Cheltenham Festival (Day 2, Race 2)
Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle (2.05)
Picks: Oscars Well (win)
Accordintolawerence: Has won two from four this season but both were poor contests in this context and has flopped under penalty twice; Too inconsistent.
Aikman: Taken big steps forward with every single run over hurdles and biggest victory by some way when getting better of Tolworth winner Minella Class in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon but got 8lbs in weight and a farcical start gave him massive lead; Can go forward again but unlikely to confirm form.
First Lieutenant: Winner of a steadily run maiden hurdle before getting beat at odds on in novice contest next time; Sprung big shock when getting better of Zaidpour over Christmas at Leopardstown and that form does look strong at least; Connections feel he should improve for better ground so every chance of making a big impact.
Habbie Simpson: Won first 2 over hurdles by wide margins before good third to Bobs Worth over this course and distance but brushed aside on 4lbs better terms in Grade 2 trial and will find it too hard to reverse form, although still has decent hopes of reversing form.
Highland Valley: Clearly very talented and will have learnt a lot for the experience jumping wise when well beaten fourth over three miles behind Mossley here two starts ago, making amends at Exeter under double penalty; Not without a chance of being involved at the finish although this particular event might be beyond him at this stage.
Megastar: Long way behind Cue Card in bumpers but did look to have quite a good future over hurdles when winning by 16 lengths on hurdling debut at Ascot; Lost little in caste when second to very smart Rock On Ruby but disappointing on next two starts and just doesn’t settle enough, for all that a strong pace could really improve his performance.
Minella Class: Won his first two starts for this yard with ease, one on goodish ground before hacking up in heavy conditions in the Tolworth Hurdle, shaping as if he’d stay the trip with ease but disappointed when only second to Aikman at Huntingdon last time and others preferred.
Ohio Gold: Has run well on most hurdles starts, especially when running on hard after being squeezed up before the last on his most previous start ; Well beaten in trial here last time.
Oscars Well: Nearly foot perfect over hurdles, having slammed the opposition by 9 lengths on his first try at this trip, and then going on to win Grade 1 event by similar margin at Navan; Then bolted up in Deloitte novice hurdle, beating Zaidpour with ease but 5 lengths basically on bridle; Has to prove he will handle the better ground but if he does so than one to beat.
Rock On Ruby: Very progressive three time bumper winner who fairly slammed a useful field first time out over hurdles at Newbury, leading into and out of the mist (Grade 1 second Megastar beaten 6 lengths, and a previous 15 length winner well back in third); Was being beaten by Bobs Worth when rider dropped whip but not without chances of reversing form in stronger race, and didn’t get the perfect trip last time.
So Young: Easy winner of ordinary 2m4f maiden hurdle on debut in December again faced weakish opposition when winning without being asked a serious question in a 2m novice event at Punchestown; Hard to assess but clearly talented and has to be taken as a serious contender here given stable’s record, whatever event he turns up in.
Tornado Bob: Thrashed by Kid Cassidy but has since won two of next three, making light work of easy soft ground tasks at Uttoxeter and Leicester; Posted much better form when only just going down to Sonofvic (last flight blunder cost him; giving away 3lbs); 27 lengths clear of the third in that race and must not be underestimated for an in – form team.
VERDICT: A very strong renewal, typical of the novice events at this year’s festival. There’s a lot of strength in depth to this field but it might pay to take it on trust that OSCARS WELL will handle quicker ground, his one poor effort on this surface having come when he was still very immature. So Young is rated as a likely winner by many, although First Lieutenant’s form entitles him to serious respect. Rock On Ruby and Tornado Bob are preferred of the rest.
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