Ladbrokes St Leger 2011

3.10 Doncaster

Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo) Winner £306,262

Advice: 1 pt win Sea Moon (13/8 Blue Sq)

Brown Panther: Leapt onto pecking order for this race with stunning Ascot handicap win, but things not gone that well upped to Group company; Went too hard in German Derby and held up too far back when behind Census last time, but feeling that latter named horse has improved past him.

Buthelezi: Had his quirks but still rapidly progressive as a juvenile when winning maiden and nursery & confirmed his progress when winning competitive handicap on seasonal reappearance; Excelled himself last twice and long trip should him but looks to plain slow.

Census: Took time to come to hand as a 2yo but impressive in breaking maiden when stepped up to a mile and yet more progress when upped in trip this season, taking handicap at Newbury impressively before doing best of those held up when it paid to race prominently in the King George Handicap at Royal Ascot; Progressed again when second to Masked Marvel and ran straight as a bullet when winning Group 3 at Newbury, so must be considered a prime contender.

Genius Beast: Built on already solid two year old form when a clear cut and decisive winner of the Bet 365 Classic Trial at Sandown, taking advantage of whole field dispersing across the track; Better form when third in the Hocquart but well held in the Hardwicke Stakes/Voltigeur; Has ideal profile to come to boil here but does looks safely held by more progressive side. 

 

Masked Marvel: Regained earlier promise shown on debut when an impressive winner of the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood, easily beating a useful but limited field; Well held in Derby but right back to best when winning Group 3 Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket, possible taking advantage.

Sea Moon: Cemented a high reputation earned last winter with deeply impressive handicap win under topweight on reappearance; Blew that out of water when cantering home with Great Voltigeur, although there are some doubts about that form (false ground accentuated margin, this harder race) seriously impressive win and the one they have to beat if he wants to win here.

Seville: Only disappointed once in career and holds a winning chance based on his two Group 1 seconds this season, the form of which has been boosted majorly; Poorest run since Derby when well beaten behind Sea Moon at York, where he looked as if long season had caught up with him; If that’s not the case, he comes into the equation.

Blue Bunting: Huge for a filly with her breeding to win 1,000 Guineas on seasonal debut and strong fancy for Oaks off the back of that, but chance compromised by slowly run race (poor ride); Amends made when just getting up in Irish equivalent and better again when winning Yorkshire Oaks last time, looking better as she went on;

Rumh: Pacemaker for Blue Bunting.

VERDICT: With so much choice around the original school of thought was to oppose SEA MOON but he’s got a super strong set of credentials and flaws can be picked in many of his rivals, not least the fact that he’s had a very light season (only 2 runs so far, compared to a minimum of 4 for everything else in the race), while he can improve again for the step up in trip from last time. Triple Group 1 winner Blue Bunting has had a long season, Census, Masked Marvel and Brown Panther could all finish on top of each – other which leads me to believe that neither may be a world beater, while Seville looked a very tired horse when beaten so quickly in the Great Voltigeur.