Qatar Prix Niel 2011

Longchamp 1.30

Qatar Prix Niel (Group 2) (3yo Colts & Fillies) (3yo) Winner £63,879

Advice: 2 pts Meandre (10/11 Hills), 1 pt each/way Nakayama Knight (16/1 Blue Sq)

Vadamar: Sent off odds on for the Prix Greffulhe after easy win in the Listed Prix Francois Mathet at Saint-Cloud, but well held behind Pour Moi at finish (didn’t get great trip) and not disgraced in Derby, where he probably didn’t handle the track that well; Very interesting cotennder.

King Of Arnor: Progressive once stepped upto this trip and crucially once finding ground with proper cut in it, completing a hat-trick following conditions-race wins at Saint-Cloud and Compiegne with easy front running win in Prix Frederic de Lagrange last time; Interesting although most impressive wins with proper juice in ground.

Meandre: Slow developer but getting act together based on last three wins, especially when making remarkable ground to win Prix L‘Avre and Grand Prix De Paris, beating pair of very solid yardsticks; Likely to take all the beating here if fit enough.

Nakayama Knight: Finished fourth of 18 in Japanese Derby on ground that was probably softer than ideal, and with good record of Asian raiders he must be considered closely; Been trained for Arc and could go well here.

  Colombian: Improved for step up in trip when a well backed and clear cut winner of Chester maiden, and has bettered that with two huge runs in major French races, fourth in the French Derby and then a luckless third in Group 2; Effort last time suggest that step up in trip (slower tempo) would help him but not sure he’s’ good enough.

Realiable Man: Three wins from four starts, including the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly in most taking style, having made up plenty of ground in straight; Rated so highly he was left in King George until late on but switched to Grand Prix De Paris instead, where questionable ride left him with too much ground to make up; Unlikely that he would have beaten Meandre anyway, but should be closer today (trainer also somehow felt ground was “too firm” for him.

VERDICT: If MEANDRE comes here ready to do himself justice then it’s likely he’s going to be too good for Reliable Man, who should benefit from being closer to the pace than in the Grand Prix De Paris, Vadamar, who plainly didn’t handle the track in the Derby, and Nakayama Knight, who has been readied for this and is worth each/way support. Confidence is boosted by the fact that the last 2 Grand Prix De Paris winners won this on their way to big shows in the Arc.