3m2f at Cheltenham last time; Slight drop back should suit but stiff mark and lot to prove now.
Palypso De Creek: Runner-up from a 4lb higher mark last year and although he hasn’t run anywhere near that since, he’s had excuses for all of those defeats; Well weighted for a big run but that no guarantee that he’ll be back to best.
Khachaturian: Has a lot going for him in the fact that his yard have won two of the last four renewals of this race, he’s got the benefit of a recent pipe-opener in a fibresand bumper under his belt, is only 2lbs higher than his last winning mark and he goes on all ground; Maybe not room for error from his current mark but taken seriously nonetheless.
Major Malarkey: Stays well, comes from an in from yard and can improve, but does look held by Buffalo Bob on their running at Bangor in November and can make mistakes; Has a tough task here and while he can’t be discounted, looks up against it.
VERDICT: BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE jumps well, gets further than this, handles all ground and was an excellent second in the Paddy Power Chase last time. TAKE THE BREEZE was an excellent second at Ascot last time, has been treated fairly since by the handicapper, handles most ground and could go very close here. King Fontaine is seriously progressive but he’ll have it hard to stop Maktu from reversing the form off 16lbs better terms. If he’s able to run to his best, then there’s nothing to stop Madison Du Berlais making a mockery of overinflated odds.
Liverpool Echo Novices' Chase (Registered As The Altcar Novices' Chase)
2.40 Haydock
Liverpool Echo Novices' Chase (Registered As The Altcar Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £13,340
Pick: Wymott (win)
Wishfull Thinking: 3-time winning hurdler (unlucky to fall when holding serious claims in Coral Cup at the festival) who has who has quickly recovered from a fall on his chase debut to win Grade 2 at Wincanton and finish second to Reve de Sivola at Cheltenham (poor trip; hampered); Every chance here but giving away 4lbs and upwards will not help his chances.
Cape Tribulation: Arguably the best of these over hurdles with a fourth in the Christmas Hurdle and second in the Reelkeel; Made a made promising start to chase career with success at Hexham but ran badly upped in class last time.
Robinson Collonges: Hacked up at Bangor in debut before unlucky fall behind Whishfull Thinking in Grade 2; Easy win again at Hereford before a bad mistake 3 out ruined his chances in the December Gold Cup; Not given hard time afterwards and big chance here.
The Giant Bolster: Proved an absolute revelation when sixth in the Neptune and was crying out for the longer trip on that evidence; Made excellent start to fencing when winning by 11 lengths and was still well there when falling in good race Cheltenham last time; Overpriced.
Wymott: Grade 2 winner over hurdles last season (with a Grade 1 winner behind in Wayward Prince) who has made perfect start to fencing this year, beating useful field with ease at Bangor and then being able to give a stone in weight to next time out winner Shalimar Fromentro and subsequent winner Adams Island in third; Gets weight all round and should be tough to beat.
VERDICT: A smart renewal of a very useful race. Robinson Collonges ran a big race in the December Gold Cup and should be happier in this small field, while Whishfull Thinking is a useful horse too, but they’ll have a hard task giving weight to WYMOTT, who impressed with his jumping and attitude when giving about a stone to two subsequent winners at Exeter last time. The Giant Bolster may be overpriced based on his two chase starts so far.
Liverpool Echo Novices' Chase (Registered As The Altcar Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £13,340
Pick: Wymott (win)
Wishfull Thinking: 3-time winning hurdler (unlucky to fall when holding serious claims in Coral Cup at the festival) who has who has quickly recovered from a fall on his chase debut to win Grade 2 at Wincanton and finish second to Reve de Sivola at Cheltenham (poor trip; hampered); Every chance here but giving away 4lbs and upwards will not help his chances.
Cape Tribulation: Arguably the best of these over hurdles with a fourth in the Christmas Hurdle and second in the Reelkeel; Made a made promising start to chase career with success at Hexham but ran badly upped in class last time.
Robinson Collonges: Hacked up at Bangor in debut before unlucky fall behind Whishfull Thinking in Grade 2; Easy win again at Hereford before a bad mistake 3 out ruined his chances in the December Gold Cup; Not given hard time afterwards and big chance here.
The Giant Bolster: Proved an absolute revelation when sixth in the Neptune and was crying out for the longer trip on that evidence; Made excellent start to fencing when winning by 11 lengths and was still well there when falling in good race Cheltenham last time; Overpriced.
Wymott: Grade 2 winner over hurdles last season (with a Grade 1 winner behind in Wayward Prince) who has made perfect start to fencing this year, beating useful field with ease at Bangor and then being able to give a stone in weight to next time out winner Shalimar Fromentro and subsequent winner Adams Island in third; Gets weight all round and should be tough to beat.
VERDICT: A smart renewal of a very useful race. Robinson Collonges ran a big race in the December Gold Cup and should be happier in this small field, while Whishfull Thinking is a useful horse too, but they’ll have a hard task giving weight to WYMOTT, who impressed with his jumping and attitude when giving about a stone to two subsequent winners at Exeter last time. The Giant Bolster may be overpriced based on his two chase starts so far.
Thursday, 20 January 2011
Dubai Racing Carnival - Week 2
2.35 - WARSAW went off too fast on a surface he didn't really enjoy last time and should run a whole lot better here at least. While Aamaaq should appreciate the drop back in distance having been headed close home over a mile recently. Swinging Sixties and Golden Desert are also of interest.
Advice: 1 pt each/way Warsaw
3.15 - Effort would be the pick but for poor course form (only unloved effort in six starts was here) so WAR ARTIST gets the vote, having landed a Group 3 on his first run back last year. Godolphin's USA import Everyday Heroes has never raced over the minimum trip, which is a negative here.
Advice: 1 pt each/way War Artist
3.50 - A weaker race than the fillies equivalent shown last week. Mike De Kock and Godolphin have dominated this in the past and are very powerfully represented again. ZANZAMAR should be involved on the back of a progressive campaign in South Africa that saw him compete at the highest level, while JANOOD will like the better surface he should get here and is a serious player on that basis. There are many others that could get involved but these two should be involved at the finish.
Advice: 2 pts win Zanzamar
4.25 - It's too hard to pick between one time classic hope KINGSFORT and Grade 1 winner HERE TO WIN. The tissue says that 6/1's going to be offered for Kingsfort, although its likely that he'll be favourite at the start.
Advice: 1 pt each/way&/or win Kingsfort (6/1 or above for each/way), 1 pt each/way&/or win Here To Win (6/1 or above for each/way)
5.10 - KING OF ROME should strip fotter for last week's run, will appreciate this step back up in trip and will find it easier than the Maktoum Challenge he contested last week. GALLAHAD looks like one of the most promising South American imports for Alain De Royer Dupre this year; A big run could be coming off this weight.
Advice: 1 pt each/way King Of Rome and Gallahad
5.45 - A race I'm not so keen on. Deem has to be fancied based on what she achieved at last year's Carnival but this trip might not play to her strengths. Aspectoflove will be primed for a big run but she's betable on all form and RIVER JETEZ can push them close.
Advice: 1 pt win River Jetez
It's like that Azmeel will show us how strong the Gosden Challenge is for this year's festival, while I've got a lot of time for Zeitoper but I'm all over SIMON DE MONTFORT who was a smart prospect when winning twice as a juvenile and built on his Criterium De Saint Cloud failure when winning a listed and Group 3 contest last year in France.
Advice: 2 pts win Simon De Montfort
Advice: 1 pt each/way Warsaw
3.15 - Effort would be the pick but for poor course form (only unloved effort in six starts was here) so WAR ARTIST gets the vote, having landed a Group 3 on his first run back last year. Godolphin's USA import Everyday Heroes has never raced over the minimum trip, which is a negative here.
Advice: 1 pt each/way War Artist
3.50 - A weaker race than the fillies equivalent shown last week. Mike De Kock and Godolphin have dominated this in the past and are very powerfully represented again. ZANZAMAR should be involved on the back of a progressive campaign in South Africa that saw him compete at the highest level, while JANOOD will like the better surface he should get here and is a serious player on that basis. There are many others that could get involved but these two should be involved at the finish.
Advice: 2 pts win Zanzamar
4.25 - It's too hard to pick between one time classic hope KINGSFORT and Grade 1 winner HERE TO WIN. The tissue says that 6/1's going to be offered for Kingsfort, although its likely that he'll be favourite at the start.
Advice: 1 pt each/way&/or win Kingsfort (6/1 or above for each/way), 1 pt each/way&/or win Here To Win (6/1 or above for each/way)
5.10 - KING OF ROME should strip fotter for last week's run, will appreciate this step back up in trip and will find it easier than the Maktoum Challenge he contested last week. GALLAHAD looks like one of the most promising South American imports for Alain De Royer Dupre this year; A big run could be coming off this weight.
Advice: 1 pt each/way King Of Rome and Gallahad
5.45 - A race I'm not so keen on. Deem has to be fancied based on what she achieved at last year's Carnival but this trip might not play to her strengths. Aspectoflove will be primed for a big run but she's betable on all form and RIVER JETEZ can push them close.
Advice: 1 pt win River Jetez
It's like that Azmeel will show us how strong the Gosden Challenge is for this year's festival, while I've got a lot of time for Zeitoper but I'm all over SIMON DE MONTFORT who was a smart prospect when winning twice as a juvenile and built on his Criterium De Saint Cloud failure when winning a listed and Group 3 contest last year in France.
Advice: 2 pts win Simon De Montfort
Saturday, 15 January 2011
Tote Classic Chase 2010
It’s not a race I really like, the Classic Chase (3.20) – But I’m going for everything today and two have caught the eye, and both are each/way chances.
WEST END ROCKER was impressive when grinding things out from the front and winning well over a long trip at Newbury on his last start. The handicapper has raised him 4lb but that looks fair as the form has since been boosted by the third, Nicto De Beauchene, winning a handicap chase by 16 lengths at Sandown subsequently. He should go close if staying.
I’ve only bothered picking INCETIVISE because he’s won four out of his last 6, goes through heavy ground and his last win was over 3m6f, so we can count on him staying all day at least.
Recommendation
3.20 Warwick
1 pt each/way West End Rocker & Incentivise
WEST END ROCKER was impressive when grinding things out from the front and winning well over a long trip at Newbury on his last start. The handicapper has raised him 4lb but that looks fair as the form has since been boosted by the third, Nicto De Beauchene, winning a handicap chase by 16 lengths at Sandown subsequently. He should go close if staying.
I’ve only bothered picking INCETIVISE because he’s won four out of his last 6, goes through heavy ground and his last win was over 3m6f, so we can count on him staying all day at least.
Recommendation
3.20 Warwick
1 pt each/way West End Rocker & Incentivise
Neptune Investment Management Leamington Novices' Hurdle
2.45 Warwick
Neptune Investment Management Leamington Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £14,252
Pick: Mossley (win)
Court In Motion: Always been highly regarded by his connections and has started building on all that promise and more with win at Exeter and second in Challow Hurdle last time; Goes on heavy ground and that may give him key edge.
Mossley: Hasn’t come off bridle to land Worcester bumper and 2m4f novice hurdle at Huntingdon, and it looked set to be the same sort until he showed impressive attitude when taking 3m Grade 2 novice at Cheltenham last month; Encounters different ground here (raced only on good/good to firm under rules) but was running big race when falling at last in Ireland on heavy ground and big chance here today.
Jetnova: Has gotten better with experience, landing 2 novice hurdles at Plumpton (latest one very good race for the track) and worth his chance here; Has to improve again on that but ever chance for trainer in real form.
Lamb’s Cross: Has been largely overlooked considering that he made impressive start over hurdles when winning Worcester maiden hurdle by 10 lengths; Untested on this ground and looks stable second string, but don’t be surprised to see a big run from him.
Moon Indigo: Wasn’t disgraced trying to give away a big penalty to useful hurdler Lethal Glaze last time, who went on to run a big race in decent hurdle at Cheltenham next time out; Yard won this in 2004/2005 and not ruled out.
Safran De Cotte: Unbeaten in 2 bumpers (impressive in testing conditions at Haydock) and made perfect start over hurdles in 17f Bangor novice event; Well beaten in hot Cheltenham race last time and while he remains with potential he’s unappealing.
Maxdelas: Made an extremely impressive debut when winning at Uttoexter, travelling well in heavy ground and putting more than the official winning margin of three lengths between his pursuers between the last 2 hurdles (eased down); Same ground conditions today and can be expected to go well.
Neptune Equester: Completed hat-trick over fences in 2010 and remains with potential over hurdles after encouraging run at Catterick but well beaten last time and has a lot of ground to make up in any case.
VERDICT: A good renewal which has 2 proven performers and plenty of useful ones waiting in the wings. Court In Motion is proven on heavy ground and is the pick on his Challow second last month but MOSSLEY impressed hugely when winning a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time and won’t be found wanting for a battle today. There’s a worry about the ground but on his only point run in Ireland he seemed to handle it fine. Maxedlas is the preferred of the rest, getting 7lbs from the big 2 at the head of the market.
Neptune Investment Management Leamington Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £14,252
Pick: Mossley (win)
Court In Motion: Always been highly regarded by his connections and has started building on all that promise and more with win at Exeter and second in Challow Hurdle last time; Goes on heavy ground and that may give him key edge.
Mossley: Hasn’t come off bridle to land Worcester bumper and 2m4f novice hurdle at Huntingdon, and it looked set to be the same sort until he showed impressive attitude when taking 3m Grade 2 novice at Cheltenham last month; Encounters different ground here (raced only on good/good to firm under rules) but was running big race when falling at last in Ireland on heavy ground and big chance here today.
Jetnova: Has gotten better with experience, landing 2 novice hurdles at Plumpton (latest one very good race for the track) and worth his chance here; Has to improve again on that but ever chance for trainer in real form.
Lamb’s Cross: Has been largely overlooked considering that he made impressive start over hurdles when winning Worcester maiden hurdle by 10 lengths; Untested on this ground and looks stable second string, but don’t be surprised to see a big run from him.
Moon Indigo: Wasn’t disgraced trying to give away a big penalty to useful hurdler Lethal Glaze last time, who went on to run a big race in decent hurdle at Cheltenham next time out; Yard won this in 2004/2005 and not ruled out.
Safran De Cotte: Unbeaten in 2 bumpers (impressive in testing conditions at Haydock) and made perfect start over hurdles in 17f Bangor novice event; Well beaten in hot Cheltenham race last time and while he remains with potential he’s unappealing.
Maxdelas: Made an extremely impressive debut when winning at Uttoexter, travelling well in heavy ground and putting more than the official winning margin of three lengths between his pursuers between the last 2 hurdles (eased down); Same ground conditions today and can be expected to go well.
Neptune Equester: Completed hat-trick over fences in 2010 and remains with potential over hurdles after encouraging run at Catterick but well beaten last time and has a lot of ground to make up in any case.
VERDICT: A good renewal which has 2 proven performers and plenty of useful ones waiting in the wings. Court In Motion is proven on heavy ground and is the pick on his Challow second last month but MOSSLEY impressed hugely when winning a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time and won’t be found wanting for a battle today. There’s a worry about the ground but on his only point run in Ireland he seemed to handle it fine. Maxedlas is the preferred of the rest, getting 7lbs from the big 2 at the head of the market.
Kempton Supporting Races - 15th Jan
Juvenile Hurdle (11.50) - Finally, the talk can be settled regarding Brampour. He should go really close here; As far as i'm concerned, he has to and will run big. A MEDIA LUZ settled a lot better at Newbury last time than on her debut at Cheltenham and did well to get within five lengths of stablemate Grandouet, runner-up in a Grade 2 on his previous start. The third won by 10 lengths at Catterick on Thursday so the form looks solid. Kazzene should also go well, while the market needs a check regarding him a big show's no surprise to see.
Novices Chase (12.20) - I think that the weight concession will essentially give the race to NADIYA DE LA VEGA here, with a good run from Pepe Simo expected if his jumping holds up. DEE EE WILLIAMS is also a good each/way shout if he puts in a clear round; There are three places on offer and I don't believe that a lot separates him and Pepe Simo.
Novices Hurdle (12.50) - I'm not so sure about the form of SYBARITE'S second in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time but that still gives him a big chance and he'll be better for the experience. I don't think that the track should be a problem. Irish point-to-point winner Chablais will go well first time under Rules and gives the Henderson-Geraghty partnership another strong chance, while The Reformer is a perfect type for this type of race having won despite needing more time at Exeter. A 6lbs penalty might well do for him though. Made In Time is a horse who I have time for but I can't be backing him after that run last time.
Handicap Hurdle (12.55) - A good race but not a cracking betting opportunity.A little greenness and the trip may have found SKINT out over 2m 5f at Plumpton last month and prevented him making it three from three. He's the pick to go close in this competitive race, without being exceptionally confident. Ski Sunday's on a very good mark with McCoy booked but I think that the break might catch him out race-fitness wise, for all that his up and coming new yard will be able to get him fit - However, after a good look at his hurdles and flat form I haven't seen him put in his best runs after a break, and he's never won off an extended absence. His career best was actually a second behind Walkon in the Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree and that came after a big effort at Cheltenham. Sampsons Son should have no such problems having run only 70 days ago; He's the main danger as his hurdles form is strong and rates a nice each/way price at 7/1. Via Galilei is one at an each/way price although this will be much more difficult for him than he race he won at Newbury last time.
Recommendations
11.50 Kempton
3 pts win A Media Luz
12.20 Kempton
1 pt each/way Dee Ee Williams
12.50 Kempton
1 pt win Skint
Novices Chase (12.20) - I think that the weight concession will essentially give the race to NADIYA DE LA VEGA here, with a good run from Pepe Simo expected if his jumping holds up. DEE EE WILLIAMS is also a good each/way shout if he puts in a clear round; There are three places on offer and I don't believe that a lot separates him and Pepe Simo.
Novices Hurdle (12.50) - I'm not so sure about the form of SYBARITE'S second in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time but that still gives him a big chance and he'll be better for the experience. I don't think that the track should be a problem. Irish point-to-point winner Chablais will go well first time under Rules and gives the Henderson-Geraghty partnership another strong chance, while The Reformer is a perfect type for this type of race having won despite needing more time at Exeter. A 6lbs penalty might well do for him though. Made In Time is a horse who I have time for but I can't be backing him after that run last time.
Handicap Hurdle (12.55) - A good race but not a cracking betting opportunity.A little greenness and the trip may have found SKINT out over 2m 5f at Plumpton last month and prevented him making it three from three. He's the pick to go close in this competitive race, without being exceptionally confident. Ski Sunday's on a very good mark with McCoy booked but I think that the break might catch him out race-fitness wise, for all that his up and coming new yard will be able to get him fit - However, after a good look at his hurdles and flat form I haven't seen him put in his best runs after a break, and he's never won off an extended absence. His career best was actually a second behind Walkon in the Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree and that came after a big effort at Cheltenham. Sampsons Son should have no such problems having run only 70 days ago; He's the main danger as his hurdles form is strong and rates a nice each/way price at 7/1. Via Galilei is one at an each/way price although this will be much more difficult for him than he race he won at Newbury last time.
Recommendations
11.50 Kempton
3 pts win A Media Luz
12.20 Kempton
1 pt each/way Dee Ee Williams
12.50 Kempton
1 pt win Skint
Friday, 14 January 2011
William Hill - Home Of Betting Handicap Chase
1.55 Kempton
William Hill - Home Of Betting Handicap Chase (Class 3) (5YO plus)
Winner £7,514
Pick: Polyfast (win)
Polyfast: Won at this meeting last year before a winless period which ended last June (when he beat Franchoek by 10 lengths) before a poor run in the Summer at Market Rasen; Won on this card last year after a similar break and should hold strong claims.
Safari Adventures: Career best when winning by 19 lengths at Aintree in the summer and has come back to that sort of form with second in good race at Cheltenham and again at Ayr; Has claims here, especially if allowed to lead untested.
The Snail: Won 6 times up to three miles last time, and proved he goes on soft ground too; Jumped poorly on 2m return at Ffos Las in November, but return to further and a right-handed track will help him do better here.
Bible Lord: Hasn’t been the most solid of jumpers over fences, but he’s dropped down the weights a lot and needs considering and showed big signs he could be ready to strike again when making the frame in blinkers at Towcester and Ffos Las the last twice.
Free World: Very much sort to come into his own as a chaser; Made encouraging return at Cheltenham earlier in season in big race and while he was well beaten last time, this is easier and he’s fit from an AW bumper win; Quicker the ground the better.
Ursis: Battered off mistakes and regression to romp home by 9 lengths when last seen; Stable in some sort of decent form of late and can’t be rules out, although his jumping needs to stay secure.
Drybook Bedouin: Useful hunter chaser for Peter Shaw although he needs a big leap of faith to be backing here after his lacklustre effort when last seen; This harder than usual for him.
JimbataI: Won a novice chase in July over this trip and hasn’t been seen at his best over longer trips since; This not a great race, o if back to best he’s weighted to put in a big run.
It’s Crucial: Sketchy jumper but has decent profile at the least and hasn’t been disgraced on his 2 seconds this season; 10lbs higher than when last winning but wouldn’t rule out off a nice weight.
Cruchain: Has been claimed out of Jonjo O’Neill’s yard and would be well in on past form, but he can’t be trusted having been dropped back to sellers.
VERDICT: The ground might not be as testing as first thought. The ground is more testing than POLYFAST would like but he showed he can go well fresh when making a winning reappearance over C&D last term and comes from a red hot yard. He can see off Free World and The Snail.
William Hill - Home Of Betting Handicap Chase (Class 3) (5YO plus)
Winner £7,514
Pick: Polyfast (win)
Polyfast: Won at this meeting last year before a winless period which ended last June (when he beat Franchoek by 10 lengths) before a poor run in the Summer at Market Rasen; Won on this card last year after a similar break and should hold strong claims.
Safari Adventures: Career best when winning by 19 lengths at Aintree in the summer and has come back to that sort of form with second in good race at Cheltenham and again at Ayr; Has claims here, especially if allowed to lead untested.
The Snail: Won 6 times up to three miles last time, and proved he goes on soft ground too; Jumped poorly on 2m return at Ffos Las in November, but return to further and a right-handed track will help him do better here.
Bible Lord: Hasn’t been the most solid of jumpers over fences, but he’s dropped down the weights a lot and needs considering and showed big signs he could be ready to strike again when making the frame in blinkers at Towcester and Ffos Las the last twice.
Free World: Very much sort to come into his own as a chaser; Made encouraging return at Cheltenham earlier in season in big race and while he was well beaten last time, this is easier and he’s fit from an AW bumper win; Quicker the ground the better.
Ursis: Battered off mistakes and regression to romp home by 9 lengths when last seen; Stable in some sort of decent form of late and can’t be rules out, although his jumping needs to stay secure.
Drybook Bedouin: Useful hunter chaser for Peter Shaw although he needs a big leap of faith to be backing here after his lacklustre effort when last seen; This harder than usual for him.
JimbataI: Won a novice chase in July over this trip and hasn’t been seen at his best over longer trips since; This not a great race, o if back to best he’s weighted to put in a big run.
It’s Crucial: Sketchy jumper but has decent profile at the least and hasn’t been disgraced on his 2 seconds this season; 10lbs higher than when last winning but wouldn’t rule out off a nice weight.
Cruchain: Has been claimed out of Jonjo O’Neill’s yard and would be well in on past form, but he can’t be trusted having been dropped back to sellers.
VERDICT: The ground might not be as testing as first thought. The ground is more testing than POLYFAST would like but he showed he can go well fresh when making a winning reappearance over C&D last term and comes from a red hot yard. He can see off Free World and The Snail.
williamhill.com Lanzarote Hurdle 2011
3.35 Kempton
williamhill.com Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £28,179
Picks: James De Vassy & The Betchowrk Kid (each/way)
Organisetur: Has a solid record of 4 hurdles wins out of 7 starts (never been worse than 4th), although all 4 of those have been at Taunton; Posted a very good effort when second to Dynaste last time and although he’s up 7lbs for that, he can take a hand here.
Quarts De Thaix: Improved with every run last season, impressive when beating Pontop by 5 and then 4 lengths at Cheltenham and Perth, handling an 8lbs rise inbetween; Improved again to win at Aintree (very strong effort to win comfortably); Had too much to do up in grade last time and every chance here.
James De Vassy: Had an excellent season last year, winning a limited handicap with ease and finishing in the frame in both the Greatwood and Coral Cup at Cheltenham; Only 1lb higher in weights now and should be happier back at this trip with a run under his belt, and rates a major player.
Bygones Of Brid: Impressed as a novice hurdler in Scotland, relishing soft ground conditions when slamming Softly Spoken Guy by 9 lengths in Grade 2 at Kelso; Posted good effort in rescheduled Fighting Fifth but looked well below best when sixth here on the AW track last time; Big chance is back to best off ideal racing weight.
Raslan: Front runner who can make them all go on his best form but he’s mood dependent and this doesn’t look ideal for him.
Hills Of Aran: Looked useful over fences (won both starts over fences in 2009/10, and looks to have retained most of his ability judged on last 2 hurdles runs (well beaten twice over fences since) and has a lot to do to be winning here.
Songe: Went badly wrong over hurdles last season, although he seems to have retained ability judging on 2 excellent chase wins the last twice; Has the albity to make an impact but not sure how he’ll do over hurdles.
Buena Vista: Showed himself as good as ever when winning Pertemps Final last March; That race again the target, but interesting to see Connor O’Farell on board (won on Dyanste at Taunton)
Barwell Bridge: Good juvenile who ended last season with an excellent fifth in the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival and has done well this season too, runner-up in competitive handicaps at Haydock and Cheltenham; Gets further than this and if ground goes his way, big player.
First Point: Won three out of last seven starts and was rated 133 when winning over hurdles recently this summer, so form over fences gives him a chance; 6th in Tote Trophy gives him a good chance and he could go closer than odds suggest.
The Betchworth Kid: Very smart on the flat, running up to a mark of 104 and made a pleasing hurdles debut when grinding out a Plumpton novice Hurdle; Went on from that and was staying on powerfully at Newbury last time; Rates a main contender for an inform yard.
Plaomar: Has really got his act together since joining current yard, winning a big handicap hurdle at Market Rasen in the summer last year; This is much harder on different ground, and while he;s in from, he’s got a lot on.
Al Co: Has run well on two of his last three starts, although both of those were in the summer; Was a Uttoxeter winner in April off 5 lb lower mark and ran with credit at Haydock next time, although his return was very poor and hard to know how he’ll do.
Like Minded: Aintree bumper fourth who landed the odds with ease on his hurdles bow before running a blinder behind Manyriverstocross on his next start; Has the ability to run a massive race (not beyond this yard) if straight on return, so seriously considered.
Racing Demon: Was top class chaser in his Prime, although that seems a while ago and has shown that he can still run big races in competitive handicap hurdles of late, although he’s vulnerable here.
Dantari: Has become a victim of his own consistency, having won three times; Could still run well off his mark, but seems set to run off 130 forever the way he’s going.
Premier Dane: Useful hurdler in his prime but not the easiest of rides and yet to win in handicap company, for all that he wasn’t beaten far in handicap company at Cheltenham.
Chief Yeoman: Off good mark but often let down by jumping and not reliable over hurdles nowadays.
Drill Sergeant: Very useful flat recruit (Royal Ascot winner; Stayed 2m) who has won 2 of his 4 starts over hurdles, though needed memorable ride from Tony McCoy over C&D for latest win; Was giving 6lbs to Toubab when second behind him, and rates a useful player here for in form yard.
Had plenty in hand when winning 2 novice hurdles and might have found the extra furlong a bit too far on his first handicap hurdle at Cheltenham; Was going well when coming down 3 out last time (brought down) but would be wanting better ground than might turn up.
VERDICT: A stonking renewal in which 10 could be given a decent chance, so check the ground and market especially. Should JAMES DE VASSY run to his best back at trip he likes, he’d hold a serious chance off a mark only 1 lb higher than his third in the Coral Cup. THE BETCHWORTH KID was running a really big race over 2m1f at Newbury last time and should hold a decent chance for an in form yard. The next best for me would be Bygones Of Brid by some way if he could rediscover his best form, while Like Minded especially should be noted along with Organisetur, Quarts De Thaix, Drill Sargent, Barwell Bridge, Palomar and Ackertac.
williamhill.com Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £28,179
Picks: James De Vassy & The Betchowrk Kid (each/way)
Organisetur: Has a solid record of 4 hurdles wins out of 7 starts (never been worse than 4th), although all 4 of those have been at Taunton; Posted a very good effort when second to Dynaste last time and although he’s up 7lbs for that, he can take a hand here.
Quarts De Thaix: Improved with every run last season, impressive when beating Pontop by 5 and then 4 lengths at Cheltenham and Perth, handling an 8lbs rise inbetween; Improved again to win at Aintree (very strong effort to win comfortably); Had too much to do up in grade last time and every chance here.
James De Vassy: Had an excellent season last year, winning a limited handicap with ease and finishing in the frame in both the Greatwood and Coral Cup at Cheltenham; Only 1lb higher in weights now and should be happier back at this trip with a run under his belt, and rates a major player.
Bygones Of Brid: Impressed as a novice hurdler in Scotland, relishing soft ground conditions when slamming Softly Spoken Guy by 9 lengths in Grade 2 at Kelso; Posted good effort in rescheduled Fighting Fifth but looked well below best when sixth here on the AW track last time; Big chance is back to best off ideal racing weight.
Raslan: Front runner who can make them all go on his best form but he’s mood dependent and this doesn’t look ideal for him.
Hills Of Aran: Looked useful over fences (won both starts over fences in 2009/10, and looks to have retained most of his ability judged on last 2 hurdles runs (well beaten twice over fences since) and has a lot to do to be winning here.
Songe: Went badly wrong over hurdles last season, although he seems to have retained ability judging on 2 excellent chase wins the last twice; Has the albity to make an impact but not sure how he’ll do over hurdles.
Buena Vista: Showed himself as good as ever when winning Pertemps Final last March; That race again the target, but interesting to see Connor O’Farell on board (won on Dyanste at Taunton)
Barwell Bridge: Good juvenile who ended last season with an excellent fifth in the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival and has done well this season too, runner-up in competitive handicaps at Haydock and Cheltenham; Gets further than this and if ground goes his way, big player.
First Point: Won three out of last seven starts and was rated 133 when winning over hurdles recently this summer, so form over fences gives him a chance; 6th in Tote Trophy gives him a good chance and he could go closer than odds suggest.
The Betchworth Kid: Very smart on the flat, running up to a mark of 104 and made a pleasing hurdles debut when grinding out a Plumpton novice Hurdle; Went on from that and was staying on powerfully at Newbury last time; Rates a main contender for an inform yard.
Plaomar: Has really got his act together since joining current yard, winning a big handicap hurdle at Market Rasen in the summer last year; This is much harder on different ground, and while he;s in from, he’s got a lot on.
Al Co: Has run well on two of his last three starts, although both of those were in the summer; Was a Uttoxeter winner in April off 5 lb lower mark and ran with credit at Haydock next time, although his return was very poor and hard to know how he’ll do.
Like Minded: Aintree bumper fourth who landed the odds with ease on his hurdles bow before running a blinder behind Manyriverstocross on his next start; Has the ability to run a massive race (not beyond this yard) if straight on return, so seriously considered.
Racing Demon: Was top class chaser in his Prime, although that seems a while ago and has shown that he can still run big races in competitive handicap hurdles of late, although he’s vulnerable here.
Dantari: Has become a victim of his own consistency, having won three times; Could still run well off his mark, but seems set to run off 130 forever the way he’s going.
Premier Dane: Useful hurdler in his prime but not the easiest of rides and yet to win in handicap company, for all that he wasn’t beaten far in handicap company at Cheltenham.
Chief Yeoman: Off good mark but often let down by jumping and not reliable over hurdles nowadays.
Drill Sergeant: Very useful flat recruit (Royal Ascot winner; Stayed 2m) who has won 2 of his 4 starts over hurdles, though needed memorable ride from Tony McCoy over C&D for latest win; Was giving 6lbs to Toubab when second behind him, and rates a useful player here for in form yard.
Had plenty in hand when winning 2 novice hurdles and might have found the extra furlong a bit too far on his first handicap hurdle at Cheltenham; Was going well when coming down 3 out last time (brought down) but would be wanting better ground than might turn up.
VERDICT: A stonking renewal in which 10 could be given a decent chance, so check the ground and market especially. Should JAMES DE VASSY run to his best back at trip he likes, he’d hold a serious chance off a mark only 1 lb higher than his third in the Coral Cup. THE BETCHWORTH KID was running a really big race over 2m1f at Newbury last time and should hold a decent chance for an in form yard. The next best for me would be Bygones Of Brid by some way if he could rediscover his best form, while Like Minded especially should be noted along with Organisetur, Quarts De Thaix, Drill Sargent, Barwell Bridge, Palomar and Ackertac.
Thursday, 13 January 2011
Christmas Hurdle 2011
2.25 Kempton
Williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £51,309
Pick: Binocular (win)
Binocular: Reached his true potential when storming to impressive victory in Champion Hurdle romp last year (rated as the best winner of the Champion Hurdle since Istabraq on BHA ratings), having been below par for a large par of the season, putting in blow par efforts in Fighting Fifth (5th) and this race last year(3rd);Travelled very well considering condition in Fighting Fifth behind Peddlers Cross and Starluck last time, and may well be more forward this season than last, which would make him the one to beat considering how much ground he made up on Go Native between these two races last year (was beaten 7 lengths in Fighting Fifth, 1&3/4 in this last year); Rates as one to beat.
Bocamix: Ran creditably on more than one occasion in face of stiff task, but lost his way towards the end of that campaign and was well held in a handicap on last start; Close second behind Carlito Brigante but hugely flattered with weight concession, so has a lot to do to be involved.
Escort’Men: Brought down on first start and had previously finished fifth in a Listed hurdle at Auteuil; Super impressive when landing Dovecote by 14 lengths on bridle; Race fell in front of him to an extent, having been a strongly run affair on soft ground but he was super impressive that day; Not shown to best light by fast Ground at Aintree, and proved he’s got guts to go with class when landing competitive limited handicap on first start this season (recovered from terrible mistake at last); Interesting contender who still has potential.
Khyber Kim: Proved an absolute revelation last year with wins in the Greatwood and Bula Hurdle before an excellent second in the Champion, topped off with a win in the Aintree Hurdle; One of the standouts in this field and set to run a big race if fit and ready.
Overturn: Made some truly remarkable progress over hurdles and the flat fduring the summer, romping away with the Northumberland Plate, Scottish Champion Hurdle and Galway Hurdle; That doesn’t entitled him to take a hand here but comes from a good yard to do so (same connections of Peddlers Cross) and not to be underestimated on a fair track that’s bound to suit although he still has a lot to do.
Starluck: Went some way towards fulfilling potential showed as a juvenile hurdler last season, winning easily at Cheltenham before coming a close second to Go Native in this last year (flattered); 5th behind Binocular in the Champion last year was an excellent run and he came back just as good when pushing Peddlers Cross all the way in Fighting Fifth; Another big run expected.
VERDICT: A very solid renewal of the Christmas Hurdle which will provide the latest in a long line of insights into what is shaping up to be a fascinating Champion Hurdle picture. Although he was beaten in this race last season after showing below par in the Fighting Fifth BINOCULAR shaped as if much more forward this year than last when third at Newbury behind Starluck, being right there without much forcing right up until the last before flattening out, and he could take all the beating with the improvement likely to come. Despite the reappearance of last year’s Champion Hurdle second Khyber Kim, the one to beat may well be Starluck, with a run under his belt at the track he loves, while this may prove a bit too tough for Escortmen despite his trainer’s excellent record with 4 year olds in big races. In any case, he rates a more tempting prospect than Overturn despite the conditions being set to suit.
Williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £51,309
Pick: Binocular (win)
Binocular: Reached his true potential when storming to impressive victory in Champion Hurdle romp last year (rated as the best winner of the Champion Hurdle since Istabraq on BHA ratings), having been below par for a large par of the season, putting in blow par efforts in Fighting Fifth (5th) and this race last year(3rd);Travelled very well considering condition in Fighting Fifth behind Peddlers Cross and Starluck last time, and may well be more forward this season than last, which would make him the one to beat considering how much ground he made up on Go Native between these two races last year (was beaten 7 lengths in Fighting Fifth, 1&3/4 in this last year); Rates as one to beat.
Bocamix: Ran creditably on more than one occasion in face of stiff task, but lost his way towards the end of that campaign and was well held in a handicap on last start; Close second behind Carlito Brigante but hugely flattered with weight concession, so has a lot to do to be involved.
Escort’Men: Brought down on first start and had previously finished fifth in a Listed hurdle at Auteuil; Super impressive when landing Dovecote by 14 lengths on bridle; Race fell in front of him to an extent, having been a strongly run affair on soft ground but he was super impressive that day; Not shown to best light by fast Ground at Aintree, and proved he’s got guts to go with class when landing competitive limited handicap on first start this season (recovered from terrible mistake at last); Interesting contender who still has potential.
Khyber Kim: Proved an absolute revelation last year with wins in the Greatwood and Bula Hurdle before an excellent second in the Champion, topped off with a win in the Aintree Hurdle; One of the standouts in this field and set to run a big race if fit and ready.
Overturn: Made some truly remarkable progress over hurdles and the flat fduring the summer, romping away with the Northumberland Plate, Scottish Champion Hurdle and Galway Hurdle; That doesn’t entitled him to take a hand here but comes from a good yard to do so (same connections of Peddlers Cross) and not to be underestimated on a fair track that’s bound to suit although he still has a lot to do.
Starluck: Went some way towards fulfilling potential showed as a juvenile hurdler last season, winning easily at Cheltenham before coming a close second to Go Native in this last year (flattered); 5th behind Binocular in the Champion last year was an excellent run and he came back just as good when pushing Peddlers Cross all the way in Fighting Fifth; Another big run expected.
VERDICT: A very solid renewal of the Christmas Hurdle which will provide the latest in a long line of insights into what is shaping up to be a fascinating Champion Hurdle picture. Although he was beaten in this race last season after showing below par in the Fighting Fifth BINOCULAR shaped as if much more forward this year than last when third at Newbury behind Starluck, being right there without much forcing right up until the last before flattening out, and he could take all the beating with the improvement likely to come. Despite the reappearance of last year’s Champion Hurdle second Khyber Kim, the one to beat may well be Starluck, with a run under his belt at the track he loves, while this may prove a bit too tough for Escortmen despite his trainer’s excellent record with 4 year olds in big races. In any case, he rates a more tempting prospect than Overturn despite the conditions being set to suit.
William Hill King George 2011
3.00 Kempton
William Hill King George VI Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £114,020
Picks: Kauto Star (win),& The Nightingale (each/way)
Albertas Run: Past RSA winner who was impressive when scoring by 7 lengths in last at the beginning of last season; Did very well with ideal conditions, coming second in Ascot Chase before winning Ryanair and Melling Chases in good style; Came back with well beaten fourth in Old Roan but already running much better when falling 2 out (his pursuit of Masterminded proving futile) in Amlin 1965 Chase; May well be at his mid season peak and would be no surprise to see him run well.
Forpadydeplasterer: Finest hour came in the 2009 Arkle winner over C&D and has since been second on every single race he’s started, all but one of them in Grade one company; Usually runs game race but shouldn’t have been beaten last time and while one can see him getting involved over this trip and track, hard to see him winning.
Kauto Star: Confirmed himself as one of outstanding chasers of modern time when trashing 2009 Gold Cup field by 13 lengths, becoming only horse to regain Cheltenham Gold Cup in process and looked set for the three timer after a demolition job in this very race last year (one of highest rated performances ever) only to fall in main event, an earlier mistake having taken its toll; Came back seemingly as good as ever when beating Sizing Europe at Down Royal and one to beat as he aims for a remarkable fifth straight win.
Long Run: Came here with plenty of experience from France, and high quality experience at that as winner of three of his four starts over fences (impressive success in the Grade 1 Prix Maurice Gillois); Hacked up by 13 lengths from next time out winner Tazbar in Feltham Chase, and did same again when easy winner of Kingmaker Novices’ Chase; Made significant jumping errors on both wins and unable to get away with them when fading late on in RSA; Was widely expected to win Paddy Power Gold Cup off mark of 158 but a sloppy round of jumping led to a lacklustre third place; Foolish to write him off due to that, but has a lot of work to do on his jumping if he’s to land this.
Madison Du Berlais: Was an absolute revelation 2 seasons ago when winning this very race (off a 12lbs higher mark the Levy Board Chase (beat Denman by 23 lengths ) and Totesport Bowl; Hasn’t been in the same form since due to a mark of 169 but ran creditably on all occasions since and it’s well worth remembering that he was second in this last year, so he’s suitably placed to take advantage should he be below his best.
Nacarat: Impressed on first foray into Grade 1 company when nearly making all the running in the Melling Chase after a romp in the Racing Post chase; Went off boil since but has slowly came back into some sort of form afterwards and confirmed revival with easy Charlie Hall Chase win; Was well beaten after attempting to lead all the way in the Betfair Chase, and may find it near impossible to succeed with forcing tactics here.
Planet Of Sound: Ran a couple of great races at Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals as a novice, finishing third in the Arkle, and continued in the same vein when landing the Haldon Gold Cup on his first start last year, before a series of disappointing runs followed by a career best when landing the Punchestown Gold Cup; Made satisfactory return when third in Betfair Chase and very interesting at generous price given his rating.
Riverside Theatre: Reached a high level of form over hurdles and set to do big things over fences when hacking up on his first 2 starts as a novice; Made remarkable progress to come as close as fifth in Arkle last year, having been tailed off at halfway, so disappointing that he fell at Punchestown; Looked superb when coasting home here earlier in season and may be good enough to get involved.
The Nightingale: Looked to have been totally rejuvenated by a breathing op when bolting up at Fontwell and Kempton on his first two chase starts last year, so shame that he ruined his chance early by jumping right at Aintree; May have slipped under the radar following a serious effort when slamming Robert Goldback by 11 lengths, an effort that entitles him to be compering seriously in Grade 1 races; Second that day has since come third in John Durkan Chase (only beaten 1&1/2 lengths and massive unfilled potential, should he run here.
VERDICT: A pretty stellar renewal of a race that has made legends in the past, and today it all revolves around one horse. It’s nearly impossible to see anything beating KAUTO STAR in his attempt to win a remarkable 5th King George, with the 4 time winner looking as good as ever when winning the JNWine.com Champion Chase last time out. Long Run is seen by many as the horse to stop him, but he made several errors last time out and did not run up to a rating that suggested he could win this in the Paddy Power. With the likes of Nacarat and Ollie Magern looking set to make this a strong pace, those looking to for a solid each way alternative could do a lot worse than stablemate THE NIGHTINGALE, who's got a serious chance on his win at Down Royal earlier this season. Riverside Theatre is richly unexposed over fences (this will be his sixth start over fences) and may well take a hand, for all that he’s yet to be asked to go three miles.
William Hill King George VI Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £114,020
Picks: Kauto Star (win),& The Nightingale (each/way)
Albertas Run: Past RSA winner who was impressive when scoring by 7 lengths in last at the beginning of last season; Did very well with ideal conditions, coming second in Ascot Chase before winning Ryanair and Melling Chases in good style; Came back with well beaten fourth in Old Roan but already running much better when falling 2 out (his pursuit of Masterminded proving futile) in Amlin 1965 Chase; May well be at his mid season peak and would be no surprise to see him run well.
Forpadydeplasterer: Finest hour came in the 2009 Arkle winner over C&D and has since been second on every single race he’s started, all but one of them in Grade one company; Usually runs game race but shouldn’t have been beaten last time and while one can see him getting involved over this trip and track, hard to see him winning.
Kauto Star: Confirmed himself as one of outstanding chasers of modern time when trashing 2009 Gold Cup field by 13 lengths, becoming only horse to regain Cheltenham Gold Cup in process and looked set for the three timer after a demolition job in this very race last year (one of highest rated performances ever) only to fall in main event, an earlier mistake having taken its toll; Came back seemingly as good as ever when beating Sizing Europe at Down Royal and one to beat as he aims for a remarkable fifth straight win.
Long Run: Came here with plenty of experience from France, and high quality experience at that as winner of three of his four starts over fences (impressive success in the Grade 1 Prix Maurice Gillois); Hacked up by 13 lengths from next time out winner Tazbar in Feltham Chase, and did same again when easy winner of Kingmaker Novices’ Chase; Made significant jumping errors on both wins and unable to get away with them when fading late on in RSA; Was widely expected to win Paddy Power Gold Cup off mark of 158 but a sloppy round of jumping led to a lacklustre third place; Foolish to write him off due to that, but has a lot of work to do on his jumping if he’s to land this.
Madison Du Berlais: Was an absolute revelation 2 seasons ago when winning this very race (off a 12lbs higher mark the Levy Board Chase (beat Denman by 23 lengths ) and Totesport Bowl; Hasn’t been in the same form since due to a mark of 169 but ran creditably on all occasions since and it’s well worth remembering that he was second in this last year, so he’s suitably placed to take advantage should he be below his best.
Nacarat: Impressed on first foray into Grade 1 company when nearly making all the running in the Melling Chase after a romp in the Racing Post chase; Went off boil since but has slowly came back into some sort of form afterwards and confirmed revival with easy Charlie Hall Chase win; Was well beaten after attempting to lead all the way in the Betfair Chase, and may find it near impossible to succeed with forcing tactics here.
Planet Of Sound: Ran a couple of great races at Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals as a novice, finishing third in the Arkle, and continued in the same vein when landing the Haldon Gold Cup on his first start last year, before a series of disappointing runs followed by a career best when landing the Punchestown Gold Cup; Made satisfactory return when third in Betfair Chase and very interesting at generous price given his rating.
Riverside Theatre: Reached a high level of form over hurdles and set to do big things over fences when hacking up on his first 2 starts as a novice; Made remarkable progress to come as close as fifth in Arkle last year, having been tailed off at halfway, so disappointing that he fell at Punchestown; Looked superb when coasting home here earlier in season and may be good enough to get involved.
The Nightingale: Looked to have been totally rejuvenated by a breathing op when bolting up at Fontwell and Kempton on his first two chase starts last year, so shame that he ruined his chance early by jumping right at Aintree; May have slipped under the radar following a serious effort when slamming Robert Goldback by 11 lengths, an effort that entitles him to be compering seriously in Grade 1 races; Second that day has since come third in John Durkan Chase (only beaten 1&1/2 lengths and massive unfilled potential, should he run here.
VERDICT: A pretty stellar renewal of a race that has made legends in the past, and today it all revolves around one horse. It’s nearly impossible to see anything beating KAUTO STAR in his attempt to win a remarkable 5th King George, with the 4 time winner looking as good as ever when winning the JNWine.com Champion Chase last time out. Long Run is seen by many as the horse to stop him, but he made several errors last time out and did not run up to a rating that suggested he could win this in the Paddy Power. With the likes of Nacarat and Ollie Magern looking set to make this a strong pace, those looking to for a solid each way alternative could do a lot worse than stablemate THE NIGHTINGALE, who's got a serious chance on his win at Down Royal earlier this season. Riverside Theatre is richly unexposed over fences (this will be his sixth start over fences) and may well take a hand, for all that he’s yet to be asked to go three miles.
Wednesday, 12 January 2011
Dubai Carnival 2011 - Week 1
UAE 1,000 Guineas Trial, 7f, Tapeta (3.15) – I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big runs from Mahoooba, who was very taking when landing the Golden Slipper in South Africa on her last start, but she may not be suited by Tapeta and has a mountain to do to turn the tables around with Herman Brown’s CHOCLICIOUS, who had her nearly 4 lengths back on levels in Alllen Robertson Championship back in May. Ryan Moore takes the ride and she should be hard to beat. You can’t discount the De Kock second string Empire Rose, who was getting the hang of things with every run and should be able to make an impact it tuned up, while I doubt that Reem will find this much easier than running in her Native homeland. Godolphin's Abtasaamah, a very easy maiden winner at Southwell, lost her action in the Rockfel and the run is best ignored – Whether she’s as good as they think she is debatable but she’s one to watch for the powerhouse stable at this meeting – Najoum seems the second string here. Crying Lightening has a good chance but she needs to prove herself on the surface, and she may have done improving
Dolce Vita Handicap, Turf, 7f (3.55) - It’s clear that Ashram is the one to beat here. He was just verging on pattern class and has a fair mark of 118, although he’s likely to be punted big time here. Mike De Kock saddles the ultra-tough Warsaw but he generally needs a run to bring him to his peak and the stable hopes may rest with Clearly Silver, ridden by Christophe Soumillion. It’s fascinating to see Laa Rayb off just 107 for a trainer who has a %7.4 strike rate here (Fallon on board) but ESCAPE ROUTE makes a lot of appeal following a promising second on Boxing Day in the President Cup (Turf), having won here under the same rider (Richard Mullen) last year in the Carnival off 98. He runs of 104 today and could hold a big chance as decent odds.
Evidenza Handicap, Tapeta 1m3f (4:30) - I’d say that while the likely favourite will be Rock N Roll Ransom (understandable given that he’s got more to come then he’s shown for a big stable/jockey), Meerisss holds the outstanding chance given that he’s had an excellent recent run for a trainer who does well here and the fact that Christophe Lemaire has been booked speaks volumes. The advantage of a recent run might be enough for WONDER LAWN, who had an excellent prep last time and could have a successful carnival.
Prima Luna Handicap, Turf 1m4f (5.05) - A race to be treated with caution, given that most of these have bigger targets later in the Carnival and are unlikely to be fully wound up. It’s a classy field, so weight may not count an awful lot. Mikhail Glinka has a crucial recent run to his name although I’m not sure if he’s as good as he was for Ballydoyle and he needs watching today, even if that’s at the expense of a potentially well handicapped horse. EQUIPARADA was really impressive when winning the Mercedes Benz Gold Vase (especially given that she stumbled at the start) and can be expected to go close if wound up, while HAPPY VALLEY ran a monstrous race to come fifth in the Durban July over a trip that was a little short for him and a massive run could be on the cards. There’s a proviso that boht may be unfit, but that could apply to many.
Conquests Conditions Race, Tapeta, 6f (5.40) -It’s fascinating to see the likes of Evens and Odds, Inxile, Rock Jock, Invincible Ash, Green Beret and especially Bankable here, although nobody knows how many will handle the surface (although Invisible Ash won on AW at Dundalk) and Bankable will need further than this to be at his best ( a run too mind). The latter comment may well apply to OUR GIANT, but he looked set or big thing when landing the Mercury Sprint a year and a half ago and if he repeats that he’s a shoe – in off 115. Dohasa would have to be the next best.
Dolce Vita Handicap, Turf, 7f (3.55) - It’s clear that Ashram is the one to beat here. He was just verging on pattern class and has a fair mark of 118, although he’s likely to be punted big time here. Mike De Kock saddles the ultra-tough Warsaw but he generally needs a run to bring him to his peak and the stable hopes may rest with Clearly Silver, ridden by Christophe Soumillion. It’s fascinating to see Laa Rayb off just 107 for a trainer who has a %7.4 strike rate here (Fallon on board) but ESCAPE ROUTE makes a lot of appeal following a promising second on Boxing Day in the President Cup (Turf), having won here under the same rider (Richard Mullen) last year in the Carnival off 98. He runs of 104 today and could hold a big chance as decent odds.
Evidenza Handicap, Tapeta 1m3f (4:30) - I’d say that while the likely favourite will be Rock N Roll Ransom (understandable given that he’s got more to come then he’s shown for a big stable/jockey), Meerisss holds the outstanding chance given that he’s had an excellent recent run for a trainer who does well here and the fact that Christophe Lemaire has been booked speaks volumes. The advantage of a recent run might be enough for WONDER LAWN, who had an excellent prep last time and could have a successful carnival.
Prima Luna Handicap, Turf 1m4f (5.05) - A race to be treated with caution, given that most of these have bigger targets later in the Carnival and are unlikely to be fully wound up. It’s a classy field, so weight may not count an awful lot. Mikhail Glinka has a crucial recent run to his name although I’m not sure if he’s as good as he was for Ballydoyle and he needs watching today, even if that’s at the expense of a potentially well handicapped horse. EQUIPARADA was really impressive when winning the Mercedes Benz Gold Vase (especially given that she stumbled at the start) and can be expected to go close if wound up, while HAPPY VALLEY ran a monstrous race to come fifth in the Durban July over a trip that was a little short for him and a massive run could be on the cards. There’s a proviso that boht may be unfit, but that could apply to many.
Conquests Conditions Race, Tapeta, 6f (5.40) -It’s fascinating to see the likes of Evens and Odds, Inxile, Rock Jock, Invincible Ash, Green Beret and especially Bankable here, although nobody knows how many will handle the surface (although Invisible Ash won on AW at Dundalk) and Bankable will need further than this to be at his best ( a run too mind). The latter comment may well apply to OUR GIANT, but he looked set or big thing when landing the Mercury Sprint a year and a half ago and if he repeats that he’s a shoe – in off 115. Dohasa would have to be the next best.
Saturday, 8 January 2011
Tote Pick Six Killiney Novice Chase 2010
1.20 Leoaprdstown
Tote Pick Six Killiney Novice Chase (grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €24,375
Pick: Jessies Dream (win)
Jessies Dream: landed a bumper and both starts over hurdles in 2008/2009, and never quite reached that potential for the Mullins team; Has already begun fulfilling that potential in his second season over fences however, bolting up in good novice chase at Galway before winning the Drinmore in good style(despite the last fence fall of Mikael D’Haugenet clouding things); Second and fourth have won Grade 1’s at better trips for them since and serious Festival candidate on that evidence.
Bob Lingo: Was given plenty of rope for a horse with his talent when bolting up by 20 lengths at Fairyhouse last time, and may get the same advantage in small field here, which would make him a serious threat for all he was set to finish well behind Jessies Dream in the Drinmore.
Elysian Rock: Improving for each run (and also raising in trip), having won his last 2 on the bounce; Got a handy weight concession when winning 2 starts ago and well shown up in Grade 1 at Leopardstown last time.
Magnaminty: Was a grade 2 winner over hurdles last season and learned the hang of chasing very quickly when winning last time out; Relishes a slog and has to be considered seriously in ideal conditions here, although a slow gallop (very possible) won’t help matters.
Western Charmer: Useful over hurdles, coming second to Mikael D’Haugenet and Pandorama in graded hurdles; Had been extremely unimpressive chasing previously, pulling up before winning ordinary race but was close third to Bostons Angel and needs serious considering.
VERIDCT: The subsequent performances of the horses that JESSIES DREAM beat in the Drinmore have given him the look of a serious horse and while it would be no put off to see him beaten by either Magnanimity, who shapes like a horse who will just love a slog here, and Western Charmer, who has stamina in abundance, he's got an outstanding chance.
Tote Pick Six Killiney Novice Chase (grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €24,375
Pick: Jessies Dream (win)
Jessies Dream: landed a bumper and both starts over hurdles in 2008/2009, and never quite reached that potential for the Mullins team; Has already begun fulfilling that potential in his second season over fences however, bolting up in good novice chase at Galway before winning the Drinmore in good style(despite the last fence fall of Mikael D’Haugenet clouding things); Second and fourth have won Grade 1’s at better trips for them since and serious Festival candidate on that evidence.
Bob Lingo: Was given plenty of rope for a horse with his talent when bolting up by 20 lengths at Fairyhouse last time, and may get the same advantage in small field here, which would make him a serious threat for all he was set to finish well behind Jessies Dream in the Drinmore.
Elysian Rock: Improving for each run (and also raising in trip), having won his last 2 on the bounce; Got a handy weight concession when winning 2 starts ago and well shown up in Grade 1 at Leopardstown last time.
Magnaminty: Was a grade 2 winner over hurdles last season and learned the hang of chasing very quickly when winning last time out; Relishes a slog and has to be considered seriously in ideal conditions here, although a slow gallop (very possible) won’t help matters.
Western Charmer: Useful over hurdles, coming second to Mikael D’Haugenet and Pandorama in graded hurdles; Had been extremely unimpressive chasing previously, pulling up before winning ordinary race but was close third to Bostons Angel and needs serious considering.
VERIDCT: The subsequent performances of the horses that JESSIES DREAM beat in the Drinmore have given him the look of a serious horse and while it would be no put off to see him beaten by either Magnanimity, who shapes like a horse who will just love a slog here, and Western Charmer, who has stamina in abundance, he's got an outstanding chance.
MCR Hurdle Preview
I'm not a huge fan of handicap hurdles, but to make up for missing yesterday's racing here's a preview of the MCR Hurdle (trends from www.racecaller.com)
Trends for the last 10 years say that you want a horse who's aged 6 to 8, Placed last time out (ideally at Leopardstown Christmas meeting), Posted their highest RPR, Run no more than 4 times this season, Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles, Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning no more than 1), Second season hurdler, Carrying less than 10-12, Officially rated 116 to 126, Tends to races prominently, Trained by Tony Martin or Willie Mullins, and is Priced 16/1 or shorter.
This left me with three horses: PRIMA VISTA, LANCETTO and ASIGH PEARL. I wouldn’t put anyone off the favourite, given how impressively he won with authority at Christmas and duly picked up the penalty his trainer wanted him to get in order to assure getting into tomorrow’s 26-runner field.
But a 15lb ratings hike is a hefty one in any context and it has to be a big negative here, so despite the fact he didn’t make my shortlist I’d say TIJUANA DANCER is the better choice, especially at 8/1.
He’s struggled to get his head in front for a while but its 16lbs better off for only a 4 and half length beating at Leopardstown last time and fits all but 2 of the trends, with the rating of 116 being no negative on this ground in such a tough field.
Lancetto impressed with his win last time in October, landing a decent race in good style. The only problems with him are that he’s now 12 lb higher than when runner-up at Gowran the time before and he needs ground better than this, so while 20/1’s tempting, it’s passed over.
ASIGH PEARL comes from the same stable as the favourite and while she’s nowhere near as consistent as Prima Vista, she’s got excellent claims if on a going day here off a 6lbs higher mark when winning the Bar One Racing Handicap Hurdle at Fairyhouse last time, beating a good horse in Fosters Cross. She may well chuck it in but she’s surely worth the risk.
And if you're looking for a bet, Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports and Blue Sq will go 1/4 the odds for the race, along with Paddy Power and all others apart from William Hill and Coral.
Recommendations
1 pt each/way Tijuana Dancer (9/1 William Hill, others will go 1/4 5 places)
1 pt each/way Asiagh Pearl (16/1 General)
Trends for the last 10 years say that you want a horse who's aged 6 to 8, Placed last time out (ideally at Leopardstown Christmas meeting), Posted their highest RPR, Run no more than 4 times this season, Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles, Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning no more than 1), Second season hurdler, Carrying less than 10-12, Officially rated 116 to 126, Tends to races prominently, Trained by Tony Martin or Willie Mullins, and is Priced 16/1 or shorter.
This left me with three horses: PRIMA VISTA, LANCETTO and ASIGH PEARL. I wouldn’t put anyone off the favourite, given how impressively he won with authority at Christmas and duly picked up the penalty his trainer wanted him to get in order to assure getting into tomorrow’s 26-runner field.
But a 15lb ratings hike is a hefty one in any context and it has to be a big negative here, so despite the fact he didn’t make my shortlist I’d say TIJUANA DANCER is the better choice, especially at 8/1.
He’s struggled to get his head in front for a while but its 16lbs better off for only a 4 and half length beating at Leopardstown last time and fits all but 2 of the trends, with the rating of 116 being no negative on this ground in such a tough field.
Lancetto impressed with his win last time in October, landing a decent race in good style. The only problems with him are that he’s now 12 lb higher than when runner-up at Gowran the time before and he needs ground better than this, so while 20/1’s tempting, it’s passed over.
ASIGH PEARL comes from the same stable as the favourite and while she’s nowhere near as consistent as Prima Vista, she’s got excellent claims if on a going day here off a 6lbs higher mark when winning the Bar One Racing Handicap Hurdle at Fairyhouse last time, beating a good horse in Fosters Cross. She may well chuck it in but she’s surely worth the risk.
And if you're looking for a bet, Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports and Blue Sq will go 1/4 the odds for the race, along with Paddy Power and all others apart from William Hill and Coral.
Recommendations
1 pt each/way Tijuana Dancer (9/1 William Hill, others will go 1/4 5 places)
1 pt each/way Asiagh Pearl (16/1 General)
FA Cup 3rd Round - United v Liverpool
It’s been a long time since I did a football preview, so ‘d like plenty of feedback on this one. Sadly I missed all of the racing on Saturday, but I wouldn’t have done too well to be honest.
Well done to AP McCoy on landing yet another National on Synchronised, who is fair value at 14/1 for Aintree given that he’s shown he will stay all day and has brushed up his jumping. On that note, I’d be very keen on last year’s winner Don’t Push It – A compressed handicap means that he can only carry 4lbs more than when winning last season, and follow up attempters Hedgehunter and Comply Or Die have both run very well under big weights recently – And prices of around 16’s and 20’s are more than fair, with McCoy having already confirmed he will ride. One thing that did annoy me was Sam Winner being run in an absolute bog at Chepstow – His defeat has made a mess of the juvenile division, but I’d be certain he’s better than that and I’d give him another chance.
The third round of the FA Cup has already provided wonderful entertainment and countless drama, with Arsenal only just overcoming a shock against Leeds, and Notts County upspring high flying Sunderland at the Stadium Of Light, no mean feat given that some big teams haven’t won there this season.
The sacking of Kenny Daglish seems to have given Liverpool fans renewed optimism, and it’d be no surprise to see them put in an improved performance against arch-rivals MANCHESTER UNITED, but this wouldn’t be the first false dawn on Merseyside, with the new owners NESV seen as many as the key cog to get the red’s season moving again.
United are nearly unbeaten in all competitions as we enter 2011 (barring a 4-0 loss to West Ham in the Carling Cup) and I see no reason to see that run coming to an end. Putting aside the stunning 4-1 defeat from the 2008/9 season, United have won six of their last seven home encounters against their rivals and anyone who’s watched the their last three games - especially the 3-1 capitulation at Blackburn – will struggle to see the home side losing.
Stats over, the addition of a new manager doesn’t change the facts for Liverpool. They’ve lost three of their last 6 games – Including a loss at home to Wolves. They’ve lost the last two on the road, and not won in six. They’ve drawn two and lost four away from home, since beating Bolton 1-0 at the Reebok on 31 October.
After all I’ve said – What should be the danger? United won’t be at full strength. As much as they love beating Liverpool, the FA Cup will be behind the Champions League and Premier League in priorities and you can be sure that Liverpool will turn up with their best squad, which will include Gerrard, Reina, Torres, Meireles and Cole. As mercurial as they are – They are world class on their day and can turn the game round against any side.
Also, despite being the tournament's most successful side, United have a shaky record at home in the FA Cup during the last decade. They were stunned by Leeds United last season and by Portsmouth in 2008, while Arsenal and West Ham knocked them out in 2003 and 2001 respectively. Prior to those exits, Reading and Exeter were able to force replays before finally succumbing to the 11-time winners.
However, this Liverpool side are the worst seen for some while in terms of confidence and performance and I expect Manchester United to prove too strong for them.
Recommendation
3 pts on Manchester United to beat Liverpool (4/6 Betfred, VCBet, Blue Sq, Stan James, 888Sport)
Well done to AP McCoy on landing yet another National on Synchronised, who is fair value at 14/1 for Aintree given that he’s shown he will stay all day and has brushed up his jumping. On that note, I’d be very keen on last year’s winner Don’t Push It – A compressed handicap means that he can only carry 4lbs more than when winning last season, and follow up attempters Hedgehunter and Comply Or Die have both run very well under big weights recently – And prices of around 16’s and 20’s are more than fair, with McCoy having already confirmed he will ride. One thing that did annoy me was Sam Winner being run in an absolute bog at Chepstow – His defeat has made a mess of the juvenile division, but I’d be certain he’s better than that and I’d give him another chance.
The third round of the FA Cup has already provided wonderful entertainment and countless drama, with Arsenal only just overcoming a shock against Leeds, and Notts County upspring high flying Sunderland at the Stadium Of Light, no mean feat given that some big teams haven’t won there this season.
The sacking of Kenny Daglish seems to have given Liverpool fans renewed optimism, and it’d be no surprise to see them put in an improved performance against arch-rivals MANCHESTER UNITED, but this wouldn’t be the first false dawn on Merseyside, with the new owners NESV seen as many as the key cog to get the red’s season moving again.
United are nearly unbeaten in all competitions as we enter 2011 (barring a 4-0 loss to West Ham in the Carling Cup) and I see no reason to see that run coming to an end. Putting aside the stunning 4-1 defeat from the 2008/9 season, United have won six of their last seven home encounters against their rivals and anyone who’s watched the their last three games - especially the 3-1 capitulation at Blackburn – will struggle to see the home side losing.
Stats over, the addition of a new manager doesn’t change the facts for Liverpool. They’ve lost three of their last 6 games – Including a loss at home to Wolves. They’ve lost the last two on the road, and not won in six. They’ve drawn two and lost four away from home, since beating Bolton 1-0 at the Reebok on 31 October.
After all I’ve said – What should be the danger? United won’t be at full strength. As much as they love beating Liverpool, the FA Cup will be behind the Champions League and Premier League in priorities and you can be sure that Liverpool will turn up with their best squad, which will include Gerrard, Reina, Torres, Meireles and Cole. As mercurial as they are – They are world class on their day and can turn the game round against any side.
Also, despite being the tournament's most successful side, United have a shaky record at home in the FA Cup during the last decade. They were stunned by Leeds United last season and by Portsmouth in 2008, while Arsenal and West Ham knocked them out in 2003 and 2001 respectively. Prior to those exits, Reading and Exeter were able to force replays before finally succumbing to the 11-time winners.
However, this Liverpool side are the worst seen for some while in terms of confidence and performance and I expect Manchester United to prove too strong for them.
Recommendation
3 pts on Manchester United to beat Liverpool (4/6 Betfred, VCBet, Blue Sq, Stan James, 888Sport)
Coral Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle
1.10 Chepstow
Coral Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO only)
Winner £19,954
Pick: Sam Winner (win)
Dolatulo: Impressed when winning by 6 lengths on final French start and continued in same vein when winning by 23 lengths in a demolition job at Sandown; Pulling very hard under big penalty didn’t help him on last start when slammed by Smad Place on last start, and not hard to see him getting much closer here.
Houbloun Des Obeaux: Has run to a decent level of form in France, coming runner up twice on her last on his last 2 starts and having also won back in May; Could hardly have been handed a stiffer assignment for British debut.
Kalamill: Lost nothing in debut when good second on debut to decent horse but won’t be holding his own here based on his sixth behind Sam Winner in Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time.
Marsh Warbler: Turned out very quickly following a promising third on hurdling debut when thrashing opposition at Bangor; Didn’t have to do much more to go in last time and capable to making this grade at a push.
Royal and Ancient: Not always looked straightforward and booked for a struggle against some of the best seen in this division so far.
Sam Winner: Had shown useful form when coming second on all three French starts and duly built on that when romping home in JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial by unextended 15 lengths, the best juvenile performance of the season so far; Wasn’t pushed too hard to go in at Cheltenham last time and has to be best seen in division so far.
Smad Place: Came to top stable having been runner-up on second of starts over hurdles in French Provinces; Made a hugely impressive debut when slamming Doulatulo by 27 lengths at Newbury and has to go close here.
Flighty Francis: Fairly useful on the flat for David Elsworth but form tailed off for that yard and he’s got it too tough here on all evidence.
VERDICT: It will be fascinating to see how Doulatulo and Smad Place get on in massively different conditions, but they’ll both have to go some to stop SAM WINNER from landing the hat – trick after 2 impressive wins with good form to back himself up.
Coral Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO only)
Winner £19,954
Pick: Sam Winner (win)
Dolatulo: Impressed when winning by 6 lengths on final French start and continued in same vein when winning by 23 lengths in a demolition job at Sandown; Pulling very hard under big penalty didn’t help him on last start when slammed by Smad Place on last start, and not hard to see him getting much closer here.
Houbloun Des Obeaux: Has run to a decent level of form in France, coming runner up twice on her last on his last 2 starts and having also won back in May; Could hardly have been handed a stiffer assignment for British debut.
Kalamill: Lost nothing in debut when good second on debut to decent horse but won’t be holding his own here based on his sixth behind Sam Winner in Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time.
Marsh Warbler: Turned out very quickly following a promising third on hurdling debut when thrashing opposition at Bangor; Didn’t have to do much more to go in last time and capable to making this grade at a push.
Royal and Ancient: Not always looked straightforward and booked for a struggle against some of the best seen in this division so far.
Sam Winner: Had shown useful form when coming second on all three French starts and duly built on that when romping home in JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial by unextended 15 lengths, the best juvenile performance of the season so far; Wasn’t pushed too hard to go in at Cheltenham last time and has to be best seen in division so far.
Smad Place: Came to top stable having been runner-up on second of starts over hurdles in French Provinces; Made a hugely impressive debut when slamming Doulatulo by 27 lengths at Newbury and has to go close here.
Flighty Francis: Fairly useful on the flat for David Elsworth but form tailed off for that yard and he’s got it too tough here on all evidence.
VERDICT: It will be fascinating to see how Doulatulo and Smad Place get on in massively different conditions, but they’ll both have to go some to stop SAM WINNER from landing the hat – trick after 2 impressive wins with good form to back himself up.
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