5:35 Meydan
Dubai World Cup (Group 1) (AWT) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner $20,866,983
Fly Down: Best of the rest when third to Blame and Zenyatta in truly epic Breeders’ Cup Classic last year, and high class on dirt on all other starts; Had a rather tough task giving weight all round in Donn Handicap on seasonal reappearance although effort still disappointing and all chance depends on whether he can translate that dirt form to synthetics; Has his chance but others preferred.
Montrerosso: Made truly amazing progression for Mark Johnston, having begun the season with a pair of all-weather victories in January and February, before taking better handicaps and then romping away with King Edward VII Stakes; Unable to continue that progression until winning City of Gold stakes last time; Drop in trip and rise in class may put paid to his chances.
Prince Bishop: Very progressive for Andre Fabre last year, moving from small field conditions races to taking a group race on Arc Day; Made perfectly satisfactory comeback when fifth behind Twice Over and Musir but not good enough yet to be winning this.
Cape Blanco: Built on unbeaten juvenile season with thoroughly progressive campaign as a 3 year old, beating Workforce in Dante and then when second in King George, not to mention Landing the Irish Derby and Irish Champion Stakes, trashing high class field; Couldn’t handle the soft ground in the Arc but that effort easily forgiven and massive contender; unlikely to fail on score of fitness if sent here, has decent draw, bred to be OK on this surface and tactically versatile.
Gio Ponti: Got second win of relatively disappointing 2010 season (in comparison with penultimate year, when he was second only to Zenyatta in Breeders’ Cup Classic) when cosy winner of Shadwell Turf Mile; Second to Goldikova in Breeders’ Cup Mile was cracking effort and with pace likely to be better here, given solid chance.
Victoire Pisa: Came very close to doing the double in the Japanese 2,000 Guineas and Derby, and has improved majorly again since; Reversed placings with Buena Vista over 1 furlong further (had been nearly two lengths behind subsequently demoted horse in Japan Cup) in Arima Kinen; Made short work of his prep and of interest here, looking as if trip will suit.
Musir: Won all three starts in UAE on Tapeta last year (including UAE 2,000 Guineas and Derby) and has shaped if retaining at least all that ability when second behind Skysurfers and Twice Over on two seasonal runs; First effort forgiven but looked short of answers when behind Twice Over and although he’s capable of taking this, he’s passed over here.
Gitano Hernando: Progressed well in 2009, culminating in Goodwood Stakes win at Sanita Anita: Only run 3 times since, and was disappointing when only sixth in last year’s renewal (considering that he missed BCC to prep for it); Efforts since suggest ability still well there, although he’s been well behind Twice Over the last two times the pair have met.
Transcend: Shown a lot of improvement recently to with wins in Grade 1 company in Japan Cup Dirt and in February Stakes last time, showing good attitude; Will have it very tough to outrun field of this quality on this surface but shouldn’t put it past him given his improvement and quality.
Poet’s Voice: Realised potential last season despite failing to settle in many races, only just edging out Rip Van Winkle in QE11; Didn’t settle, so didn’t stay in Champion Stakes; Showed ability till there when chasing home Wigmore Hall latest; Could take big hand but he’ll have to be world class to beat this lot and worry he might not settle if things slow down.
Richard’s Kid: Triple Grade 1 winner in USA last year when trained by Bob Baffert but seemed tactically awkward compromised by being held up off steady pace and never able to land a blow in this race last year; Disappointing UAE when down the field behind Twice Over last time and while better for that will need a blinding gallop here and has a lot to do to make impact.
Twice Over: Always shown high class level of form but was transformed by 2 confidence boosters 2009 Champion Stakes and then coming third in Breeders Cup Classic; Continued in same vein of form last year, with an unlucky Prince Of Wales’s Second behind Byword being made up for with win in Eclipse: Showed good from when close second behind Rip Van Winkle (International) and Cape Blanco (Irish Champion Stakes) and really quite easy winner of Champion in 2010; Massively impressive on return here when easily getting better of Musir and strong favourite here.
Buena Vista: Incredibly high class in Japan; Five-time Grade 1 winner and only just failed to catch Dar Re Mi when second in Sheema Classic last year (would have won but for 200 yds more); Had Victoire Pisa back in third when passing post in front (subsequently disqualified for causing interference) in Japan Cup so surprising to see placings reversed last time out but given seven lengths to make up in last furlong, while winner had clear advantage; Can reverse placings, and one of world’s best horses so no surprise to see her win, but suspicion is that strong gallop is needed and will need to be at best; Booking of Ryan Moore is major positive.
Golden Sword: Has shown a large amount of improvement for switch to hold up tactics this season, only finding trip too short on seasonal debut before taking handicap/conditions event in fluent fashion; Turned a lot of heads when breaking track record recently but that may have been due to pace and this different test entirely; Not discounted but has to show a lot more than of late.
VERDICT: A high class renewal of the world’s richest contest; A race fully deserving of the title with top class runners from 6 countries all with strong claims. It’s very hard to fault Twice Over’s claims; He should have a better pace to run at this year than last with Prince Bishop, Montersso and Transcend in the line – up and The latter named has genuine prospects but outrunning a field of this quality on Tapeta may well be near impossible. The best horse in the race may well be CAPE BLANCO and if he’s sent here then presumably fitness won’t be a problem if he’s been sent for this event. He's got the ability to win this if fit and the stronger the go, the better for him. The consistency and class of BUENA VISTA gives her massive each/way appeal at the prices. She’s the best horse in Japan by a mile and with a strong pace, she won’t be far away.
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