Cheltenham Festival - Champion Chase

Cheltenham Festival (Day 2, Race 4)

Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.20)

Picks: Big Zeb (win) & Sizing Europe (each/way)

Big Zeb: Has always had talent to produce great performances (as he showed when he should have beaten Masterminded but for a horrible mistake at the last 2 years ago) and finally put it all together when winning 4 out of his 5 starts last year, capped off by a devastating six length win in this event last year; Has shown largely the same form this season in beating arch –rival Golden Silver; Finally suffered defeat to latter named opponent last time when outstayed on heavy ground (hit front too soon) but the one to beat back on better ground.

 Captain Cee Bee: Hasn't had much luck since landing the Grade 1 Supreme Novices' Hurdle in 08’ but obviously top class and put together a slick round of jumping when winning Champion Novices Chase at Punchestown, salvaging a deserved success from his debut chasing season after a very poor round of jumping (admittedly with a burst blood vessel) led to an 8th place finish in the Arkle; Made light work of easy return in the Poplar Square Chase but jumped as if something amiss when last of four in the Dial- a - Bet Chase and while return to better ground should bring about change in fortunes, jumping hasn’t been up to test so far.

Cornas: Has had a very good season this year, winning Grade 3 on reappearance before two good runs in decent handicaps; Finally won again at Sandown two starts ago in good race for the grade but outclassed in Game Spirit and outclassed here.

French Opera: Had an incredible season last year, winning 5 out of his 6 races and coming desperately close second in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival (compensated with Grade 2 afterwards);Ran a shocker last time on seasonal reappearance but put that right when bolting up in Game Spirit Chase last time and possible outsider here.

Golden Silver: Got the better of Arkle winner Forpadydeplaster in Irish Arkle before going off the boil for the rest of his novice runs; Has since made up into one of top Irish Chasers, winning this race a year ago before impressive successes in the Dan Moore Memorial and Boylesports Champion Chase at Punchestown Festival; Well beaten behind Big Zeb first time up and same story at Christmas, but finally got the better of that rival when outstaying him in the Tied Cottage Chase last time; Form is top notch and renewed tactics may work trick here even on good ground but Cheltenham record remains a big worry.

I’m So Lucky: Made rapid improvement last year culminating in career best Celebration Chase win; Probably just about bettered that with front running fourth in Tingle Creek here but flopped next time out at Ascot and outsider here.

Mad Max: Has made a very solid start to life over fences, and was running a big race until a crashing error two out in the Arkle; Appeared to be suited by longer trips when hacking up at Aintree, but weak finishes in the Paddy Power and December Gold Cup give impression that drop back to this trip would suit; Failed to cut little, if any ice in the Victor Chandler Chase last time and up against it.

Masterminded: Has proven truly outstanding in 2 mile chases, putting up one of great modern displays when cruising home in 2008 renewal and proving dominant for best part of year since; Rib injury was thought to be reason behind below par reappearance in Connaught Chase last year and was widely expected to be Champion Chaser for third time, but never able to get in race from 2 out (quick ground blamed); Had wind op and looked back to best when romping home in Amilin 1965 Chase, confirming that impression when trashing 5 reopposing rivals in Tingle Creek (rearranged here);Made to work far harder to hold on at death in Victor Chandler from Somsersby but showed that he wouldn’t shirk a battle when grinding it out; Ruby Walsh back on board today and major chance.

Sizing Europe: Recouped his former promise (should have won 2008 Champion Hurdle) over fences last season, completing a stunning 5 timer in the Arkle; Hasn’t won since but not for lack of class, the step up to open company just proving too much and in retrospect he faced a near impossible task trying to beat Kauto Star at Down Royal; Little disappointing when travelling well on return only to be well beaten third behind Big Zeb and Golden Silver; Strong pace here again will help as will switch back to good ground and not discounted even if it takes a leap of faith to be with him having been beaten so far last time.

 Somersby: Impressed on 4 starts novice chasing last season, winning Henry the II Chase in supremly impressive style and running second in the Arkle and at Aintree afterwards; Disappointing that he couldn’t win the Haldon Gold Cup off very favourable weight first time out even allowing for fact he should improve for strong 2m round here and fitness (very strong pace in Haldon Gold Cup tested that); Ran on from miles back to be third in the Tingle Creek, and even better when pushing Masterminded all the way in Victor Chandler at Ascot last time; Set to go very close although he will have to face much tougher fields than he’s been contesting previously.

Woolcombe Folly: Has a tremendous strike rate overall (won eight of last nine) and over fences (four of last five) and put himself in the big picture by not only winning very good handicap off topweight but running faster time than Masterminded’s Tingle Creek in process; Hasn’t been seen since thanks to bad scope but probably up to this class anyway and worth a big chance.

VERDICT: A quality renewal. The consistency of BIG ZEB gets him the vote to retain his title over Masterminded. He’s only been beaten once since romping home in this last year and has retained all ability during the last 12 months, and whatever beats him wins the race. Masterminded is the biggest threat, having given a very convincing case to suggest that he’s back to his  best following a wind op. Wherever he is in your calculations Somersby must be given equal thought as well but it’s worth remembering that SIZING EUROPE beat him in last year’s Arkle and given the record of winner from that race he’s worth sticking in to get a sneaky place or even better. Woolcombe Folly is a major threat.